The New Year (2022) in Kazakhstan began with an unprecedented situation emerging out of protests and violence. The quick spread of demonstrations and the scale of violence in some areas was certainly beyond the expectations of many area watchers. On 2 January 2022, the demonstrations began peacefully in the oil-producing city of Zhanaozen in western Kazakhstan over sharp rise in price of liquefied petroleum gas, which is used by many Kazakh people as car fuel. The protests spread to other parts of the country, including capital Nursultan. However, the most affected was Almaty, the largest city, commercial hub and former capital, where symbols of state authority were targeted, including the Presidential residence, Mayor’s office, police stations, and also offices of the ruling Nur Otan party. In the protests, 225 people, including 19 security personnel, were killed and more than 4,500 were injured as per official figures.[1] The protests turned into a major political and security issue for the country.
Initially, the government seemed to have resolved the situation amicably and politically. The demands were accepted by putting a halt on gas price rise.[2] President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also accepted the cabinet’s resignation and a new government was formed.[3] However, as the protests continued and turned violent, the government dealt with it with force. It was viewed by the government as a terrorist attack, emergency was declared and forces were given order to shoot. Subsequently, the government stated it was a coup attempt.[4] The country’s former domestic intelligence chief Karim Massimov, who is considered close to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been arrested on charges of treason.[5]
Causes of Protests
Kazakhstan became independent with the breakup of the erstwhile Soviet Union in early 1990s. Since independence, Nazarbayev remained President of the country continuously for about 30 years until he resigned in 2019, at the age of 78 years. Current President Tokayev is considered to have been chosen by the former President[6], though he was elected in the 2019 presidential elections. Former President despite demitting the office, continued to wield influence by holding various key power positions, including as the head of the National Security Council and of the ruling Nur Otan party. It seemed that the post-Nazarbayev government was representing more of continuity than change from the previous dispensation, until recently. The angst of the protesters was also directed towards the Nur Otan party and the former President, whose statues were reportedly torn down and party office was attacked.
Kazakhstan is rich in hydrocarbons, mineral resources, besides its vast arable lands. The country has more than 5,000 deposits of mineral resources, estimated to be of tens of trillions of dollars.[7] It is among the world’s top 10 exporters of grain and flour. The population of the country is about 19 million and about half of it is below 30 years of age, and one-fourth below 15. Kazakhstan is the region’s largest economy (WB 2019: US$ 181.6 billion). Nevertheless, over the last couple of years the economic progress has been impacted due to low hydrocarbon prices, reduced demand of energy carriers, and above all the COVID-19 pandemic. As in other parts of the world, due to COVID people are strained not only economically but also psychologically. It is reported that economic inequality, concentration of wealth in few hands, corruption, and lack of opportunities for the youth to improve their condition seems to be among driving economic reasons leading to the current protests.
There has been a history of protests in the same region. About a decade back in May 2011, oil workers in the town of Zhanaozen went on strike over their pay and working conditions, occupying the town square. The strike continued until the police opened fire on December 16, killing more than 10 people and injuring many others. It seems that the questions raised by the people in their previous demonstrations concerning their livelihood condition still reverberate and will continue to be expressed by them in different forms unless addressed satisfactorily by the authorities in Kazakhstan.
Apart from the domestic economic and political factors behind the protests it can be said that the recent regional developments might have an influence on the situation. Three years have passed since Tokayev became the new President. His initial focus on reforms must have generated hope among the Kazakh people. They might be comparing the transformation in neighbouring Uzbekistan since the new government came to power in 2016, following the death of long-ruling President Islam Karimov. Uzbekistan is pursuing all round reforms in the country, which has been widely welcomed. Seemingly, people in Kazakhstan are also looking towards accelerated reforms in their country with the change of President after three decades.
Implications
The situation is becoming normal, however, the government will be expected to speed up the political, economic and social reforms with tangible results. For some time, it seems that the shuffling of persons in key positions, including in the government and the ruling party, is likely to continue. ‘Sweeping’ changes in government positions, including the executive and legislative branches is on-going.[8] President Tokayev is now Chairman of Kazakhstan’s Security Council and has been elected unanimously as the Chairman of the Nur Otan party. Alikhan Smailov is now new Prime Minister while Koshanov is the new head of the Majilis, the lower house of Parliament. Erlan Karin has been appointed as the State Secretary of Kazakhstan with an expanded mandate.[9] The process of transition and consolidation is underway.
