In the context of Nepal, political jolts and uncertainty often stem from shifting alliances among political parties due to coalition politics. In the last three and a half decades, coalition politics has perpetuated political instability in Nepal, preventing the country from achieving its developmental aspirations. The consideration of firm ideological alignment for the political coalition has remained absent in Nepalese coalition politics, and political survival has remained at its core.
The trajectory of coalition politics in Nepal can be delineated through three key events that have significantly influenced its evolution and shape over time. These events encompass the reinstatement of the multiparty system in 1991, marking the genesis of coalition politics in Nepal from a period spanning from 1991 to 2002. During this period, Nepal held three general elections in 1991, 1994 and 1999, resulting in the tenure of 10 Prime Ministers and eight coalition shuffles. The second landmark was the implementation of proportional representation during the Constituent Assembly in 2008, inaugurating a new phase of coalition politics from 2008 to 2017, which witnessed several premierships amidst numerous coalition reconfigurations. The third juncture transpired with the establishment of the federal Parliament in 2018 after the 2017 general election and provincial elections. These elections led to the successive appointment of three Prime Ministers at the national level, accompanied by over six coalition reshufflings, in addition to several coalition changes at the provincial levels. Each of these events has moulded and nurtured the landscape of coalition politics in Nepal, gradually engendering more intricate and multi-layers of complexity in coalition politics. Against the backdrop of these distinct phases, this article endeavours to analyse the character and ramifications of coalition politics in Nepal.
Multiparty System and Starting of Coalition Politics in Nepal (1991–2002)
The emergence of coalition politics in Nepal can be traced back to the end of the party-less Panchayat regime in 1990 and the reinstatement of the multiparty system. This transition was initiated by the Nepali Congress (NC), which led the popular movement, also known as the 1st Jana Andolan (people’s movement), in 1990,[i] supported by an alliance of seven left political parties.[ii] The restoration of multi-party democracy in Nepal has led to the resurgence and establishment of various political parties, including those based on ethnicity, region and religion.[iii] This revival of multi-party democracy also laid the groundwork for coalition politics in Nepal.
Following the reinstatement of the multiparty system, three general elections were held in Nepal in 1991, 1994 and 1999, until the dissolution of the House of Representatives in 2002. The first general elections took place in 1991, with participation from approximately 20 political parties,[iv] including the NC, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML), the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), the Unified People’s Front of Nepal (UPFN), the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP) and others. The election resulted in the NC securing a majority of 112 out of 205 seats in the House of Representatives and forming government under the prime ministership of Girija Prasad Koirala. However, NC’s internal conflicts led to the collapse of the government in 1994, long before the end of its prescribed five-year tenure.[v]
The inception of coalition politics in Nepal can be pinpointed to this period in history, as the mid-term election of 1994 was held and none of the political parties obtained the majority required to form a government. Consequently, the then King invited the CPN-UML to form a minority government under the leadership of Man Mohan Adhikari. This also marked the first time a leftist political party formed a government in Kathmandu. Nonetheless, the communist government also fell after just nine months in power,[vi] leading to the dissolution of the House of Representatives in August 1995, a decision by the Nepalese Supreme Court resulted in the reinstatement of the dissolved House of the Representatives.[vii] Subsequently, in September 1995, the NC, the RPP and the NSP formed a coalition government,[viii] with Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC assuming the role of Prime Minister.
Since then, the country has seen ‘seven minority and coalition governments’[ix], [x] [xi] [xii] until 2002, when the House of Representatives was dissolved. Overall, the 1990s in Nepal were marked by a series of challenges, including a hung parliament, coalition politics, and political instability.
Even when the NC secured a majority in the 1999 parliamentary election, political jolts continued to dominate due to the NC’s internal party conflicts and split.[xiii], [xiv] The evolution of coalition politics took shape in pursuit of political survival and the retention of power. The NC and the CPN-UML continued to form alliances to establish governing bodies, gaining support from smaller political parties. This ultimately led the country into uncertainties that prevail to date.
On the economic front, liberal reforms were initiated during the mid-1980s, which also stagnated due to political instability.[xv] Besides, the Maoist insurgency, which started in 1996, abruptly created socio-political instability in Nepal.[xvi] After a 10-year-long insurgency, a peace accord was signed in 2006. This peace accord paved the way for the Constituent Assembly elections and another era of coalition politics and profound political uncertainties.
