Indian Council of World Affairs

Introduction 

The Israel-Hamas war has already entered its eighth month, apparently with no hope of an early end given the stances of both Hamas and Israel. The persisting hostage crisis and unabated bombardment in Gaza and Rafah seem to be major obstructions in the way of reaching peace. Since the war broke out in October 2023, a series of peace initiatives have been taken by different actors, such as the United Nations (UN), the US, the EU, Qatar and Egypt, but all failed to bring anything tangible to the table except the temporary week-long truce reached in November 2023 which too failed to halt the war in Gaza as both sides continued to target each other. 

The ongoing war in Gaza has already left 35,000 Palestinians dead and more than 100,000 injured. Israel, too, has reported casualties of 700 of its soldiers. Today, most western countries are witnessing large-scale protests, mostly on university campuses, calling for a ceasefire. With the progress of war and diminishing hope of peace, and many countries have now become critical of civilian losses in Gaza. 

Even the coalition partners in Netanyahu’s government are divided over the approaches adopted by Israel’s military and the political leadership. While some are calling for the complete elimination of Hamas first, others are more concerned about the lives of Israeli captives. In light of the above, this paper will examine the trajectory of the eight months of peace initiatives taken to stop the conflict. It will also inquire about the reasons behind the failure of these peace efforts to end the Gaza war.  

A Glance into the Past Peace Efforts 

It is not for the first time that Israel, Palestine and other regional and global players are engaged in a hectic diplomatic effort to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. In the span of the last 45 years since the Camp David Accord was signed between Egypt and Israel in March 1979, there have been dozens of signing ceremonies either under the aegis of the US, the UN or the EU or the Quartet (the US, Russia, the UN and the EU). However, all these failed to bring permanent peace or resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. 

It was the Camp David Accord that changed the course of Arab-Israel politics when Egypt, a leader in the Arab world, unilaterally decided to establish its own bilateral relationship with Israel. The Camp David Accord was followed by the Madrid Conference (November 1991), organised at the behest of the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union soon after the liberation of Kuwait and just before the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It was the Oslo Conference of 1993 that promised some autonomy and partial self-governance to the Palestinians in exchange for the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO)’s recognition of the state of Israel.[i] Oslo had happened in a different geopolitical milieu when the US had emerged as the only superpower and Israel was under immense pressure to engage with Palestine. The PLO had lost its traditional support among the Arab world after Yasser Arafat had supported Iraq in its war against Kuwait to the chagrin of Arab leaders. In 1995, both Israel and Palestine met again in the White House to evaluate the progress of the 1993 Oslo Accord, and a few amendments were introduced as the core feature of the 1993 Oslo Accord. The amended document was known as Oslo II. Again, in 2000, another Camp David Accord took place under the patronage of President Bill Clinton, but it too became the victim of the obduracy of both sides. The 2000 Camp David Accord was a follow-up to a brief encounter between newly elected Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and Yasser Arafat in 1998, known as the Wye River Meeting or Accord. The more the accords were failing to bring peace, the more the situation on the ground was becoming precarious. 

Between 2002 and 2003, a series of frameworks for peace were introduced, the most prominent being the Arab Peace Initiative (2002). This initiative was taken by the then Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who stipulated for the recognition of the state of Israel by all the Arab countries in exchange for the withdrawal of Israel to pre-1967 borders but was dismissed by the erstwhile Prime Minister of Israel, Ariel Sharon, as a monster and a means for the destruction of the state of Israel.[ii] Later, in 2003, a Quartet consisting of the US, Russia, the UN and the EU was formed, which offered a proposal for a two-state solution over the course of three years. Similarly, there were the Gaza disengagement plan of 2005, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s 2008 plan and the latest in the series, President Trump’s ‘Deal of the Century’.[iii] However, all failed to bring any peace or any progress in pursuit of a two-state solution. 

UN Resolutions and Voting   

Within three weeks of the beginning of the military operation in Gaza in October, following the Hamas attack on Israel, a Brazil-drafted resolution was brought in the UNSC on October 18, 2023, calling for a pause in the fighting to allow humanitarian assistance but it was vetoed by the US. Twelve members endorsed the resolution, while Russia and the UK abstained.[iv] The US rejected the Brazil-drafted resolution because it did not talk about Israel’s right to self-defence. After the failure of Brazil-drafted resolution, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted a Jordan-drafted non-binding resolution on October 27 2023, calling for a humanitarian truce and the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas. The resolution received 120 ‘Yes’ and 14 ‘No’ votes, while 45 members abstained.[v] Most of the ‘Yes’ votes came from African and Asian countries. The Jordan-drafted resolution neither condemned the October 7 attack nor made any mention of the release of Israeli captives. 

