Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: With the fast-changing regional geo-politics, there has been a growing synergy between the three countries of Bangladesh, Pakistan and China. Growing economic and defence cooperation between the three countries can open up new avenues of partnerships, which can alter the geo-strategic balance in the region. 

During the last one year, there has been a growing partnership between Bangladesh and Pakistan and Bangladesh and China, especially after the dismissal of the Awami League government in Dhaka. Trying to build a different geo-political posture than the previous government, the Interim government led by Muhammad Yunus took the initiative of building relations with Pakistan. Due to the existing geo-strategic compulsions, Bangladesh had maintained its distance in the past with Pakistan, in view of the atrocities committed by the Pakistani Army on the common masses which led to the Liberation War and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. Bangladesh also shares more than 4000kms of international borders with India, and had restrained from taking steps that could undermine India’s position and interests in the region. 

While Yunus sought for the re-invigoration of a regional grouping in the region, similar to that of the defunct South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), it has made attempts to build a tripartite alliance in the last few months, with Pakistan and China for better connectivity, economic and defence cooperation. As per Yao Wen, the Chinese envoy to Dhaka, China's collaboration with Bangladesh and Pakistan is founded on mutual trust and openness, and it is not directed against any other nation. Bangladesh and China have pinpointed 12 key sectors for collaboration, such as trade, industry, education, environmental conservation, water resource management, culture, and more.[i] Attempts are being made to create a common understanding between major political stakeholders, like the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and the Communist Party of China (CCP), for building a stronger partnership between the two polities. A Jamaat delegation went on a special visit to Beijing recently in the month of July on the invitation of the CCP. 

An informal trilateral meeting took place on 21 June on the sidelines of the ninth format of the China-South Asia Exposition and the 6th China-South Asia Cooperation Forum which was organised in Kunming. The meeting saw the presence of the former Acting Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh Md. Ruhul Alam Siddique, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, and Pakistani Additional Foreign Secretary Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, leading their respective delegations. A specialized working group was formed to carry out pilot projects in identified areas mentioned above, demonstrating a commitment to transforming the trilateral cooperation into tangible developmental results.[ii]

Acting Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh Md. Ruhul Alam Siddique noted that, as being part of the Belt and Road Initiative, like minded nations have the opportunity to work together by aligning with Bangladesh’s 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. He emphasized the need to build a better collaborative understanding, partnering in their developmental agendas to bring tangible benefits to their citizens and enhance their quality of life.[iii]

Bangladesh hesitated to disclose details of the Kunming meeting—reportedly asking China to provide its press statement beforehand as well as distancing itself with the Pakistani press statement — signals not only caution but also an understanding of the meeting’s potentially contentious and sensitive nature that can have a deeper impact on Bangladesh’s geo-strategic position. There are rising concerns within the Bangladeshi strategic circles about the role of the Interim government taking critical strategic decisions, which might have a long-standing impact on Bangladesh’s geo-political position.[iv]

It has been highlighted that a potential alignment of interests among China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh might have implications for India's security landscape.[v] Pakistani and Chinese navy accessing ports in Dhaka and having closer defence collaborations, China participating in building colonial airbases inside Bangladesh as well as being part of river water projects which are important both to Bangladesh and India, pose questions with regard to India’s geo-strategic interests and security.

If the present Yunus government, in cohort with the Pakistani and Chinese counterparts move ahead to develop synergies and new initiatives seeking to bring Sri Lanka, Maldives and Afghanistan into the arrangement, it will certainly be a regional arrangement, bringing the major stakeholders of the region together on a single platform with China, excluding India. Both China and Pakistan sees this as an opportunity to make inroads in the sectors of connectivity, economic and defence cooperation, that will strengthen their geo-strategic interests. If Bangladesh agrees for the creation of such a platform, it will be in open defiance with its long-standing position of not undermining India’s strategic interests in the region. The question remain that can a non-elected interim government in Bangladesh opt for such a geo-strategic shift, which will certainly be a concern that will alter the future of the region. It goes without saying that attempts to exclude India in its own region and backyard will have serious consequences for South Asia and beyond.

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*Dr. Dhrubajyoti Bhattacharjee, Sr. Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] China-Bangladesh-Pakistan co-op open and transparent, not targeting any third country: Yao Wen, The Business Standard, 09 July 2025, https://www.tbsnews.net/foreign-policy/china-bangladesh-pakistan-co-op-open-and-transparent-not-targeting-any-third-country accessed on July 15, 2025

[ii] China-Bangladesh-Pakistan Axis Rattles India, Challenges U.S. Strategy in Indo-Pacific; How Will Washington, Delhi Respond? OPED, Eurasian Times, June 30, 2025, https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-bangladesh-pakistan-axis-rattle/ accessed on July 15, 2025

[iii] Bangladesh joins tri-nation meeting with China & Pakistan in Kunming, All India Radio, June 22, 2025, https://www.newsonair.gov.in/bangladesh-joins-tri-nation-meeting-with-china-pakistan-in-kunming/ accessed on July 15, 2025

[iv] China-Bangladesh-Pakistan Axis Rattles India, Challenges U.S. Strategy in Indo-Pacific; How Will Washington, Delhi Respond? OPED, Eurasian Times, June 30, 2025, https://www.eurasiantimes.com/china-bangladesh-pakistan-axis-rattle/ accessed on July 15, 2025

[v] “CDS Gen Chauhan warns against Pak-China-Bangladesh 'collusivity' for India's security interests, Deccan Herald, July 09, 2025, https://www.deccanherald.com/india/cds-gen-chauhan-warns-against-pak-china-bangladesh-collusivity-for-indias-security-interests-3621468 accessed on July 15, 2025