Introduction to Proportional Representation and Coalition Politics (2008–2017)
The second phase of coalition politics started in Nepal with the announcement of the Constituent Assembly elections in 2008. It has been observed that with the introduction of proportional representation for the first time in Nepal during the Constituent Assembly, coalition politics became more complex. The Constituent Assembly was comprised of 601 seats, with elections being held for a total of 557 seats. Approximately 60% (335 members) were filled through proportional representation, while 240 members were directly elected through the first-past-the-post system.[xvii] Additionally, 26 seats were nominated by the Council of Ministers, Constituent Assembly, ‘based on understanding from the persons of high reputation who have rendered significant contribution in national life’.[xviii]
Further, there was a ‘rise in the number of political parties’[xix] that were formed and took part in the Constituent Assembly elections. Owing to the increased participation of around 54 political parties and the proportional representation system in the election, the 1st Constituent Assembly witnessed representation from over 25 parties (details in Table 1). None of the political parties secured a majority in the Constituent Assembly, resulting in complex coalition politics.
Table 1. Constituent Assembly Election 2008
No. of Political Parties Participated |
Major Political Parties |
Seats |
Total |
||
PR# |
FPTP † |
Nom.* |
|||
54 |
CPN (Maoist) |
100 |
120 |
9 |
229 |
NC |
73 |
37 |
5 |
115 |
|
CPN-UML |
70 |
33 |
5 |
108 |
|
Madheshi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal (MJAF-N) |
22 |
30 |
2 |
54 |
|
Terai Madhesh Loktantrik Party |
11 |
9 |
1 |
21 |
|
RPP |
8 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
|
CPN-ML |
8 |
0 |
1 |
9 |
|
SP |
5 |
4 |
0 |
9 |
|
Janamorcha Nepal |
5 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
|
CPN (United) |
5 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
|
RPP-N |
4 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
Rastriya Janamorcha |
3 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
|
Rastriya Janshakti Party |
3 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
|
NWPP |
2 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
Sanghiya Loktantrik Rastriya Manch |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
|
NSP (Anandidevi) |
2 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
|
Other Political Parties |
12 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
|
|
Independents |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
Total |
|
|
|
601 |
*Nominated by the Council of Ministers, Nepal Constituent Assembly; # Proportional Representation, †First Past the Post System
Source: Election Commission, Nepal
During the 1st Constituent Assembly, Nepal witnessed four coalition shuffles, frequent changes in Prime Ministers and cabinet reshufflings (details in Table 2). In August 2008, Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ of the CPN-MC assumed the position of Prime Minister in a coalition government with the CPN-UML, the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum Nepal (MJF-N), Sadbhavana Party and various smaller parties. However, this coalition government’s tenure was short-lived, lasting approximately six months. Subsequently, in May 2009, Madhav Kumar Nepal, leader of the CPN-UML, assumed the role of Prime Minister with the support of the NC, the MFJ-N and other political parties. This government was dissolved in February 2011 after a coalition realignment that saw the CPN-MC joining forces, following which CPN-UML leader Jhala Nath Khanal assumed the position of Prime Minister in March 2011. Another shift in the coalition occurred, leading to CPN-MC leader Baburam Bhattarai’s appointment as Prime Minister, with the support of smaller parties such as the NSP, Tarai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party, NSP (Anandidevi) and MJF-N.
Table 2. Coalition Shifts During 1st Constituent Assembly (2008–2013)
Sl. N. |
Main Political Party |
Coalition Partners |
Prime Ministers |
Tenure |
1. |
CPN (Maoist)
|
o CPN-UML o Madhesi Janadhikar Forum Nepal o Sadbhavana Party o Other smaller parties |
Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ |
18 August 2008–25 May 2009 |
2. |
CPN-UML |
o NC o MFJ-N o other political parties |
Madhav Kumar Nepal |
25 May 2009–5 February 2011 |
3. |
CPN-UML |
o CPN-M |
Jhala Nath Khanal |
6 February 2011–28 August 2011 |
4. |
CPN-MC |
o NSP o Tarai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party (TMLP) o NSP (Anandidevi) o MJF-N o Other Political Parties |
Baburam Bhattarai |
29 August 2011–13 March 2013 |
Source: Prepared by the Author (Subodh C. Bharti) based on the archived media reports and the Government of Nepal’s portal - https://www.opmcm.gov.np/en/former-pm/
The frequent coalition shuffles and discord on crucial issues such as federal provinces and the form of government eventually resulted in the 1st Constituent Assembly failing to fulfil its historic mandate, resulting in its natural dissolution in 2012.