On November 15 2023 again, the UNSC adopted a Malta-drafted resolution[vi] after a prolonged negotiation. The resolution primarily talked of the release of the hostages and plight of the children in Gaza. The resolution demanded the immediate release of Israeli hostages taken captive by Hamas and urged for extended humanitarian pause and corridors throughout Gaza. The Malta-drafted resolution also rejected the force displacement of civilian people in violation of international law as well as international humanitarian laws.[vii]

But the resolution neither condemned the Israeli indiscriminate bombing nor called for halting the war. Twelve members of the UNSC voted in favour of the resolution while the US, Russia and the UK abstained from the voting. The US and the UK criticised the Malat-drafted resolution because it did not condemn Hamas’s actions and the US also said that Hamas was responsible for setting this conflict in motion.[viii] Russia abstained because the resolution, according to them, did not seek the immediate ceasefire. Before the Malta-drafter resolution, two resolutions including one by Russia could not be brought for deliberation in the UNSC because they failed to secure a minimum of 9 ‘Yes’ votes from UNSC members needed for any further deliberation. 

On December 7, 2023, it was a major surprise when UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres invoked Article 99 of the UN Charter to hasten UNSC action on the war in Gaza. This rare action came after the constant failure of the UNSC to impose a truce in Gaza.[ix] General Antonio invoked the clause, claiming that the Gaza war may pose an existing threat to international peace and security.[x] In a letter to the UNSC President, Antonio Guterres stated that eight weeks of hostilities in Gaza have created appalling human suffering.[xi] However, this too failed to get approval for a ceasefire by the UNSC after the US vetoed it,[xii] but the clause on the enhancement of aid was approved. 

After another failure of the UNSC to halt the war, UNGA adopted another resolution on December 12 2023, titled “Protection of Civilians and Upholding Legal and Humanitarian Obligation” with 153 ‘Yes’ votes and 10 ‘No’ votes.[xiii] Again UNGA failed to adopt an amendment introduced by Austria that spoke of the release of the hostages held by Hamas,[xiv] while the similar amendment introduced by Canada in the past was defeated by 88–55 votes.[xv]

In another UNSC resolution of December 22, 2023, calling on the warring parties to the conflict to protect civilian life and ensure immediate and unhindered delivery of humanitarian assistance,[xvi] the US and Russia abstained. The US Ambassador to the UN, Thomas-Greenfield, called the vote a glimmer of hope but rebuked the Council for not condemning Hamas.[xvii] Another UNSC resolution drafted by Algeria was vetoed by the US on February 20, 2024, which demanded an immediate and permanent ceasefire and the unconditional release of all the Israelis made captives by Hamas.[xviii] The US, instead, called for a temporary ceasefire, and it was also opposed to the word ‘immediate’. The US further said this resolution could jeopardise the ongoing talks in Doha and Cairo. On March 21, 2024, the US submitted its own resolution to the UNSC, making the ceasefire contingent upon the release of the hostages, but no discussion could take place on it. 

A major breakthrough came on March 25, 2024, when the UNSC passed a resolution for the first time calling for an immediate ceasefire,[xix] and perhaps it became possible only after the US, for the first time in recent years, abstained from voting on the issue of Israel.[xx] This abstention was seen by some as a result of mounting pressure against its alleged partisan role in the Israel-Hamas war. This move on the part of the US also appeared to be a sign of a growing rift between the US and Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed his displeasure and, reacting to the US’ abstention, said that the US altered its past stance,[xxi] and he also called off a plan to send a delegation to the US.[xxii] However, the US said that this abstention should not be taken as a change in the US’ policy vis-à-vis Israel, and the US did not support the resolution because it was devoid of any condemnation of Hamas. 

Amidst this endless failure of the UNSC to end the war, the UNGA passed a resolution on May 10, 2024, for consideration of the UNSC inducting Palestine into the UN as a full-fledged member.[xxiii] The UNGA resolution was endorsed by 143 members, while 9 members opposed it and 25 chose to remain absent.[xxiv] However, the US, as expected, vetoed the resolution, while the UK and Switzerland decided to abstain.[xxv] Earlier in April, the US vetoed a similar resolution when Palestine submitted a request to the Secretary-General seeking reconsideration of Palestine’s 2011 request to become a UN member.[xxvi]

Peace Initiatives of France, UK and EU 

Apart from these UN-led initiatives, French President Macron called a conference in Paris on November 9, 2023, seeking more humanitarian aid and ceasefire.[xxvii] On the occasion, Macaron said that in the immediate term, we need to work on protecting civilians, and for that, we need a humanitarian pause very quickly.[xxviii] There could be no double standard, and the protection of civilians is non-negotiable.[xxix] France announced plans to enhance financial support from the current 20 to 100 million Euro (US$ 107 million). However, he also blamed Hamas for exposing the Palestinians to these terrible consequences and defended Israel’s right to self-defence.[xxx] This conference was organised on the sidelines of the annual Paris Peace Forum and attended by officials and organisations from around 80 countries, including Arab and UN officials. 

