Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: Uzbekistan is facing persistent energy shortages that have turned the once gas-exporting country into an energy importer. Can its strategic shift to nuclear energy, supported by Russia, along with the development of other renewable sources, mitigate the shortfall? 

Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous nation and is strategically located at the heart of Eurasia along the ancient Silk Road. Endowed with abundant natural resources, Uzbekistan is the fifth-ranking uranium supplier in the world.[i] Despite possessing substantial energy reserves, Uzbekistan grapples with persistent power shortages, especially during the winter months, compelling its citizens to take to the streets in protest against the administration. This paper examines the underlying causes that have contributed to the country’s current situation and its efforts to address the problem. 

Critical Issues in Uzbekistan’s Energy Sector 

In Uzbekistan, gas accounts for over 80 per cent of the national energy balance.[ii] At a 2021 meeting, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev stated that Uzbekistan’s natural gas reserves are estimated at around 1.8 trillion cubic metres.[iii] In the same year, the then Minister of Energy of Uzbekistan, Alisher Sultanov, said in an interview with Voice of America, “Our gas can feed three Uzbekistans.”[iv] However, the country’s gas production has been declining since 2018. According to the Statistics Committee report published in 2025, Uzbekistan’s gas production for the first two months of this year totalled 7.37 billion cubic metres, which is 781 million cubic metres lower than the same period in 2023. In 2024, Uzbekistan produced 44.6 billion cubic metres of gas compared to 61.6 bcm in 2018. In the same year, oil and condensate output fell to around 39,000 barrels per day, which is 2 per cent lower compared to the preceding year.[v]

Uzbekistan imported approximately $1.67–$1.68 billion worth of natural gas in 2024. The trade deficit between gas imports and exports surged from $165 million in 2023 to $959 million in the first 11 months of 2024.[vi] People across the country, especially in Tashkent and surrounding areas, suffered from inadequate heating. Motor drivers had to spend hours in line for gas, and many gas stations were closed. So how did a country with annual natural gas export volumes of 16 billion cubic metres (bcm) (in 2008) become a net importer of gas?

Uzbekistan’s energy sector faces various challenges, including ageing gas fields, old and inadequate infrastructure, management, investments and financial constraints, an obligation to meet emission standards, and international gas export commitments. Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov’s statement on 11 September 2023 suggests that the long-term exploitation of Uzbekistan’s natural gas reserves has resulted in the depletion of nearly 85 per cent of the reserves.[vii] Though exploration projects of new gas fields, such as in the regions of Ustyurt, Bukhara-Khiva and Amu Darya, have been initiated, the minister has cautioned that the potential failure of the exploration may result in gas imports rising to about 10-11 billion cubic metres annually by 2030.[viii] Further, more than one-third of the country’s 238,600 kilometres of power lines had been in operation for over 40 years, which by technical standards requires overhauls every 15 to 25 years at most.[ix] The tragic gas field explosion in Uzbekistan on 1 September 2024 at the M25 gas field and the earlier hydrogen sulphide release exemplifies the failure of infrastructure.[x] The government is also taking measures to streamline and is taking stern action against negligent officials.

Uzbekistan also needs to fulfil its long-term gas export commitments to China. In 2022, Uzbekistan exported 4 bcm of gas for $841 million, constituting nearly a tenth of the nation’s total production. Almost this entire volume was directed to China.[xi] Furthermore, data from the first 11 months of 2024 reveals that Uzbekistan exported gas worth $593 million to China, 16.5 per cent higher than the same period last year. As of the first four months of 2025, Uzbekistan has exported more than twice the volume of gas despite a growing domestic shortage.[xii] This reinforces the fact that the Uzbekistan Government had to continue with the exports despite domestic shortfalls.[xiii]

Strategic Initiatives to Address Energy Deficit

The Uzbekistan Government has introduced a series of strategic measures, including renewable and nuclear energy, to transition toward sustainable energy and address systemic inefficiencies. Uzbekistan is trying to bridge the energy gap by harnessing the country’s renewable energy resources. The country has launched multiple projects aligning with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35 per cent by 2030 and increase the share of green energy to 40 per cent by the same year, alongside plans for electric vehicle clusters, green hydrogen hubs, and the expansion of green spaces through the “Yashil Makon” programme.[xiv]

