Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: The much-anticipated South Korean snap Presidential election was held on June 3, 2025. After a troublesome six months of political uncertainty following the short-lived Martial Law declared by Yoon Suk-yeol and his eventual impeachment, the country is now looking at a fresh start amidst the shifting geopolitical dynamics. 

Introduction 

After South Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld the National Assembly’s decision to impeach former President Yoon Suk-yeol on April 4, 2025,[1] the snap Presidential election was mandated by law within 60 days of the decision, precisely June 3, 2025.[2] South Korea endured 6 months of political turmoil starting in December 2024, resulting from Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of Martial Law and his subsequent official impeachment in April 2025. The country has now elected Lee Jae-myung as its new President, to serve from 2025 to 2030. 

President Lee Jae-myung set a new record receiving 17.29 million votes, or 49.42 percent of the total, defeating Kim Moon-soo by approximately 2.89 million votes, while former President Yoon Suk-yeol held the previous record of 16.39 million votes in the 2022 Presidential race.[3] President Lee Jae-Myung was sworn in office on June 4 at the National Assembly. However, on July 17, in conjunction with the Constitution Day commemoration there will be a formal inauguration ceremony titled “Appointment Day” in order to reflect Lee’s belief that “the people appoint the President”.[4]

Road to Lee Jae-myung’s victory

During the run up to the snap Presidential election, the implosion of the People’s Power Party (PPP) regarding their presidential candidate provided the opposition Democratic Party (DP) nominee Lee Jae-myung a clear road ahead to be elected as the 14^th individual to serve as President of South Korea once voting opened on June 3, 2025. The PPP which was still recovering from the impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol, found itself in deeper waters as Kim Moon-soo refused to accept a candidacy merger with former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. In fact, Kim Moon-soo went as far as declaring himself as the “party’s legitimate nominee”. Later on, with only a fortnight left for the voting, Kim Moon-soo appealed to Lee Jun-seok of the minor conservative New Reform Party for a possible merger.[5] All this while, Lee Jae-myung had already kicked off his election campaign rally and was ahead in opinion polls to become the 14^th person to serve as President of South Korea.

The Democratic Party hitherto had the upper hand as the PPP experienced a legitimacy crisis following Yoon’s martial law and impeachment. This election result was a reflection of the outrage the majority of the citizens felt during the night of December 3, 2024. The announcement of the decree that night was a stark reminder for many regarding their troubled authoritarian past. PPP did not just have to replace a President but also needed to overhaul its entire image spoiled by a rash and short-lived decree. Meanwhile the intense public display of cracks within the PPP leadership as Kim Moon-soo refused to compromise on his candidacy unveiled the lack of consensus within the party regarding its future.

The progressive liberals of the DP are back on the presidential seat after their last defeat in 2022, and they additionally hold the majority in the National Assembly till 2028. This implies that the functioning of the new South Korean government at least for the next three years should ideally be uninterrupted. Lee Jae-myung who was facing a series of criminal hearings, including the charges of election law violations was provided a relief by the Seoul High Court.[6] He is now expected to face the hearings on June 15, 2025, well after his swearing in.[7] Even if the Court’s decisions are to be unfavourable for Lee Jae-myung, the Article 84 of the South Korean Constitution stipulates that “the president is immune to prosecution during their term for any criminal charges except for insurrection or treason”.[8] In this way, Lee Jae-myung with his party holding majority in the National Assembly could become one of the strongest Presidents of South Korea to govern at least till 2028, when the next National Assembly elections takes place.

Foreign Policy Crossroads

With a more liberal DP coming into power, there are now several aspects of South Korea’s foreign policy that could be refurbished. The new South Korean government arrives amidst the escalation of geopolitical turbulences in terms of global tariff negotiations with Donald Trump’s second administration. Lee Jae-myung also faces a more emboldened Kim Jong-un who has officially acknowledged that North Korea sent troops to fight for Russia.[9] Meanwhile, the 80-year-old policy of reunification was abandoned by Kim Jong-un. He declared South Korea as a “primary enemy state” at the 10th Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) in January 2024.[10]

Experts have also raised concerns about the trajectory of the aspirations to become a “Global Pivotal State” that was declared by Yoon Suk-yeol,[11] and the “Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Strategy” announced first in November 2022.[12] The “Global Pivotal State” aspirations were described as a policy shift away from the previous Moon Jae-in (2017-2022) strategy of focusing on inter-Korea relations.[13] In fact, the official document of the “Strategy for a Free, Peaceful and Prosperous Indo-Pacific”, issued in December 2022 marked a milestone as Seoul for the first time openly embraced the already prevalent Indo-Pacific framework, and connected the existential threats in the Korean Peninsula to a wider geo-strategic construct.[14] With the incoming Lee Jae-myung government, these two aspects of South Korea’s foreign policy adopted under Yoon are expected to at least undergo a revamp. 