Apart from the above-mentioned conference, France hosted the Intelligence Chiefs of the US, Israel and Egypt and the Prime Minister of Qatar on January 27, 2024, which stipulated a three-phase humanitarian pause. This initiative was called the Paris Framework.[xxxi] Under this framework, 30–40 Israeli hostages (women and elders with serious illnesses) were to be released during the first six weeks, followed by the release of other ordinary soldiers in the second and third phases. In exchange, Palestinians detained in Israeli jails would be released in a three-for-one swap. It was also agreed that each phase would be accompanied by a pause in fighting and enhanced delivery of aid to northern and southern Gaza. The Paris Framework failed because Hamas, as usual, sought a complete end to war in the first phase only, which was rejected by Israel. 

Along with the UN and French initiatives, the British government offered its own five-point plan to end the war and resolve the hostage crisis. The plan was first revealed during the regional tour of British Foreign Secretary David Cameron in November 2023. The plan first talked about the release of all the hostages, followed by the creation of a political horizon for the establishment of the state of Palestine, which would be run by a team of technocrats. Under the plan, senior Hamas leaders would have to move out of Gaza to some other countries,[xxxii] and there would be a regional security mechanism to prevent a repeat of the October 7. 

In the first week of January 2024, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrel, also revealed a ten-point plan to be discussed in the proposed foreign ministerial meeting of the EU members. The centrepiece of the plan was called the ‘Preparatory Peace Conference’, which would involve the EU, the US, the Arab League, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UN.[xxxiii] The principal point of the plan envisaged the rule of the Palestinian Authority over both the West Bank and Gaza, and Hamas would have no role in the governance. A framework for peace would be submitted to both sides to negotiate the final text after a year of comprehensive negotiation among themselves and two warring factions. 

While the UN and other major powers were more focused on ending the war between Israel and Hamas, China in the last week of April hosted the representatives of Fatah and Hamas, asking them to end the intra-party rift and work for reconciliation among various political factions. A Chinese official source said that both sides had agreed to work to narrow their political differences and coordinate more closely.[xxxiv]  

Cairo Peace Summit and Riyadh Arab-Islamic Summit  

Amidst the rising death toll in Gaza, Egypt called a meeting of Arab-Islamic and Western leaders, officially named the Cairo Peace Summit, on October 21, 2023, to deescalate the situation on the ground and discuss the future of Palestine.^[xxxv] The Summit was attended by 34 countries, along with the UN and other international bodies.^[xxxvi] Apart from others, the Summit was attended by the UN Secretary General, the President of South Africa, the Prime Minister of Spain, representatives of Italy and Iraq^[xxxvii] Foreign Ministers of the UK, Germany, France and Japan, the King of Jordan and Bahrain and the Emir of Qatar. The Summit was, however, more in the nature of diplomatic endeavours. The representatives from western countries did not show urgency to halt the ongoing Israeli aggression.^[xxxviii] It is also worth mentioning here that Egypt took the lead on Gaza by hosting this Summit because of its traditional role as a mediator and arbitrator of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and Egypt could not have let other countries usurp its central role that would dim its geopolitical sway in the region. 

The extraordinary Arab and Islamic joint Summit was held in Riyadh on November 11, 2023.^[xxxix] The Summit meeting was chaired by the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, to discuss the Israeli aggression against the Palestinians in Gaza. The Arab-Islamic Summit was attended by the Presidents of Turkiye, Egypt, Tajikistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Indonesia, Djibouti, Egypt and Somalia; the Emir of Qatar; the King of Jordan; the Prime Ministers of Malaysia, Morocco and Uzbekistan; the Vice President of the UAE; the Crown Prince of Kuwait; the Heads of the Yemeni and Libyan Presidential Council; and the President of the Palestinian Authority. 

The Secretary General of the AL, Ahmad Aboul Gheit, said that a ceasefire in Gaza is the top priority of the current Summit, while the OIC Secretary General called for a safe corridor for the delivery of aid to the victims of Gaza. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia sought an immediate cessation of Israeli military operations and urged that a state of Palestine be established on the 1967 border.^[xl] Mr. Abbas, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, said that Israel has crossed all red lines, termed the ongoing operation a war of extermination and urged the international community to address the refugee crisis. The King of Jordan accused Israel of committing war crimes by cutting water, food and electricity to Gaza and said that the international community has failed to do justice. The Emir of Qatar also expressed the same view.^[xli] Iran, on its part, thanked the Kingdom for hosting the Summit and called for harmony and unity among the OIC member countries. The resolution, consisting of 32 recommendations, passed at the end of the Summit strongly rejected Israel’s retaliation in Gaza as Israel’s self-defence and called upon the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to adopt a binding resolution to halt the war. The 32-point resolution also called for extending all support to Egypt in its efforts to provide assistance to the victims of Gaza.^[xlii] It also called for a complete arm embargo against Israel and asked the International Criminal Court to investigate the Israeli war crimes committed during its military operation.^[xliii]

Qatar, Egypt, Israel, the US: The new “Quartet” for Peace   

Soon after the military operation began in Gaza, many countries and international organisations began to call for an immediate ceasefire and do more to stop the killing of civilians. 