The rapidly growing domestic demand is projected to nearly double by 2050, and Uzbekistan might not be able to sustain its needs. Advocating nuclear energy as a viable option to address the nation’s energy scarcity, President Mirziyoyev emphasised “nearly all leading countries ensure their energy security and sustainable development with nuclear energy”.[xv]

Uzbekistan is a major producer of uranium, producing more than 3000 tU annually[xvi], and it wants to leverage its substantial reserves to pursue nuclear power as a stable, long-term energy solution. Uzbekistan can leverage nuclear energy to address its declining gas production and rising imports. Exploring nuclear energy can allow Uzbekistan to diversify its energy portfolio, reducing its dependency on any one source, which in turn assures its energy security. Nuclear power offers a reliable baseload of electricity, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and serving as a cleaner alternative.

A cornerstone of this strategy is the agreement with Russia to construct Central Asia’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). Western sanctions amid the Russia–Ukraine war have forced Moscow to look towards nuclear energy generation markets. By strengthening its energy partnerships with countries such as Uzbekistan, Russia is seeking to compensate for losses on European markets.[xvii]

Joint stock company Atomstroyexport (the engineering division of Rosatom) and the state unitary enterprise Directorate for the Construction of Nuclear Power Plants under Uzatom, the agency for atomic energy of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, inked a contract on 27 May 2024 to establish a small modular reactor nuclear power plant (SNPP) in Uzbekistan. The plant will be built near Lake Tuzkan in the Jizzakh region, specifically in the Farish district of Uzbekistan.

Initially, the NPP project was intended to consist of 2 large reactors of 1.2 gigawatts each, at a cost estimated to be $11 billion. However, it has now been decided that the NPP will be a small plant consisting of 6 small reactors of 55 Megawatt each totalling 330 MW nuclear power plant. Overall, the electricity that will be produced by the NPP is expected to account for about 15 per cent of the total energy produced in the country. [xviii]These are water-cooled Reactor Integralnii Transportnii Morskoi (RITM) ‑200 reactors weighing 205 tonnes with a service life of 60 years and a maintenance cycle of 5-6 years.[xix] The reactor is an adaptation of Russia’s naval reactor technology for land-based deployment. It is being used for nuclear icebreakers in the Arctic region by Russia. Per the latest reports, preparatory work on the buildings required to support construction and administration of the planned small modular reactor project has already begun.[xx] Russia and Uzbekistan have collaborated on training skilled personnel to support Uzbekistan’s nuclear energy sector.[xxi]

Uzbekistan has also approached China for financial support for the construction of nuclear power plants. In April 2025, Uzatom, the Atomic Energy Agency under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan and Eximbank of China conducted a meeting in this regard.[xxii] Uzatom officials also met representatives of China National Nuclear Corporation Overseas Ltd. (CNOS) under China National Nuclear Corporation and Shanghai Electric to discuss options for increasing involvement in their partnership.[xxiii]

For Uzbekistan, India is a key strategic partner, with which Uzbekistan signed a long-term deal in 2019 for the supply of 1100 MTU of natural uranium ore concentrates to power Indian atomic reactors during the 2022–26 period. In an India-Uzbekistan virtual Summit on 11 December 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev endorsed the deepening of bilateral civil nuclear cooperation between both countries. Focusing on civil nuclear energy cooperation, the two countries also concluded an agreement between the Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership of India and the Agency for Development of Nuclear Energy from Uzbekistan.[xxiv]

On the sidelines of the 150^th assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, on 7 April 2025, during his meeting with the President of Uzbekistan, in Tashkent, Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla called for deeper collaborations between India and Uzbekistan in the field of digital technologies, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and peaceful nuclear energy.[xxv]

Uzbekistan also joined the International Solar Alliance (ISA) in 2017 and has signed an MoU with India, which proposes that both parties will work together to identify and implement pilot projects in ISA member countries.[xxvi] These engagements position India to capitalise on Uzbekistan’s strategic pivot to nuclear energy as well as renewable energy areas in the future.