In the 2nd Constituent Assembly elections in 2013, the complexity of coalition politics became sharper as 122 political parties participated, of which approximately 30 represented the 601-member Constituent Assembly. It was noted that several political parties, which were unable to secure a single seat through the First Past the Post (FPTP) system, managed to obtain 1–5 seats in the Constituent Assembly through proportional representation (details in Table 3).
Table 3. Constituent Assembly Election 2013
No. of Political Parties Participated |
Major Political Parties |
Seats |
Total |
|
PR# |
FPTP† |
|||
122 |
NC |
91 |
105 |
196 |
CPN-UML |
84 |
91 |
175 |
|
Unified CPN (Maoist) |
54 |
26 |
80 |
|
RPP-N |
24 |
0 |
24 |
|
Madheshi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal (Loktantrik) |
10 |
4 |
14 |
|
RPP |
10 |
3 |
13 |
|
Madheshi Jana Adhikar Forum, Nepal |
8 |
2 |
10 |
|
Tarai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party |
7 |
4 |
11 |
|
SP |
5 |
1 |
6 |
|
CPN-ML |
5 |
0 |
5 |
|
Federal Socialist Party |
5 |
0 |
5 |
|
Rastriya Janamorcha |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
CPN-U |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
Rastriya Madhesh Samajwadi Party |
3 |
0 |
3 |
|
NWPP |
3 |
1 |
4 |
|
Rastriya Janamukti Party |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
Terai Madhes Sadbhavana Party |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
Tharuhat Tarai Party |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
Nepal Pariwar Dal |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
Dalit Janajati Party |
2 |
0 |
2 |
|
Other Political Parties |
10 |
0 |
10 |
|
Independent |
0 |
2 |
2 |
|
Nominated* |
26 |
|||
Total |
|
|
601 |
* Nominated by the Council of Ministers, Nepal Constituent Assembly; # Proportional Representation, †First Past the Post System
Source: The Carter Centre Election Report[xx]
Following the Constituent Assembly elections, a consensus among the majority of political parties resulted in the formation of a rotational government. The NC assumed leadership with Sushil Koirala as the head, receiving support from the CPN-UML. This period underscored cooperation between the NC and CPN-UML, despite their differing ideologies, as they agreed to share power. However, with the promulgation of a new Federal Democratic Republic constitution in September 2015, a new coalition government led by CPN-UML’s K P Sharma Oli was formed, backed by the CPN-MC, the RPP (a right-wing party), and other smaller parties. Further, in August 2016, another coalition government came into being, with CPN-MC’s leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, assuming the role of Prime Minister with support from the NC and several minor parties. As part of the power-sharing arrangement between the NC and CPN-MC, PM Dahal resigned in May 2017, leading to the assumption of leadership by the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba (details in Table 4).
Initially, it seemed that major political parties had learnt from the experiences of the previous Constituent Assembly, and moved towards cooperation between conflicting ideological parties. However, after the promulgation of the new Federal constitution, frequent coalition changes became apparent. These recurring changes in coalitions and shuffling of governments during this period contributed to socio-political unrest and sustained policy instability in Nepal.
