Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: With the election of Joseph Aoun as the 14^th President of Lebanon and formation of the new government, the Mediterranean nation faces a task of reconstruction and economic recovery amidst the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the region. 

Introduction 

On 9 January 2025, Lebanon elected its 14^th President, Joseph Aoun, the former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This marks the end of a years-long political stalemate and the presidential vacuum in the country.^[i] Twelve unsuccessful attempts were made in the past two years to elect a president after the former president Michel Aoun’s tenure ended in 2022. Negotiations over his successor were unsuccessful, reinvigorating tensions between the country’s pro-Western and pro-Iranian camps.^[ii]

Four prominent candidates were left for the presidency after Sleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marda Party, who was backed by Hezbollah, withdrew his candidacy in favour of Joseph Aoun, hoping that former PM Najib Mikati would be appointed as Prime Minister. These included Joseph Aoun, the former army commander of the Lebanese armed forces; Jihad Azour, who currently serves as the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund; Elias Bayssari, who serves as the acting Director of the General Security in Lebanon and Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese forces, a strong republic Parliamentary Bloc with the largest number of members in the Parliament. He was one of the vocal critics of Hezbollah.

This election marked a shift in the political landscape of Lebanon, as President Joseph Aoun garnered considerable support from the West, especially the United States and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, unlike previous appointments, which were Hezbollah^[iii] and Iran-backed. Since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, one of the key allies of Hezbollah, and the continued bombardment from Israel on key strongholds of the group, the group’s stance is said to have been weakened both externally and internally, mainly due to the losses suffered, including the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah,^[iv] the long-time leader of Hezbollah. In this context, this viewpoint assesses Lebanese elections, providing a brief background and their impact on Lebanese politics. It also analyses the outcome of the elections in the context of the changing regional and global geopolitics. 

Background to the Presidential Elections 2025 

Lebanon has a “confessional system,”^[v] a type of consociationalism, which is the proportional sharing of power between the countries’ different religious sects. The country’s religious landscape is diverse, with various sects, including the Maronite Christians, Druze (an ethno-religious monotheistic community), Shias, Sunnis, Greeks and a small Jewish community. After the 1975–90 civil war,^[vi] which devastated the country, the political structure of Lebanon was reformed through the “Taif accord” in 1989. This Accord established a structure for fair political representation of all various Lebanese sects (according to the population of each sect) through a system of power-sharing in contrast to the previous French mandate favouring the Maronites. According to this system, the President should be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the Parliament should be a Shia. 

In this context, Lebanon held its last general elections in May 2022.^[vii] However, the newly formed National Assembly failed to elect a President twelve times as mentioned above, and as a result, the caretaker government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati was running the country.^[viii] The elections that were held in January 2025 thus marked progress in the political landscape of the country towards stability and prospects for the revival of the economy. This election holds immense significance since it took place in the backdrop of the Israel-Gaza conflict. The country has faced enormous destruction resulting in losses estimated in billions of dollars across various sectors since Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fires in October 2023. A ceasefire has been in place since 27 November 2024.^[ix]

The ceasefire has considerably facilitated the election since it brought a halt to the destruction and hostilities because of which the process could take place smoothly. After the ceasefire, there was considerable external pressure on the Lebanese caretaker government to fill the presidential vacuum to initiate the reforms and reconstruction of the country.^[x]

Decoding Joseph Aoun’s Path to the Presidency

In the first round of voting, lawmakers from the pro-Hezbollah bloc had voted blank, leaving Joseph Aoun short of the required two-thirds majority to win outright. However, Aoun secured 99 votes from the 128-seat parliament to win the presidency in the second round of voting.“A new phase in the history of Lebanon begins today,” 60-year-old Aoun told the chamber after he was sworn in, signalling a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, one that Hezbollah did not anticipate.

