Introduction
One of the most significant political events this year in Southeast Asia would be the general elections in the Philippines to elect a successor to President Rodrigo Duterte, whose six-year term is coming to an end. According to the constitution of Philippines, the President is permitted only one term of six years. The Philippine voters will head to the polls on May 9, 2022 to elect a new President along with the Vice President, Senators, and new terms for local officials. As per the final list unveiled by the Philippines Commission on Elections (Comelec) on January 25, 2022, there are ten candidates for the President[i], nine Vice Presidential candidates[ii], and 64 aspirants will vie for the 12 Senators post in the upper chamber.[iii] While Philippines electoral system has generally been consistent throughout its history it has also undergone a meandering process of transition since the authoritarian rule under Ferdinand Marcos was ended by a ‘people power’ revolt in 1986. The paper looks into the underlining factor which has and continues to remain pivotal in shaping the political discourse in the Philippines.
Background on Philippines Electoral Politics
After the Philippines was granted Commonwealth status in 1935[iv], its Constitution provided for a Presidential form of government patterned on the United States (US) model with Manuel Quezon as President and Sergio Osmaña as Vice President.[v] After the sovereignty was transferred by the US colonial administration and Philippines became an independent state on July 4, 1946, it continued with the US constitutional model with an elected Presidential system of government constrained in principle by congressional and judicial checks and balances.[vi] The plurality electoral system in the Philippines has been enshrined in its 1935, 1973, and 1987 constitutions. Under the 1987 constitution, all elective officials which include the President, Vice-President, Senators, members of the House of Representatives, local chief executives, and local legislators are chosen by a direct vote of the people through a ‘first-past-the-post-system’.[vii]
The 1935 Constitution provided for a unicameral National Assembly, however through an amendment in 1940 the legislature was changed to a bicameral congress. The amendment also changed the term limit of the President of the Philippines from six years with no re-election to four years with a possibility of being re-elected for a second term. The Constitution remained unaltered until 1947 when the Philippine Congress called for its amendment through Commonwealth Act No. 733. [viii] As per the 1947 constitutional amendment the term of the members of the House of Representative was four years and that of the Senate was six years. The first twenty years of Philippines independence saw the nation witnessing economic challenges along with major political leadership vacuum. These conditions enabled the rise of Ferdinand Marcos, an ambitious young senator from northern Luzon, to win the Presidential elections in 1965 and become one of the most powerful political figures in the post-independence history of the Philippines. The advent of authoritarian rule under Marcos was established when martial law was declared in September 1972, before the end of his second term and not surrendering power after two full terms as provided in the constitution.[ix] During the period of Marcos’ authoritarian rule, democratic elections were briefly replaced by ‘demonstration elections’ held under duress. The economic mismanagement along with the increasing abuse of power by the administration led to disillusionment against the political and legal institutions forcing the end of martial law in January 1981. President Marcos under pressure from the US and the country’s continued economic woes called for a snap election in February 1986 in which he was challenged by Corazon Aquino, the widow of Benigo Aquino. Corazon Aquino was declared winner of the election with Marcos and his wife being forced to leave the country on February 25 for exile in Hawaii.[x]
Re-Democratisation Post-Marcos
President Aquino initiated the restoration of a legitimate constitutional structure with the US model being reinstated in a slightly modified form with a bicameral Congress but with provision for a single presidential term of six years. This new constitution was approved with an overwhelming vote in favour of a national referendum held in February 1987. Carazon Aquino completed her full tenure under the new constitution and was succeeded by Fidel Ramos who won the elections in May 1992 by appealing to voters on the basis of his military professionalism, loyalty to the Aquino administration, and a promise to carry out further reforms.[xi] Ramos’ presidency led to the consolidation of Philippines democracy by undertaking a series of economic reforms that helped put the country’s economy on the path of growth. His presidency also witnessed the restoration of political stability, securing a peace agreement with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) – a Muslim secessionist movement – and negotiating with Communist insurgents and military rebels. These measures ensured that the Philippines was not hit as hard as the other Southeast Asian countries during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98. However, despite the positive developments post-Marcos economic governance has failed to reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore, despite the successful reformist President like Ramos, the country has witnessed the rise of strong populist leaders that won the presidency backed by strong support from the poor voters.[xii]