The first Hamas-Israel four-day truce happened merely as a result of joint efforts and shuttle diplomacy between Israel, the US, Egypt and Qatar, including the meeting between President Al-Sisi and the CIA Chief in Egypt on November 3, 2023, in Cairo. The truce for the prisoner swap was announced on November 24, 2023. As agreed, Israel freed 39 Palestinians (all children and women), and in exchange, Hamas released 24 of the Israeli hostages.[xliv] The four-day truce was further extended for an additional three days, and Hamas released another group of hostages, taking the number of freed hostages to 100 and 240 Palestinian prisoners, respectively.[xlv] It was also agreed that in the second round of the truce, Israel would release 150 Palestinians in exchange for the release of the other fifty hostages.[xlvi] However, no further truce could be reached because Israel resumed the bombardment of Gaza, and Netanyahu said that the war will continue until Hamas is eliminated both from Gaza and the West Bank.[xlvii] 

The success of the November truce was followed by an intense and prolonged phase of diplomatic negotiations, which can be best described as ‘shuttle diplomacy’. The official representatives from Israel, the US, Egypt and Qatar continued to meet among themselves either in Cairo or Doha with the dual objectives of stopping the war and enabling the release of Israeli hostages. William Burns, CIA Chief, was a key player in the efforts of US President Joe Biden's administration to negotiate a deal between Hamas and Israel. He was also in regular contact with David Barnea, Mossad Chief, Israel's main official in charge of hostage negotiations. Between the November truce and the failed fortnight-long Cairo negotiations (April–May 2024), dozens of negotiations were held between the US, Egypt, Israel and Qatar to stop the rising toll of civilians, increase aid to the besieged people of Gaza and free the Israeli hostages. 

In the middle of the November truce, David Barnea visited Qatar on November 28 and met his US counterpart and senior Qatari officials for the extension of the truce.[xlviii] This was his third visit to Qatar since October 7. On November 25, 2023, a Qatari official delegation also visited Israel[xlix] to stop the collapse of the ceasefire. It was the first public interaction between Israel and Qatar, marking an extraordinary movement for both countries. Weeks after the visit of the Qatari delegation to Israel, Qatar’s Foreign Minister Abdul Rahman Al Thani met David Barnea on December 16, 2023, in Brussel to discuss the resumption of negotiations for the release of other groups of Israeli detainees. 

In February 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in his fifth round of visits to the region (Saudi Arabia, Israel, Jordan, the UAE and Israel) since October 7, met Saudi officials in Riyadh and called for an immediate ceasefire and enforced an irreversible step towards the two-state solution. On February 8, 2024, Qatari and Egyptian senior officials held talks with David Barnea and William Burns, to halt the war and ensure the release of Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners. The talk could not move ahead because of the constant threat of ground offensives in Rafah by Israel. William Burns again headed to Cairo on February 13 to hold talks on the ceasefire and hostages’ release. 

Again, on February 25, 2024, William Burns, Abdul Rahman Al-Thani and David Barnea met in Cairo in the presence of Egyptian officials, but no progress was made as the Israeli side was reportedly told that they had nothing new to offer.

The early days of March witnessed a hectic diplomatic effort to broker a ceasefire before the beginning of the holy month of Muslims (Ramadhan). A marathon two-day meeting was held in Cairo between Egypt, Qatar and the US as Israel decided not to attend. However, there was no headway as Hamas stuck to its old demands of ending the war and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.[l] One of the spokespersons for Hamas said that Israel did not want to reach an agreement, and now the ball is in the US court to press Israel to come back to the negotiating table.[li] Soon after the Cairo debacle, David Barnea reached Doha on March 17[lii] to hold talks with Qatar’s PM and an Egyptian official on the ceasefire and release of the hostages. To halt the war in the month of Ramadhan, Jordan’s Foreign Minister and the US Assistant Secretary of State met in Amman on March 17,[liii] but nothing was achieved. On March 20, 2024, the CIA Chief and Mossad Chief again visited Qatar to hold a fresh round of talks, which primarily aimed to reduce the gap between the demands and expectations of the two warring sides, as Israel had always rejected Hamas’s demand for a permanent cessation of war in exchange for the release of the captives. 

After a series of failed attempts by the Quartet (Qatar, Egypt, Israel and the US), Egypt hosted a two-week-long marathon round of negotiations, which was attended by Hamas, Israel, Qatar and the US. The US and Israeli sides were represented by the CIA and Mossad Chiefs, respectively, while Qatar was represented by its Prime Minister. The talk lasted between April 26 and May 4, but eventually suffered the fate of the past. The talk finally collapsed after Israel went for an all-out ground offensive in Rafah despite the US’ calls against it and global criticism. Even in the middle of the Cairo talks, Blinken travelled to Israel on May 1 but failed to convince Netanyahu against the Rafah offensive, as Israel believes that four major Hamas battalions are still present in Rafah.[liv] The Hamas spokesperson had already told Al-Manar TV in an interview that if the enemy carries out the Rafah operation, negotiations will stop and that is what happened.[lv] 

During the marathon Cairo talks, Hamas stuck to its earlier demands of a permanent cessation of war, the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza, the release of Palestinian prisoners and safe passage for the displaced people to return to Gaza.[lvi] But Israel rejected all and instead refused to join any further negotiations without the release of its hostages. 

