India and Saudi Arabia are set to write a new chapter in their bilateral relations. Continuing with the policy of engaging the neighbourhood1, PM Modi is undertaking a two-day visit to the Kingdom on 2-3 April 2016. The timing of the visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Riyadh holds great significance, especially when both the countries do not see some of the developments that have taken place in the region in the last couple of decades as necessarily favourable to their national interests. Both, Riyadh and New Delhi view that they have shared interest in maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the region.
However, amid the growing relationship between the two countries, especially in the last one decade,2 it appears that India and Saudi Arabia need a more open and candid diplomatic overtures to enter into a new phase of strategic engagements. For instance, they have to shed the Cold War baggage to elevate their ties. They need a pragmatic approach to meticulously analyse the changing strategic equations in the region and enhance their mutual interest. The interest of major powers in West Asia is incrementally changing. The focus of the US, which had kept the region stable and peaceful for the last half a century, is shifting to South East and East Asia and Latin America. President Putin has been seen as a restorer of the past Russian glory even at the cost of pushing Moscow once again into the regional conflicts, be it Georgia (2008), Ukraine or Syria. With the mission complete in Syria3, Moscow seems to have become a resident power in the Levant. Kremlin is also busy in winning back its old regional allies, including Egypt and Iraq and developing new equations with Iran and overtures towards Saudi Arabia clearly shows its calibrated moves.4
Further, the situation in the Gulf has also changed remarkably in last one year. Iran has emerged now as a power with new dimension in the region after more than three decades of sanctions. Despite intensive efforts, the problems in the region have continued to foment: sectarian (shia-sunni) and ethnic (Kurdish) conflicts are still lingering; Saudi Arabia’ Yemen policy has further widened the sectarian divide with Iran; continuing Syrian stalemate and discrimination of the Sunnis by the Shia majority government in Iraq have supported the cause of the terror organisations such as Daesh and Al Qaida affiliates5. As a result, the old geopolitical and geostrategic landscapes are transforming, which need participation of the emerging Asian powers to stabilise the region.
The rise of Daesh has given a new definition to terrorism; the group is working as a proto state, sponsoring extremism and terrorism, and has spread the menace across more than hundred countries6, including America, Europe, Africa and Asia. In the midst of deteriorating political and security situation in the region, the relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are increasingly tense; both are vying for regional hegemony and global leadership of the Muslim community. Peace and security in Afghanistan is still fragile, while Pakistan is struggling with self created security threats.
Given the situation in the region, the visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Saudi Arabia seems quite significant. Riyadh and New Delhi needs to work together on their shared interest and contribute in maintaining peace and stability in the region, besides exploring new areas of cooperation at bilateral levels.
Scope in Bilateral Cooperation
Economic- promotion of bilateral investment
Counter-terrorism
Funding of private Institutions
Strategic Oil Reserves
Defence and Security
Cooperation in Maritime Affairs
Cooperation on Regional Issues
India and Saudi Arabia are maritime neighbours. Hence, the opportunities and challengers for both countries in the region are almost common. For instance, the growth and development of both countries are dependent and complementary to each other; the stakes at sea for both are high and the two countries want free and safe maritime trade; both want to combat terrorism and extremism and save their youth from radicalisation; both have historical and close people to people relations and want to harness it for mutual benefit. Therefore, both can only exploit these common potentials to their growth and developments, when the region remains stable and peaceful. As a result, the interest of India and Saudi Arabia lie in evolving a synergy in their regional policy outlook.
Conclusion
The situation in the region is at the cusp of change. Looking at the high stakes in the region, New Delhi needs to invest political and diplomatic capital and hedge its national interest. At this juncture, Saudi Arabia seems to be fighting its battle alone. Its oldest ally, the US, has not only shifted its focus but also suggested Riyadh to share the region with Tehran, while Riyadh’s largest trading partner, China, is also looking at Iran for making its One Belt One Road initiative successful. Pakistan, ‘a brother and historical ally’, has also taught the Kingdom a tough lesson of realist approach of diplomacy. This is the right time for New Delhi to approach Riyadh and forge a close diplomatic tie based on mutual, regional and bilateral interest. Already, Pakistan’s daily Dawn has termed PM Modi’s visit as a ‘wake up call for Pakistan’.
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* The Author is a Research Fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
The Views expressed are that of the Researcher and not of the Council.
End Notes:
1 India considers Saudi Arabia, a maritime neighbor.
2 In the last one decade, two important high levels visits took place between India and Saudi Arabia. In 2006, King Abdullah visited India after a gap of more than half a century and signed the Delhi Declaration. In 2010, Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh paid the exchange visit and signed the Riyadh Declaration, which alerted the ties between the two countries into a ‘strategic’ one.
3 There is a growing traction to divide Syria divided into two parts on sectarian line. Northern part bordering the Mediterranean Sea where the Russian Naval and Air bases are will be under the Alawaites with Russian support, rest of the half country into other state.
4 During the visit of the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salaman to Moscow in September 2015, both the countries showed some signs of agreements on vexed issues such as Syria, Yemen and energy. Russia abstained from the UN resolution on Yemen, which was in favour of restoring President Hadi. Saudi Arabia also promised to invest $10 billion despite the sanctions imposed by the US and other countries. They have also agreed to cooperate on civilian nuclear issues.
5 Jabahat al Nusra (JAN) in Syria and re-emergence of Al Qaida of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and around 1400 other rebel groups active in Syria are not letting the problems to settle down, although the Russia air-cover has helped the Syria army to recapture several important places from the ISISL, including the recent success of taking over Palmyra City.
6 According to the UN, more around 25,000 fighters have joined Daesh and other terror groups from more than 100 countries.
7 For detailed information visit the Make in India Website: http://www.makeinindia.com/sectors
8 ‘As India seeks to build strategic reserves, UAE’s Adnoc agrees to store crude’, Business Line, February 10, 2016, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/as-india-seeks-to-build-strategic-reserves-uaes-adnoc-agrees-to-store-crude/article8219639.ece, (accessed on 17 March 2016)
9 Up to 49 per cent investment is allowed under the government route, above 49% on a case-to-case basis on approval by the Cabinet Committee on Security, wherever it is likely to result in access to modern and state-of-the-art technology.
10 DEFEXPO, The Indian Express 28 March 2016.