Indian Council of World Affairs

What is Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement?

The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) is a historical milestone, a testament to the essential and necessary pursuit of peace for Myanmar, demonstrating a level of compromise, tolerance, patience, and desire for peace unprecedented in her history. The NCA is an agreement and accord between the State and eight ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) signed on the 15^th October, 2015, which lasted for the last ten years.  

The NCA is not only the most fundamental basis for the peace process, but it is also an accord that includes important political frameworks for building a democratic and federal system-based Union, and a commitment agreed upon between the government and the ethnic armed organizations. The NCA was not drafted by a single person or organization; it was based on the initial proposals of the representatives of ethnic armed organizations, and was drafted through detailed, exhaustive negotiations and agreement with near unanimity among the government, the Tatmadaw (military), and the EAOs. From the day the first democratic government extended peace talks in 2011 until the final NCA signing, a period of 1,450 days, a total of over 5,000 meetings and negotiations were held. 

The NCA signing ceremony on October 15, 2015 was hosted by the government, and eight ethnic armed organizations, namely Karen National Union (KNU), Democratic Buddhist Karen Army (DKBA), Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Committee (KNU/KNLA-PC), Chin National Front (CNF), Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO), All Burma Student Democratic Front (ABSDF), Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), and Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), signed the agreement witnessed by diplomats from the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), China, India, Japan, and Thailand, along with domestic witnesses. Immediately after the signing, the agreement was also ratified by the Union Parliament. On February 13, 2018, two more ethnic armed organizations, Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) and New Mon State Party (NMSP), also joined the signing, bringing the total number of NCA signatories to ten organizations. 

The NCA consists of 104 stipulations comprising 7 Chapters, 33 Articles, and 86 Clauses. and a total of. It includes Fundamental Principles, Objectives and Purposes, Ceasefire Matters, Strengthening the Ceasefire, Guarantees for the Political Dialogue, Future Work Processes, and General Provisions. The fundamental principle of the NCA is: "To build a Union based on democracy and a federal system, with full guarantees for freedom, equality, and justice, in the spirit of the Panglong Agreement, and based on the results of the political dialogues, while upholding the non-disintegration of the Union, the non-disintegration of national solidarity, and the perpetuation of sovereignty. Political problems shall be resolved through political means, not military means. To achieve the complete end of armed conflict by establishing a new political culture, the nationwide ceasefire must be implemented first."

Following the signing of the NCA, coordination meetings for the implementation of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (JICM) were held according to the provisions in the accord. The Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) and the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) were formed, and their respective Terms of Reference (ToR), Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and the framework for political dialogue were drawn up and implemented. 

By the end of January 2021, there had been 9 JICM meetings, 20 UPDJC meetings, and 19 JMC(U) meetings. The UPDJC discussed political basic principles related to the political sector, economic sector, social sector, security sector, and land and natural environment sector, and was able to convene 5 Union Peace Conferences. Agreements reached at the Union Peace Conferences were submitted to the Union Parliament for ratification, resulting in 72 points of agreement in Union Accord Parts (1), (2), and (3). Consultations are ongoing to implement these agreements.

An Assessment of the NCA

The NCA is not merely a ceasefire agreement between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed groups, but a political reform agreement that provides a path for political dialogue. Lack of clarity or inclusion of detailed military matters such as troop deployment, demarcation, and verification, as well as unclear limitations regarding holding local political dialogue in relevant regions, remained major challenges in implementing the NCA.

While short-term commitments of the government to implement the agreement under the time frame of 90 days were all implemented by the first democratic government’s tenure (2011-2015) following the NCA signing ceremony, the outcomes were not materialized due to the change of government in November elections. When the NLD government took power in April 2016, its failure to follow up the details of NCA agreement and deliver early outcomes led some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) doubting on the NCA. Difficulties were encountered in moving forward on sensitive issues between the two sides (Tatmadaw and EAOs), such as constitutional amendments, establishment of a federal army, non-secession, security sector reform, and holding National-Level Political Dialogues.

