Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: The dispute over the Presidential election results in Venezuela has further unified the opposition. The political crisis has also led to a uniform demand for transparency from across the ideologically diverse governments in the region. 

From being one of the wealthiest countries in South America, a decline in oil prices in early 2010 pushed the oil-dependent economy of Venezuela into a downward spiral. The current political turmoil in Venezuela, in the follow-up to the recently concluded Presidential elections, has once again brought attention to the economic and political crisis that continues to plague the country. 

The government of President Nicolas Maduro, in power since 2013, has tried to stall the economic collapse. However, limited measures have been unable to arrest the state of hyperinflation, increasing prices of commodities and a shortage of necessities such as food products and medicines. Low wages and high unemployment have further made economic recovery difficult. Political violence, frequent riots and a constant state of unrest have compelled millions of Venezuelans to leave the country. Since 2015, an estimated seven million Venezuelans have fled the country, with six million resettling in other Latin American countries, including nearly 2.5 million in Colombia alone. While the migration indicates that Venezuela is losing its talented working professionals to other countries, the exodus has also caused a regional humanitarian crisis as neighbouring governments have been struggling to absorb refugees and asylum seekers while making efforts to provide them access to various welfare services.[i] With the domestic crisis affecting neighbours, President Maduro is facing increasing calls from within the region to bring transparency to the election process and release election data for the recently concluded Presidential elections, which the opposition claims to have won.

Prelude to the Current Crisis

In the 2015 Parliamentary elections, the Democratic Unity Roundtable Alliance (MUD), the coalition party of the opposition, gained control of the unicameral National Assembly, defeating President Maduro’s party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). The continued rift between President Maduro and the National Assembly along with street protests led to violent clashes between people and security forces. In 2017, President Maduro announced his intention to convene a Constituent Assembly to draw a new constitution, which he pledged would be submitted for a consultative referendum. The opposition claimed that it was a ploy by the President to delay regional elections and Presidential elections in 2018, both of which his party was likely to lose as the opposition gained support. The opposition boycotted the elections to the Constituent Assembly. The 2018 Presidential election was won by President Maduro amidst a boycott by the opposition parties and was widely condemned as unfair, with the government taking control of the National Electoral Authority (CNE), the Supreme Court and other legal systems to curb the powers of the opposition. In response to the deteriorating rule of law and the undermining of democratic institutions, several countries and the EU imposed sanctions on Venezuela that placed visa restrictions, prohibited access to the country’s financial markets by the Venezuelan government and public enterprises, imposed an arms embargo, froze assets and bank accounts and blocked oil imports from Venezuela. The effect of the sanctions, especially on the oil sector, resulted in a contraction in the economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, between 2013 and 2021, Venezuela’s gross domestic product was estimated to have declined by more than 75 per cent, the most for any country not at war.[ii] The pandemic further compounded the economic and humanitarian crisis.

The continued instability led to demands from the region for President Maduro to not only take steps to arrest the economic downfall but also to improve the political environment within the country through dialogue with the opposition parties. In 2023, the government and a group of opposition parties (under the name of Unitary Platform) signed the Barbados Agreement, which laid the foundations for free and fair elections in 2024. The meeting in Barbados was the culmination of a two-year process of negotiations facilitated by Norway and initially hosted by Mexico before being shifted to Barbados. The agreement represented a milestone with both the government and opposition agreeing to talk to each other. As per the agreement, the Venezuelan government did not promise to lift the ban that had been imposed on the candidatures of many key opposition figures; it did pledge to “recognise and respect the right of each political actor to select” its Presidential candidate freely, and later, the government granted banned candidates the right to appeal their prohibition before the Supreme Court.[iii] Other steps agreed upon by the two sides included a thorough update of the electoral registry, including efforts to include the Venezuelan diaspora. The Barbados Agreement also stated that the National Electoral Council would invite international observation missions to monitor the polls, including delegations from the EU, the UN, the African Union and the Carter Centre, to ensure transparency and discourage malpractice and vote rigging.

While Washington was neither part of the negotiations nor was it party to the agreement, it welcomed the agreement. In keeping with its commitment to provide sanctions relief in response to concrete steps towards competitive elections, the United States temporarily allowed transactions involving the oil and gas sectors in Venezuela, authorised dealing with the state-owned gold mining company, and provided some relief in trade in Venezuelan sovereign bonds. The U.S. Department of State clarified that failure to abide by the terms of the Barbados Agreement will lead the United States to reverse steps it had taken.[iv]

For the government, the agreement helped ease some of the economic pressure. For the opposition, it allowed engaging in meaningful political processes and achieving their aims.

