Indian Council of World Affairs

On 23 February 2025, the world witnessed the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Even after three years of continued tussle, the conflict is still inconclusive. In the ongoing crisis, Russia depends on the arms and military systems developed and manufactured by its domestic industry. However, it has also acquired some modest arms and assistance from Iran and North Korea. Ukraine, on the other hand, is dependent on and relies upon foreign arms and assistance to face off against Russia. Since the outset of the conflict, millions of dollars in arms and assistance have been transferred to Ukraine by multiple countries, including the United States and European countries. The conflict has been a non-zero-sum game for arms suppliers who have profited millions of dollars by transferring arms to the region. It seems the Ukraine crisis has become a war of weapons, which has provided a testing ground for multiple countries to assess the capability and lethality of their variety of weapon systems and equipment. 

Bilateral Assistance to Ukraine 

The US and European nations have transferred a bulky assistance package to Ukraine, which consists of military, financial and humanitarian assistance. According to the Kiel Institute for World Economy, between January 2022 and February 2025, the US has transferred €114.62 billion of overall aid, including military (€64.62 billion), financial (€46.60 billion), and humanitarian assistance (€3.42 billion).[i] Similarly, the European Union (Commission and Council) has supplied €49.38 billion in financial and €2.70 billion in humanitarian aid. These donations are part of bilateral government-to-government assistance and do not include other assistance from private entities, organisations, NGOs and other institutions.[ii] The US’s $69.2 billion (€64.62 billion) military aid to Ukraine has been allocated through three tools: the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and Foreign Military Financing (FMF).[iii] The arms and equipment the US has transferred to Ukraine since the outset of the conflict are part of these two military aid packages. Ukraine has also purchased arms through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS); however, the quantity and price were too meagre compared to the security assistance package.  

Besides US, several European countries, according to the Kiel Institute data, are among the top donors to Ukraine, such as Germany (€17.27 billion), the United Kingdom (€15.17 billion), Denmark (€8.60 billion), the Netherlands (€7.58 billion), Sweden (€6.05 billion), France (€5.16 billion) and Poland (€5.13 billion), amongst others. Apart from the overall aid, Germany (€12.62 billion), the UK (€10.36 billion), Denmark (€7.66 billion), the Netherlands (€6.09 billion) and Sweden (€5.32 billion) are the top five European countries that provided military assistance to Ukraine.[iv]

The following table represents the quantity and dollar value of the arms and equipment (ground-based) transferred by the major donors to Ukraine between January 2022 and February 2025.

Source: Source: Ifw-KIEL Institute Ukraine Tracker

Transfer of Arms and Equipment

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the US arms exports have increased by 21 per cent, from 35 per cent of global arms exports in 2015-2019 and 43 per cent of global arms exports in 2020-2024.[v] Meanwhile, Russia’s arms exports fell by 64 per cent during the same period, standing at 7.8 per cent of global arms exports between 2020 and 2024.[vi] The decline in Russia’s arms exports since 2022 is likely due to the diversion of military production for its military forces rather than for exports. Before that, in 2020 and 2021, Russia’s arms exports were at their lowest in the last two decades since 2000.[vii]

Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, almost 41 countries have supplied arms and assistance to Ukraine.[viii] Between 2020 and 2024, Ukraine has been the largest arms importer in Europe and the world, surpassing India and Saudi Arabia, sharing 8.8 per cent of global arms imports. Ukraine's arms imports have dramatically increased by 9627 per cent from 0.1 per cent of the global arms import in 2015-2019 to 8.8 per cent in 2020-2024.[ix] During the same period, 2015-1019 to 2020-2024, arms imports by European states also increased by 155 per cent. Currently, Ukraine is the second-largest destination for US arms, accounting for 9.3 per cent of the US’s overall arms exports. From the importer side, Ukraine has continued to be the largest arms recipient from the US, according to the SIPRI, acquiring 45 per cent of its overall imports, followed by Germany (12 per cent) and Poland (11 per cent).[x]

Between January 2022 and February 2025, the US and several European countries have been the major contributors of arms and equipment to Ukraine. The arms supplied to Ukraine comprise ground-, air- and sea-based equipment. However, they are quantitatively dominated by the ground-based equipment. The Kiel Institute for World Economy’s “Ukraine support tracker” has divided the ground-based military equipment supplied to Ukraine into five broad categories: tanks, infantry combat vehicles, howitzer guns, multiple rocket launchers and air defence systems.[xi]

The following figure details the quantity and designation of arms transferred by Ukraine’s top three arms suppliers. 