General Joseph Aoun, who won the elections and was among the most popular candidates for the seat and garnered considerable support from Gulf states like UAE, Saudi Arabia and the US.^[xi] The Democratic Gathering Bloc and other independent Members of Parliament vocally announced their support for him, including the Christian opposition, especially the largest Christian Bloc – Lebanese Forces led by Samir Farid Geagea, the Phalange Party led by Samy Gemayel and the Marada Movement led by Sleiman Frangieh. He has also been a vocal critic of the policies of the Lebanese politicians during the 2021 financial crisis. His popularity and notable contributions, which earned him the backing of Washington and Riyadh, were key to his victory. This was despite his candidacy being opposed by the second-largest Christian Bloc – The Free Patriotic Movement, which is led by Gebran Bassil. Bassil’s resistance to Joseph Aoun’s potential presidency arose from Aoun’s unwillingness to confront the October 17 demonstrators^[xii] fiercely and his refusal to capitulate to the demands of the Minister of Defence, who was aligned with Bassil. As a result, the Free Patriotic Movement found itself unable to amass enough popular and political backing to hinder the election process. Furthermore, the sentiments of the Christian populace swayed towards concluding the presidential stalemate and ushering in a sense of stability.^[xiii]

Implications of the Elections

Domestic Implications

After his successful election, the newly elected President, in consultation with the National Assembly of Lebanon, appointed the new Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam.^[xiv] He was also on the panel that heard the case brought up by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide. On 8 February, Salam named his 24-member cabinet, which is evenly split between the Christian and Muslim sects. Amidst the destruction that Lebanon has faced due to the war, Prime Minister Salam, in his recent remarks, has pledged that the new government would be one of “Salvation and Reforms.”^[xv] It indicates that the new government aims to rebuild trust with the international community after a devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and years of economic crisis due to corruption and mismanagement.

It is important to note that the Gaza war weakened Hezbollah, with the destruction of its key leadership resulting in no support for the Hezbollah-backed candidates in the election. The group supported the election of Joseph Aoun in hopes that the former Prime Minister Mikati would be appointed by the President and the National Assembly as the PM. Expressing disappointment at Nawaf Salam’s appointment as Prime Minister-designate, senior Hezbollah lawmaker Mohammed Raad accused its opponents of working for fragmentation and exclusion, stating that his group had “extended its hand” by supporting Aoun’s election only to find the “hand cut,” and warned that “any government at odds with coexistence has no legitimacy whatsoever.”^[xvi] This statement signifies that the new leadership would have to face opposition, as there is considerable clash of interests between them and Hezbollah.

In the latest formation of the government, the Amal Movement, a close ally of Hezbollah, was permitted to select four ministers, including the Finance Minister, Yassin Jaber. Notably, this government formation does not grant Hezbollah and its allies a “blocking third” veto power,^[xvii] limiting their ability to unilaterally obstruct government decisions. But the group may find other ways, such as to interfere in key decisions of the new leadership. ^[xviii]Washington’s Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus had stated in a meeting previously with the Lebanese President after his election that the US does not want Hezbollah’s role in the new government, sparking debate and outrage over its interference in the Lebanese election process.^[xix]

On 26 February 2025, the Lebanese Parliament passed a vote of confidence motion to the government with 95 votes in favour, 12 votes against and 4 abstentions; signalling trust in the new government.^[xx] The new leadership, including the Prime Minister and President, have emphasised deploying only the Lebanese Army along the borders and removing Hezbollah forces from the south as per the UN Resolution 1701. This resolution mandates the disarmament of armed groups and prohibits foreign forces inside the country without the government’s consent.^[xxi] In his first address on 11 February 2025, PM Nawaf Salam reiterated the demand for the Israeli army’s withdrawal from Lebanon by 18 February.