As one of the forerunners in developing nuclear energy in the region, Uzbekistan in developing nuclear energy in the region, can also pave the way for other Central Asian countries who may explore nuclear power to advance towards sustainable energy.

Challenges with Nuclear Energy

Though civil nuclear power programmes are usually safe, radioactive release and its impact need to be kept in check. There are reports of risks associated with Russia’s nuclear energy programme. For instance, in late 2023, Rosatom used a cargo vessel with a history of safety violations to deliver a fresh supply of nuclear fuel to the Akademik Lomonosov. In April 2024, a state of emergency was declared in the Far Eastern city of Khabarovsk due to a radiation leak. The cleanup efforts for nuclear pollution in the Arctic are also on hold.[xxvii] Risks, such as nuclear waste, meltdowns and accidents and natural disasters, are common issues associated with other companies as well in this sector. Additionally, according to some recent reports, the location of Uzbekistan’s nuclear power plant is in a seismically active zone, which further underscores safety concerns.[xxviii][xxix] Uzbekistan should prioritise rigorous safety measures and monitoring of such projects and move ahead after making the cost benefit analysis of the project in collaboration with Rosatom.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan’s strategic vision to address the energy shortfall through diversified strategies may position it as a model for Central Asia. With international collaborations, including support from the IAEA, Uzbekistan aims to utilise nuclear energy for its development.[xxx] Harnessing renewable and nuclear energy provides long-term reliability while reducing its dependence on gas imports. This also paves the way for Uzbekistan to utilise its gas fields to secure its domestic needs while boosting exports.