Source: Ifw-KIEL Institute Ukraine Tracker, SIPRI 2024

Source: Ifw-KIEL Institute Ukraine Tracker, SIPRI 2024

Source: Ifw-KIEL Institute Ukraine Tracker, SIPRI 2024

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused global arms manufacturers to earn billions. Since 2022, arms revenues of the SIPRI top 100 arms companies worldwide have increased to $632 billion in 2023, up by 4.2 per cent compared to 2022.[xii] Of these 100 arms companies, the arms revenues of the 41 companies based in the US grew by 2.5 per cent to $317 billion in 2023. Meanwhile, 27 arms companies of these top 100, headquartered in Europe, saw an increment of 0.2 per cent (totalled $133 billion) in arms revenues in 2023.[xiii]

Some Major Deployments by Ukraine and Russia

Since the inception of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, hundreds of thousands of weapons have been used by the two countries. While Ukraine has been deploying mainly foreign arms, Russia, on the other hand, has been using arms manufactured by itself, along with some equipment acquired from Iran. In the artillery and missile section, Ukraine has deployed Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles, High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) multiple launch rocket systems, Patriot air defence system, and M-777 Howitzer guns.[xiv] ATACMS is a surface-to-surface missile system with deep precision striking capability over 190 miles. HIMARS, often regarded as a gamechanger in media reports, is a truck-mounted rocket launcher which can fire guided missiles over fixed targets, such as command centres, ammunition depots, and communication systems. In tanks, Ukraine deployed Leopard-2, Challenger-2, and M1 Abrams tanks.[xv] With multi-layer armour, these tanks provided better protection to the crew against direct hits. Moreover, some prominent drone systems utilised by Ukraine are Bayraktar TB-2, DJI-Mavic-3 commercial drones, and Switchblade Kamikaze drones.[xvi] Bayraktar TB-2 is a Turkey-made medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) combat drone capable of being remotely controlled by a crew. DJI-Mavic and Switchblade are small-sized drones for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and precision striking purposes, respectively. 

On the other hand, Russia has deployed Iskander SS-26 ballistic missiles, Tornado-S multiple launch rocket systems, and 2A-36 Giatsint-B and D-30 Howitzer guns.[xvii] Iskander SS-26 is a lethal missile system with deep striking, almost double the range of Ukraine’s ATACMS systems (310 miles). Giatsint-B and M-777 have similar capabilities in terms of range and calibre. Kh-101 cruise missiles, Fareh-110, and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles are other crucial equipment Moscow has in its inventory.[xviii] Kh-101 is Russia’s most advanced air-launched strategic missile with a precision and accuracy of 5-6 metres.[xix] Fareh-110 and Zolfaghar are Iran-made short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking targets between 300 and 700 metres.[xx] Russia has also been massively using Iran-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones in the conflict.[xxi] The Russian forces, who had effectively used Shahed-136 to strike ground targets in Ukraine, have also started producing their variants. Overall, most of the weapon systems deployed by Russia and Ukraine proved effective against each other for some stage until the two countries deployed more advanced defensive and offensive systems.

The US Aid Disruption

On 01 March 2025, President Trump suspended all military aid to Ukraine following his distasteful interaction with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House on 28 February 2025. According to the Guardian, President Trump accused President Zelenskyy of ‘gambling with the Third World War and asked to come back when Ukraine is ready for peace’.[xxii] The reason behind the fiasco and the immediate aid disruption decision lies in the US's involvement in allegedly enforcing a peace deal on Ukraine through negotiating with Russia, without providing security guarantees.[xxiii] On 30 April 2025, the US and Ukraine signed a months-awaited critical mineral deal that may impact the US’s future assistance plans to Ukraine.

