Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: Following the student movement in August 2024, which resulted in the dismissal of the Awami League government, there was a hope that there would be a general consensus with regard to building political stability within the country, building a “New Bangladesh”. However, as time has passed, political polarisation, factionalism, and political violence have increased, complicating the interim government's decision to proceed with the general elections next year. 

Following the violent nationwide student movement last August, which led to the dismissal of the Awami League (AL) government under Sheikh Hasina, a sense of hope emerged among political circles for fostering national unity. This unity was intended to reflect the aspirations of the students who lost their lives during the movement, as well as the collective hopes of the people of Bangladesh.. However, in the last few months, one witnessed significant polarisation, factionalism and violence between radical student and Islamic groups, including the Jamaat, as well as political voices of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the remnant parties that survived during the AL regime, which is posing a major challenge for the interim government under Muhammad Yunus, who proposes to hold free and fair general elections next year. 

With the unexpected success of the mass movement that led to the dismissal of the AL government in August 2024 and Hasina seeking refuge in India, there was a hope among the general masses that this marked the beginning of a new chapter in Bangladesh’s political history. 

Muhammad Yunus was selected to be the Chief Advisor to the Interim Government on 15 August 2024 on the promise that he would orchestrate bringing the country to its true democratic roots through electoral reforms and conducting free and fair elections, representing the aspirations of the millions for whom hundreds laid down their lives during the student movement. However, even after the passage of a year, Yunus has not been able to consolidate the various political stakeholders together and remains busy legitimising his position, rewriting Bangladesh’s foreign and fiscal policies. The nation presently witnesses severe political instability, religious radicalism, polarisation and a breakdown of law and order at both national and provincial levels. 

A Chaotic Political Landscape 

Uncertainty about the future of democracy in Bangladesh has become apparent due to the ongoing political instability and lawlessness in the country. A section of students who led the effort to oust Hasina has formed a new political party. The National Citizen Party (NCP), rooted in the National Citizen Committee, which was behind the student movement, was formed with the promise of breaking the hegemony of the country’s two main political parties – the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Hasina's Awami League. But the party’s opponents allege that the NCP is close to the Yunus-led administration and is using state institutions to create chaos for political gain by leveraging their position to strengthen their political clout, as well as bringing radical Islamic elements into mainstream politics, thereby altering the nature of the political landscape. 

Meanwhile, the country’s largest radical Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami, has reentered active politics following more than a decade of repressive policies under the Hasina government. This party was banned from participating in active politics in 2013 after the Bangladesh Supreme Court cancelled the registration of the partyThe current grassroots strength of the party is unclear, as it has not participated in elections for over a decade. The political landscape of Bangladesh has become more divided since Jamaat became active in electoral politics, as they have been able to demonstrate significant street power during political and religious rallies in the last few months. 

Amidst ongoing human rights issues, cases of political assassinations, and corruption against former Prime Minister Hasina, as well as the ban of AL from participating in the forthcoming elections, the existing stakeholders are attempting to fill the resulting political vacuum. 

The two parties, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, once electoral allies, are now in a face-off over establishing dominance in the administration and judiciary and even on university campuses. 

There are also differences of opinion among them over the timing of new parliamentary elections. The lack of a clear consensus between the interim government and political parties on the election date has caused confusion. The head of Bangladesh’s military also called for elections by December of this year, a position that the Yunus government did not like. 

As per some analysts, interim setups that evolve post dismissal of an alleged repressive government remain temporary and short-lived as they are not able to meet the high expectations of the masses of restoring democracy and prosperity. But an interim set-up without a public mandate cannot achieve such aspirations, due to their lack of legitimacy and capacity to govern.[i]

Elections and Reforms

While there is a general consensus amongst various parties on the need for reforms, there is widespread disagreement over exactly how many reforms should be carried out before conducting the elections, as the legitimacy of such reforms carried out by an unelected government can be questioned later. The interim government’s consensus commission is in the process of holding talks and creating convergence of ideas with all political parties except AL and the then opposition Jatiya Party.[ii]

The various reform proposals include limiting the number of times a person can serve as prime minister, introducing a two-tier parliament, and the process of appointing the chief justice. BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have agreed on some conditions, but discussions have become complicated, particularly concerning proposals to amend the basic structure of the constitution.

