On 15 September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) signed a new enhanced trilateral security partnership. In his remarks, President Joe Biden stated: “AUKUS: a partnership where our technology, our scientists, our defence forces are all working together to deliver a safer and more secure region that ultimately benefits all.” [i] It is a step that will supplement other existing partnerships such as Australia, New Zealand and the United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), Association of Southeast Nation (ASEAN), the QUAD and Five Eyes countries (US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand) in the Indo Pacific region. The first major deliverable of AUKUS will be a nuclear-powered submarine fleet to Australia.[ii] This has caused anxiety in China.
Although the statement by President Joe Biden on AUKUS does not suggest that it is against any one country, China perceives the trilateral security alliance as an effort to counter China. The paper analyses the Chinese perspective on AUKUS.
Chinese Perspective on AUKUS
Expressing concern about the trilateral security alliance, the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China stated: “it will gravely undermine regional peace and stability, aggravate arms race and impair international nuclear non-proliferation efforts.” He further added that “the three countries should discard the Cold War zero-sum mentality and narrow geopolitical perspective, follow the trends of the times for peace and development, and stop forming exclusive blocs or cliques.”[iii]
China has listed five harms that AUKUS will bring to the region. The trilateral alliance may cause risks of nuclear proliferation, induce a new round of arms race, undermine regional prosperity and stability, sabotage the building of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Southeast Asia and revival of the Cold War mentality. China further added that it is against “the trend of the time.”[iv]
China believes that it is a deliberate move by the US and the UK to provide carriers of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear technology and nuclear materials with the Anglosphere world, and the process is counter to the objective of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.[v] China is apprehensive about the role of the US and goes on to say “the US has never got tired of moving its allies around like pieces on a chessboard against China.” [vi] China has been continuously issuing statements on AUKUS, the Chinese Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs Li Song said: it “is a “textbook case” of nuclear proliferation based on the Cold War mentality and narrow-minded geopolitical calculation.”[vii]
China is highlighting that the ASEAN countries are wary of AUKUS and are concerned about the implications of the alliance. The Southeast Asian countries have not released any official statement as there is no consensus among the ASEAN states on the alliance, though countries such as Malaysia have expressed concern as it would spark a regional arms race.[viii] The Indonesian Foreign Minister has said that it “takes note cautiously”.[ix]
Plausible Reasons for AUKUS
It may be recalled that the relationship between China and Australia was already on a downward trajectory. Chinese government discontinued the economic dialogue and cancelled two deals under Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Australia. In 2018, Australia was the first country to block Huawei from the 5G network. In 2020, Australia had joined other countries asking for a probe into the origins of coronavirus disease.[x] China was barred from purchasing certain commodities such as coal, barley, copper ore and concentrate sugar, timber, wine and lobster from Australia.[xi] In addition, China had been interfering in the political process of the Australian government.[xii] These factors would have contributed to the already tense situation between China and Australia. Therefore, Australia would have made an assessment of moving towards the alliance.
The aggressive Chinese behaviour in the South China Sea is also responsible for the formation of the alliance. Referring to QUAD and AUKUS, Mark J Valencia in an editorial in South China Morning Post opined that “these actions were taken because ASEAN has been spectacularly ineffective in dealing with regional security issues like South China Sea dispute.” [xiii]
According to the US naval intelligence, by the time the first new Australian submarine is put to sea, China will add six nuclear-powered attack submarines by 2030 and is expanding production facilities, in addition to its rapid construction of diesel-electric submarines.[xiv]
A few days after the announcement of AUKUS, the first in-person meeting of the four leaders of the QUAD was held in Washington DC at the White House. A joint statement was released after the meeting.[xv] The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign affairs said that “these countries have been keen on insinuating China with the so-called “rules-based order”, playing up and inciting the so-called “China threat” theory and driving a wedge between regional countries and China.”[xvi] These countries should abandon the Cold War mentality and forming a small group and “do more to promote solidarity and cooperation among countries in the region as well as regional peace and stability”.[xvii] Earlier, in 2018, Wang Yi called QUAD “the seafoam in the Pacific or Indian Ocean; they may get some attention, but soon will dissipate.”[xviii] On the contrary, QUAD is gradually expanding its agenda and the leaders have started meeting frequently.