It is significant that none of Kazakhstan’s neighbours wants instability in the country. In recent years, regional cooperation and integration has got traction and Kazakhstan supported the process. Stable Kazakhstan can follow the cooperation agenda much more confidently. Kazakhstan pursues ‘multi-vector’ policy and it is a member of various regional political, security and connectivity initiatives, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and the Belt and Road Initiative of China (BRI).
An important development was the deployment of CSTO forces in order to stabilise the situation in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan Ministry of Defense said that the CSTO deployment was ‘timely and effective’. It added that peacekeeping contingent served with dignity, guarding the Almaty airport, military depots and other vital strategic facilities, ensuring their complete security.[10] The CSTO forces have left Kazakhstan.[11] It was for the first time that CSTO made a military intervention in a member country, indicating its desire to secure stability in the region. Afghanistan in the neighbourhood of Central Asia is yet to settle and trouble in Kazakhstan creates concerns for all CSTO members. From Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which is a neighbour of Afghanistan, are CSTO members.
India has cordial relations with Kazakhstan and it is the country’s largest trading partner in Central Asia. In a statement, India expressed ‘deepest condolences’ to families of innocent victims and said that it is closely following the developments. Thousands of Indian students are studying in educational institutions in various parts of Kazakhstan. There are also many Indians working in various sectors of the Kazakh economy. In response to a question in the Parliament, Minister of State for External Affairs Meenakashi Lekhi said that there are about 7,000 Indians in Kazakhstan and they are ‘safe and secure’.[12]
Finally, the series of unexpected developments have been drawing extensive political and media attention from across the globe as Kazakhstan has been considered a politically stable country and a successful economic development model in the region. The economic-centric protests by people in remote western oil producing region mutated into widespread protests as the immediate reason was connected to a larger population, which became a rallying point. The unique characteristic of the protest was that it was not led by any identified political leaders or groups. From regional perspective, this once again highlights the necessity of an active regional security mechanism in Central Asia.
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*Dr. Athar Zafar, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views are of the author.
Endnotes
[1] Tass, “Death toll in Kazakhstan riots reaches 225, over 4,500 injured,” 15 January 2022, https://tass.com/world/1388627, accessed 30 January 2022
[2] RT, “Government meets protesters’ initial demands in Kazakhstan,” 6 January 2022, https://www.rt.com/russia/545308-kazakhstan-government-meets-protesters-demands/, accessed 30 January 2022
[3] Dilan Pamuk, “Kazakh government resigns amid nationwide protests,” Anadolu Agency, 5 January 2022, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/kazakh-government-resigns-amid-nationwide-protests/2465511, accessed 25 January 2022
[4] BBC, “Kazakhstan unrest was coup attempt, says president,” 10 January 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59900738, accessed 25 January 2022
[5] DW, “Kazakhstan arrests ex-intelligence agency chief for treason,” 8 January 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/kazakhstan-arrests-ex-intelligence-agency-chief-for-treason/a-60366569, accessed 25 January 2022
[6] Merve Aydogan, “Kazakhstan's president elected head of ruling party,” 28 January 2022, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/kazakhstans-president-elected-head-of-ruling-party/2488100, accessed on 30 January 2022
[7] President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, “Republic of Kazakhstan,” 16 January 2022, https://akorda.kz/en/republic_of_kazakhstan/kazakhstan, accessed 30 January 2022
[8] Aibarshyn Akhmetkali, “New Government Comes Into View After Sweeping Political Reshuffle in Kazakhstan,” February 2022, https://astanatimes.com/2022/02/new-government-comes-into-view-after-sweeping-political-reshuffle-in-kazakhstan/, accessed 5 February 2022
[9] Ibid
[10] Qazaq TV, “CSTO peacekeeping forces complete withdrawal from Kazakhstan,” 19 January 2022, https://qazaqtv.com/en/news/society/16748-csto-peacekeeping-forces-complete-withdrawal-from-kazakhstan, accessed 30 January 2022
[11] Ibid
[12] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “QUESTION NO.226 INDIANS IN KAZAKHSTAN,” 3 February 2022, https://www.mea.gov.in/rajya-sabha.htm?dtl/34789/QUESTION_NO226_INDIANS_IN_KAZAKHSTAN, accessed 5 February 2022