The apparently failed Cairo initiative proposed a three-phase plan. The first will begin with a six-week cease-fire accompanied by the release of 33 Israeli hostages and the partial pullout of Israeli forces from Gaza, along with dismantling some of its military facilities there. In exchange, Israel would free 100 Palestinian prisoners, including those convicted of life imprisonment.[lvii] In the second phase, Israeli forces will begin to withdraw from Gaza, and the third phase will begin with the establishment of a sustainable period of calm.[lviii] On May 6, Hamas informed Qatar and Egypt of the agreement, and some sources reported that Israel too had consented to the deal. 

But before the people in Gaza and the West Bank could fully believe the news and celebrate the deal, Israel announced the rejection of the deal, claiming that the proposal Hamas agreed to was far from Israel’s core demands.[lix] Israel also said that what Hamas had accepted was a softened version of the Egyptian proposal,[lx] and there was a discrepancy between what Hamas had endorsed and what Israel had helped Egypt craft. Israel rejected the clause calling for a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.[lxi] It is worth recalling here that William Burns, before joining the Cairo talks, travelled to Doha to work with Qatar on the draft proposal, and only after seeing the draft did Israeli send its delegation to Cairo.[lxii] Before the Cairo talks, Egypt too had sent a high-level delegation under its Intelligence Chief, Abbas Kamal, to Israel on April 26 to brief Israel about the draft resolution, and Israel had told the delegation that it would be a last chance before it began its Rafah offensive.[lxiii]

Egypt left no stone unturned to prevent the Rafah offensive because of the fear of its spread into its own territories, but it failed. Later, it was also reported that Netanyahu wanted the Cairo negotiations to move under the Paris Framework mentioned above. Since the collapse of the Cairo talks, there has been a complete stalemate amidst the ongoing Rafah offensive. As a result of the Rafah offensive, around a million people have been displaced again from Rafah who had earlier sought shelter in Rafah following the bombardment of northern and central Gaza. What seems to jeopardise the future of negotiation is Israel’s accusation against Qatar of being partisan and behaving like a Hamas representative instead of a mediator. Qatar denied the blame and said that Israel was trying to undermine the peace efforts. Israel also expressed its displeasure over the US renewing its base deal with Qatar without exerting enough pressure on it to do more for the release of Israeli captives. [lxiv] 

Before the Cairo talks, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi had visited Jordan on April 1 to meet his counterpart. Both sides called for more aid for the people of Gaza and were against the idea of transferring the people of Gaza to Sinai, as had been proposed by a former Israeli Minister,[lxv] which was also revealed in an Israeli intelligence document.[lxvi] In a statement, President Al-Sisi said that the forced transfer of residents of Gaza to Senai could jeopardise the decades-old Camp David Accord.[lxvii] Since October 7, Egypt has hosted several Heads of State, Prime Ministers, Foreign Ministers and representatives of regional and international organisations to explore peace. Hamas Bureau Chief Ismail Haniya himself travelled to Egypt twice in November and December 2023 and met Egyptian Intelligence Chief Abbas Kamel and other officials.[lxviii]

Why Peace Efforts are Failing? 

Now the question arises, why have these multiple efforts and series of negotiations over the last seven months failed to change the situation on the ground. Despite the marathon round of negotiations and a prolonged phase of shuttle diplomacy between the Quartet members, no ceasefire could be implemented, barring a one-week-long truce in November, while significant numbers of Israelis are still in Gaza as hostages, if they are alive at all. There could be many explanations for this repeated failure, but the most striking reason seems to be the refusal of both sides to narrow their demands or moderate their stances. Since the inception of the negotiations, Israel has repeatedly said that its principal objective is to destroy Hamas as a military and political force and that there will be no permanent cessation of war in Gaza. On the other hand, Hamas is bent on seeking a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The negotiations are not only marred by a lack of trust, but there is a huge gap between the expectations and demands of the conflicting sides. Further, there is no face-to-face negotiation between the principal adversaries, and the main leadership of the respective side is not involved. [lxix] 

Similar to the political and ideological divide within the Israeli establishment, Hamas leadership is equally divided, particularly between those who are operating on the ground in Gaza, such as Yahaya Sanwar, Hamas Gaza Bureau Chief and Mohammad Deif, and those who are holding office in Qatar, like Ismail Haniya, Hamas Bureau Chief. Though Haniya is a senior leader in the hierarchy, Sanwar also commands a high level of respect. After October 7, he has emerged as an unchallenged hero in Palestine.[lxx] 

