Indian Council of World Affairs

Friends!

1.  It is a pleasure to have with us today Prof S. Irudaya Rajan join us for a talk on the theme “Future of Indian International Migration amidst Demographic Dividend”. Prof Rajan is currently the Chair of the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD) based in Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala. A celebrated Professor in the field of migration studies and a demographer with over forty years of experience, he has trained several young scholars at the Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Kerala. We witnessed his eloquence at the recently organised panel discussion by CMMDS- the migration vertical of ICWA on “Fraying at the Edges? Rethinking Narratives on International Migration and Mobility in 2025”, where post event he was surrounded by a hoard of young scholars in appreciation.

2.  Rajan, if your permit me, I wish to be the devil’s advocate. One part of the title of today’s panel discussion, let’s see, talks of India’s demographic dividend. The question that I would like to ask here is whether India is really facing a demographic dividend? – because if we were to observe the reality around us, it is telling us a different story. As you yourself remarked at our panel discussion on March 26^th on migration issues, “Kerala today faces an acute labour shortage and depends heavily on migrant workers from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand.” Moreover, labour shortages are not just happening in Kerala, they are becoming common in many parts of the country. Fertility rates seem to be falling, as is seen in the number of fertility clinics mushrooming across India. With family planning having been incentivized by the Government for decades, there is a certain two child norm prevalent in the country. Many families have one child or no child at all. At the same time, we are seeing more elderly parents being left without care. As regards public health, we see youngsters suffering from diabetes and high blood pressure and young kids from asthma. Young men in their thirties and forties are dying of heart attacks. As a result, we are seeing a plethora of untimely deaths. So before we talk about taking advantage of a demographic dividend, we need to ask: how real is the demographic dividend?

3.  Secondly, the other part of today’s theme is the ‘future of international migration and mobility’. During the pandemic, experts claimed that the “age of international migration is over”. And indeed what we are witnessing today are disturbing trends regarding how migration is being governed. Take the US for example, where the recent revocation of Harvard University's right to admit international students, the early visa cancellations of international students who choose to protest on political issues, and the deportation of Indian migrants from Punjab, Gujarat and Haryana reflect an alarming shift. While such policy measures may appear sporadic or driven by President Trump’s peculiar leadership, they may as well end up having long-term consequences. Such measures gradually erode the global ecosystem of receptiveness and trust, sending a clear message that international students and workers are no longer welcomed. On the other hand, even where migrants are seemingly welcomed, the motivations have changed. The current politics within the European Union illustrate this paradox sharply. Faced with shrinking populations and growing labour shortages, several EU Member States are actively seeking partnerships to recruit foreign workers to sustain its key sectors. Yet, this clear economic need unfolds alongside the rise of far-right parties and anti-immigrant sentiment. The message is clear: the EU does not want “migrants”, it is asking for “workers”. And the US is not even asking for workers. This distinction between ‘migrants’ and ‘workers’ is important because it devalues migration on one hand and upholds mobility on the other hand though as a transactional approach serving immediate economic requirements, without a commitment to long-term integration, rights, or belonging.

4.  Given the demographic dividend debate and increasingly regressive trends in global migration governance, it is imperative that India takes charge of its emigration narrative. Our focus must thus shift towards the model of “circular mobility”. This approach aligns seamlessly with the broader vision of the “Global Workplace,” a framework endorsed by both Prime Minister Modi and External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar. In a globalised, interconnected world, ‘circular mobility’ creates a balance between domestic needs and international requirement. It also strengthens open, pluralistic societies by promoting exchange, adaptability, and mutual understanding.

5.  Circular mobility offers a viable solution: For instance, an Indian may go abroad for two to three years to study or gain work experience, once the purpose has been achieved, they return home to contribute locally and be with their family. After a few years, they might pursue another short-term opportunity overseas. This cycle repeats without requiring long-term emigration or permanent settlement overseas. In contrast to traditional migration models where families are often separated for decades and never see each other, this circular approach allows individuals to have global interface while remaining present and responsible to their parents, grandparents, and children at home. In doing so, circular mobility transforms migration into “mobility” which is a dynamic cycle of learning, contribution, and return, ultimately rooted in dignity, reciprocity, national development, and in the homeland. To enable circular mobility, however, it would be essential, for instance, to strengthen international skilling partnerships and foster cooperation with both developed and developing countries so that Indian migrants can both learn and contribute across various skill levels.

6.  I look forward to hearing Prof. Rajan’s insights. Today’s event will conclude with the signing of an MoU between the Centre for Migration, Mobility and Diaspora Studies, ICWA, and the International Institute for Migration and Development (IIMAD): we are confident that this will be a step towards deeper collaboration in research, dialogue, and policy on international migration and mobility.

Thank you!

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