Table 4. Coalition Shifts During 2nd Constituent Assembly (2013–2017)
Sl. N. |
Main Political Party |
Coalition Partners |
Prime Ministers |
Tenure |
1. |
NC
|
o CPN-UML o RPP |
Sushil Koirala |
11 February 2014–12 October 2015 |
2. |
CPN-UML |
o CPN-MC o RPP o Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum (Loktantrik) o Madhesi Jana Adhikar Forum o Nepal Bahujan Samajwadi Party o Rastriya Janamorcha o CPN-ML |
K P Sharma Oli |
12 October 2015–4 August 2016 |
3. |
CPN-MC |
o NC o RPP-N o Loktantrik Forum Akhanda Nepal Party (from 19 January 2017) o Samajbadi Prajatantrik Janata Party, Nepal (from 19 January 2017) |
Pushpa Kamal Dahal |
3 August 2016–6 June 2017 |
4. |
NC |
o Nepal Loktantrik Forum o RPP (from 17 October 2017) o CPN-MC (until 17 October 2017) |
Sher Bahadur Deuba |
7 June 2017–15 February 2018 |
Source: Prepared by the Author (Subodh C. Bharti) based on the archived media reports and the Government of Nepal’s portal - https://www.opmcm.gov.np/en/former-pm/
During the two periods of the Constituent Assembly, there was a rise in the formation, merger and split of a number of political parties. Subsequently, no single political party obtained a majority, necessitating the continuation of coalition politics. Throughout this period, the primary focus of coalition politics remained oriented towards political survival and the retention of power. Simultaneously, the coalition had to contend with the demands of Jana Andolan-II, which sought to establish a federal system and a republic to ensure broader participation and safeguard the interests of marginalised, oppressed and excluded groups. Additionally, the task of constitutional making was paramount. The second Constituent Assembly managed to expeditiously deliver a new federal constitution, albeit without addressing the concerns of the Madhesi people. Consequently, this precipitated widespread protests and an economic blockade at the Indo-Nepal border, symbolising the Constituent Assembly’s failure to address the populace’s aspirations. A decade of political uncertainty persisted from 2008 to 2017, until the Federal Parliament’s general elections in 2017.
Federalism with Proportional Representation and Coalition Politics (2017–till Date)
Following the introduction of federalism in 2017, Nepal experienced another significant shift in its coalition politics, leading to a more intricate and multilayered landscape. This shift was marked by a decrease in the representation of the number of political parties in the House of Representatives, as a notable number of small regional parties preferred to contest at the provincial levels. Moreover, the decline in the number of political parties holding seats in the House of Representatives can also be attributed to the consolidation and dissolution of several political entities. However, this decline has not helped in any strong coalition formation.
Furthermore, the retention of proportional representation in federal and provincial elections has enabled smaller regional parties to secure seats at the federal level based on the overall percentage of votes they receive nationwide, despite their inability to secure seats through first-past-the-post systems. As no single political party has been able to secure a majority, the influence of these smaller parties in the government formation process has become substantial. The pursuit of power retention and the subsequent formation of coalitions have prompted leaders to splinter and establish new political parties, thereby intensifying the frequency of coalition shuffles.
The outcome of the general elections held in 2017 and 2022 reflects that while the small and regional political parties’ representation at the federal level may seem insubstantial, each group holds significant leverage within a coalition government. Their support and votes play a crucial role in the making and breaking of the coalition.
Consequently, these parties have gained a strategic advantage in political negotiations. They have considerable influence in the formation and dissolution of governments at both the federal and provincial levels. Nevertheless, the increased prevalence of coalition politics has amplified the susceptibility to political disruptions and instability, thereby fostering an environment of political uncertainty.
The endurance of proportional representation, with 40% of the total seats (110 seats) being allocated through a proportional mechanism, has substantiated diverse representation in the House of Representatives[xxi] (details in Table 5), thereby enhancing democratic inclusivity. However, this system has also led to frequent coalition reconfigurations and political jolts (details in Table 6).
Table 5. Federal General Elections in Nepal
No. of Political Parties Participated |
Major Political Parties |
Seats |
Total |
|
PR# |
FPTP† |
|||
General Election 2017 |
||||
58 |
CPN-UML |
41 |
80 |
121 |
NC |
40 |
23 |
63 |
|
CPN-Maoist-Centre |
17 |
36 |
53 |
|
Rastriya Janta Party Nepal (RJPN) |
6 |
11 |
17 |
|
Federal Socialist Forum |
6 |
10 |
16 |
|
RPP |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
Naya Shakti Party, Nepal |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
Rastriya Janamorcha |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
NWPP |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
Independent |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
Total |
|
|
275 |
|
General Election 2022 |
||||
59
|
NC |
32 |
57 |
89 |
CPN-UML |
34 |
44 |
78 |
|
CPN-MC + NSP |
14 |
18 |
32 |
|
Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) (CPN-US) |
0 |
10 |
10 |
|
Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) |
13 |
7 |
20 |
|
JSP-N |
5 |
7 |
12 |
|
RPP |
7 |
7 |
14 |
|
LSP |
0 |
4 |
4 |
|
Nagrik Unmukti Party (NUP) |
0 |
3 |
3 |
|
NWPP |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
Janmat Party (JP) |
5 |
1 |
6 |
|
Independent |
0 |
5 |
5 |
|
Total |
|
|
275 |
# Proportional Representation, †First Past the Post System
Source: Election Commission, Nepal
After the federal elections in November 2017, Nepalese politics has witnessed five coalition shuffles at the centre and several subsequent shuffles at the provincial assemblies. In February 2018, CPN-UML leader KP Oli established the government with coalition support from CPN-MC, which remained in place until May 2021, when CPN-MC withdrew from the coalition. Political uncertainty arose when, under the guidance of CPN-UML leader Oli, then Nepalese President Bidya Devi Bhandari dissolved the House of Representatives. However, subsequent to the intervention of the Supreme Court, the House of Representatives was reinstated, and NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba assumed the role of the Prime Minister of Nepal. Deuba secured a vote of confidence with coalition support from CPN-MC, JSPN and a faction of CPN-UML, which later emerged as CPN-US. This government completed its term until the 2nd Federal General elections were conducted in November 2022.