Meanwhile, the political complexities and nature of coalition politics in Israel are also obstructing the prospect of peace. There are hawkish elements in the cabinet of Netanyahu, like Bezalel Smotrich, Finance Minister and Itamar Ben-Gvir, Internal Security Minister, who first want the elimination of Hamas regardless of the lives of hostages and the mounting toll within the army. While others are more concerned with the hostages and want their immediate release. Today, Netanyahu’s cabinet is fully controlled by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have completely rejected any ceasefire, even though they are in favour of military control of Gaza after the end of the war. Itamar Ben-Gvir has already threatened through his X platform that any ceasefire deal would be reckless and mean the dissolution of the government.[lxxi] He also accused President Biden of sounding pro-Hamas by calling to halt the weapon supply to Israel. Other far-right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet and Knesset, too, are keen to see the elimination of Hamas forever. Netanyahu is under constant pressure, and he cannot go against their will because any such move could cost him his job, which would be a political disaster for him at the moment.[lxxii] Similarly, some of the demands by Hamas would be unacceptable to Israel, as one Hamas leader, in an interview, sought the release of veteran Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti, who is serving a life sentence. The last round of negotiations in Cairo ended soon after Israel launched its ground offensive in Rafah. The offensive did not come as a surprise, as Netanyahu had already vowed to go for the Rafah offensive regardless of the success or failure of the Cairo peace plan, not to mention Netanyahu’s repeated rejection of the demands for an independent and sovereign state of Palestine, which continued to obstruct any progress on the Israel-Palestine peace negotiation. What seemed to stop the negotiation from progressing further is Netanyahu’s post-war Gaza plan, where he has repeatedly declared to maintain an indefinite military presence and a nominal role for the Palestinian Authority.[lxxiii] 

Conclusion 

In light of the above narratives, it can be concluded that the ongoing Israel-Hamas war will not end soon as both the warring sides are stuck to demands that are mutually unacceptable to each other. Except for the November truce, none of the successive negotiations have been able to lower the pace of the conflict, as the toll is rising every day and the hopes for the lives of Israeli hostages are diminishing. As mentioned above, it is not the first time that we are witnessing the failure of negotiations or peace efforts, but what is worrisome is the large number of deaths and failure of the UN-like institution to change the course of events or enable peace. Since the dismantling of Israeli settlements in Gaza and converting it into an exclusive enclave for Palestinians in 2005, many wars have taken place between Gaza and the Israeli forces but none has lasted for so long or caused such large-scale damage. It is not the case with Gaza alone but none of the past Israel-Arab conflict has lasted for so long, and perhaps no past negotiations have been so intense and involved so many actors. 

Even countries like the UK and France came with their own initiatives but were found lacking in content, which could have been acceptable to both sides. There was never a moment throughout this negotiation when any of the factions showed any leniency, and if the nature of the coalition politics in Israel has not allowed peace to emerge, the same is true about Hamas, which perhaps fails to understand the asymmetric nature of the power relationship and its refusal to moderate its demands or address Israel’s concerns. The current conflict has exposed the limitations of the US’ capacity to influence the domestic policy of Israel. Meanwhile, Israel is faced with many voices in past few months that are envisaging a permanent peace through the prism of the establishment of an independent state of Palestine.

*****

*Dr. Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of  World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Letter of Russian and US Envoys addressed to UN Secretary-General, October 8 1993, Accessed,  https://shorturl.at/XMd2Z May 22, 2024

[ii] Arab Offers Israel Peace Plan, BBC, March 29, 2002, Accessed   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1898736.stm April 3, 2024

[iii] Ali Herb, Three Years on: US still views Syria’s Golan as Israel territory, Aljazeera English, March 25, 2022, accessed  https://t.ly/fMrFA May 12, 2024.

[iv]US Vetoes Resolution Calling for Humanitarian truce, Aljazeera English, October 18 2023, Accessed  https://acesse.dev/7OOsx April 27, 2024.

[v] UNGA Calls for Humanitarian Truce, US News, October 27, 2023, Accessed  https://t.ly/LLS2n April 19, 2024.

[vi] UNSC adopted Malata resolution, Malatineu.gov.mt, November 15, 2023,Accessed   https://shorturl.at/4oDev  Amy 31, 2024

[vii] Security Council Resolution 2712(2023), Accessed  https://shorturl.at/Zd6ns  May 31, 2024

[viii] Timeline: The Biden administration in its own words on Gaza, Aljazeera English, March 7, 2024, Accessed   https://acesse.dev/r0hpm May 22, 2024.

[ix]Robert Tollast, What is UN Article 99, The National, December 7, 2023, Accessed  https://t.ly/KkjtS April 25, 2024.

[x] Claudia De Martino, The Israel-Gaza War and International Diplomacy, Aspenia, March 05, 2024, Accessed https://t.ly/mmqiT May 01, 2024.