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*Rounak Tahiliyani , Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power in Uzbekistan,” available at: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/uzbekistan. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[ii] International Energy Agency, “Uzbekistan 2022 Energy Policy Review,” available at: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/0d00581c-dc3c-466f-b0c8-97d25112a6e0/Uzbekistan2022.pdf. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[iii] Gazeta.uz, “Узбекистан располагает запасами газа на 17 лет — Минэнерго,” August 10, 2021, available at: https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2021/08/10/gas-reserves. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[iv] Qalampir.uz, “Gas Crisis in Uzbekistan: Causes and Consequences,” available at: https://www.qalampir.uz/en/news/gaz-2-111238. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[v] Upstream Online, “Uzbekistan renews push to attract foreign investment in oil and gas,” available at: https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/uzbekistan-renews-push-to-attract-foreign-investment-in-oil-and-gas/2-1-1818896. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[vi] Kun.uz, “From Gas Powerhouse to Dependency: How Uzbekistan Became a Net Importer of Natural Gas,” December 28, 2024, available at: https://kun.uz/en/news/2024/12/28/from-gas-powerhouse-to-dependency-how-uzbekistan-became-a-net-importer-of-natural-gas. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[vii] Qalampir.uz, “Gas Crisis in Uzbekistan: Causes and Consequences,” available at: https://www.qalampir.uz/en/news/gaz-2-111238. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[viii] Kun.uz, “From Gas Powerhouse to Dependency: How Uzbekistan Became a Net Importer of Natural Gas,” December 28, 2024, available at: https://kun.uz/en/news/2024/12/28/from-gas-powerhouse-to-dependency-how-uzbekistan-became-a-net-importer-of-natural-gas. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[ix] Qalampir.uz, “Gas Crisis in Uzbekistan: Causes and Consequences,” available at: https://www.qalampir.uz/en/news/gaz-2-111238. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[x] Energy News, “Tragic Explosion in Uzbekistan: Safety Issues in the Energy Sector,” available at: https://energynews.pro/en/tragic-explosion-in-uzbekistan-safety-issues-in-the-energy-sector. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xi] Kun.uz, “From Gas Powerhouse to Dependency: How Uzbekistan Became a Net Importer of Natural Gas,” December 28, 2024, available at: https://kun.uz/en/news/2024/12/28/from-gas-powerhouse-to-dependency-how-uzbekistan-became-a-net-importer-of-natural-gas. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xii] Caspian Post, “Uzbekistan Boosts Gas Exports to China,” available at: https://caspianpost.com/uzbekistan/uzbekistan-boosts-gas-exports-to-china. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xiii] Kun.uz, “From Gas Powerhouse to Dependency: How Uzbekistan Became a Net Importer of Natural Gas,” December 28, 2024, available at: https://kun.uz/en/news/2024/12/28/from-gas-powerhouse-to-dependency-how-uzbekistan-became-a-net-importer-of-natural-gas. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xiv] President.uz, “Президент Узбекистана подписал указ о мерах по обеспечению энергетической безопасности,” available at: https://president.uz/ru/lists/view/7690. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xv] The Diplomat, “Uzbekistan, Russia to Start Construction of Small Nuclear Power Plants,” May 2024, available at: https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/uzbekistan-russia-to-start-construction-of-small-nuclear-power-plants/. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xvi] World Nuclear Association, “Uranium in Uzbekistan,” April 2, 2024, available at: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/uzbekistan. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xvii] Energy News, “Vladimir Putin Announces Increased Gas Deliveries to Uzbekistan,” available at: https://energynews.pro/en/vladimir-putin-announces-increased-gas-deliveries-to-uzbekistan/. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xviii] Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, “Nuclear Power Plant in Uzbekistan: Energy and Geopolitics,” available at: https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13812-nuclear-power-plant-in-uzbekistan-energy-and-geopolitics.html. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xix] Rosatom Newsletter, “First SMRs for Export,” June 28, 2024, available at: https://rosatomnewsletter.com/2024/06/28/first-smrs-for-export/. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xx] World Nuclear News, “Uzbekistan SMR Project Sees Start of Auxiliary Buildings Construction,” available at: https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/uzbekistan-smr-project-sees-start-of-auxiliary-buildings-construction. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxi] Daryo News, “Uzbekistan, Russia launch joint engineering school to train nuclear energy specialists,” May 18, 2025, available at: https://daryo.uz/en/2025/05/18/uzbekistan-russia-launch-joint-engineering-school-to-train-nuclear-energy-specialists. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxii] UzDaily.uz, “Uzatom and China Eximbank Discuss Financial Support for Nuclear Power Plant Construction in Uzbekistan,” available at: https://www.uzdaily.uz/ru/uzatom-i-eksimbank-kitaia-obsudili-finansovuiu-podderzhku-stroitelstva-aes-v-uzbekistane. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxiii] UzDaily.uz, “Uzatom and China Eximbank Discuss Financial Support for Nuclear Power Plant Construction in Uzbekistan,” available at: https://www.uzdaily.uz/ru/uzatom-i-eksimbank-kitaia-obsudili-finansovuiu-podderzhku-stroitelstva-aes-v-uzbekistane. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxiv] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Joint Statement on India-Uzbekistan Virtual Summit: Close Friendship, Strong Partnership,” December 11, 2020, available at: https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/33281/joint+statement+on+indiauzbekistan+virtual+summit+close+friendship+strong+partnership. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxv] Press Information Bureau, “India and Uzbekistan Share Timeless Ties of History and Heritage: Lok Sabha Speaker,” April 7, 2025, available at: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2119920. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxvi] PV Magazine India, “Cabinet approves India, Uzbekistan MoU on solar energy and storage,” January 20, 2021. Available at: https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2021/01/20/india-uzbekistan-partner-on-solar-energy-and-storage/. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxvii] Eurasianet, “Russia Pressing Central Asian States to Embrace Nuclear Power,” available at: https://eurasianet.org/russia-pressing-central-asian-states-to-embrace-nuclear-power. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxviii] Geopolitical Monitor, “Does Uzbekistan Need a Nuclear Power Plant?,” February 22, 2023, available at: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/does-uzbekistan-need-a-nuclear-power-plant/. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxix] Daryo News, “Uzbekistan advances compact nuclear power plant project,” January 5, 2025, available at: https://daryo.uz/en/2025/01/05/uzbekistan-advances-compact-nuclear-power-plant-project. Accessed May 23, 2025.

[xxx] Laffan Katy, “IAEA Building ‘Strong Cooperation’ with Uzbekistan in Nuclear Energy and Health,” December 5, 2024, available at: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-building-strong-cooperation-with-uzbekistan-in-nuclear-energy-and-health. Accessed May 23, 2025.