Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: The rise of Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, AfD) party and growing anti-immigration sentiment threaten the country’s ability to attract skilled migrants which it considers key. This undermines its economic competitiveness, especially when the German economy is facing problems, and risks losing migrant workers as the country loses its sheen as a favourable destination.

Introduction:

Germany faces a fundamental contradiction. On one hand, it needs skilled migrants to balance its workforce to address its demographic changes. On the other hand, the rapid ascent of the AfD poses a threat to this necessity. As Germany attempts to present itself as a ‘Modern Country of Immigration’ to attract global talent[i], rising anti-immigration and xenophobic sentiments within Germany challenge this goal.

Germany’s Critical Labour Shortage:

Germany defines ‘skilled workers’ as individuals who have completed at least two years of vocational training or have a university degree[ii]. The shortage of such workers has reached concerning levels and is estimated to reach 1.3 million by 2030[iii]. The demographic shift caused by Germany’s ageing population, lower birth rates and the retirement of baby boomers (people born between the years 1946 and 1964) from the workforceii has created a demand for immigration. While the shortage does not affect all sectors, professions like childcare, healthcare, IT and professional driving have been affected the mostii.

A Bertelsmann Foundation study revealed that without substantial immigration, the German workforce could shrink by 10 per cent in 2040[iv]. Experts have calculated that Germany would need around 400,000 additional permanent immigrants annually to maintain its labour force. The increasing pensioners and decreasing labour force have also caused a lack of government revenue to finance pensions[v].

Recognising the increasing job vacancies and Germany’s growing reliance on foreign labour, the government has adopted a multi-faceted approach to tackle it. Measures like enhancing vocational training programmes, promoting STEM education, improving working conditions and using immigration to attract foreign talent have been undertakeniii. The Skilled Immigration Act was reformed in 2023 to make it easier for workers to enter Germany. Reforms like lowering the minimum salary to qualify for the EU Blue Card, broadening the range of occupations under the Card and relaxing rules around qualification were introduced. In 2024, Germany introduced the ‘Chancekarte’ (Opportunity Card), allowing skilled workers to enter Germany without a permanent job offer[vi]. But just as its economy opens its doors, its domestic politics, with the rise of the AfD, seem to be slamming them shut.

The Rise of Anti-Immigrant Politics:

The case of the AfD represents one of Europe’s most dramatic rises of the far-right. Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party, the AfD capitalised on the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door policy in 2015, which led to a mass influx of refugees after the Syrian crisis, and strained Germany’s resources, causing anti-immigrant sentiment among German nationals. The AfD exploited the tensions around refugees and used anti-immigrant and Islamophobic narratives to gain traction, particularly in eastern Germany. Their messaging often paints immigrants not as contributors, but as threats to jobs, culture and to “Germanness” itself[vii].

From failing to enter the Bundestag in the 2013 elections, the AfD became the second-most popular party with 20.8 per cent of votes in the 2025 federal elections[viii]. Their election manifesto promised to reduce migration to its absolute minimum, reverse all laws on migration that do not serve German interests and put caps on skilled migration to prevent immigrants from benefiting from the German social welfare system after employment[ix].

A key component of the AfD’s campaign is its controversial call for “remigration,” a term it adopted to advocate for the large-scale deportation of immigrants, although criticised as a euphemism for radical ideas of “ethnic cleansing”[x]. Its calls for “zero net immigration” and mass deportations have forced the centrist parties to adopt stricter policies on immigration. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition had expedited deportations of failed asylum seekers. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, had initially collaborated with the AfD in January 2025 to propose stricter immigration laws, before shifting his focus back to economic issues following a controversy. The SDP has also emphasised “integration before immigration,” demonstrating the extent of AfD’s influence[xi].

AfD’s ascent has created and deepened social divisions within Germany, with polarised attitudes towards immigration. A January 2025 Deutschlandtrend poll revealed that 68 per cent of Germans support reducing refugee admissions, viewing refugees as a threat to their way of lifexi. Whereas, civil society groups, pro-immigrant activists and grassroots movements have resisted the AfD’s narratives[xii]. The resulting tension has exposed a core contradiction: Germany’s urgent need for skilled labour clashes with the very policies needed to address it.

Impact on Immigrants:

The political environment has become increasingly hostile for immigrants living and working in Germany, despite their significant contributions to its economy. In 2023, the immigrants employed in eastern Germany contributed to 5.8 per cent of the region’s GDP[xiii]. They contribute to Germany’s innovation ecosystem and technological advancement. They have a high representation in STEM fields, thus enhancing productivity and strengthening Germany’s R&D sector. Immigrants also contribute more in taxes, supporting Germany’s global competitiveness[xiv].