[xi] Robert Tollast, What is UN Article 99 https://t.ly/KkjtS

[xii]Inci Syki, Timeline: How the Israel-Palestine Peace Process Fell Apart, Frontline, November 27, 2023, Accessed,  https://l1nq.com/DwhZy April 2, 2024

[xiii]UNGA adopts resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire, UN Press release, December 12, 2023, Accessed https://press.un.org/en/2023/ga12572.doc.htm April 8, 2024.

[xiv] UNGA adopts resolution calling for immediate unilateral ceasefirehttps://press.un.org/en/2023/ga12572.doc.htm

[xv] UNGA Calls for Humanitarian Truce https://t.ly/LLS2n

[xvi] UNSC adopts key resolution on Gaza, US and Russia abstains, UN Press release, December 22, 2023, Accessed  https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1145022 May 24, 2024.

[xvii] Timeline: The Biden administration in its own words on Gaza https://rb.gy/ac9muy  

[xviii] US blocks ceasefire call with third UNSC veto, Reuter, Feb 21, 2024, Accessed  https://l1nq.com/r1cTw May 2, 2024.

[xix] Raffi Berg, UNSC passes resolution calling for Gaza ceasefire, March 26, 2024, Accessed https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68658415 May 13, 2024.

[xx]Raffi Berg, UNSC passes resolution calling for Gaza ceasefire https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68658415

[xxi] Raffi Berg, UNSC passes resolution calling for Gaza ceasefire https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68658415

[xxii] Samuel Chamberlain, Netanyahu Scraps DC delegation trip, New York Post, March 25, 2024, Accessed https://t.ly/n8g1_ May 25, 2024.

[xxiii]UNGA passes resolution for UNSC to reconsider Palestinian membership in UN, The Guardian, May 10, 2024, Accessed http://tiny.cc/nao7yz May 23, 2024.

[xxiv] UNGA passes resolution for UNSC to reconsider Palestinian membership in UN. http://tiny.cc/zao7yz  

[xxv] Richard Rothe, US vetoes Palestinian attempt to get statehood, CNN, April 24, 2024, Accessed http://tiny.cc/4bo7yz May 02, 2024.

[xxvi] US vetoes Palestinian request for full UN membership, UN press release, April 18, 2024,Accessed   https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148731 May 22, 2024.

[xxvii] Gaza aid conference presses for ceasefire, France 24, November 9, 2023, Accessed http://tiny.cc/pbo7yz April 4, 2024.

[xxviii]Gaza aid conference presses for ceasefire. http://tiny.cc/pbo7yz 

[xxix] Parsi host humanitarian conference for Gaza, Euro News (Arabic), November 9, 2023, Accessed http://tiny.cc/5zp6yz April 28, 2024.

[xxx] French President opens Gaza aid conference, El Pais, November 9, 2023, Accessed  http://tiny.cc/byp6yz April 2, 2024  

[xxxi] Israel-Palestine Conflicts: latest development, CNN(Arabic) January 27, 2024, Accessed https://rb.gy/qvsw6pApril 30, 2024.

[xxxii] Five-point British plan to end Gaza ceasefire, Al-Sharq (Arabic) January 27, 2024, Accessed    https://acesse.dev/1RWwd March 24, 2024.

[xxxiii] Maria Psara & Jorge Liboreiro, Revealed: Borrel Ten-Point peace roadmap for Israel-Palestine conflict, Euronews, January 11, 2024, Accessed  https://encr.pw/mwzLp May 10, 2024.

[xxxiv]Ali Abo Mrehil, Why did China host unity talk between Fatah and Hamas, The New Arab, May 8, 2024, Accessed   https://encr.pw/197qN May 22, 2024.

[xxxv]What We should know about Cairo Summit on Gaza, Euro news, October 21, 2023, Accessed  https://acesse.dev/9KW0c November 21, 2023.

[xxxvi]World Leaders Arrive in Egypt for Summit, CNN, October 21, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/XHqbB November 13, 2023

[xxxvii]World Leaders Arrive in Egypt for Summit, https://acesse.dev/XHqbB

[xxxviii]Ragip Soylu, Israel-Palestine War: Saudi Plans to Host a Gaza Summit,  https://acesse.dev/wvZRx

[xxxix] Extraordinary Ministerial Meeting of Arab-Islamic Summit, OIC Report, November 11, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/5VRxw November 13, 2023.

[xl] Extraordinary Arab Summit, MBS for State of Palestine on 1967 border, Lebanon File, November 11, 2023, Accessed shttps://encr.pw/X4h70 November 17, 2023.

[xli] Extraordinary Arab Summit, MBS for State of Palestine on 1967, https://encr.pw/X4h70

[xlii] Thirty-Two Recommendations: Statements of the Riyadh Sumit, Ikhbarul-al-Youm (Arabic), November 11, 2023, Accessed   https://acesse.dev/B9nkT November 13, 2023.