Joseph E. Estrada who won the elections in 1998 as a consequence of strong support from the poor voters was a product of Ramos’s failure, despite his reforms. However, the weak governance of the Estrada administration which was plagued by scandals and controversies resulted in an erosion of public confidence. This led to President Estrada’s ouster from office in a People Power Revolution in 2001 and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo became the new President. President Arroyo however, became so unpopular that by 2004, she only narrowly won over her closest rival. In June 2005, President Arroyo was confronted by the ‘Hello, Garci’ controversy which led to a huge public outcry and severely compromised both the impartiality of the election commission and the electoral process.[xiii] President Arroyo was able to complete her full term in office but her popularity remained very low. Her administration also failed to address key social and economic challenges relating to poverty and inequality.[xiv] The 2008 financial crisis and its impact on the slowdown of the global economy made the economic conditions facing the Philippines even more difficult with the unemployment rate, according to official reports, increasing from 7.4 percent in January 2008 to 7.7 percent in January 2009. There was also a sharp decline in remittances from overseas Filipino workers which is critical for its economy as it is estimated to be equivalent to 11 percent of the country’s GDP.[xv]
Following the 2010 elections, the new administration under President Benigno Aquino III made notable successes that included passing of the reproductive health and “sin tax” reform laws, implementing twelve years of basic education, extending public finance reform, expanding fiscal space and social spending, and making an effort to provide greater autonomy to Muslims in Mindanao. The country’s GDP growth reached 6.5 percent; however, it was not sufficient to help reduce poverty.[xvi] The need to decrease inequality through job creation and social welfare remains the main policy goals of the Philippines’ democratic political system. Failure to meet these expectations often led to the rise of strong populist leaders that won the elections.[xvii] The incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte who describes himself as a populist and a nationalist took office on June 30, 2016, on the strength of a campaign that promised execution of drug dealers and other criminals. Major reforms have been accomplished by the Duterte government in regard to private investment promotion along with infrastructure promotion through the ‘Build Build Build’ programme, resulting in the economy growing moderately prior to the pandemic. Philippines GDP posted a growth of 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021 on account of strong growth in the wholesale and retail trade.[xviii] According to the Asian Development Bank, the Philippines’ economy has shown impressive resilience and according to the Asian Development Outlook 2021, its economy will grow by 5.12 percent in 2021 and 6.0 percent in 2022.[xix]
Philippines’ polity over the years has been marked by populist leaders sustained by the country’s deep socio-economic inequities. In the coming elections, the pandemic and its socio-economic fallout will loom large in the minds of most voters. The candidates will need to convince voters that they can revive the economy and upgrade the country’s infrastructure including the healthcare sector. Amongst the Presidential candidates, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, son of former President Ferdinand Marcos, is currently the frontrunner according to most opinion polls. Marcos Jr has a strong social media presence and is popular amongst the young voters. In his campaign he has promised a “unifying leadership” that prioritize the pandemic recovery, economic growth, continue the fight against the communist insurgency and also negotiate a resolution to territorial disputes with China while fostering ties with the US and Russia.[xx] The incumbent Vice President of Philippines Leni Robredo has been steadily gaining in the polls since she announced her candidature on October 7, 2021.[xxi] Robredo is pressing for public sector transparency and has vowed to lead a government that cares for the people and to bolster the medical system. Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso, is another key candidate. He has promised ‘zero tolerance’ of Chinese maritime aggression in the South China Sea and his economic agenda centres on housing, labour, health and infrastructure. Presidential candidate Senator Manny Pacquiao is a former international boxing champion and has been critical of Duterte’s close relationship with China. He has pledged to improve the healthcare system, eradicate corruption, spur economic growth and provide housing for the poor.[xxii] The candidates have close to three months before Election Day to gain the support of the 65.7 million domestic and 1.8 million overseas voters whose decision would help usher in a new leadership in the Philippines.
Conclusion
Democracy remains the preferred system of government for the citizens in Philippines. However, successive administrations have not been able to accomplish growth in the socio-economic front. The economy which was doing well until the pandemic, while it is showing signs of recovery; its revival would be one of the major challenges for the new administration. Improved growth performance, increase employment opportunities, and improved living standards would continue to remain the major issue, which would be a key factor in addressing vulnerabilities to its existing democracy.
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*Dr. Temjenmeren Ao, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
End Notes
[i] Presidential candidates are:
[ii] Vice Presidential candidates are:
[iii] Dwight De Leon, “It’s Final: 10 names on the 2022 ballot for president , 9 for VP”, Rappler, January 25, 2022, https://www.rappler.com/nation/elections/comelec-releases-final-list-candidates-national-local-polls-2022/, Accessed on January 30, 2022.
