On 15th September the former President of Maldives Mr. Mohamed Nasheed made a statement regarding a clear agreement between him and the former ruler of the Maldives and the President of Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM)’s Mr. Abdul Gayoom to unseat the current President of Maldives Mr. Abdulla Yameen. The question is whether the alliance will be successful in its endeavour to replace the current President Mr. Yameen who also belongs to the PPM. The possible alliance between the two erstwhile rivals at the moment seems to provide a tough challenge for the government. However, replacing the current regime through legal means as claimed by the opposition may not be an easy task because of the following internal reasons: Mr. Yameen’s hold on the PPM parliamentarians, shifting of party loyalties, support extended by opposition parliamentarians to the government policies and uncertainty of a new alliance.
Yameen’s hold on PPM parliamentarians
President Mr. Yameen’s hold on members of Majlis (parliamentarians) is one factor which may work in favour of the government. Since 2014, the government of Maldives has been able to pass various discriminatory laws with the support of parliamentarians. This is mainly because of shifting loyalties of parliamentarians from one party to another. The change in composition of members of Majlis based on party loyalties indicates the same. The table below provides the information:
Table1: Political party Composition in Majlis
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
|||
PPM |
43 |
PPM |
44 |
PPM |
47 |
MDP |
23 |
MDP |
22 |
MDP |
22 |
JP |
12 |
JP |
11 |
JP |
8 |
MDA |
5 |
MDA |
5 |
MDA |
6 |
AP |
1 |
AP |
1 |
AP |
1 |
Independent |
1 |
Independent |
2 |
Independent |
1 |
Source: People’s Majlis (parliament), Republic of Maldives
The composition of members along party lines shows that the PPM is in control of the Parliament. The above data show that the PPM has always maintained a majority in the parliament, and in fact their number has increased since 2014. The Jumhoori Party (JP) MPs had often shifted their loyalties over the last two years, which helped the current regime to tighten its grip on the parliament. The numbers of the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP), the Adhaalath Party (AP) and the Maldives Democratic Alliance (MDA) have not changed significantly.
This has resulted in smooth passage of various bills in parliament. Even after the differences emerged openly between Mr. Gayoom and Mr. Abdulla Yameen on few government policies, very few parliamentarians of the PPM have shifted their loyalties to Mr. Gayoom. For example, Mr. Gayoom’s call for vote against the Anti-Defamation and Freedom of Expression Bill that was introduced to Parliament in August 2016 was not followed by a majority of PPM parliamentarians. Within the ruling coalition ‘while 38 legislators of the PPM voted in favour of the Defamation Bill for reviews, 14 legislators showed opposition to the acceptance of the Bill’.i This led to the passage of the Bill that criminalised defamation in the Parliament on 9 August 2016 with 47 members of the Majlis voted in favour of the bill and 31 voted against the Bill in the 85 member Majlis. The passing of the Bill was a setback for the Maldives because it again criminalised defamation which was repealed in 2009 under Nasheed government. In another instance amendment to the Tourism Law was implemented despite the reservations expressed by Gayoom. The amendments to the Tourism Law in June 2016 provided authority to the government to lease islands, lagoons and land without a bidding process. Mr. Gayoom’s son, MP Faaris Maumoon, was expelled from the party as he voted against amendments to the Tourism Law.
The above developments indicate that Mr. Gayoom’s hold on the PPM parliamentarians is weakening and he is losing control over the party he had founded. After Mr. Gayoom suspended PPM committees, some MPs of the PPM went to court against the action of Gayoom. The difference of opinion between the two leaders of the party has emerged mainly due to Gayoom’s objection to grant the party ticket to Mr. Yameen to contest in 2018 presidential elections without a primary. According to him, ‘selecting a candidate without a primary is against the democratic principles of the party’.ii The former Home Minister Umer Naseer resigned in June 2016 to contest for the post of President in 2018 elections. Since then, the rift widened between the two leaders and Mr. Gayoom’s daughter, who was a foreign minister in Mr. Yameen’s government, resigned in July 2016, citing differences with the government over its support to implement death penalty in the Maldives. However, the resignation of the foreign minister or the home minister did not result in split of the party. The above facts indicate that as of now Mr. Yameen enjoys support from his party.
