Indian Council of World Affairs

Distinguished Experts, Students and Friends!

Prof. Warikoo’s book ‘The Crossroads: Kashmir-India’s Bridge to Xinjiang’ deals with trade and connectivity on one hand and the Anglo-Russian Great Game and intense machinations for influence on the other.

2.  Trade and connectivity have historically been critical issues in International Relations. History has shown that the two have stuck to each other like Velcro – leading to friendly civilizational connect somewhere and wars, strife and empire building elsewhere.

3.  An example of the latter category is the Great Game in Eurasia along the Silk Route of the previous centuries. The Great Game was about trade coming to be used as a pretext for, first, political interference and, then, gaining political and territorial control. Trade was the raison d’etre of the Great Game; suspicion, intrigue, duplicity, conspiracies underpinned the chess-like moves of the Great Game players.

4.  I take the example of Great Game and colonization. World history is however replete with examples where trade has led to hostilities, conflicts, empires and oppression.

5.  We thought that that era was over.

6.  However, in the backdrop of the current geopolitics and global tumult, the reappearance of Great Game 2.0 is being cited showing that colonial-era undercurrents still find sway. Analysts are seeing a reflection of the conflictual aspects of trade and connectivity in the sharpening US-China strategic rivalry, trade and tariff wars, a deadlocked WTO amidst eroding trust and in China’s global initiatives especially the Belt & Road Initiative. Needless to add, trade conflicts, connectivity calculus and geopolitics make for a heady mix.

7.  Today’s Sino-US rivalry, and its manifestation in different theatres of the world and in the overall trend of weaponization of trade, is a present day extension of the colonial era trade wars. We need to acknowledge this and take firm steps to negate these attitudes and tendencies.

8.  Drawing advantage from the current geopolitical tumult, we need to craft a New World Order; an Order which turns history around and incorporates trade as a positive and beneficial force that promotes peace. Can we do it?

9.  It goes without saying that we don’t need a Great Game 2.0.

10.  Lessons from the Great Game, from colonization and from previous centuries do not tell us to downgrade trade in international politics; instead they tell us about its significance and immense potential if harnessed the right way. Trade is important. It is a tool for inter-country, inter-regional and inter-civilizational intercourse. Trade is inter-dependence in operation. Trade will continue to be a salient feature of the International Order in the foreseeable future.

11.  It is critical, however, that the New World Order about which I just mentioned should deploy trade as a handmaiden of improved living, a harbinger for prosperity for all, a tool for development, rather than the forerunner of wars and conflict as we see it today both in the historical and contemporary context. Cooperative, transparent and trust-based approaches are of course a necessary prerequisite.

12.  I think there are UN Resolutions linking trade to peace and security. Trade and security linkages exist in WTO too. These need to be revisited.

13.  A word about Kashmir and Xinjiang. The importance of overland connectivity, trade and cross-border community ties is lost on no one. However, geopolitics of the ‘all-weather’ Sino-Pak nexus since India’s independence have excluded the possibility of a peaceful periphery for India and Kashmir’s relations with Xinjiang remain estranged.

14.  Moreover, China’s actions give us no respite. BRI is a reincarnation of a hegemonic outlook along the silk route and attitudes seeking to build spheres of influence reminiscent of the Great Game era to India’s detriment; only this time the hegemon is China. CPEC reflects a steep sharpening of the attitudes that were earlier reflected in the establishment of the Karakoram Highway, as also stated in this Book, forcing India to take positions on the issue that it has.

15.  Prof. Warikoo hails from Kashmir and has dedicated his life to the study of Eurasian, Himalayan and Central Asian regions. His is a unique perspective. He told me that this book encapsulates thirty years of his work and understanding. I look forward to an engaging discussion on this well-researched book. I wish the panellists all the best.

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