Indian Council of World Affairs

Distinguished experts, members of the diplomatic corps, students and friends!

Welcome to the discussion on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), a country that remains reclusive and yet pivotal in shaping regional and global geopolitical dynamics. When we were curating this panel discussion, we decided to focus for a change only on DPRK rather than on the peace and security on the Korean Peninsula or on situation in North East Asia to provide more room to ponder on DPRK’s society, its politics and global role. We were also conscious of the fact that such a discussion might be constrained due to lack of primary sources of information.

The Imagery of DPRK and its Leadership

Let me begin by the imagery of DPRK in the media. The DPRK has been governed by the Kim dynasty whose portrayal in the media has varied across the world. The Western media has painted the regime as authoritarian, isolationist, somewhat cranky, a nuclear threat, projecting sensational narratives with selective focus on robotic military parades and intimidating missile tests shaping the dominant narrative of North Korea in the Western imagination.

In contrast, Russian media portrays DPRK as a traditional friend which can be trusted with Russian cooperation in strategic sectors. Chinese state media too provides a more pragmatic and sometimes sympathetic description of the regime. Kim Jong-un is depicted as a leader who ensured political continuity and national sovereignty through serious challenges to the state’s affairs.

It is this divergence in perspectives that underscores the geopolitical fault lines that frames North Korea’s global identity and its policy choices.

What we know about DPRK’s society and economy?

Over the years, DPRK’s society and economy have shown resilience and adaptation in face of persistent sanctions. The overall welfare of the average citizen is however subject to systemic constraints. DPRK in recent times has navigated through periods of economic hardship, famine, military provocations, and diplomatic confrontations, not always without assistance from traditional external partners.

In spite of what seems to be rigorous state control, there appears to be sign that the North Korean society is not entirely monolithic. Over the last two decades, for instance, grassroots marketization has encouraged growth of informal economic spaces with reports of over 400 officially sanctioned private market activities. The influx of foreign media through illicit means such as smuggled USB drives have also given the people glimpses of life beyond their borders as per testimonies of some North Korean ‘defectors’. This raises speculation about possible subtle shifts and aspirations amongst the younger generation raised under Kim Jong-un’s era.

Sanctions and Axis of Evil

It is no secret that North Korea has faced rolling waves of sanctions by the UN Security Council, the US, and the European Union every time Pyongyang tested its nuclear capabilities and test launched its ballistic missiles. The measures targeted sales of arms, imports of luxury goods, financial assets and access to global banking, in order to halt the DPRK nuclear program, yet their effectiveness remains contested. Additionally, the US hardening of position on North Korea arrived in 2002, when President George W. Bush added the DPRK to the “Axis of Evil”. The logic was straightforward, Washington implied that Pyongyang in its pursuit of Weapons of Mass Destruction supported global terrorism, which thereafter cemented DPRK’s pariah status in Western foreign policy - overlooking the country’s own insecurities and paranoia.

Persistence of Cold War Dynamics

North Korea’s global positioning must be placed within the larger Cold War context involving the Korean War of 1950 to 1953. The Korean War which ended in an armistice but not a peace treaty, entrenched the division of and locked the peninsula into hostility, and the North aligned itself with the Soviet Union bloc. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea faced an economic crisis and a strategic vacuum forcing Pyongyang to recalibrate its foreign relations and economic strategy. China became a crucial partner, supplying energy, food, aid and trade though with more pragmatic and conditional support.

Inter-Korean Tensions

Despite the recent Summits with President Trump and meetings with South Korean and Chinese leaders in 2017-18, Kim’s decision of last year to abandon hopes of peaceful reunification with South Korea and declare Seoul as North Korea’s new number one enemy indicates the pulls from divergent directions on DPRK on how to position itself in current geopolitics.

Russia-DPRK and China-DPRK

In the past two years, Russia has re-emerged as a willing partner to North Korea with the signing of a comprehensive treaty between Pyongyang and Moscow which is becoming a tool to resist Western pressure.  The treaty’s provision for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties is remnant of cold war politics and is understood to be aimed at deterring the US and its allies and NATO. Deployment of DPRK troops is a paradigm shift for the Ukraine war and current geopolitics. DPRK is now closely aligned with Russia and China - countries that challenge the west-led world order. This evolving cooperation provides North Korea with potential economic and technological gains, possibly in the form of advanced military equipment and energy resources, while complicating efforts for denuclearization and non-proliferation. Analysts indicate nuances in Russian and Chinese approaches towards DPRK and I hope the Panel will shed light on this.

India

Historically, India has maintained a non-confrontational approach towards North Korea, and has preferred dialogue and restraint. New Delhi maintains diplomatic relations with Pyongyang with limited developmental assistance. India has also recently decided to resume its Embassy operations in North Korea after it was shut in 2021 due to the Covid-19 restrictions. Within the broader Indo-Pacific outlook, India prioritizes stability on the Korean Peninsula and well-being of the Korean people as key to regional security, long-term stability and maritime cooperation. I hope the Panel will discuss whether there is room for India to broaden its outreach to DPRK especially in the humanitarian sphere.

An element in India’s position on North Korea has been its concerns related to proliferation linkages between DPRK, China and Pakistan which have adversely impacted its security calculus. India’s concerns are well-known; and here it is for China to take the lead in creating an atmosphere of trust.

Concluding Remarks

To conclude, let me say that, being an unconventional nation-state, it is important to explore DPRK beyond clichés that reduce it to a rogue regime. And it is with this objective that we have put together an eminent group of panellists today ably chaired by Amb Skand Tayal, Former Ambassador of India to South Korea and panellists from Delhi, Seoul and Moscow for varied perspectives. I look forward to a fruitful and thought-provoking discussion. I wish the panellists all the best.

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