Regional and Global Support

The elections have not only reshaped the political landscape but have also significantly impacted the roles of regional and global powers in Lebanon’s reconstruction and economic revival. Since the US and Saudi Arabia consider Aoun as a stabilising figure who can restore trust in Lebanon’s institutions^[xxii], the new leadership is garnering support from them. A pro-Western approach may therefore be evident in the new leadership’s actions. The extent to which they address Lebanon’s needs and interests and the evolution of relations between the Trump administration and the new Lebanese leadership, remain to be seen. Recently, the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia visited Lebanon,^[xxiii] signalling support for the new leadership and its reform objectives. In addition, the President of the UAE offered support and discussed reopening the UAE Embassy in Lebanon, signalling stronger relations between the two countries.^[xxiv]

According to the finance minister of Lebanon, Yassine Jabar, who is part of the newly formed cabinet, the country seeks a financial package from the International Monetary Fund.^[xxv] Moreover, with a new administration in neighbouring Syria, he stated that the Lebanese government believed it had an opportunity to start a serious dialogue aimed at controlling and demarcating the borders and working to resolve the issue of displaced Syrians in Lebanon, signalling strengthening relations between the two countries.

Aoun also met the French President Emmanuel Macron on 17 January 2025 to discuss the revival of exploration of the oil reserves in the country, which could be a huge source of income for war-torn Lebanon.^[xxvi] This shows the regional and global support for the new leadership and its continued engagement with world leaders to revive the Lebanese economy. These developments could unlock significant aid, which is essential for the country’s reconstruction.

Conclusion

The 2025 Lebanese presidential elections mark a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, with Joseph Aoun as President and Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister. Their leadership, backed by Western and Gulf allies, signals a move away from Hezbollah’s influence, presenting both new challenges and opportunities for Lebanon. The government’s commitment to reforms, economic recovery and border security under UN Resolution 1701 reflects this. The formation of the new cabinet and the subsequent confidence vote in Parliament pave the way for Lebanon’s reconstruction and economic revival. However, the Israeli Defence Forces are yet to withdraw from areas in Lebanon which are in violation of the agreed ceasefire. Therefore, the leadership’s ability to balance domestic stability, given potential resistance from Hezbollah, and navigate geopolitical pressures will be crucial as Lebanon progresses in its post-crisis recovery and future governance.

*****

*Sugandhi, Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.  

End notes

[i]Qiblawi, Tamara. 2025. “US-Backed Army Chief Elected Lebanon’s President, Ending Years-Long Stalemate.” CNN. January 9, 2025. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/09/middleeast/joseph-aoun-elected-lebanon-president-intl/index.html.

[ii]Ibid.

[iii]BBC. 2023. “What Is Hezbollah in Lebanon and Will It Go to War with Israel?” Www.bbc.com, November 3, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67307858.

[iv]Al Jazeera Staff. 2024. “Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah Leader, Killed in Beirut in Israeli Strike.” Al Jazeera. September 28, 2024. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/28/hassan-nasrallah-hezbollah-leader-killed-in-beirut-in-israeli-strike.

[v]Confessionalism is a system of consociational government which distributes political and institutional power proportionally among religious sub-communities. Lebanon is a confessional state where, for example, positions in cabinet, parliament, the civil service and other institutions are apportioned according to the relative religious populations. “Understanding Lebanese Confessionalism.” 2007. CJPME - English. May 21, 2007. https://www.cjpme.org/fs_026.

[vi] Beyer, Greg. 2024. “The Lebanese Civil War: A Complex & Devastating Conflict.” TheCollector. July 11, 2024. https://www.thecollector.com/lebanese-civil-war-conflict/.

[vii]Ayman Halawi. 2024. “Political System and Authorities.” Lebanese Ministry of Information. 2024. https://www.ministryinfo.gov.lb/en/2658.

[viii]Reuters Staff. 2022. “Lebanon Fails to Elect President for Third Time amid Financial Meltdown.” Reuters, October 20, 2022. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-fails-elect-president-third-time-amid-financial-meltdown-2022-10-20/.

[ix]Marx, Willem. 2024. “Israel and Hezbollah Have a Ceasefire Agreement. Here’s What It Says.” NPR. November 28, 2024. https://www.npr.org/2024/11/28/g-s1-36146/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis.

[x]SAKHRI Mohamed. 2025. “Joseph Aoun’s Victory: Why Did the Election of a New President for Lebanon Succeed?” World Policy Hub. January 13, 2025. https://worldpolicyhub.com/joseph-aouns-victory-why-did-the-election-of-a-new-president-for-lebanon-succeed/.