The traditional approaches in foreign policy when liberal progressive parties come to power in South Korea, is to primarily engage in dialogue and diplomacy with the North to achieve reunification goals. Additionally, the progressive leaderships in South Korea have often been much in favour of withdrawing from the US-ROK alliance structure. Subsequently, the historical grievances with Japan seem to flare up occasionally under progressive administrations in South Korea. During the Moon Jae-in and Shinzo Abe era, the two countries suffered one of the roughest patches in their relations. The situation only improved when conservative PPP leader Yoon Suk-yeol announced a “future-oriented approach” in March 2023, to reset ties between Tokyo and Seoul.[15] In essence, Yoon Suk-yeol’s recalibration strategy with Japan eventually resulted in starting a new era of institutionalizing the South Korea-Japan-US trilateral partnership during the Camp David Summit on 18 August 2023.[16] If the Lee Jae-myung administration reflects the previous liberal administration decisions, such as former President Moon Jae-in’s decision to review the THAAD deployment or halt joint military exercises with the US, the enhanced strategic coordination being promulgated between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo could witness a significant change. 

Conclusion 

As South Korea endeavours towards a restart with President Lee Jae-myung, following 6 months of political instability, there are substantial expectations from the new government, especially considering that the ruling DP holds both the Presidency and a majority in the National Assembly until at least 2028. It is expected that the President Lee’s government will usher in policies that will not only impact the country’s domestic population but have wider influence on its global partnerships. 

It remains to be seen if the DP administration will bring changes or continuity to its foreign policy approaches, particularly as the world is in a state of flux with global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and conflicts in Ukraine, Russia, West Asia, and South Asia. The previous New Southern Policy (NSP) models of Moon Jae-in could also be revived and repackaged, which was conventionally seen as a hedging approach without siding towards either the US or China. The NSP was aimed at diversifying South Korea’s foreign policy beyond traditional partners like US, China, Japan and Russia. 

As the global order becomes increasingly multipolar and unpredictable, the new administration under Lee Jae-myung is expected to navigate a complex interplay between alliance management and regional diversification in order to ensure that South Korea remains resilient while adapting to the shifting power dynamics.

***** 

*Dr. Tunchinmang Langel, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal

Endnotes

[1] Lee Haye-ah, 2025, “Constitutional Court upholds Yoon's impeachment, removes him from office,” Yonhap News Agency, April 4, 2025, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250403008555315 (Accessed May 23, 2025)

[2] The Guardian, 2025, “South Korea sets snap election date after President Yoon’s removal from office,” April 8, 2025, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/08/south-korea-election-date-2025 (Accessed May 23, 2025)

[3] Jung Da-hyun, 2025, “Lee Jae-myung clinches presidency with record vote count,” The Korea Times, June 4, 2025, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/politics/20250604/lee-jae-myung-clinches-presidency-with-record-vote-count (Accessed May June 4, 2025)

[4] The Korea Herald, 2025, “Lee to take oath of office at National Assembly,” June 4, 2025, https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10502072 (Accessed June 4, 2025)

[5] Yi Wonju, 2025, “Lee embraces center-right politicians; Kim clings to candidacy merger with minor party,” Yonhap News Agency, May 21, 2025, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20250521001651315 (Accessed May 22, 2025)

[6] Son Ji-hyoung, 2025, “Courts postpone Lee Jae-myung hearings until after election,” The Korea Herald, May 7, 2025, https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10481832 (Accessed May 20, 2025)

[7] Korea Pro, 2025, “Seoul High Court delays Lee Jae-myung’s trial until after election day,” May 8, 2025, https://koreapro.org/2025/05/seoul-high-court-delays-lee-jae-myungs-trial-until-after-election-day/ (Accessed May 22, 2025)

[8] Son Ji-hyoung, 2025, “Courts postpone Lee Jae-myung hearings until after election,” The Korea Herald, May 7, 2025, https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10481832 (Accessed May 20, 2025)

[9] Justin McCurry, Pjotr Sauer and agencies, 2025, “Putin and Kim confirm for first time North Koreans fought for Russia in Ukraine war,” The Guardian, April 28, 2025,  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/28/north-korea-troops-fighting-for-russia-ukraine-confirmed-kim-jong-un (Accessed May 22, 2025)

[10] Rodong Sinmun, 2024, “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Makes Policy Speech at 10th Session of 14th SPA,” KCNA Watch, January 16, 2024, https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1705399837-434912951/respected-comrade-kim-jong-un-makes-policy-speech-at-10th-session-of-14th-spa/ (Accessed May 23, 2025)

[11] Yoon Suk-yeol, 2025, “South Korea Needs to Step Up,” Foreign Affairs, February 8, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/south-korea/south-korea-needs-step-yoon-suk-yeol (Accessed May 23, 2025)

[12] The Korea Times, 2022, “Yoon unveils strategy for free, peaceful, prosperous Indo-Pacific,” November 11, 2022, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/20221111/yoon-unveils-strategy-for-free-peaceful-prosperous-indo-pacific (Accessed May 23, 2025)

[13] Andrew Yeo, 2023, “South Korea as a Global Pivotal State,” December 19, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/south-korea-as-a-global-pivotal-state/ (Accessed May 22, 2025)

[14] Nam Hyun-woo, 2022, “Seoul seeks cautious balance in US, China ties via Indo-Pacific strategy,” The Korea Times, December 29, 2022, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/20221229/seoul-seeks-cautious-balance-in-us-china-ties-via-indo-pacific-strategy (Accessed May 23, 2025)

[15] Yonhap News Agency. 2022. “Yoon calls for future-oriented approach to S. Korea-Japan relations,” 28 March 2022, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220328002951315 (Accessed May 22, 2025)

[16] Tunchinmang Langel, 2023, “Japan-ROK-US Trilateral Summit at Camp David,” Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), August 29, 2023, /show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=9877&lid=6314 (Accessed May 23, 2025)