Shifts in Political alliances
Another hurdle which may come in the way to achieving the objective of the new alliance is the shifting of party loyalties by opposition parliamentarians based on the policy decisions of the government in the parliament and outside. This has worked to the government’s advantage on a number of occasions. One example was the support extended by some of the MDP and the JP parliamentarians to the PPM in the parliament in 2015 to impeach the then-Vice-President Mr. Jameel, who is now part of the Maldives United Opposition (MUO). The support was extended to pass the bill that introduced free land holding and a change in the age limit of the president and the vice-president. Ten MPs of the ‘main opposition MDP and nine MPs of the JP had supported the bill that introduced free land holding’.iii The support was extended with a hope that the former President Mr. Nasheed will be released from prison. However, after getting the support in parliament, the government reneged on its promise to MDP. The PPM-controlled government could also exploit the business interests of the JP leader Qasim Ibrahim in the Maldives to garner support for the government policies. The shifting of political alliances during the passing of the bills mentioned above indicates that the room is open for flexible political alliances in the Maldives and the political alliances will depend upon the interests of the parliamentarians and the parties. Meanwhile, the former MDP Chairperson Moosa Manik accused Mr. Nasheed of ‘hijacking’ the party. He claimed to have initiated a reform programme in order to “bring the party back on track.”iv Since most of the opposition leaders are in exile, how the MUO is going to mobilise people on the ground is an issue.
Corruption charges against the President
Amidst political developments in the Maldives, Al Jazeera documentary, Stealing Paradise, which was aired in September 2016, ‘exposed massive corruption of the Maldives government, including theft, bribery and money laundering’.v The documentary accused President Abdulla Yameen of receiving cash in bags filled with up to $1 million. The story was told through ‘data obtained from three of the former Vice-President Ahmed Adeeb's smartphones and dozens of confidential documents’.vi Before the Al Jazeera documentary on corruption was made public, the opposition MDP accused the president of benefiting from the scandal involving the Maldives Media and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC). The MMPRC had ‘mediated the leasing of over 59 different tourist hotels, resorts and yacht marinas, out of which 53 had been leased through an agreement with the Tourism Ministry’.vii And the official audit report of the MMPRC had revealed that over US$79 million had been embezzled through the state tourism promotion company, SOF Pvt. Ltd., linked to the former Vice-President Mr. Ahmed Adeeb, who is jailed on terrorism charges. The MMPRC report did not blame the president. However, the MDP ‘claimed that US$500,000 was deposited in an account under the name of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom at the Maldives Islamic Bank on October 12 last year’.viii In June 2016, the Anti-Corruption Watchdog (ACW) had questioned the president regarding the scandal. Following the allegations, the Government of Maldives initiated an investigation into the scandal. Under these circumstances, the government dismissed the allegations of the Al Jazeera documentary “report as biased and in pursuance of an already declared agenda against the government”.ix
Following the airing of the documentary, Transparency Maldives in a statement said that “the widespread impunity in cases of corruption and the abuse of power is a consequence of the powers of the state being held in the firm grip of a few powerful people”.x Transparency Maldives had also launched a public campaign to release Abdul Kareem, a former Assistant Manager at the Bank of Maldives, who was responsible for leaking documents related to the corruption, insisting that he is a whistle-blower and did not deserve to be punished for exposing corruption.xi
For the past few months, the government took various precautionary measures to curtail widespread resentment against the government. For instance, the office of Maldives newspaper, Maldives Independent, was raided on the pretext of organising a coup against the government because its editor appeared in the Al Jazeera documentary. The government asserted that the people who appeared in the documentary will have to bear the responsibility ‘if they cannot prove in court the truth of their assertions, and action will be taken if they gave false information to harm the Maldives, harm the government, and destroy the economy.’xii Apart from Maldives Independent, Raajje TV journalists were also threatened and cases were filed against the journalists for airing material against the government.