Conclusion

Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US arms companies are massively generating profits, delivering arms worth billions of dollars to Ukraine. Apart from the US, several European countries, such as Germany, the UK and Poland, are the major arms suppliers to Ukraine. The three years of inconclusive conflict have addressed a variety of arms transfers with an increased sophistication level. The recently concluded mineral deal between the US and Ukraine is likely to play a key role in the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and future supply of US military assistance to Ukraine.

Due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the transfer of arms and equipment to Ukraine and Europe would continue to rise, at least in the short term. The ongoing conflict causes other European countries to strive to beef up their security arrangements. Consequently, arms companies will continue to earn significant revenues while playing a dominant role in shaping the future course of the conflict.

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*Mukesh Kumar, Research Associate, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes  

[i] Kiel Institute. “Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine.” Accessed April 22, 2025. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.

[ii] Ibid.

[iii] “Ukraine Oversight: Special Inspector General for Operation Atlantic Resolve, Promoting Whole of Government Oversight of the U.S. Ukraine Response.” United States Government, n.d. https://www.ukraineoversight.gov/Funding/Security-Programs-Authorities/.

[iv] Kiel Institute. “Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine.” Accessed April 22, 2025. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.

[v] George, Mathew, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D Wezeman, and Siemon T Wezeman. “TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFERS, 2024.” SIPRI Fact Sheet. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 2025. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-03/fs_2503_at_2024_0.pdf.

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] Ibid.

[viii] Kiel Institute. “Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine.” Accessed April 22, 2025. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.

[ix] George, Mathew, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D Wezeman, and Siemon T Wezeman. “TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFERS, 2024.” SIPRI Fact Sheet. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 2025. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-03/fs_2503_at_2024_0.pdf.

[x] George, Mathew, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D Wezeman, and Siemon T Wezeman. “TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFERS, 2024.” SIPRI Fact Sheet. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 2025. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2025-03/fs_2503_at_2024_0.pdf.

[xi] Kiel Institute. “Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine.” Accessed April 22, 2025. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.

[xii] “World’s Top Arms Producers See Revenues Rise on the Back of Wars and Regional Tensions | SIPRI,” December 2, 2024. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2024/worlds-top-arms-producers-see-revenues-rise-back-wars-and-regional-tensions.

[xiii] Ibid.

[xiv] “Ukraine Weapons: What Arms Are the US, UK and Other Nations Supplying?” July 1, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218.

[xv] Ibid.

[xvi] “Ukraine Weapons: What Arms Are the US, UK and Other Nations Supplying?” July 1, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218.

[xvii] Ibid.

[xviii] “Weapons of War: The Race Between Russia and Ukraine | Council on Foreign Relations.” Accessed May 1, 2025. https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/weapons-war-race-between-russia-and-ukraine.

[xix] The Kyiv Independent. “Opinion: Russian Kh-101 Missile with US Components Continues Killing Ukrainians En Masse,” August 2, 2024. https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-russian-kh-101-missile-with-us-components-continues-killing-ukrainians-en-masse/.

[xx] Scollon, Michael. “Iranian Missiles Threaten To Boost Russia’s Deadly Air Campaign In Ukraine ,” October 22, 2022. https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-missiles-russia-air-campaign-ukraine/32095930.html.

[xxi] “How Are ‘kamikaze’ Drones Being Used by Russia and Ukraine?” July 24, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62225830.

[xxii] Roth, Andrew, and Lauren Gambino. “Ukraine ‘Gambling with World War Three’, Trump Tells Zelenskyy in Fiery Meeting.” The Guardian, March 1, 2025, sec. US news. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/trump-zelenskyy-meeting-ukraine-aid-war.

[xxiii] Kottasová, Ivana. “Why Has Trump Halted Military Aid to Ukraine and What Will It Mean for the War? Here’s What to Know.” CNN, March 4, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/04/europe/explainer-trump-suspends-ukraine-military-aid-intl-latam/index.html.