During the second democratic government's tenure (2016-2021), prioritizing constitutional amendments over continued implementation of the peace process heightened the concerns and suspicions of the NCA signatory EAOs, leading to a loss of momentum in the political negotiations. Inside the Parliament, the majority of the people’s representatives responsible for legislative duties repealed critical laws related to state security and the rule of law. Furthermore, the practice of using majority votes to override decisions on regional and state-level issues within the Union Parliament caused a decline in the trust of the ethnic people towards the government.

The 2020 multi-party democratic general election was marred by over 11 million instances of voter-registration irregularities, including inflated voter lists, the inclusion of ineligible voters, illegal voting practices, and illegal collection of advance votes in wards and villages. The Tatmadaw repeatedly called for investigation and resolution of the electoral irregularities until the night of January 31, 2021, but the officials of the ruling NLD government rejected the calls for negotiation and attempted to convene parliament to rectify the results. Under such political circumstances, the Tatmadaw declared a State of Emergency in accordance with the 2008 Constitution and assumed state power on February 1, 2021.

NCA: Where is it Going?

Starting in March 2021 during the state of emergency, the country saw a progression from ordinary protests to mass riots, and then to acts of terrorism. Ultimately, this escalated into armed terrorist attacks against the State. Led by some extremist NLD party members, youths were organized, indoctrinated, and formed so-called PDF extremist armed groups across the country.

In addition to non-signatory ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), some NCA signatory EAOs also supported the hardline PDFs, even providing military training. Dissatisfied individuals and those abroad formed parallel governments like the NUG and CRPH, recruiting and organizing the PDFs, and supporting the armed terrorist attacks through various means. Civilian administrative officials were brutally assassinated, accused of being informers or "dalan," leading to a surging wave of violence. From February 2021 to July 2025, a total of 7,284 people, including civilians, military personnel, ward administrators, teachers, healthcare workers, monks, and nuns, were killed in terrorist attacks.

Non-signatory EAOs launched armed struggles under the banner of federalism, while the NUG and PDFs launched armed struggles across the country, in the name of “people’s revolution for democracy.”  Out of 10 NCA signatory EAOs, three—KNU, CNF, and ABSDF—turned their backs on the peace dialogue table and began to fight against the Tatmadaw.  Few EAOs follow suit. On February 15, 2024, armed forces led by Khun Thu Rein from the PNLO defected, supported the PDFs, abandoned the PNLO, rejected the NCA, and began attacking the Tatmadaw and security forces. On February 14, 2024, some armed members of the NMSP-Mon group split off, calling themselves NMSP(AD) and abandoning the NCA.

On October 27, 2023, the MNDAA, AA, and TNLA simultaneously launched armed terrorist attacks in northern Shan State, under the pretext of eliminating online scam operations, naming it Operation 1027. Initially, they gained an advantage using imported drone technology with the aid of foreign experts, seizing Tatmadaw columns, camps, and headquarters, thereby violating the State's sovereignty. The fighting spread from the border areas of Laukkai where online scam operators located to the territories inside the country such as Kunlong, Lashio, Theinni, Hsipaw, Kyaukme, and Mogok regions. These attacks caused instability in the region, leading to immense destruction of social and economic lives of local ethnic people, and significant casualties.

Taking advantage of the northern Shan State’s military situation, EAOs across the country—KIA and PDFs in Kachin State; CNF and CDF (PDF) in Chin State; KNU, KNLA, and PDFs in Kayin State; KNPP and PDFs in Kayah State; KNU, NMSP (breakaway), and PDFs in Mon State and Tanintharyi Region; AA and PDFs in Rakhine State; and local PDFs in Sagaing and Magway Regions—have launched their offensives across the country.  Some foreign countries, driven by their national interests in Myanmar, have provided financial, arms, ammunition, and technological assistance to armed insurgents, political dissidents, and organizations pursuing a terrorist path.  They also financially supported "exile" media outlets, bolstering their narratives to justify the terrorist acts. Meanwhile, Western governments have imposed numerous sanctions on Myanmar under various human rights pretexts and unproven accusations.