The Current Crisis

As the opposition united to challenge President Maduro, its candidate, María Corina Machado, a former member of the National Assembly, was barred by the government from the election owing to allegations of financial irregularities that occurred when she was a member of the National Assembly. Thereafter, the opposition put forward Edmundo Gonzalez, a former diplomat, as its candidate. During the campaign process, the opposition claimed its offices were vandalised, its party workers and supporters faced harassment by the government and civil society members were taken into custody. The government also placed stringent restrictions on Venezuelans voting abroad, denying millions the right to vote, which went against the Bardados Agreement. They point to voting irregularities and last-minute changes at polling station locations as efforts by the government to discourage voters from voting for the opposition’s candidate.

The Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that President Maduro had won the elections. The opposition disputed the results, and the matter was submitted before the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court. According to CNE, with 96.87 per cent of polling stations tallied, President Maduro, won the election with 51.95 per cent (6.4 million votes) compared to 43.18 per cent (5.3 million votes) for opposition candidate Edmundo González.[v] The opposition’s call for the CNE to release the detailed data from polling stations has found international support. The CNE has not published detailed results from each voting centre on its website, alleging that its operations were affected by a cyber attack. The Supreme Court, in its verdict announced on 22 August, ratified President Maduro’s victory to secure a third term from 10 January 2025 to 10 January 2031. The opposition has stated that it has data that its candidate received close to 67 per cent of the votes.

The lack of detailed electoral data and the dispute over the results have sparked protests in several cities across Venezuela, which in some cases led to violent outbreaks and the arrest of more than 2000 people. Venezuelan authorities have denounced the violence as part of a coup attempt and stated that most detainees were involved in vandalism and violent actions. The protests against the election results have also been held in other cities across the region as the opposition calls on the diaspora to support them.

Crisis and Its Effects

Domestically, the current crisis has united the fractured opposition. How far they will be able to remain unified and continue their fight against the government remains to be seen. In the past, Juan Guaido was elected interim President by the National Assembly after the 2018 elections. However, a fractured opposition led him to leave that position in 2022. And, while people have been protesting against President Maduro for the past few years, it will prove to be difficult to maintain the current momentum in the face of a government that has the full support of the security forces and the military and is willing to wait it out. 

The prevailing uncertain trade and investment climate is expected to impact Venezuelan economy further which continues to be in distress. The outflow of migrants from Venezuela is the largest displacement crisis in the world, and while they are adding to the labour force of other nations, the lack of talent within the country is likely to have consequences for Venezuela’s ability to remain economically competitive in the future. It will also be difficult for the government to undertake economic diversification plans given the continued political instability. It would also prove to be detrimental as Venezuela seeks to re-enter regional economic organisations such as the MERCOSUR. 

Within the region, Cuba and Nicaragua have supported the election results. Nonetheless, there has been a uniform demand for transparency from across the ideologically diverse governments in Latin America and the Caribbean region. Both Brazil and Argentina have called for President Maduro to make public the election tally. It has brought unity among the regional powers and they are trying to use their political powers to influence President Maduro to hold talks with the opposition to find solutions to diffuse the crisis. 

Internationally, Russia and China have congratulated President Maduro. However, if the humanitarian crisis persists and the economy continues to perform poorly, it may difficult for China and Russia to maintain their support. Western powers including the United States and the European Union disputed the official outcome and called for transparency. However, their steps in the past including the recognition of the opposition candidate as the legitimate president and imposing bilateral sanctions have proved to be unsuccessful in bringing change to Venezuela. Thus, the international community and the regional partners would need to reassess their approach to bring stability to Venezuela.

Stability within the country is needed to rebuild its economy and stop the humanitarian crisis that impacting the lives of the people. For the region and for the United States, cooperation with Venezuela would help address the migration of people and the growth of organised crime including trafficking of drugs. It is also not in the United States interest to let its strategic adversaries gain influence in a region that remains important for American national security.

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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Council for Foreign Relations, “Venezuela Crisis,” https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela, Accessed on 22 August 2024.

[ii] Marco Arena, Emilio Fernandez Corugedo, Jaime Guajardo, and Juan Francisco Yepez, “Venezuela’s Migrants Bring Economic Opportunity to Latin America”, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/12/06/cf-venezuelas-migrants-bring-economic-opportunity-to-latin-america, Accessed on 27 August 2024.

[iii] Britanica, “Nicolas Maduro,” https://www.britannica.com/biography/Nicolas-Maduro/Election-to-a-second-term, Accessed on 23 August 2024

[iv] U.S. Department of State, “Signing of Electoral Roadmap Between the Unitary Platform and Representatives of Maduro,” https://www.state.gov/signing-of-electoral-roadmap-between-the-unitary-platform-and-representatives-of-maduro/, Accessed on 22 August 2024.

[v] Andreína Chávez Alava, “Venezuela: Presidential Candidates and Political Parties Submit Electoral Evidence to Supreme Court, Far-Right Opposition Rejects Request,” https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/venezuela-presidential-candidates-and-political-parties-submit-electoral-evidence-to-supreme-court-far-right-opposition-rejects-request/, Accessed on 27 August 2024.