Jamaat-e-Islami wants to give the interim government enough time to complete reforms before the elections, while BNP has initially called for elections by December and later by February 2025, subject to negotiations. Per the latest statements, the interim government proposes to conduct the elections by July 2026. On the other hand, most of the NCP's views on the issue of reform match with those of Jamaat-e-Islami. The issue of reform was supposed to unite the country, but instead it has become a source of friction. The divide is now clear between those who want to see reform and give it more time and those who think it’s time to bring things to a close and concentrate on the upcoming elections.[iii]

Human Rights and Islamic Radicalism

The issue of human rights and the atrocities against the ethnic and religious minorities have become a serious concern under the Yunus regime. The religious minorities, especially the Hindu minority, have accused the present government of abetting such violence being perpetrated openly. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist-Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC) said Hindus and other religious minorities were targeted in hundreds of attacks from last year till now. Even the remnants of the AL supporters have blamed the interim government for detaining thousands of supporters.[iv] However, the Yunus government has denied such allegations.

Meenakshi Ganguly, Deputy Director of the Asia division at Human Rights Watch, stated that the Yunus government has taken steps to bring an end to enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings that were alleged to be common during the past regime. But it failed to fulfil its promises of lasting reforms in the security sector or building strong, independent institutions.[v] However, the release of convicted offenders, people linked with global terrorist institutions and rampant prison breaks remain a cause of serious concern. Some radical elements within the Jamaat have also sought the revision of constitutional rights for women, seeking the establishment of Shariat laws in Bangladesh. Smaller parties even plan to forge a coalition with either the BNP or Jamaat to form the next government. Though having a Muslim majority, Islamic parties have failed to win elections on their own in the past. It remains to be seen if such coalitions, if formed, can change the electoral history of Bangladesh, which will give rise to more radicalism and polarisation in the social and political fabric of the country.

Challenges for Foreign Policy Decision Making

With the ouster of the AL government, Bangladesh has moved closer to China and Pakistan as preferred allies, instead of India, which traditionally and geopolitically has been the country’s closest partner in Bangladesh’s growth story. The renewed Sino-Pak-Bangladesh axis harks to familiar and old tactics of Pakistan to maintain its influence in Bangladesh post 1971 and of China to assist its all weather friend in this endeavour.

Past administrators had opted for India as their first option for a bilateral state visit, which was broken by Yunus, choosing his first bilateral state visit to China in March 2025, during which he secured pledges of cooperation in the form of bringing in fresh investments while requesting to push back the repayment of existing loans to a later period. On the other hand, India providing asylum to Hasina and highlighting the atrocities and persecution against ethnic and religious minorities, especially Hindus, has not been to the liking of the Yunus regime.

Though the current regime may receive some support from the Western powers, it is uncertain how long it can maintain itself  in the face of negative economic growth, political instability, lawlessness, and the rise of religious radicalism. The West too has limited bandwidth given the proliferation of conflict situations in the world. It may help to recall that, during Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US earlier this year, President Trump had remarked that they leave Bangladesh to India to handle.

*****

*Dr. Dhrubajyoti Bhattacharjee, Sr. Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Michael Kugelman, Official X Handle @MichaelKugelman, July 16, 2025, https://x.com/MichaelKugelman/status/1945314564993683614 accessed on July 16, 2025; Bangladesh struggles to contain the fallout of an uprising that toppled its leader last year, Associated Press, July 15, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-yunus-hasina-student-uprising-a66a85e7c17970c4d1fc66a0187d9a75 accessed on July 16, 2025.

[ii] হাসিনা-পরবর্তী বাংলাদেশের রাজনীতিতে বিভক্তি প্রকট, দৈনিক ইত্তেফাক গ্রুপ, ১৬ জুলাই ২০২৫, https://www.ittefaq.com.bd/741817/%E0%A6%B9%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A8%E0%A6%BE-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%80-%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%82%E0%A6%B2%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A6%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B6%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%9C%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%80%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%AD%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BF-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%9F%C2%A0 accessed on July 16, 2025

[iii] Bangladesh struggles to contain the fallout of an uprising that toppled its leader last year, Associated Press, July 15, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-yunus-hasina-student-uprising-a66a85e7c17970c4d1fc66a0187d9a75 accessed on July 16, 2025.

[iv] হাসিনা-পরবর্তী বাংলাদেশের রাজনীতিতে বিভক্তি প্রকট, দৈনিক ইত্তেফাক গ্রুপ, জুলাই ১৬, ২০২৫, https://www.ittefaq.com.bd/741817/%E0%A6%B9%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%B8%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A8%E0%A6%BE-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%B0%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%80-%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%82%E0%A6%B2%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A6%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B6%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0-%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%9C%E0%A6%A8%E0%A7%80%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%87-%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%AD%E0%A6%95%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BF-%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%95%E0%A6%9F%C2%A0 accessed on July 16, 2025.

[v] Bangladesh struggles to contain the fallout of an uprising that toppled its leader, ABC News, July 15, 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/bangladesh-struggles-fallout-uprising-toppled-leader-year-123758220 accessed on July 16, 2026.