Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: By creating situations that have forced the Taiwanese President to suspend travel plans to Eswatini, the Cross-Strait relations have once again become complicated. Maintaining peace and stability across the Strait is essential for the global economy and the prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region. 

Amid ongoing global churn, the issue of Taiwan’s reunification with China has gained traction. Developments in Taiwan are vital to the global community because Taiwanese firms are leaders in electronics, information technology, communications, and semiconductor technology.  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a global leader in the semiconductor industry. China is pursuing a dual-track approach towards Taiwan. On the one hand, it is engaging in coercive actions, such as naval exercises, repeated airspace violations and chequebook diplomacy. On the other hand, it is attempting to engage in peace talks by reaching out to Taiwan’s opposition party. The paper analyses the latest trends in Chinese assertiveness towards Taiwan and its efforts to unify Taiwan with the mainland. 

Taiwanese President William Lai was due to visit Eswatini in Africa from 22 to 26 April 2026 to attend the 40th anniversary of King Mswati’s accession and his 58th birthday. Eswatini is the only African country that maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan. On 22 April 2026, under pressure from China, three African countries, the Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar, denied Taiwanese President William Lai’s aircraft permission to fly over their airspace. This is the first time a Taiwanese President has had to suspend his visit on this pretext. Later, President Lai sent a video message to the King of Eswatini to congratulate him on the occasion, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung attended the ceremony as the President’s special envoy.[i]

China praised the three countries for their decision to deny the airspace to the Taiwanese President. An editorial in Global Times emphasised that, “facts have once again proven that the one-China principle is a basic norm of international relations and a broad consensus of the international community.”

There has also been a significant international response to this development. The EU expressed concerns about overflight rights, with a spokesperson stating via email that “Overflight rights are a cornerstone of international civil aviation, and predictability and neutrality in airspace management are critical to safety, commerce and diplomacy.” Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis and the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) have condemned China’s action.[ii]

Taiwan has criticised China’s “crude action”,[iii] with the President’s Office stating that “the three countries’ decision is the result of strong pressure from China, including economic coercion.”[iv] Consequently, on 23 April 2026, the Ocean Affairs Council Minister Kuan Bi Ling visited Itu Aba Island/Taiping Island[v] in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea to observe a maritime rescue drill. This was the first visit by a council head to the disputed island in seven years.[vi]

China orchestrated the denial of airspace to the Taiwanese President, just after a few days, Taiwan’s opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, visited China from April 7-12, 2026, on a “peace mission”. The Cheng Li-wun visit was particularly significant for Cross-Strait relations, as it was the first visit by a Kuomintang Party leader since 2016. She visited China on the invitation of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Xi Jinping. During her visit, she stated that, “both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a political foundation based on the 1992 consensus and opposition to Taiwanese independence.” Although there were no joint statements or declarations following the visit, Xi Jinping announced 10 policies and measures to enhance cooperation with Taiwan, including inter-party communication, infrastructure, trade, culture and travel. China capitalised on the opportunity to promote party-to-party diplomacy and advance its interests. Xi Jinping reaffirmed, “Taiwan independence is the chief culprit that undermines peace across the Taiwan Strait, and we will never tolerate or condone it.”[vii] The visit heightened the optics, offering China yet another chance to reaffirm its stance against Taiwan’s independence and foreign interference in the Cross-Strait relations.

Earlier, during the New Year’s speech, Xi Jinping stated, “We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!” [viii] Moreover, at the National People’s Congress held in Beijing from 4 March to 11 March 2026, members discussed Taiwan. Premier Li Qiang said Beijing would “resolutely crack down on separatist activities”. It is worth recalling that on December 29, 2025, China conducted a two-day large-scale joint military exercise, “Justice Mission 2025,” along the Taiwan Strait. It was the sixth round of large-scale war games conducted by the PLA since 2022, when the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited the island.[ix] These exercises carry political messaging for “Taiwan separatist forces” and “Taiwan’s potential foreign allies”. Overall, China is continuously intensifying its assertiveness towards Taiwan through multiple means, both overt and covert. From time to time, it uses terms like “bond of blood and kinship” to soften its stance towards Taiwan. It also leverages economic power to reduce Taiwan’s diplomatic space and activities.

Conclusion

The fragile state of Cross-Strait relations suggests that any miscalculation in the region could lead to serious consequences. Maintaining peace and stability across the Strait is essential for the global economy and the prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region. China’s military and “grey-zone” tactics in the region are not only confined to Taiwan but extend throughout the first island chain from the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea, leading to heightening regional tensions.

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*Dr. Teshu Singh, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

End Notes

[i] Minister returns from Eswatini after Lai’s canceled trip, Taipei Times, April 28, 2026,  https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/04/28/2003856397, Accessed on April 28, 2026. 

[ii] International concerns raised after Lai’s flight blocked, April 23, 2026, Taipei Times, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/23/2003856080 , Accessed on April 23, 2026. 

[iii] Lai’s trip cancelled over PRC pressure, Taipei Times, April 22, 2026, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/22/2003856018, Accessed on April 23, 2026. 

[iv] Lawrence Chung, Taiwanese leader Lai postpones Africa trip after 3 nations revoke overflight permission, South China Morning Post, April 21, 2026, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3350917/taiwanese-leader-lai-postpones-africa-trip-after-3-nations-revoke-overflight-permission?module=inline&pgtype=article , Accessed on April 23, 2026. 

[v] Itu Aba Island is a disputed Island in the South China Sea. It is controlled by Taiwan but claimed by China, Vietnam and the Philippines.  

[vi] OAC head makes rare visit to Taiping, Taipei Times, April 24, 2026, Taipei Times, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/04/24/2003856138, Accessed on April 24, 2026. 

[vii]  Jesse Johnson, Xi tells Taiwan opposition chief China will ‘never tolerate’ island’s independence, Japan Times, April 10, 2026, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/04/10/asia-pacific/politics/china-taiwan-kuomintang-xi-cheng/?utm_source=pianodnu&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=72&tpcc=dnu&pnespid=.ukulocmvbhcp7e4ogdzvp0b7ekv.csqwhbzfvmxsucvggrundupckbhxjjr5jumnzldwg , Accessed on April 23, 2026. 

[viii] Ringing in 2026, Xi envisions new chapter of China's miracle, https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202512/31/content_WS69550ccfc6d00ca5f9a085d4.html , Accessed on April 24, 2026. 

[ix] Recent Developments in Cross-Strait Relations, April 2023, ICWA,  /show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=9334&lid=6056#:~:text=This%20was%20the%20second%20intense%20military%20exercise,China%20after%20Nancy%20Pelosi's%20visit%20in%202022.&text=Teshu%20Singh%20is%20a%20Research%20Fellow%20at%20the%20Indian , Accessed on April 24, 2026.