[xi]Jazeera, Al. 2025a. “Lebanon Parliament Elects Army Chief Joseph Aoun as President.” Al Jazeera. January 9, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/9/lebanon-parliament-elects-army-chief-joseph-aoun-as-president.

[xii]Nashed, Justin Salhani,Mat. 2023. “‘Can’t Stay Silent Any More’: Rage in Lebanon over War on Gaza.” Www.aljazeera.com. July 19, 2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/19/cant-stay-silent-any-more-rage-in-lebanon-over-war-on-gaza.

[xiii]SAKHRI Mohamed. 2025. “Joseph Aoun’s Victory: Why Did the Election of a New President for Lebanon Succeed?” World Policy Hub. January 13, 2025. https://worldpolicyhub.com/joseph-aouns-victory-why-did-the-election-of-a-new-president-for-lebanon-succeed/.

[xiv]Gritten, David. 2025. “Nawaf Salam: ICJ President Named Lebanon’s New Prime Minister.” Bbc.com,  january 13, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2eg7ge72j2o.

[xv]Agence France-Presse. 2025. “‘Govt of Reform and Salvation’: Lebanon Announces New Administration.” Firstpost. February 8, 2025. https://www.firstpost.com/world/govt-of-reform-and-salvation-lebanon-announces-new-administration-13861232.html.

[xvi]Jazeera, Al. 2025. “Lebanon’s President Names ICJ Judge Nawaf Salam as PM-Designate.” Al Jazeera. January 13, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/13/nawaf-salam-wins-enough-backing-to-become-lebanons-prime-minister.

[xvii]In the Lebanese political system, the blocking third or one-third plus one rule allows a political group to prevent government decision-making and potentially topple the government.

[xviii]Ghaddar, Hanin. 2025. “Lebanon’s New Government May Walk a Thin Line between Promises and Compromises.” The Washington Institute. 2025. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/lebanons-new-government-may-walk-thin-line-between-promises-and-compromises?

[xix]2025b. “US Demands Hezbollah Be Omitted from Lebanon Government.” Al Jazeera. February 7, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/7/us-demands-hezbollah-be-omitted-from-lebanon-government.

[xx]“Lebanese Parliament Grants Confidence to PM Nawaf Salam’s Government with 95 Votes.” 2025. Al-Manar TV Lebanon. 2025. https://english.almanar.com.lb/2349943.

[xxi]Explained Desk. 2024. “What Is the UNSC Resolution 1701 upon Which the Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Is Based?” The Indian Express. November 27, 2024. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/resolution-1701-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-9693450/.

[xxii]“President Joseph Aoun’s Vision for Lebanon: Engaging Hezbollah and Iran amid Regional Shifts - Robert Lansing Institute.” 2025. Robert Lansing Institute. January 20, 2025. https://lansinginstitute.org/2025/01/20/president-joseph-aouns-vision-for-lebanon-engaging-hezbollah-and-iran-amid-regional-shifts/.

[xxiii]English, Al Arabiya. 2025. “Saudi Arabia Is Optimistic about Lebanon under Reforms, Saudi FM Says in Beirut.” Al Arabiya English. January 23, 2025. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2025/01/23/saudi-foreign-minister-arrives-in-lebanon-for-first-visit-in-almost-15-years.

[xxiv]Desk, Web. 2025. “‘UAE Embassy in Beirut to Reopen’: President Sheikh Mohamed, Lebanon’s Joseph Aoun Reach Agreement.” Khaleej Times. January 9, 2025. https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-sheikh-mohamed-congratulates-joseph-aoun-on-becoming-president-of-lebanon?_refresh=true.

[xxv]Bassam, Laila, and Tom Perry. 2025. “Exclusive: Lebanese Government to Seek New IMF Programme, Policy Statement Says.” Reuters, February 18, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanese-government-seek-new-imf-programme-policy-statement-says-2025-02-18/.

[xxvi]F, Dominic. 2025. “Bloomsbury Intelligence & Security Institute (BISI).” Bloomsbury Intelligence & Security Institute (BISI). February 13, 2025. https://bisi.org.uk/reports/lebanese-presidential-election.