Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: The support the NPP received across the country in overcoming the ethnic and religious divide, a prime factor that influenced electoral politics in Sri Lanka since independence in 1948, was a reflection of people’s desire for unity in times of economic adversity. The onus, therefore, is on the new government in Sri Lanka to utilise the historic opportunity to promote an inclusive government. 

Sri Lanka witnessed a political shift after the Presidential elections in November this year. The victory of JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake in the Presidential elections showed public discontent with older political parties and their leadership, such as the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the United National Party (UNP), whom the electorate believed were responsible for Sri Lanka’s present economic situation. The political shift has been consolidated with the result of Parliamentary elections, in which the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP) (a broad left coalition comprising 21 partner organisations and political parties) once again got the people’s mandate to run the country for the next five years. 

The NPP, for the first time in history, secured a two-thirds majority (159 seats, including the National List seats) in the 225-member Parliament under proportional representation, winning 21 of 22 electoral districts and securing 61% of the votes polled. The Sajit-Premadasa-headed SJB secured 40 seats and emerged as the second-largest party in the house. The former President Ranil-Wickramasinghe-led New Democratic Front (NDF) won five seats; the minority parties, such as the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK or Federal Party) and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), secured eight and three seats, respectively. The Rajapaksa-led SLPP could managed three seats, and for the first time in the last 15years, the party reduced to a single-digit number at the Parliament. The most striking outcome of the Parliamentary elections is the support the NPP received from the minority electorate comprising Sri Lankan Tamils, Hill country Tamils and Muslims in the Eastern and Northern provinces of Sri Lanka. The support the NPP received across the country in overcoming the ethnic and religious divide, a prime factor that influenced electoral politics in Sri Lanka since independence in 1948, was a reflection of people’s desire for unity in times of economic adversity. The onus, therefore, is on the new government in Sri Lanka to utilise the historic opportunity to promote an inclusive government. 

Shift in Trust for National Unity? 

The NPP’s performance in the Parliamentary elections indicates it gained the trust of minority community of Sri Lanka. A few factors helped the JVP-led NPP gain the confidence of the minority electorate. In the run-up to the elections, the JVP softened its majoritarian party image and reached out to the minority community with a conciliatory note, emphasising inclusive governance. It also expressed interest in forming a National Unity Government comprising representatives from Tamil and Muslim minority parties.[i]The President, during his campaign in the north of Sri Lanka, promised to end the prolonged detention of Tamil political prisoners and release the lands that have been confiscated by governmental agencies, regardless of the reason for previous acquisitions.[ii] The President also promised to conduct Provincial Council elections within a year after coming to power, followed by local council elections. The NPP leadership indicated that it is willing to explore a viable mechanism other than the current 13^th amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka (that entails the merger of the North and East provinces of Sri Lanka and significant devolution of powers to the provinces, including the police and land powers), to protect the rights of the Tamil community within Sri Lanka.[iii]

Traditional minority parties’ failure to address specific economic and political demands of the community and friction within the Tamil polity also alienated a significant number of Tamils from the main leadership in the post-war years. Some of these factors have helped the NPP gain traction among the Tamil electorate. For example, the seats won by the NPP in the Jaffna electoral district in the North are an important departure from the past, as the Tamil-dominated north always preferred Tamil politicians to represent the community in the Parliament. In the Jaffna district, the Tamil party, the ITAK, secured only one seat. In the last 15 years, after the war ended between the government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE in 2009, the Tamil minority has been waiting for a political solution and reconciliation that is acceptable and which can help restore their dignity and rights as equal citizens of the country. The devolution of power to the provinces, restoration of land rights, demilitarisation, accountability to war crimes and repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) are long-pending demands of the community. Even in the Muslim-dominated Eastern province, the NPP secured a commanding lead.[iv]