The government also revoked the passports of the main opposition leaders Mr. Nasheed, after he got the refugee status in London, self-exiled former Vice-President Mr. Jameel and the MDP Chairperson Ali Waheed on 7th September 2016 along with the other five suspects wanted in connection with the MMPRC corruption scandal. The ‘immigration’s move came after Nasheed travelled to neighbouring Sri Lanka reportedly to attend a series of sit-downs over an imminent move to oust incumbent president Abdulla Yameen from office’.xiii Three members of the MDP National Council were arrested on charges of rioting and attempting to overthrow the government. Another precaution that was taken was to quell dissent within the security forces. In August 2016, the Ministry of Defence, Maldives had barred the soldiers from meeting “ministers, lawmakers, political appointees, candidates seeking public office, political party leaders and political activists without prior permission from a senior military official. The ban also extends to foreign diplomats, officers of foreign armies and other foreign representatives”.xiv This was because Mr. Nasheed sought cooperation from the security forces for the opposition movement against the government. The above measures by the government had ensured that the widespread protests against the government were not organised.
Uncertainty of new Alliance
The new-found friendship between the two former presidents of the Maldives may not last long simply because there is no certainty over the longevity of the possible alliance between Mr. Gayoom and Mr. Nasheed. Mr. Nasheed was the first democratically elected President of Maldives in 2008, and his campaign’s primary objective was to replace the autocratic regime of Mr. Gayoom, who ruled the Maldives for three decades. In fact, Mr. Nasheed was in exile in Britain during Gayoom’s rule and mobilised opposition against the government for restoration of democracy, rule of law and protection of human rights. The current regime of Mr. Yameen is also following the same autocratic methods of Mr. Gayoom by controlling state institutions and by suppressing opposition leaders. Mr. Nasheed got a refugee status in May 2016 in Britain on the basis that there is a threat to his life in the Maldives. At the same time, the differences between the two brothers seemed to be over control of authority, and not so much over the restoration of democratic institutions in the Maldives. In this context, how the MUO alliance with Mr. Gayoom will work is uncertain. Therefore, both the leaders’ objectives to replace Mr. Yameen before or through the presidential elections of 2018 may not materialise owing to the basic ideological differences between the parties they represent. The MDP beliefs in Centre-Right principles including respect for democracy, human rights and individual freedoms, the protection and preservation of cultural and national heritage, and the promotion of private enterprise.xv The first democratic elections in 2008 were fought on the basis of establishing democratic governance in the country. Whereas the PPM beliefs in sustaining Islam and national unity, unitary system and independent judicial system.xvi
CMAG Recommendation
Amidst the political developments mentioned above, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) meeting was held on 23 September 2016 to review the Maldives’ progress on the CMAG recommendations of February and April 2016 meetings. The ‘CMAG meeting expressed regret that a substantive political dialogue was yet to be initiated which remains critical to achieve national agreement on institutional reform and to ensure a conducive environment for credible and inclusive presidential elections in 2018’.xvii The group expressed disappointment over the lack of progress in the priority areas, that were identified in the February 2016 meeting, such as political dialogue, release of political leaders from detention, promote freedom and space for civil society, repeal of anti-terrorism legislation and separation of powers. Therefore, CMAG placed the Maldives on formal agenda. And the CMAG may consider the option of suspending the Maldives from the Council of the Commonwealth at its next meeting in March 2017, if there is no progress on recommendations.
After the CMAG’s decision, the Government of Maldives expressed its interests to open dialogue with the opposition parties by mid-October this year. After the government, the MDP also expressed its interests to engage in political party talks, which is a positive development. The government also agreed to the UN mediation in the talks as demanded by the opposition.