The majority of non-signatory EAOs have consistently used the exile “propaganda” to propagate the notion that the NCA is defunct or has become invalid with repeatedly slandering stories through various media outlets. The narrative proclaiming, "The NCA is broken, the peace process in Myanmar is dead," have had a significant impact on some EAOs, the diplomatic community, and some foreign organizations involved in the peace process.

The State Administration Council (SAC) has set a five-point roadmap to ensure the peace process continue with new momentum. The roadmap includes the commitment to "implement the NCA agreements with utmost diligence" to achieve lasting peace nationwide. Furthermore, its political objective includes the focus to "implement the NCA with diligence to achieve lasting peace nationwide," demonstrating its serious intent to implement the NCA. To ensure the peace process continues without interruption, the following three peace committees were formed on February 17, 2021:

• National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee (NSPNC)
• National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Working Committee (NSPWC)
• National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Coordinating Committee (NSPNC)

On April 22, 2022, the SAC Chairman delivered a peace address to ethnic armed organizations and the public, designating 2022 as the Year of Peace. He invited ethnic armed group leaders to meet and hold sincere and frank discussions to implement peace issues practically and effectively. In response to this invitation, 7 NCA signatory EAOs—ALP, DKBA, KNU/KNLA-PC, LDU, NMSP, PNLO, and RCSS—and 3 non-signatory groups—UWSP, NDAA, and SSPP—a total of 10 EAOs, came to Nay Pyi Taw for peace talks. 

From February 2021 to October 2025, the Coordinating Committee held a total of 160 meetings: 97 with NCA signatory EAOs, 26 with non-signatory EAOs, 22 with political parties, 13 with peace mediator groups, 1 peace talk, and 1 peace forum.  Meetings were held with representatives from political parties and a working group of registered political parties from 2022 to January 2025. The meetings also covered discussions regarding EAO’s proposals for amendments and additions to the 2008 Constitution, as well as peace and development issues. The discussions with the political party working group resulted in the signing of 43 points of agreement for amendment to the 2008 Constitution.

The following four commitments were also reached through negotiations with the EAOs and the working group of political parties:

1. Implement the strengthening of the multi-party democratic political system in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar.
2. Build a Union based on democracy and a federal system, which is the desired goal of all ethnic people.
3. Collaborate on Union peace and development.
4. Uphold the rule of law, regional stability, and the ability to compete freely and fairly in multi-party democratic elections.

In his address at the 8th NCA Anniversary ceremony, the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, and Chairman of the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Central Committee (NSPCC), Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, reiterate the stance of the Tatmadaw and the State Government towards the NCA:

1. Overall Aim: To build a Union based on a genuine and disciplined multi-party democratic system and a democratic and federal system.
2. Goal: To diligently implement the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) to achieve lasting peace nationwide.
3. Objective: To implement the NCA agreements with utmost diligence to maintain the stability of internal peace and consolidate earlier peace results achieved.

Regarding the provision of humanitarian assistance, which is included under Chapter 3 (Ceasefire Matters) of the NCA, the NSPNC has been effectively coordinating and collaborating with international organizations via the JMC-TSC channel from 2022 to 2025 to support peace process. From 2022 to December 2024, eight deliveries of humanitarian assistance were provided to displaced persons and local residents in conflict-affected areas such as Shan, Rakhine, Kayin, Kayah States, and Sagaing and Magway Regions, supporting 250,000 people. Assessment is underway to provide humanitarian aid for 214,967 displaced people in Myaung, Ayadaw, Wetlet, Khin-U, Ye-U, and Depayin townships in Sagaing Region in 2025. 