Table 6. Recent Coalition Shuffles in Nepal
Sl. N. |
Main Political Party |
Coalition Partners |
Prime Ministers |
Tenure |
1. |
CPN-UML |
o CPN-MC o Federal Socialist Forum o RJPN-JSPN |
KP Sharma Oli |
15 February 2018–13 May 2021 Minority Government 13 May 2021–13 July 2021 |
2. |
NC |
o CPN-MC o CPN-US |
Sher Bahadur Deuba |
13 July 2021–26 December 2022 |
3. |
CPN-MC
|
Post-election 1st Coalition o CPN-UML o RSP o RPP o JSPN o JP o NUP |
Pushpa Kamal Dahal, ‘Prachanda’ |
26 December 2022–Incumbent |
2nd Coalition o NC RPP o JP o LSP o NUP |
||||
3rd Coalition o CPN-UML o JSP-N (later JSP) o CPN-US o RSP |
Source: Prepared by the Author (Subodh C. Bharti) based on the archived media reports and the Government of Nepal’s portal - https://www.opmcm.gov.np/en/former-pm/
During the second general elections, a pre-election coalition was already formed, comprising six parties: the NC, CPN-MC, Nepal Socialist Party (NSP), CPN-US, LSP-N and Rastriya Janamorcha. However, following the elections, a disagreement between the NC and CPN-MC leadership regarding the post of Prime Minister resulted in the dissolution of the coalition. Meanwhile, CPN-MC leader Dahal made an alliance with the CPN-UML. Dahal’s claim for the position of PM garnered support from CPN-UML, RSP, RPP, JSPN, JP and NUP. On 10 January 2023, Dahal secured a vote of confidence with 268 out of 270 votes cast in the 275-member House of Representatives. Notably, the main opposition, the NC, also supported the CPN-MC during the vote of confidence.
Subsequently, on 25 February 2023, a new coalition of eight parties, including the NC, CPN-MC, JSPN, CPN-US, JP, LSP-N, NUP and Rastriya Janamorcha, reached an agreement to support the NC’s presidential candidate for the upcoming election. This led to the withdrawal of support from the Dahal government by the CPN-UML. On 20 March 2023, Dahal once again secured a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives with support from the NC and other parties (JSPN, CPN-US, JP, LSP-N and NUP). However, this coalition government was sustained till 4 March 2024 when CPN-MC leader Dahal disbanded his coalition with the NC and rejoined with the CPN-UML. Subsequently, Dahal resumed the office of Prime Minister once again. The new coalition included the RSP, JSPN and the CPN-US.[xxii]
It is noteworthy that the process of forming and dissolving alliances in Nepal has become exceedingly easy. Nevertheless, coalition politics have become increasingly complex, making any prediction about political stability in Nepal uncertain for the near future.
Coalition Shuffle at the Centre and Implications for Provincial Coalitions
Since the formation of governments after the 2022 elections, several shifts at the provincial assemblies have taken place amidst uncertain coalition politics at the federal level. The smaller parties have started claiming chief ministerial positions at provincial assemblies or key ministerial positions at the federal level. Recently, with the coalition shift at the federal level in March 2024, the CPN-UML–CPN-MC alliance has started working to bring about changes in provincial governments.
There have been multiple shifts in provincial government leadership in Koshi Province, with the Chief Minister position shifting between CPN-UML and NC, influenced by changes in the federal government coalition. Currently, the CPN-UML is leading a coalition government in Koshi province with support from the CPN-MC and Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP).
