Indian Council of World Affairs

On 19 March 2025, Turkish police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, who belongs to the Republican People’s Party[i](RPP), following a court order to send him to jail for bribery, money laundering, corruption, extortion and particularly, his alleged support for the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK). RPP called the arrest of İmamoğlu a “coup against our next president.” İmamoğlu has been Istanbul’s mayor since 2019, and his continuous victory in 2024 dealt a significant blow to Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, which held Istanbul’s mayoral post for more than 25 years. Following his arrest, İmamoğlu was removed from the mayoral post. Calling the arrest a threat to Turkish democracy, İmamoğlu tweeted on X that “we will, hand in hand, uproot this blow, this black stain on our democracy. I am standing tall, I will not bow down.”[ii] Critics argued that the arrest of İmamoğlu was a political move of the current government under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to remove any threat to his re-election in the scheduled 2028 Presidential election. However, Erdoğan needs to amend the constitution to become eligible to contest the presidential election for a third term, as it bars him from running for more than two terms in office. Many believe that Erdoğan has managed the judiciary to amend the law and will call for an early election. Earlier, on 18 March, Istanbul University officials also annulled İmamoğlu’s university degree which is a basic requirement for filing nomination for the presidential election. The news of İmamoğlu’s arrest spread like wildfire, sparking enormous protests across the country on 20 March against arbitrary detention. Since then, the epicenter of the protest has been Sarachane Square, where Istanbulites have gathered in large numbers to demand justice and democracy in Türkiye. İmamoğlu’s hometown, Trabzon, has also witnessed the crowd marching through the street holding masks of İmamoğlu’s face; interestingly, Erdoğan also has roots in this town, and the growing popularity of İmamoğlu in his heartland is also increasing his concern about losing in the ballot. The widespread support for İmamoğlu has compounded, as is evident from the Presidential Primary vote in which close to 15 million Turkish citizens voted for his candidacy, organised by the RPP on 24 March 2025. The gigantic popular support that İmamoğlu received following his arbitrary arrest has exposed the growing weakness of Erdoğan’s popularity and legitimacy to rule. 

İmamoğlu’s arrest exploded the protest brewing for many years inside the country. The protest symbolises the growing disenchantment of the Turkish citizens against the ruling establishment’s failure in the following sectors: first, the escalation of the economic crisis due to the high inflation, currency depreciation, unemployment and the high cost of living. Second, changing political dynamics led to the opposition’s success in the municipal elections in March 2024. The RRP successfully secured victories in 35 of 81 municipalities’ seats. It won mayoral races in Türkiye’s five largest cities: Ankara, Antalya, Istanbul, Izmir and Bursa. Election observers considered this the most severe electoral defeat for Erdoğan in the past two decades. The shift of the voters was caused by factors, including voters’ dissatisfaction, economic challenges and the opposition’s strategic alliances. Also, there is a steady erosion of democracy, which is evident from the observers’ allegations that the judiciary, media and political opposition are under immense pressure from the security-police establishments of the government. Third, Turks also showed their dismay towards Erdoğan’s policy of hosting Syrian refugees when the country’s economy was already under immense pressure and not able to contain the inflation and higher food prices. Fourth, the political polarisation based on the division between secularists and conservatives remains another critical issue that heightened the resentment towards the current Turkish government. It means that Türkiye has been sharply divided between pro- Erdoğan and anti-Erdogan camps. Fifth, critics consider Erdoğan’s foreign policy aggressive and unpredictable, resulting in political, diplomatic and economic dissatisfaction, leading to dissatisfaction amongst the masses thereby further eroding his legitimacy. These factors compounded the frustration of the people in the country that challenged Erdoğan’s legitimacy, and the only road to sustaining his rule was through the implementation of authoritarian measures. 

The Turkish Government’s Responses to the Protest 

Erdoğan’s government denied the allegations that the arrest is politically motivated, insisting that Türkiye’s courts are independent. The pro-government news outlet, Daily Sabah, also wrote an editorial stating that the “CHP and government critics must come up with answers to the ‘serious allegations’ against İmamoğlu. Erdoğan accused the CHP’s leadership of “turning the party into an apparatus to absolve a handful of municipal robbers who have become blinded by the money.” Also, the government blamed the opposition for “sinking the economy” due to its support to the protest. The comment came when the opposition called for the boycott of the companies allegedly supporting President Erdoğan. 