To provide humanitarian assistance to conflict-affected displaced persons in the territories of the 7 NCA signatory EAOs, the NSPNC coordinated with the Nippon Foundation. From 2022 to 2024, four deliveries of over 58,055 bags of rice were distributed, and arrangements are being made to deliver 29,300 bags for 2025.  Informal dialogues (in-person, video conference, and virtual) continue regularly with the negotiating parties, serving as the mechanism for peace dialogue. 

The NSPNC has an ongoing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Crisis Management Initiative (CMI), based in Finland, from 2019 to 2025. CMI provides continuous support through technical training, workshops on peace-related issues, and video conferencing support for the meetings between JMC-TSC, NSPNC, and civilian representatives, offering technical advice and international peace experiences to aid the peace process. CMI conducts workshops, international study tours for civilian representatives in the various JMC levels, and bi-weekly meetings with the JMC-TSC. 

With support from the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expert discussions on future security and reintegration to support DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration) and SSR (Security Sector Reform), workshops on the Peace Process Review, and Security Sector Mapping workshops were held in 2021. Workshops on reviewing Myanmar's peace process and discussions on security sector reintegration were held in 2022. Workshops on Security Integration and Confidence Building were held in 2023, and discussions on humanitarian assistance continue in 2025. 

India, in collaboration with the NSPNC and with the facilitation of the Centre for Peace and Reconciliation (CPR), has already conducted four rounds of discussions under the theme ‘Constitutionalism and Federalism.’ The purpose of these discussions is to foster a deeper understanding of key constitutional concepts in the context of federal systems. The lecture series brings together a wide array of participants, including political leaders, academics, policymakers, and representatives from various organizations, to engage in meaningful discussions on constitutional issues and federal governance so that these insights can contribute to building a democratic and federal Union in Myanmar. 

The first time of discussions was held the first round was held over four days in June 2023 in Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw, with the participation of more than 100 representatives from the NSPNC, the Tatmadaw, government ministries, political parties, NCA-S EAOs, the CPR, and the Nay Pyi Taw State Academy.

The topics discussed included the historical background of India’s Constitution, the fundamental ideas of its founding leaders, the gradual process through which it evolved, and the role of the Governor. 

The second round of discussions was held over two days in November 2024 in New Delhi, India, with the participation of representatives from the NSPNC, CPR, political parties, and NCA-S EAOs. The six topics discussed during the workshop were the roles of the President and Governors under India’s Constitution, the reorganization of the Indian Federal Union, the division of powers and revenue sharing in a federal system, constitutional experiences at the subnational level from India’s perspective, India’s Panchayati Raj system, which is a local self-governance mechanism, and language, diversity, and harmonious coexistence in a modern nation. 

The third time of discussions was held the third round was held on 18 March 2025 at the India Centre in Yangon, Myanmar, with a total of 45 representatives from the NSPNC, CPR, political parties, and NCA-S EAOs in attendance.

During this session, three topics were discussed under the theme of Constitutionalism and federalism.

The fourth round was held on 18 November 2025 at the India Centre in Yangon, Myanmar, with the participation of representatives from the NSPNC, CPR, political parties, and NCA-S EAOs. The three topics discussed during this session were certain practical aspects of federalism in India’s border states, the role and space of regional political parties in India, and constitutional provisions for promoting diversity while safeguarding unity.

Through these discussions, we had the opportunity to learn about the roles of the President and Governors under India’s Constitution, the reorganization of the Indian Federal Union, the division of powers and revenue sharing in a federal system, constitutional experiences at the subnational level, the Panchayati Raj system of local self-governance, and India’s language policy. Gaining knowledge on India’s constitutional features and experiences, including the functioning of its federal system, has been highly beneficial for us in building a Union based on democracy and federalism in our country. I firmly believe that these insights will greatly support our efforts.