However, the immigrants have faced severe cases of racism, anti-Semitism and xenophobia, manifested in violence, according to Human Rights Watch[xv]. In 2024, Germany recorded 84,172 politically motivated crimes, a large portion being anti-migrant attacks caused by far-right actors[xvi]. There were cases of arson attacks on refugee shelters and cultural centres, marked with Nazi symbols and slogans like “Foreigners Out”[xvii]. Regular assaults on the immigrants were also recorded.

OECD studies have found that over half of immigrants have been subject to discrimination when seeking accommodation[xviii]. The Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency reported that 80 per cent of the organisations interviewed observed discrimination against refugees in the housing market[xix].

The German government data showed increasing attacks on asylum-seeker accommodation, hate crimes against mosques and the overall crimes committed by, or in the name of, right-wing extremists in 2024. The Interior Ministry linked these to the numerous regional elections where the AfD won significant vote shares[xx]. While affecting the lives of the existing immigrants, this environment can potentially deter skilled workers from considering Germany as a destination.

Impact on Indian Immigrants in Germany:

Indian immigrants in Germany constitute a significant portion of the immigrant population. Around 138,000 Indians hold skilled positions in Germany[xxi]. Approximately 24 per cent occupied specialist roles and 37 per cent expert-level positions. According to the data from the Federal Employment Agency, in 2024, 19 per cent of Indians were employed in the IT and ICT fields, 18 per cent in professional, scientific and technical services, 14 per cent in manufacturing[xxii], with high representation in R&D, natural sciences, engineering and medicine. It has been estimated that Germany’s skill gap would be 20 per cent wider without Indian immigrationxxi.

Germany and India have established comprehensive frameworks to facilitate skilled migration. The Migration and Mobility Partnership Agreement (MMPA), signed in November 2022 and Germany’s “Focus on India” strategy represent significant diplomatic developments. However, the AfD’s rising influence can potentially pose significant risks to these frameworks. If the AfD continues gaining political influence, it could pressure future governments to retreat from liberal skilled immigration policies. The recent parliamentary cooperation between mainstream parties and the AfD on migration issues signals a concerning trend towards restrictive policies on immigration.

Historically, Indian professionals have been among the most successful migrant groups in Germany, with high employment rates, strong integration outcomes and significant contributions to German technological advancement and entrepreneurship. India has one of the world’s largest English-speaking populations and technically qualified professionals, particularly in IT, engineering and healthcare, precisely the sectors where Germany faces the most shortages. Such policy reversals could not only damage bilateral relations but also harm Germany’s long-term economic interests.

Conclusion:

Germany stands at a critical crossroads where economic imperatives and political sentiment pull in opposite directions. The country’s desperate need for skilled migrants to address its worker shortage and demographic challenges directly conflicts with the rising influence of anti-immigration politics of the AfD. The political climate thus created directly impacts immigrants and those considering migration to Germany. While Germany needs to deal with its worker shortage by adopting holistic socio-economic policies dealing with emigration of German-origin nationals from Germany or work guidelines and ethics of German workers, India needs to reason its policy of “facilitating” migration to destination with a strong anti-migrant sentiment.

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*B. P. Nanditha Pai, Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal. 

Endnotes

[i] Federal Foreign Office, “Speech by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on the immigration of skilled workers at the labour and skilled workers congress of the Greens parliamentary group in the German Bundestag,” Federal Foreign Office, June 18, 2024, https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/2663724-2663724?isLocal=false&isPreview=false

[ii] Katharina Weckend, “Skilled labour shortage in Germany,” Lingoking, October 08, 2024, https://www.lingoking.com/en/guide/2024/10/skilled-labour-shortage-in-germany.html#:~:text=The%20German%20labour%20market%20could%20face%20a%20shortage,why%20is%20there%20a%20shortage%20of%20skilled%20labour%3F

[iii] Wolfgang Sender, “Current Shortage of Skilled Workers in Germany: Land That Job,” Life in Germany, October 18, 2023, https://en.life-in-germany.de/shortage-of-skilled-workers-in-germany/#google_vignette

[iv] DW, “Germany: 288,000 foreign workers needed annually until 2040,” DW, November 26, 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/germany-needs-288000-foreign-workers-annually-until-2040-study/a-70885279#:~:text=Despite%20recent%20reforms%20to%20labor%20migration%20law%2C%20Germany,in%20the%20next%20decades%20Image%3A%20Rupert%20Oberh%C3%A4user%2Fpicture%20alliance