The government has tightened the security measures to contain the protest. Istanbul has witnessed the most significant deployment of security and police forces since the Gezi Park protest in 2013, which the government claimed it was required to maintain “public order.” The government sought to order the closure of hundreds of social media accounts of journalists and political figures on X, which are pro-İmamoğlu. The Turkish Ministry of Interior alleged that it has found more than hundreds of social media accounts suspected of inciting hatred.[iii]It has also flooded pro-government news channels and print media with leaks to prove that İmamoğlu is guilty.[iv] Notably, social media is a significant source of mobilising the people. Therefore, the government suspended the social media accounts to contain the demonstrators’ strategy and “diffusion” of the protest. Besides, the government banned the protest march. Nevertheless, it could not stop the protestors from demonstrating in cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. 

Several Turkish media outlets, including the Media and Law Studies Association, have reported that at least eight journalists have been detained for covering the protest and many of the journalists faced violence unleashed by the security forces. So far, more than 1400 protestors have been arrested in Türkiye. Targeting journalists not associated with the government shows that the ruling establishment favours restricting the information and communication to contain the protest. However, the more the Turkish government employs restrictive measures to contain the information, the closer it gets to authoritarian governance. 

Reactions to İmamoğlu’s Arrest 

International human rights advocacy groups, including Amnesty International, called İmamoğlu’s arrest a “wider crackdown on political opposition, free speech and press freedom.” The Council of Europe stated that the “arrest of İmamoğlu marks all the hallmarks of the pressure on a political figure who is one of the main candidates of the next presidential election.”[v]

Apart from the European Union, the countries in the region, including France and Germany, also raised their concerns regarding the arbitrary arrest of İmamoğlu. The EU-Türkiye Joint Parliamentary Committee postponed its meeting after the EU considered that the current circumstances were not conducive to the meeting. In addition, the UN has also condemned the arrest of İmamoğlu and several protestors and the use of force by the police to disperse the protestors.

The Arab countries did not make official statements on the ongoing situation in Türkiye. However, Greece has expressed its concern regarding the undermining of the “rule of law” and “civil liberties.”[vi]American President Donald Trump praised President Erdoğan for his leadership in the country on 25 March 2025, which shows that Trump endorsed Turkish President amidst the ongoing political turmoil in the country.

Conclusion

The arrest of presidential candidate İmamoğlu has increased the concerns over the declining values of democracy and freedom in Türkiye. İmamoğlu’s two consecutive victories in the Istanbul mayor post have threatened the longevity of Erdoğan’s rule; he once stated, “If you win Istanbul, you win the country,” which echoes his fear and discomfort with the presidential candidacy of İmamoğlu. The popular dissatisfaction towards Erdoğan’s domestic and foreign policies is immense and that was evident in the municipal elections in 2024. The government has termed the protest as “street terror” and is determined to dismantle it with the help of security and police forces. The government’s efforts to de-legitimise the protestors have fuelled the common Turks to further extend their support to it. The ongoing protest has widened the divisions between Turks and government machineries which is isolating the former from the latter and hence creating a trust deficit in Turkish society. The division is also paving the way for the rise of the military again as the guardian of the republic to manage the political chaos. As the protestors remained steadfast in their determination to continue the protest, as long as İmamoğlu is not released, the government is rapidly losing ground to the scenario evident in Egypt and Tunisia in 2011.

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*Dr. Arshad, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes  

[i] It is Kemalist and social democratic party in Türkiye. Its Turkish acronym is Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP.

[ii] Ekram Imamgolu’s X Account,accessed https://x.com/imamoglu_int?lang=bn, March 27, 2025.

[iii]“Jailed Imamgolu elected Turkish Opposition’s Presidential Candidates,” Al-Jazeera, March 24, 2025, accessed https://tinyurl.com/4hrmp8p7, March 27, 2025.

[iv]Ben Hubbard, “What We Know about the Turmoil in Turkiye,” The New York Times, March 24, 2025, accessed https://tinyurl.com/2vt74r6d, March 27, 2025.

[v]Selin Girit, Toby Luckhurst and Hafsa Khalil, “Protest erupts in Turkiye after Erdogan’s rival arrested,” BBC News, March 20, 2025, accessedhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yren8mxp8o, March 27, 2025.

[vi]“Greece finds situation in Turkiye Worrying,” IPOTNEWS, March 24, 2025, accessed https://tinyurl.com/52bde7vs, March 27, 2025.