Conclusion
Despite the interests shown by the government for political dialogue with the opposition, the growing concentration of power under President Yameen and his hold on the PPM members through various means are still existent and this is difficult to scuttle. Mr. Gayoom also employed various methods such as monetary benefits, political patronage, intimidation and threats to rule the Maldives for long. The same strategy is being adopted by Yameen. Therefore, power transfer or change in the authoritarian polices of the government through legal means, as proposed by the opposition, is a difficult task. In this scenario, the Maldives will have to find its own national solutions to the challenges it faces as emphasized by the CMAG in its September meeting.
***
* The Authoress is a Research Fellow with the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are that of the Researcher and not of the Council.
Endnotes
i Junaid Mohammed, ‘Defamation Bill: Debate reveals divide inside PPM”, 2 August 2016, https://raajje.mv/70077
ii Rasheed Zaheena, “PPM divisions reopen over Gayoom’s opposition to grant Yameen party ticket”, 16 June 2016, http://maldivesindependent.com/politics/ppm-divisions-reopen-over-gayooms-opposition-to-grant-yameen-party-ticket-124858
iii Naish Ahmed, “Majlis approves foreign freeholds in second amendment to constitution”, 22 July 2015, http://minivannewsarchive.com/politics/majlis-authorizes-foreign-ownership-of-land-in-second-constitutional-amendment-101193
iv Visham Mohammed, “Ex-Chairperson sets out to rescue ‘hijacked’ MDP”, 20 September 2016, http://en.mihaaru.com/ex-chairperson-sets-out-to-rescue-hijacked-mdp/
v Jordan Will, Exclusive: Maldives president's corruption revealed, 8th September 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/exclusive-maldives-president-corruption-revealed-160904110226846.html
vi Jordan Will, Exclusive: Maldives president's corruption revealed, 8th September 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/exclusive-maldives-president-corruption-revealed-160904110226846.html
vii Visham Mohammed, “Maldives govt responds to ‘biased’ Al Jazeera expose”, 8 September 2016, http://en.mihaaru.com/maldives-govt-responds-to-biased-al-jazeera-expose/
viii Naish Ahmed, “US$79m embezzled in Maldives’ biggest corruption scandal”, 6 February 2016, http://maldivesindependent.com/politics/us79m-embezzled-in-maldives-biggest-corruption-scandal-122013
ix Visham Mohammed, “Maldives govt responds to ‘biased’ Al Jazeera expose”, 8 September 2016, http://en.mihaaru.com/maldives-govt-responds-to-biased-al-jazeera-expose/
x Transparency Maldives, “ Money laundering Allegations Must be Investigated Government Must End Harassment of Civil Society”, 9 September 2016, Press Release, http://transparency.mv/v16/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/EN_2016_09_09.pdf
xi Visham Mohammed , “Transparency Maldives launches campaign to free tourism graft whistleblower”, 22 September 2016, http://en.mihaaru.com/transparency-maldives-launches-campaign-to-free-tourism-graft-whistleblower/.
xii Naish Ahmed, “Committee to Protect Journalists condemns raid of Maldives Independent office”, 13 September 2016, http://maldivesindependent.com/politics/cjp-condemns-raid-of-maldives-independent-office-126503
xiii Visham Mohammed, “Maldives revokes passports of exiled opposition official, graft fugitives”, 22 September 2016, http://en.mihaaru.com/maldives-revokes-passports-of-exiled-opposition-official-graft-fugitives/
xiv Visham Mohammed , “Maldives bars soldiers from meeting politicians, foreign diplomats”, 11 August 2016, http://en.mihaaru.com/maldives-bars-soldiers-from-meeting-politicians-foreign-diplomats/
xv “MDP highlights its existing right-of-centre political ideology”, 19 February, 2007, https://themdp.wordpress.com/2007/02/19/mdp-to-promote-right-of-centre-political-ideology/
xvi PPM Manifesto, 2013, https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bz4iv-2752i2OTk0dGEzbEdnaDA/edit?pli=1
xvii Commonwealth, “Concluding Statement of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group”, New York, 23 September 2016, http://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/CMAG%20Concluding%20Statement%252c%20%2023%20September%202016.pdf