Table 1:  Anniversary events and turnouts

 
The 10th Anniversary of the NCA, including both the ceremony and the workshop, was held with full state-level formality and political significance, reflecting both substance and importance. The opening ceremony of the 10th Anniversary of the NCA, held under the motto ‘From NCA to Sustainable Peace, Shaping Our Future,’ was attended by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the Acting President, Chairman of the State Security and Peace Commission, and Chairman of the National Solidarity and Peacemaking Central Committee, who delivered the opening address. 

A total of more than 1,200 representatives attended the NCA ceremony, including NCA signatories, domestic and international witnesses, senior military officers, domestic and foreign think-tank scholars, the Chairman and members of the NSPNC, Chief Ministers of Regions and States, individuals who contributed to the emergence of the NCA, participants in the peace process, representatives from Ethnic Armed Organizations (both NCA-signatory and non-signatory EAOs), representatives from political parties, intellectuals, professionals from various sectors, and diplomats from embassies based in Myanmar. In addition, over 300 participants attended the workshop. 

At the discussion, some of the key points presented by international scholars from India, China, and Thailand regarding the NCA were as follows:

• Signing of the NCA was a watershed moment in Myanmar's history. It embodied the shared determination of diverse ethnic communities to set aside conflict and work out mutually acceptable federal democratic arrangements to achieve lasting peace. It is this spirit of the NCA that must be nurtured and strengthened. We strongly urge all its signatories and non-signatories to make full use of the NCA mechanism for holding substantive discussions and achieving concrete, negotiated and sustainable outcomes, rooted in the principles of democracy and federalism. The future of Myanmar depends on the success of the NCA process. The NCA will promote engagement and discussions among all relevant stakeholders, without unrealistic preconditions. In a country as diverse and as resource-rich as Myanmar, peace and stability can be brought only through concessions and compromises by all stakeholders working within a united Myanmar. The peace process must embrace all stakeholders and all stakeholders must find space in the dialogue. The goal of a federal democratic republic can be realized only through political dialogue and negotiations, in a spirit of give and take, rooted in a free, fair, federal, inclusive and credible democratic process.
• In the last 10 years, we are committed to assisting Myanmar government to end the war & promote peace in order to maintain peace & stability of the country. In recent years, according to the will of the relevant parties in Myanmar, China has assisted Tadmadaw to have several rounds of peace talk & sign ceasefire agreements with relevant EAOs, promoting stability & improvement of situation in the relevant areas. We stand ready to continue to play a constructive role in facilitating peace talks & mediation, in full respect of Myanmar's national sovereignty. We sincerely hope that the parties concerned of Myanmar's peace process adopt an open, inclusive, flexible and pragmatic approach, adhere to the general direction of ceasefire & peace talk, accumulate mutual trust & attract more EAOs to join the NCA, so as to realize the lasting peace of the country.
• The lesson of the NCA is clear: peace is possible, when courage is greater than fear, when dialogue is chosen over division, and when trust is built even among those who once stood on opposite sides. We firmly believe that peace in Myanmar must be Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned. Only the people of Myanmar can decide their future. But as a close friend, Thailand will always be there to listen, to assist, and to support whenever it can help. Elections alone cannot deliver peace. They are an important step, yes, but they must be “part and parcel” of a much broader peace process — one that includes dialogue, reconciliation, and above all, trust-building among all stakeholders.

The recommendations from the workshop with international scholars, together with the suggestions from the workshop with domestic scholars—approached from political, economic, and NCA perspectives, as well as future implementation plans—have been carefully reviewed and categorized. With permission, these recommendations have been submitted to the Head of State to enable their practical implementation. I firmly believe that these suggestions will enhance trust and cooperation among participants in the peace process and will support the continued implementation of peacebuilding and national development initiatives that are aligned with the current political context.

To the non-signatory EAOs and some detractors who claim, "The NCA is defunct, it is broken, the peace process is dead," I, the author, would say: "The peace process in Myanmar is still alive. The NCA is also alive and moving forward.”  Why do I say the NCA is alive?