Conclusion
It is premature to decode the consequences and impact of AUKUS. The AUKUS countries will need to keep a watch on the Chinese actions and its stance towards the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the developments in the Taiwan Strait and its overall engagement with the ASEAN region. With AUKUS, however, a new dynamism has come to the forefront in the Indo-Pacific region.
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*Dr. Teshu singh is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views are of the author.
End Notes
[i] Remarks by President Biden, Prime Minister Morrison of Australia, and Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom Announcing the Creation of AUKUS, The White House, September 12, 2021
accessed on 1 October 2021
[ii] ibid
[iii] Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian's Regular Press Conference on September 22, 2021, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1908814.shtml
accessed on 1 October 2021
[iv]AUKUS nuclear submarine deal brings five harms to region, says Chinese FM, People's Daily, 30 September 2021, http://en.people.cn/n3/2021/0930/c90000-9903020.html,
accessed on 4 October 2021
[v]Guo Xiaobing, AUKUS plans to provide nuclear submarines to Australia seriously endangers nuclear non-proliferation, Global Times, 19 September 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234647.shtml
accessed on 4 October 2021
[vi] GT Voice: Supply chain security only a fig leaf for US geopolitical aggression, Global Times, 23 September 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234958.shtml#:~:text=It%20seems%20that%20the%20US,supply%20chains%20or%20regional%20security.,accessed on 5 October 2021
[vii] Huaxia, Chinese ambassador slams AUKUS pact as “textbook case” of nuclear proliferation, Xinhuanet, 13 October 2021, http://www.news.cn/english/2021-10/13/c_1310242751.htm
accessed on 14 October 2021
[viii]AUKUS likely to harm regional stability, raise tensions, say analysts, Xinhuanet, 20 September 2021, http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/30/c_1310219900.htm
accessed on 4 October 2021
[ix]Prime Sarmiento, Southeast Asian nations view AUKUS with caution, China Daily, 22 September2021, http://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202109/22/WS614a6696a310cdd39bc6a89b.html
accessed on 4 October 2021
[x]Timothyna Afua Duncan, How Australia and China’s trade relationship broke down, 9 July 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/09/how-australia-and-chinas-trade-relationship-broke-down.html#:~:text=However%2C%20the%20once%2Dstrong%20trade,economic%20dialogue%20in%20May%202021.&text=The%20dispute%20escalated%20in%202020,the%20origins%20of%20the%20coronavirus
accessed on 6 October 2021
[xi] China to Halt Key Australian Imports in Sweeping Retaliation
Bloomberg News , 3 November 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-03/china-to-halt-key-australian-commodity-imports-as-tensions-mount
accessed on 14 October 2021
[xii] Eleanor Albert, China-Australia Relations Continue Their Downward Spiral, The Diplomat, 4 November 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/china-australia-relations-continue-their-downward-spiral/
accessed on 6 October 2021
[xiii] Mark J. Valencia, Caught between China and the US, Asean must be louder and brasher about peace, South China Morning Post, 7 October 2021,
accessed on 7 October 2021
[xiv]Biden should be aware that your Submarine Deal has costs, The New York Times, 30 September 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/30/opinion/aukus-china-us-australia-competition.html , accessed on 7 October 2021
[xv] Joint Statement from Quad Leaders, The White House, 24 September 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/joint-statement-from-quad-leaders/
accessed on 1 October 2021
[xvi] Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Regular Press Conference on September 27, 2021, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/t1910208.shtml
accessed on 6 October 2021
[xvii] ibid
[xviii]Foreign Minister Wang Yi Meets the Press,3 September 2018, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1540928.shtml
accessed on 6 October 2021