The Bagmati Province has also experienced multiple changes in coalitions since the establishment of the government led by CPN-MC provincial leader Shalikram Jamkattel as Chief Minister. In alignment with the shifts in federal-level coalitions, the cabinet in Bagmati has also undergone changes. Despite this, CPN-MC has successfully retained the position of Chief Minister.
A split in the JSPN in May 2024 led to the formation of a new party, the JSP. [xxiii] This split occurred after reports of JSPN leader Upendra Yadav trying to ally with the NC and the CPN-US leadership. [xxiv] This resulted in the withdrawal of the CPN-MC-led alliance’s support from the JSPN government in the Madhesh Province.[xxv] Despite several efforts by the JSPN to save its government in the province following several talks with the NC, LSP and CPN-US,[xxvi] the JSPN government could not survive. It was the only province in Nepal that, since the 2017 elections, was able to sustain a single party-led government; however, this time coalition shuffle at the centre and a party split have brought a political jolt to the Madhesh province too. Subsequently, Janmat Party’s Satish Kumar Singh was appointed as Madhesh Province Chief Minister on 7 June 2024. Janmat Party’s government is supported by the CPN-UML, CPN-MC, CPN-US, NUP and Nepal Sanghiya Samajbadi.[xxvii]
Meanwhile, in Gandaki Province, the left coalition under the leadership of CPN-UML leader Khagraj Adhikari formed a coalition government, but it faced challenges and was deemed temporary by the Supreme Court.[xxviii][xxix] The Supreme Court invalidated the vote of confidence received by CM Adhikari, citing a lack of majority support. As a result, Surendraraj Pandey of the NC has been directed to assume the role of the new CM of the province.[xxx] Pandey received a vote of confidence and secured support from members of the ruling NC and the RPP, including an independent and a member of the Nepal Socialist Party (NSP).[xxxi]
In Lumbini Province, there have been changes in the chief minister position, with CPN-MC leader Jokh Bahadur Mahra becoming the CM after the NC CM lost the majority.[xxxii] In Karnali Province, the smallest 40-member assembly, coalition shifts at the federal level have led to changes in the provincial government.[xxxiii]
In Sudurpaschim Province, where the NC-led provincial government has lost its majority following the withdrawal of support from the CPN-MC and the CPN-US, this led to the resignation of the Chief Minister, Kamal Bahadur Shah, after failing to secure a vote of confidence. Subsequently, a new coalition government was formed, with CPN-US leader Dirgha Bahadur Sodari assuming office as the Chief Minister. The government underwent a successful floor test and received a vote of confidence,[xxxiv] although the sustainability of this coalition government remains uncertain.
Analysis
Since the last two federal general and provincial elections, coalition politics in Nepal has evolved in such a way that inclusive and diverse political participation has been ensured; however, a more multilayered and complex coalition politics has evolved in Nepal. Political parties’ quest for political survival and retaining power has remained unchanged, like during the previous parliaments. Remarkably, larger political parties now have to engage with regional and provincial parties, shaping coalition politics to give smaller stakeholders more bargaining power for major positions and portfolios, making coalition politics more complex. Additionally, the proportional representation system has empowered smaller parties to negotiate better with the national government. However, this has often led to not constructive bargaining but rather negative political bargaining, where the focus on political survival and retaining power has disrupted politics in Nepal.
Furthermore, the formation of coalitions disregards ideological values and instead involves mere power games. The implications of recent coalition politics include a surge in hyper-nationalism, often attributing failures and inefficiencies to a constructed villain. In recent years, there has been a noticeable rise in nationalism in Nepal, particularly under populist leadership advocating for the return of the Monarchy. This has occurred against the backdrop of escalating political uncertainty, leading to growing frustration among the public. Notably, the leadership of the RPP and right-wing populist political activists have actively sought the support of the public, utilising public gatherings and social media to advocate for the restoration of the monarchy in Nepal as a means to establish political and policy stability.
There are also ongoing academic and media discussions regarding whether Nepal should bear the expenses associated with a 275-member House of Representatives, including the various privileges and benefits enjoyed by the members and officeholders, such as the MPs and the president.
Concurrently, another populist movement spearheaded by a younger leadership has gained traction, however, without expressing support for the monarchy’s return. This faction offers hope to the populace by pledging to entrust leadership to the younger generation, positioning them to guide the nation towards development. This stands in contrast to the ongoing internal strife and partisan politics within the established political parties, which are seen as driven by individualistic power motives.