[iv] The 1935 Constitution provided the legal basis of the Commonwealth Government which was considered a transition government before the granting of the Philippine independence. The draft of the constitution was approved on February 8, 1935 and ratified by Pres. Roosevelt in Washington D.C on March 25, 1935. Elections were held in September 1935, in which Manuel L. Quezon was elected as the President of the Commonwealth. See:// https://nhcp.gov.ph/the-constitution-of-the-philippine-commonwealth/
[v]Julio Teehankee, “Electoral Politics in the Philippines”, https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/01361006.pdf, Accessed on January 17, 2022.
[vi]Joseph ChinyongLiow, Dictionary of the Modern Politics of Southeast Asia, (Routledge: Oxon, 2015), p. 31 and 324.
[vii]Julio Teehankee, “Electoral Politics in the Philippines”, https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/01361006.pdf, Accessed on January 17, 2022.
[viii] “Evolution of the Philippines Constitution”, Official Gazette,
https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/constitutions/constitution-day/, Accessed on February 8, 2022.
[ix]David Chandler, Norman G. Owen, William R. Roff, David Joel Steinberg, Jean Gelman Taylor, Robert H. Taylor, Alexander Woodside, and David K. Wyatt, The Emergence of Modern Southeast Asia, (University of Hawai ‘i Press, 2005), p. 291-295.
[x]Mark R. Thompson, “The Philippines: ‘People Power’, a Troubled Transition, and ‘Good Governance’’, in in Sergio Bitar and Abraham F. Lowenthal (eds), Democratic Transitions: Conversations with World Leaders, (John Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, 2015), p- 208-211.
[xi]Joseph Chinyong Liow, Dictionary of the Modern Politics of Southeast Asia, (Routledge: Oxon, 2015), p. 31-32.
[xii]Mark R. Thompson, “The Philippines: ‘People Power’, a Troubled Transition, and ‘Good Governance’’, in Sergio Bitar and Abraham F. Lowenthal (eds), Democratic Transitions: Conversations with World Leaders, (John Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, 2015), p- 213-217.
[xiii]Patrick Ziegenhain, Institutional Engineering and Political Accountability in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines,(ISEAS: Singapore, 2015), p-104-105.
[xiv]Steven Rood, “Examining the Arroyo Legacy in the Philippines”, The Asia Foundation, April 7, 2010,https://asiafoundation.org/2010/04/07/examining-the-arroyo-legacy-in-the-philippines/, Accessed on November 25, 2022.
[xv]Mark R. Thompson, “The Philippines: ‘People Power’, a Troubled Transition, and ‘Good Governance’’, in in Sergio Bitar and Abraham F. Lowenthal (eds), Democratic Transitions: Conversations with World Leaders, (John Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, 2015), p- 217.
[xvi]David G Timberman, “Philippine Politics Under Duterte: A Midterm Assessment”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 10, 2019, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/10/philippine-politics-under-duterte-midterm-assessment-pub-78091, Assessed on January 25, 2022.
[xvii]A recorded phone call conversation from President Arroyo was publicly circulated, in which she asked the Chairman of the national election commission (COMELEC) Virgilio “Garci” Garcillano to rig the vote counting in such a way that she would win the presidential elections by a margin of a million votes. See: Patrick Ziegenhain, Institutional Engineering and Political Accountability in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines,(ISEAS: Singapore, 2015), p-104-105.
[xviii]“GDP posted a growth of 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2021”, Philippines Statistics Authority, November 9, 2021, https://psa.gov.ph/content/gdp-posted-growth-71-percent-third-quarter-2021 , Assessed on January 25, 2022.
[xix]“ADB Raises 2021, 2022 Growth Forecasts for the Philippines”, Asian Development Bank, December 14, 2021, https://www.adb.org/news/adb-raises-2021-2022-growth-forecasts-philippines#:~:text=The%20supplement%20to%20the%20Asian,Philippines%20Country%20Director%20Kelly%20Bird., Accessed on January 25, 2022.
[xx] Andreo Calonzo, “How another Marcos could win power in the Philippines”, Bloomberg, January 28, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-28/how-another-marcos-could-win-power-in-the-philippines-quicktake, Accessed on February 8, 2022.
[xxi] Sol Iglesias, “The 2022 Philippine Election: A Poll Over Democracy”, Australian Institute of International Affairs, January 25, 2022, https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/2022-philippine-election-poll-over-democracy/, Accessed on February 8, 2022.
[xxii] Neil Jerome Morales, “Factbox: Key contenders for Philippines’ 2022 presidential election”, Reuters, February 8, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/key-contenders-philippines-2022-presidential-election-2022-02-08/, Accessed on February 8, 2022.