A review of the statements and addresses concerning the NCA made by the State Leader, Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services, and Chairman of the NSPCC, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, as early as on February 27, 2021 till August 3, 2025, I have counted the number of reiterations he referred to NCA for 73 times, revealing the following salient points:

• "The NCA will be implemented with diligence to achieve nationwide lasting peace."
• "Efforts are being made for all ethnic armed organizations to participate in and sign the NCA."
• "All ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and stakeholders must be nationally conscious and careful not to deviate from the NCA path due to various pushes such as acts of terrorism and subversions under the influence of domestic and foreign propaganda, and narratives inciting violence."
• "The peace work should be based on the NCA and the 2008 Constitution, and should not undermine the ultimate goal of building of a Union based on democracy and a federal system."
• "The NCA is the most fundamental and crucial requirement for the nation's urgently needed peace process."
• "The NCA is a historic agreement ratified by the Union Parliament as the Union Accord, and it is a perpetually existing document that is never invalidated."

These points clearly show the focus and objective of the Tatmadaw to diligently implement the NCA.  Since internal peace is vital for national development, the Tatmadaw has issued a total of 27 unilateral ceasefire statements from December 21, 2018, to July 31, 2025, demonstrating its commitment to peace. All citizens should understand that peace can only be achieved through the path of dialogue and negotiation. 

The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) is not merely a ceasefire, but a political commitment of the Tatmadaw, which outlines the implementation of the peace process and the path to building a democratic and federal Union. It can also be argued as the only document in Myanmar's history that explicitly states the intention to build a federal Union.

The ongoing armed conflicts are causing massive destruction of homes, lives, and properties for the populations particularly in ethnic regions. Large numbers of people and youths are fleeing the fighting, not only missing out educational opportunities but also causing a significant loss of human capital for the nation's future. Therefore, it is imperative for the government to continue the NCA process aimed at conflict resolution.

The political aspirations, historical traditions, cultures, literature, languages, and national identities of all ethnic groups residing in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar must be accepted and acknowledged by the State, and all citizens must collectively build a Union identity based on this diversity of peoples and languages.

To achieve long-lasting peace, it is necessary to restore full procedures of NCA to negotiate and implement matters and processes related to Security Sector Reforms (NCA Article 30). This must be achieved under the agreed formula of a Union based on democracy and a federal system, with the step-by-step implementation of the Article 30 through negotiations and adjustments.

Based on the country's current reality, long-lasting peace can only be achieved if a genuine federal Union is built. It is essential to systematically negotiate, resolve, and reach agreements on “power sharing, resource sharing, and tax sharing” in accordance with the practices of federal system, ensuring that power-sharing formula also guarantees equality and autonomy for the constituent states.

However, the challenges remain.  From early 2016 onwards, there were clashes between some NCA signatory EAOs and the Tatmadaw, and the JMC was often weak in resolving the incidents in accordance with the NCA provisions.  Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the required work to systematically reactivate and reform the various levels of the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) to respond to the violations of the NCA agreements.

In the present era, there are malicious exile media attempting to disrupt the peace process; therefore, It is important for the public to receive objective news coverage while rejecting sensationalized, biased, and exaggerated reports, fabricated news, misinformation, and disinformation, hate speeches encouraging and supporting terrorist acts to mitigate violence.

As the leadership of the State Security and Peace Commission is systematically planning to hold the free and fair multi-party democratic general election in phases, starting on December 28, 2025, the NSPNC is planning to hold the 10th Anniversary ceremony in laying down the way forward "From NCA To Sustainable Peace Shaping Our Future," and "Identifying the Peace Process to Continue to Build a Peaceful Future of Myanmar."

Conclusion

In line with the State's policies, the NSPNC will continue to implement its NCA agenda for building a long-lasting, nationwide sustainable peace by continuously meeting and negotiating to build trust and promote national dialogue.  With this task in focus, NSPNC believes to restore the NCA process and achieve the building of a peaceful Myanmar based on democracy and a federal system.  This shall be achieved through the process of NCA and continuous integration of remaining non-signatories to the process.

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