Indian Council of World Affairs

Recent political developments in the Maldives indicate that the main opposition party of the Maldives, the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), seems to be pursuing a two-pronged strategy to re-establish itself as a credible political alternative to the ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) in the future. On one hand, the party is working towards internal cohesion, and on the other, it is trying to consolidate its political space by challenging the policies and governance of PNC government.

Focus on Internal Cohesion

At present, the MDP leadership appears to be addressing internal divisions that weakened the party in recent years. The party split before the 2023 presidential elections due to internal divisions between its two main leaders, Mohamed Nasheed and Ibrahim Solih, both former Presidents of the Maldives. A new party, the Democrats, was formed by some of the parliamentarians of the MDP, backed by Mohamed Nasheed. The split helped the PNC, led by Mohamed Muizzu, to win both the presidential (2023) and parliamentary elections (2024) with a comfortable majority. In the post-election years, however, the party leadership increasingly recognised the need for unity and present the MDP as a credible political alternative to the ruling PNC amidst the PNC government’s concentration of executive power through constitutional changes and legislation perceived to restrict and weaken the independence of key state institutions including the judiciary. Therefore, by June 2025, most members of the Democrats pledged to re-join the parent party, the MDP.[1]

According to the Democrats, the decision to return to the party was driven by three main reasons: to contest the local council elections which were held in April 2026 as part of a broader effort; for contributing to the development of the country by promoting an accountable state and to strengthen the multiparty political system by reinforcing the opposition.[2] The return of the Democrats significantly strengthened the MDP’s future electoral prospects. Meanwhile, the MDP Chairperson Mohamed Fayyaz Ismail resigned in November 2025 after declaring his intention to run for the presidential election on the MDP ticket in the 2028 elections. He also called for revising the party’s constitution to ensure that authority is not divided among multiple individuals within the party.[3] Subsequently, both the leaders of the party, Mohamed Nasheed and Ibrahim Solih, reiterated the need for rebuilding unity within the MDP, restoring organisational cohesion through grassroots mobilisation.[4]

The Election Commission officially dissolved the Democrats in June 2026 due to its failure to secure 3000 party members to continue as a political party under the Maldives Political Parties Act[5]. Amidst the internal debate and developments, the MDP held its chairperson election in June 2026 among party members. Party members chose Mohammed Nasheed as the chairperson of the party. He secured 69 per cent of total votes cast.[6] Of the 50,176 members eligible to vote in the election, 30,695 cast their votes.[7] Nasheed was the first chairperson of the party from June 2005 to February 2008. He was also the MDP president from 2014 until 2023.[8] According to the MDP constitution, the chairperson serves as the highest authority responsible for planning, organising, and managing the party's internal affairs, with a five-year tenure.[9] By this, Mohamed Nasheed’s political journey came a full circle.

Soon after the chairperson elections, the party announced the establishment of a special office named “Bodu Badhalu” (Big Change).[10] The special office will organise discussions, workshops, seminars, and other events related to the party’s reform agenda. Under the new leadership, the reform agenda for instance focus on issues such as the country’s system of governance, where the roles of head of state and the head of government may be separated.[11] Mohamed Nasheed also extended his support to Mohamed Fayyaz Ismail as the party’s future presidential candidate. It remains uncertain if the party will choose a consensus candidate at the presidential primaries scheduled to be held before the presidential elections in 2028.

A Counterweight to Ruling PNC?

The unity of opposition MDP was reflected in its performance at the local council elections held in April 2026. The MDP seems to have gained significant traction among the electorate, particularly in urban electorates, which constitute more than 40 per cent of the total electorate. The MDP also seized all five city mayor positions, including those in Malé, Addu City, Fuvahmulah, Thinadhoo and Kulhudhuffushi.^[12] Although the ruling party secured 584 seats in the council elections and the MDP, 563 seats, the narrow margin between the two parties suggests growing public dissatisfaction with the performance of the incumbent PNC government. In a nationwide referendum held on 4 April 2026, the people of the Maldives, have also rejected the government’s proposal to hold simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections. According to the Election Commission of the Maldives (ECM), 68.73 per cent of valid votes polled (215,846) rejected the proposal by the government.^[13] Together, the local council elections and the national referendum was widely viewed as a public verdict on President Muizzu’s government performance,  which has sought to introduce various political and economic reforms and a new foreign policy direction in the last two and a half years.

The government’s reform agenda has inadvertently, united the opposition, which has increasingly mobilised against its political and economic priorities. Along with opposition parties, civil society organisations also played an active role highlighting the possible implications of the referendum among the public.

The PNC came to power in 2023 with a strong mandate and emphasis on the “Maldives First Policy”. In the last two years, the government announced various flagship projects, such as “Maldives 2.0”, aimed at digitalisation and modernisation of governance. Various infrastructural and social initiatives were also undertaken. Nonetheless, the ruling party faced setbacks in the national referendum and local elections due to several factors. For instance, some of the bills were passed during expedited parliamentary sessions. An anti-defection law, a media bill, a constitutional amendment bill, and changes to the judicial commission and change to the composition of Supreme Court judges raised concerns. The constitutional amendment bill enabled the President to have a say in the independent institutions, such as the election commission and anti-corruption commission, by appointing members to these bodies, including the president and the vice-president of both commissions^[14]. Similarly, the suspension of three Supreme Court judges in 2025 and passing a bill to reduce the strength of Supreme Court (SC) judges from seven to five were perceived as attempts to undermine judicial independence.