Sri Lanka is yet to address the complex issues of accountability and reconciliation. The present leadership rejected the draft resolution tabled at the United Nations Human Rights Council in October 2024, seeking an extension of the mandate of Resolution 51/1 on promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka[v]. Sri Lanka has been opposing the external evidence-gathering mechanisms on war crimes that have been established within the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) through the above resolution. Instead, it emphasised that it prefers to address human rights and reconciliation through domestic processes and in line with international obligations[vi]. Will the government work on establishing a domestic mechanism in the future, involving all stakeholders remains to be seen? The newly formed cabinet has two Tamil ministers but no Muslim representation, which has raised questions among the community. Whether the government will strive for genuine inclusivity by addressing some of these demands is to be seen in the future. 

The Outlook of the New Government on Current Issues

Soon after assuming office, the President dissolved the Parliament and called for Parliamentary elections to secure a majority in the Parliament, which was dominated by the Rajapaksa-backed political party, the SLPP. The majority in Parliament is a must for the ruling coalition, the NPP, to implement various promises made in the election manifesto. The victory of NPP in the Parliamentary elections held on 14 November 2024, therefore, is expected to bring significant economic and political changes at the domestic level and address the issue of corruption, lack of transparency and accountability in government functioning along with economic recovery and economic justice. The President has appointed a 21-member Cabinet of Ministers and defence, finance and economic development and the digital economy will be managed by the President himself. 

In his speech delivered at the first session of the 10thParliament, the President touched upon issues the new government is planning to implement. He emphasised the importance of multiparty democracy and building national unity by not allowing the resurgence of divisive racist politics and any form of religious extremism. Restoring the dignity of Parliament, creating a satisfactory public service, restoring the supremacy of the rule of law and delivering justice to the victims of crimes and corruption are other issues the President mentioned in his speech.[vii]

On the most important issue of stabilisation of the economy, the Anura Kumara Dissanayake led government is planning to go ahead with the parameters agreed upon with the International Monitory Fund (IMF) since the previous government had already reached an agreement with the IMF with bilateral donors for debt restructuring and a preliminary agreement with International Sovereign Bond Holders. Therefore, the President has insisted that the new government is not able to change many of the terms agreed upon in the last two years. In the meantime, the new government reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF after the third review, which will pave the way for the release of the next tranche of $333 million. During the third review meeting with the IMF on 22 November 2024, the President urged the IMF to maintain a balanced approach that considers the hardships faced by citizens. For decades, Sri Lanka, though a developing country has maintained high Human Development Index due to various welfare measures, implemented by the state, such as free education, health and food subsidies, etc[viii]. The JVP in power will have to carry this forward, as expected by the people of Sri Lanka, at a time when the austerity measures proposed by the IMF and other international financial organisations to repay the debt, have hit the livelihood of many. Will the JVP-NPP government find a way out of the austerity measures the IMF is expecting the government to implement to access the promised $3 billion deal in the coming months is a critical question. 

However, the new government believes that the existing framework to address the economic recovery is not sufficient to address the deep-seated crisis and promised to implement a new economic strategy centred on three pillars that include rapid growth and production in the goods and service sector across regions, making people participation an integral part of economic progress and ensuring fair distribution of economic benefits among people to discourage concentration of wealth in the hands of few.[ix]He assured that “under his leadership, social spending allocations would be utilised effectively with priority given to combating child poverty and malnutrition and providing better support for differently abled individuals.”[x]

The President’s policy statement also emphasised state intervention in the energy market and financial market and the rapid development of the tourism and IT sectors, leveraging the strategic location of the country to emerge as the maritime hub and bringing revolutionary change in the agriculture sector as important aspects for the rapid economic growth of Sri Lanka. By attracting four million tourists annually to Sri Lanka, the new government is planning to generate an $8 billion economy through the tourism sector. The IT market of Sri Lanka is relatively small, comprising 85,000 IT professionals with $1.2 billion in IT export income. The government promised to increase the number of professions to 200,000 and IT exports to $5 billion in the next few years.[xi]