[v] Sabine Kinkartz, “Germany: 1 in 4 immigrants doesn’t want to stay,” DW, June 17, 2025, https://www.dw.com/en/germany-1-in-4-immigrants-doesnt-want-to-stay/a-72936625

[vi] Smith Stone Walters, “How Germany plans to attract more workers by reforming the Skilled Immigration Act,” Smith Stone Walters, July 06, 2023, https://smithstonewalters.com/news/how-germany-plans-to-attract-more-workers-by-reforming-the-skilled-immigration-act#:~:text=On%2023%20June%202023%2C%20the%20German%20parliament%20approved,a%20shortage%20of%20skilled%20workers%20in%20key%20sectors

[vii] Liam Hoffman, “Germany’s Populist Wave: Understanding the AfD’s Recent Rise,” Princeton Political Review, January 18, 2025, https://www.princetonpoliticalreview.org/international-news/germanys-populist-wave-understanding-the-afds-recent-rise

[viii] Nicole Monette, “How Germany’s AfD Became a Political Powerhouse,” Geopolitical Monitor, June 17, 2025, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/how-germanys-afd-became-a-political-powerhouse/

[ix] Emma Wallis, “German elections: What does the AfD say about migration?” Infomigrants, January 22, 2025, https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/62349/german-elections-what-does-the-afd-say-about-migration

[x] Jessica Parker, “AfD embraces mass deportation of migrants as German election nears,” BBC, January 13, 2025, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62q937y029o

[xi] Antonio Bharadwaj, “How has the AfD’s stance on immigration and Islam influenced public opinion,” Foreign Affairs Forum, February 03, 2025, https://www.faf.ae/home/2025/2/3/how-has-the-afds-stance-on-immigration-and-islam-influenced-public-opinion

[xii] Kubra Aktas, “The Rise of the Far Right in Germany: Implications for Refugee and Immigration Policies,” The World Research Centre, March 2025, https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Rise-of-the-far-right-germany-last-version.pdf

[xiii] Alza Kryeziu, “East Germany’s Economic Growth Boosted by Foreign Workers, New Study Reveals,” Schengen News, August 26, 2024, https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/east-germanys-economic-growth-boosted-by-foreign-workers-news-study-reveals/#:~:text=Over%20403,000%20non-German%20nationals%20employed%20in%20East%20Germany,billion,%20and%20%E2%82%AC3.9%20billion,%20respectively,%20from%20foreign%20labour.

[xiv] Felix Braun, “Impact of Immigration Policies on Economic Growth in Germany,” Journal of Public Policy and Administration, August 2024, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/383522245_Impact_of_Immigration_Policies_on_Economic_Growth_in_Germany

[xv] Human Rights Watch, “Germany and Human Rights,” Human Rights Watch, December 18, 2024, https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/12/18/germany-and-human-rights

[xvi] Thomas Escritt, “Elections, Gaza, polarisation drive political crime to record high in Germany,” Reuters, May 20, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/elections-gaza-polarisation-drive-political-crime-record-high-germany-2025-05-20/

[xvii] The Times, “German police arrest suspected neo-Nazi teenagers,” The Times, https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/german-police-arrest-suspected-neo-nazi-teenagers-wbq9gqrvh

[xviii] Business and Human Rights Resource Centre, “Germany: Migrant workers face discrimination and racism in everyday life, according to OECD,” Business and Human Rights Resource Centre, January 31, 2024, https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/germany-migrant-workers-face-discrimination-and-racism-in-everyday-life-according-to-oecd/

[xix] Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency, “Risks of discrimination for refugees in Germany,” Federal Anti-Discrimination Agency (FADA), 2016, https://www.antidiskriminierungsstelle.de/SharedDocs/forschungsprojekte/EN/Studie_DiskrRisiken_fuer_Gefluechtete_en.html

[xx] Emma Wallis, “Germany: Number of attacks on asylum accommodation increased in 2024,” Infomigrants, February 03, 2025, https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/62608/germany-number-of-attacks-on-asylum-accommodation-increased-in-2024

[xxi] Rohr, Nora, Luena Zifle, and Dirk Werner, “Scholz in India: Without immigration from India, the skills gap would be 20 percent greater,” IW Message, October 25, 2024, https://www.iwkoeln.de/presse/iw-nachrichten/nora-rohr-luena-zifle-dirk-werner-ohne-zuwanderung-aus-indien-waere-die-fachkraefteluecke-20-prozent-groesser.html

[xxii] NRI Today, “Germany Welcomes Skilled Indian Workers With Increased Visa Quota,” NRI Today, November 14, 2024, https://nri.today/germany-skilled-indian-workers-visa-quota