Concerns of the Economy

The MDP has expressed concerns over the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its implications for both regional stability and the Maldivian economy. It blamed the ruling party’s preoccupation with centralising power through constitutional means rather than preparing the country for the economic consequences of rising oil prices.[15]

The economy of the Maldives has faced significant challenges in recent years. The repayment of external debt and maintenance of foreign exchange reserves has been a challenging task for the present government. The global economic uncertainty stemming from the developments in the Middle East has placed additional pressure on the country’s fragile economy and increased public concern over government’s economic management. The Maldives heavily relies on imports for its primary energy needs, and tourism driven foreign exchange earnings.^[16] The disruptions in the global energy supply chain have the potential to put pressure on the government to utilise its foreign reserves.

The country is largely dependent on the Gulf region for fuel supplies, tourism, fish exports, and transport connectivity. In 2025, the country spent MVR 10 billion on fuel imports, purchasing about 2.9 million barrels of oil.^[17] The fuel shortage due to developments in the Middle East, has hit the island nation, and the people are facing challenges in accessing the uninterrupted fuel supplies.^[18] Therefore, a Special Cabinet Committee was set up by the Government of Maldives in response to the ongoing Middle East crisis. The government also insisted that measures are being taken to diversify energy supply sources, reducing reliance on a limited number of countries to strengthen national fuel security.[19] Amidst the shifting political scenario the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a slow GDP growth rate of about one per cent in 2026, due to spill over from the Middle East conflict and weaker tourism activity and higher global energy prices.[20]

Conclusion

The MDP fought for democratic transition and multiparty elections in the island nation. Over the years, however, the party has to overcome internal divisions to emerge as united credible political force. It seems to be heading in that direction. The shifting power dynamics in Maldivian politics indicate an advantage for the MDP at present. The party seems to be addressing its past weaknesses and emerging as a viable alternative to the ruling PNC. At the same time, positive momentum gained by the MDP will also depend upon the unity among its leadership as well as consensus on political and economic reforms the new leadership of the party may propose in the future. Political parties play a significant role in any democratic transition and in strengthening democratic institutions. Nonetheless, the Maldivian attempts at democratic transition since 2008 have encountered several challenges in terms of reforms to state institutions, political instability, and economic vulnerability. The Maldives is also navigating an increasingly uncertain global order. In this context, MDP’s political gains will not only depend on how the ruling PNC will steer through the expectations of the public in the face of growing economic hardships; they will also depend on a show of unity by the leadership of the MDP in the coming months. 

*****

*Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[1] “Democrats fold, yoga charges and commission report”, June 17, 2025, https://maldivesindependent.com/news-in-brief/democrats-fold-yoga-charges-and-commission-report-98ce.

[2] “Democrats, Nasheed to rejoin MDP”, June 17, 2025, https://atolltimes.mv/post/news/12635.

[3] “Fayyaz resigns as MDP Chairman; cites tension over contesting in 2028 election”, November 24, 2025, https://en.mmtv.mv/7004.

[4] Ainy Waheed, “We Can Never Get Too Distant”- Nasheed and Solih Recommit to MDP Unity”, December 24, 2025, https://viraasee.com/en/article1641.

[5] “The Democrats and an additional party dissolved”, June 03, 2026, https://edition.mv/news/51444?ref=article-related.

[6] “MDP confirms Nasheed's victory in chairperson election”, June 15, 2026, https://atolltimes.mv/post/news/16267

[7] “MDP announces final results of Chairperson election”, June 15, 2026, https://adhadhu.com/83062

[8] “MDP confirms Nasheed's victory in chairperson election”, June 15, 2026, https://atolltimes.mv/post/news/16267.

[9] “MDP announces final results of Chairperson election”, June 15, 2026, https://adhadhu.com/83062.

[10] Malika Shahid, “MDP establishes ‘Bodu Badhalu’ office”, June 21, 2026, https://edition.mv/news/51868.

[11] Ibid

[12] Maldives Voice, “Voters Reject Muizzu Referendum, Give Opposition Mayoral Sweep”, April 06, 2026, https://maldivesvoice.com/2026/04/06/voters-reject-muizzu-referendum-give-opposition-mayoral-sweep/.

[13] The Election Commission of Maldives (ECM), https://results.elections.gov.mv/Results/SpecificElection?UniqueId=633b6e8f-96d9-4c6d-a9a4-1b8cf40c8926.

[14] Shamsul Falaah, “Maldives: Supermajority enables ‘rule by law”, March 06, 2026, https://www.scobserver.in/journal/maldives-supermajority-enables-rule-by-law/.

[15] The MDP Press Release, “Government’s Lack of Transparency over Middle East Fuel Crisis Concerning”, March 17, 2026, https://mdp.org.mv/en/press-statements/1385.

[16] Shiman, “A Paradise Under Pressure: How the Middle East War is Shaping the 2026 Maldivian Economic Forecast”, March 24, 2026, https://medium.com/@shiman.inc/a-paradise-under-pressure-how-the-middle-east-war-is-shaping-the-2026-maldivian-economic-forecast-82a7ff777b89.

[17] Ahmed Zaki Nafiz, “Ensuring Economic Security amidst the Insecurity of the War Against Iran”, April 15, 2026, https://mnu.edu.mv/ensuring-economic-security-amidst-the-insecurity-of-the-war-against-iran/.

[18] “Half a gas cylinder, double the diesel price: the oil shock hits Maldives”, March 17, 2026, https://maldivesindependent.com/economy/half-a-gas-cylinder-double-the-diesel-price-the-oil-shock-hits-maldives-d022.

[19] The President’s Office, Republic of Maldives, “Special Cabinet Committee briefs media on measures to address Middle East and Gulf tensions”, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/36327.

[20] The International Monetary Fund (IMF), “IMF Staff Completes 2026 Article IV Mission to the Maldives”, June 17, 2026, https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/06/16/pr-26208-maldives-imf-staff-completes-2026-article-iv-mission.