In terms of foreign policy, the NPP manifesto promised a balanced, non-aligned foreign policy and promised to maintain a constructive, result-oriented relationship with powers like India, China and the USA. As the new government aims to implement various economic reforms that can attract investments, create local jobs and boost its trade, it will try to engage with global and regional powers in a more nuanced way. The government is trying to overhaul the diplomatic services and go beyond traditional diplomacy to assist Sri Lankan industries in finding and accessing global markets.[xii]

Conclusion

The people of Sri Lanka have given a mandate to the JVP-led NPP to take bold decisions and steer the country from the economic and political uncertainties of the last two years. By adapting to the evolving economic and political realities of Sri Lanka, the JVP-led NPP managed to secure people’s trust and confidence to run the country. The two-thirds majority received by the NPP, in the absence of challenging and fragile opposition in the Parliament, provides ample opportunities to implement economic and political reforms, which can address the root causes of the problem plaguing the country for long. The enactment of a new constitution, abolition of the executive presidency, and other factors can reshape the political landscape of Sri Lanka if implemented, as promised, before the elections. There may be a few surprises in the coming months in terms of administrative decisions, but will the party use the mandate to correct the wrongs of the past while implementing the required reforms remains to be seen. For the time being, it seems that the economic distress has bridged the ethnic and political divide. The NPP victory across the country stands as testimony to this fact. It also faces the challenge of sustaining this unity.

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*Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] “NPP ready for national unity govt. with MPs representing Tamil, Muslim communities, “November 11, 2024, https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/NPP-ready-for-national-unity-govt-with-MPs-representing-Tamil-Muslim-communities/108-295681. Accessed on 12 November 2024.

[ii]Tamil Guardian, “What does Sri Lanka's NPP-majority government mean for Tamils?”November 15, 2024, https://www.tamilguardian.com/content/what-does-sri-lankas-npp-majority-government-mean-tamils. Accessed on 16 November 2024.

[iii]Rasika Somarathna, “New NPP Govt will not do away with Provincial Councils,” November 17, 2024, https://www.sundayobserver.lk/2024/11/17/news/38060/new-npp-govt-will-not-do-away-with-provincial-councils/. Accessed on 18 November 2024.

[iv]Fareez Farook, “Turning The Tide: Anura’s Ascent & The People’s Mandate, “November 18, 2024, https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/turning-the-tide-anuras-ascent-the-peoples-mandate/. Accessed on 20 November 2024.

[v]“Sri Lanka rejects draft resolution adopted at UNHRC, decries external mechanism,” October 10,2024, https://www.ft.lk/news/Sri-Lanka-rejects-draft-resolution-adopted-at-UNHRC-decries-external-mechanism/56-767778. Accessed on 12 November 2024.

[vi] Ibid

[vii]President’s Media Division, Government of Sri Lanka, “The Full Speech Delivered by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the Inauguration of the First Session of the Tenth Parliament, “November 21, 2024, https://pmd.gov.lk/news/the-full-speech-delivered-by-president-anura-kumara-dissanayake-at-the-inauguration-of-the-first-session-of-the-tenth-parliament/. Accessed on 24 November 2024

[ix]Ibid

[x]President’s Media Division, Government of Sri Lanka, “President Dissanayake Urges IMF to Strike a Balance in Economic Recovery Program,”November 18, 2024, https://pmd.gov.lk/news/president-dissanayake-urges-imf-to-strike-a-balance-in-economic-recovery-program/. Accessed on 20 November 2024.

[xi]President’s Media Division, Government of Sri Lanka, “The Full Speech Delivered by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the Inauguration of the First Session of the Tenth Parliament,”November 21, 2024, https://pmd.gov.lk/news/the-full-speech-delivered-by-president-anura-kumara-dissanayake-at-the-inauguration-of-the-first-session-of-the-tenth-parliament/. Accessed on 24 November 2024.

[xii]Ibid