Overall, the constant political jolts and policy instability have impeded Nepal’s expected economic growth and development. The frequent shuffles at the provincial governments have made the governance poor, policy instability prevails and slow progress in the development projects. The perpetual political jolts have negatively affected policy and economic stability, preventing the country’s economic growth and overall developmental interests.
Conclusion
Coalition politics has become an inevitable reality of the federal system of Nepal. Being highly diverse in terms of culture, ethnicity, language, religion and huge disparities based on caste, class, ethnicity and gender, Nepal required a federal system with proportional representation to ensure the representation of all. However, coalition politics has become a delicate game of political survival and political uncertainties in Nepal, where unexpected events and decisions have significant ramifications for the country’s policy planning and implementation. In Nepal, coalition politics has evolved to include a wide range of parties, but the underlying motive remains power retention.
Additionally, Nepal is on its way to transition from the least developed countries (LDC) category by November 2026, and the next general election is due in 2027. The current political uncertainties in Nepal may have an impact on the country’s preparations for the LDC graduation. Simultaneously, these political jolts and uncertainties are also cultivating political consciousness among the common people, potentially yielding significant ramifications for the upcoming elections. This could precipitate a notable realignment within the political landscape of Nepal.
*****
*Subodh Chandra Bharti, Research Associate, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Subodh C. Bharti. “Problems of Nation-Building and Identity Politics in Nepal” (paper presented at the Annual Kathmandu Conference on Nepal and the Himalaya, Kathmandu, Nepal, July 27–29, 2022).
[ii] Ananta Raj Poudyal. “Nepal in 1995: The Communist-Rule Experiment,” Asian Survey, vol. 36, no. 2 (1996), pp. 209–215.
[iii] Krishna Hachhethu. 2006. Political Parties of Nepal, Baha Occasional Papers, Social Science Baha: Kathmandu (p. 3).
[iv] Shyam Prasad Phuyel, Amrit Kumar Shrestha and Tara Nath Ghimire. "Constitutional Provisions and Practices of Electoral System in Nepal," International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), vo.9, issue. 12 (2020), pp. 872–880.
[v] Krishna Hachhethu. 2006. Political Parties of Nepal, Baha Occasional Papers, Social Science Baha: Kathmandu (p. 3).
[vi] Ananta Raj Poudyal. “Nepal in 1995: The Communist-Rule Experiment,” Asian Survey, vol. 36, no. 2 (1996), pp. 209-215.
[vii] Ibid.
[viii] Ibid.
[ix] Krishna Hachhethu. “Nepal in 1996: Experimenting with a Coalition Government,” Asian Survey, vol. 37, no. 2 (1997), pp. 149–154.
[x] Y. N. Khanal. “Nepal in 1997: Political Stability Eludes,” Asian Survey, vol. 38, no. 2 (1998), pp. 148–154.
[xi] Leo E. Rose. “Nepal and Bhutan in 1998: Two Himalayan Kingdoms,” Asian Survey, vol. 39 no. 1 (1999), pp. 155–162.
[xii] Leo E. Rose. “Nepal and Bhutan in 1999: Some Progress,” Asian Survey, vol. 40 no. 1 (2000), pp. 189–194.
[xiii] Ibid.
[xiv] Krishna Hachhethu. 2006. Political Parties of Nepal, Baha Occasional Papers, Social Science Baha: Kathmandu (p. 3).
[xv] Subodh C Bharti. “Economic Liberalisation and Shifts in Foreign Policy of Nepal” (Ph.D. Thesis, JNU, 2023).
[xvi] Subodh C. Bharti. “Problems of Nation-Building and Identity Politics in Nepal” (paper presented at the Annual Kathmandu Conference on Nepal and the Himalaya, Kathmandu, Nepal, July 27–29, 2022).
[xvii] Shyam Prasad Phuyel, Amrit Kumar Shrestha and Tara Nath Ghimire. "Constitutional Provisions and Practices of Electoral System in Nepal," International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), vo.9, issue. 12 (2020), pp. 872-880.
[xviii] Law Commission. "Election to the Members of the Constituent Assembly Act, 2064 (2007)," Government of Nepal, June 22, 2007, https://lawcommission.gov.np/en/?cat=528 (Accessed June 1, 2024).
[xix] Shyam Prasad Phuyel, Amrit Kumar Shrestha and Tara Nath Ghimire. "Constitutional Provisions and Practices of Electoral System in Nepal," International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), vo.9, issue. 12 (2020), pp. 872-880.