[xliii] Arab League and OIC Summit on Gaza Calls for Arms Embargo, https://l1nq.com/F5fbI

[xliv] 24 Hostages and 33 Palestinians released in Israel-Hamas truce, CNBC News, November 25, 2023,Accessed  https://rb.gy/2vc810 March 23, 2024.

[xlv] Hamas leaders visit Cairo: A sign of movement on possible Gaza truce, NPR, December 20, 2024, Accessed  https://acesse.dev/dFjXE April 28, 2024.

[xlvi] Who are the Palestinian prisoners Israel released, Aljazeera English, November 24, 2023, Accessed, https://rb.gy/typpgf March 24, 2024

[xlvii]  Nicole Narea, The many many times Israelis and Palestinians tried to make peace, Vox, November 23, 2023, Accessed   https://rb.gy/7wmxjo May 10 2024.

[xlviii] Mossad Chief Barnea in Qatar, will meet CIA chief, The Times of Israel, November 28, 2023, Accessed  https://encr.pw/ai9Tn March 22, 2024.

[xlix]Isabel Debre, Qatar is the go-to mediator in the Mideast war, AP News, November 28, 20233, Accessed  https://acesse.dev/XRpkw March 1, 2024.

[l]Qatar says continuing efforts to reach Gaza truce, Middle East Monitor, March 12, 2024, Accessed  https://l1nq.com/nHtcK April 22, 2024.

[li]Gaza ceasefire talks appear to stall, The Guardian, March 5, 2024, Accessed  https://acesse.dev/iipqO April 24, 2024.

[lii] Middle East Crisis.: Ceasefire talks expected to resume, The Guardian, March 16, 2024 Accessed https://acesse.dev/WTFGf April 2, 2024.

[liii] https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240317-jordan-us-discuss-efforts-for-immediate-cease-fire-in-gaza/

[liv]Blinken’s Israel visit fails to change Netanyahu’s mind, CNN (Arabic), May 01, 2024, Accessed  https://encr.pw/yU5Gu May 23, 2024.

[lv] Middle East Crisis: Hamas Resists Israel’s Latest Ceasefire Offer, New York Times, May 7, 2024, Accessed https://encr.pw/Ak5ue May 22, 2024.

[lvi] Sam Mednik, Progress reported in Gaza truce, Los Angles Times, May 4, 2024, Accessed https://rb.gy/kfmegz May 22, 2024.

[lvii] Isabel Karshner, What to know about the gaps between Israel and Hamas, https://acesse.dev/tGNv6   

[lviii] Israel Gaza, Hamas says it accepts the ceasefire proposal, BBC, May 7, 2024, accessed, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68964108 May 10, 2024.

[lix] Isabel Karshner, What to know about the gaps between Israel and Hamas, https://acesse.dev/tGNv6   

[lx] Israel Gaza, Hamas says it accepts the ceasefire proposal, BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68964108

[lxi] Isabel Karshner, What to know about the gaps between Israel and Hamas, New York Times, May 7, 2024, Accessed https://acesse.dev/tGNv6 May 25, 2024

[lxii] What is the three-phase deal accepted by Hamas, ABP Live, May 7, 2024, Accessed  https://l1nq.com/izCXQ May 24, 2024.

[lxiii] Egypt’s Spy Chief in Israel, The Times of Israel, April 26, 2024, Accessed https://l1nq.com/y2PFF April 30, 2024.

[lxiv] Israel-Palestine Conflicts: latest development, CNN (Arabic) https://l1nq.com/5XeuP

[lxv]Palestinians in Gaza can go tent cities: Former Israeli Minister, Aljazeera English, October 15, 2023, Accessed  https://acesse.dev/oCUaY April 2, 2024.

[lxvi] Leaked document fuels concerns to push Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt, CBC, November 11, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/5WeDR April 25, 2024.

[lxvii] Aya Betrawi and others, A timeline of events leading up to Israel’s Rafah offensive, NPR, May 8, 2024, Accessed https://l1nq.com/Hl1UF May 14, 2024.

[lxviii] Beatric Farhat, Why Hamas chief Haniya visiting Egypt, Al-Monitor, December 123, 2023, Accessed https://acesse.dev/G0JBv April 30, 2024.

[lxix] Gaza: What ceasefire negotiation tells us, The Conversation, May 16, 2024, Accessed  https://encr.pw/3cTSt May 17, 2024.

[lxx] Yahya Sinwar: A Charismatic Hams Leader, Worldcrunch  Accessed https://shorturl.at/nBrBt  May 31, 2024

[lxxi] The extremists driving Netanyahu’s approach to war with Hamas, Financial Times, February 19, 2024, Accessed https://acesse.dev/1Lt6y May 17 2024.

[lxxii] Gaza: What ceasefire negotiation tells us, The Conversation.

[lxxiii]Victorea Bisset, Six months of Israel-Gaza war, Washington Post, April 7, 2024, Accessed  https://l1nq.com/2M50v May 22, 2024.