[xx] The Carter Centre. "Observing Nepal's 2013 Constituent Assembly Election," Election Report 2015, https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/pdfs/news/peace_publications/election_reports/nepal-2013-final.pdf (Accessed May 12, 2024).
[xxi] Government of Nepal. 2015. The Constitution of Nepal, 2015, Nepal Law Commission, Kathmandu.
[xxii] Santosh Sharma Poudel. "Nepal’s Prime Minister Dahal Changes Partners Mid-stream," The Diplomat, March 13, 2024, https://thediplomat.com/2024/03/nepals-prime-minister-dahal-changes-partners-mid-stream/ (Accessed April 17, 2024).
[xxiii] Purushottam Poudel. “After split in JSP-Nepal, politics hots up in Madhesh over fate of coalition,” The Kathmandu Post, May 10, 2024, https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2024/05/10/after-split-in-jsp-nepal-politics-hots-up-in-madhesh-over-fate-of-coalition (Accessed May 12, 2024).
[xxiv] The Hindu. "Nepal's ruling coalition Janata Samajbadi Party splits," The Hindu, May 7, 2024, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/nepals-ruling-coalition-janata-samajbadi-party-splits/article68148418.ece#:~:text=The%20Janata%20Samajbadi%20Party-Nepal,the%20Election%20Commission%20of%20Nepal (Accessed May 10, 2024).
[xxv] Ajit Tiwari. "UML, Maoist Centre to quit Madhesh government," May 12, 20124, https://kathmandupost.com/province-no-2/2024/05/12/uml-maoist-centre-quit-madhesh-government (Accessed May 13, 2024).
[xxvi] Purushottam Poudel. "Is Khanal prevailing over Nepal in Unified Socialist," The Kathmandu Post, May 31, 12024. https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2024/05/31/is-khanal-prevailing-over-nepal-in-unified-socialist (Accessed May 31, 2024).
[xxvii] Santosh Singh. "New Madhesh chief minister forms 14-member Cabinet," The Kathmandu Post, June 7, 2024. https://kathmandupost.com/province-no-2/2024/06/07/newly-appointed-madhesh-chief-minister-singh-forms-14-member-cabinet (Accessed June 8, 2024).
[xxviii] The Kathmandu post. “Court bars Gandaki government from taking long-term decisions,” The Kathmandu Post, May 10, 2024, https://kathmandupost.com/national/2024/05/10/supreme-court-bars-gandaki-government-from-taking-decisions-with-long-term-consequences (Accessed May 11, 2024).
[xxix] My Republica. “Justices Malla and Subedi hearing writ petition filed against Gandaki govt,” MY Republica, April 22, https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/justices-malla-and-subedi-hearing-writ-petition-filed-against-gandaki-govt/ (Accessed May 5, 2024).
[xxx] Nepal Live Today. “Adhikari removed from chief minister’s post after Supreme Court’s order,” Nepal Live Today, May 27, 2024, https://www.nepallivetoday.com/2024/05/27/adhikari-removed-from-chief-ministers-post-after-supreme-courts-order/ (Accessed 30 May, 2024).
[xxxi] My Republica. “Gandaki CM Surendra Raj Pandey secures vote of confidence,” My Republica, June 10, 2024, https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/gandaki-cm-surendra-raj-pandey-secures-vote-of-confidence/ (Accessed June 11, 2024).
[xxxii] Ghanshyam Gautam & Arjun Shah. "Lumbini, Sudurpaschim chief ministers quit without facing votes of confidence," The Kathmandu Post, April 5, 2024. https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2024/04/05/lumbini-sudurpaschim-chief-ministers-quit-without-facing-votes-of-confidence (Accessed May 2, 2024).
[xxxiii] Kathmandu Post. "Provinces will get new governments, leaders of five-party coalition say," The Kathmandu Post, March 27, 2024, https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2024/03/27/provinces-will-get-new-governments-leaders-of-five-party-coalition-say (Accessed May 2, 2024).
[xxxiv] Arjun Shah. "Sudurpaschim Chief Minister Sodari wins trust vote," The Kathmandu Post, May 16, 2024, https://kathmandupost.com/sudurpaschim-province/2024/05/16/sudurpaschim-chief-minister-sodari-wins-trust-vote (Accessed May 20, 2024).