Declared as the first security policy document issued by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) government, the National Security Policy (NSP), has been partially released to the public. The paper will try to identify how this policy has been structured, the various themes, finding the nuances or change of focus on Pakistan’s strategic thinking.
It needs to be noted in the beginning that the claim that NSP is Pakistan’s first ever national security policy is factually wrong. The first National Internal Security Policy was launched in 2014 by the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) government. Former Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan initiated this policy, which lapsed in 2018. It was planned to be re-adapted after renaming as the National Internal Security Policy 2019-2023, which was shelved by the PTI government.[i] This policy mostly dealt with terrorism, extremism, cyber crime, and various other security challenges and insecurities. It also laid out the manner in which policy will be formulated on the basis of the teachings of Islam, the vision of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the father of Pakistan, the 1973 Constitution and the Pakistan Vision 2025 document.[ii] The policy did not elaborate on the external dimension, except in the portion that dealt with the regional approach, dealing with countries in the neighbourhood and the importance of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). When the National Action Plan, drawn by the Pakistan Army, was passed by the Pakistan National Assembly in January 2015, after the terrorist attack on Army Public School Peshawar in December 2014, all policies adapted were sidelined along with the National Internal Security Policy.[iii]
NSP was launched on January 14, 2022 promising a “citizen centric approach”. Issued by Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf, who stated himself in an interview that the policy is important as ‘it will act as an umbrella that will tell Pakistan, its citizens and the world, Pakistan’s statement of intent for itself’.[iv] Divided in eight sections the policy has been separated into the following themes: policy formulation, the national security framework, national cohesion, securing Pakistan’s economic future, defence and territorial integrity, its internal security, foreign policy in a changing world and lastly human security.[v]
It has been mentioned that peace with neighbouring countries and economic diplomacy has been kept as the central theme of the National Security Policy. However, there has been no mention of how there will be a shift to ‘geo-economics’ from ‘geo-politics’ or is there any shift in priorities from the traditional and non-traditional threats and challenges. NSP does not clarify how Pakistan can attain a strategic balance with regional and larger state actors or could secure its economic future.
NSP states that Pakistan will avoid aligning with any specific country or bloc, especially in view of the rift and aggressive competition between United States and China. In the portion that deals with the external actors which impacts on Pakistan’s foreign policy making, the policy document has sections dealing with Jammu and Kashmir, Afghanistan, China, India and Iran, and has kept other countries in a section titled ‘rest of the world’, including Middle East and West Asia, United States, United Kingdom and Europe and Central Asia and Russia in a single cluster.[vi]
To elaborate how Pakistan has chosen sides, one should note the recent high level delegation visit to Beijing, which included Prime Minister Khan, to attend the inaugural of the China’s Winter Olympics on February 4, 2022, which was boycotted diplomatically by around 25 countries or not participated by 108 countries[vii], while not making any official visit to the United States under President Biden’s administration, making it evident that it has taken Beijing’s side. The manner in which Pakistan made attempts to forge better ties with Russia which was coordinated by China, also shows the countries Pakistan wants to align with.[viii]
Looking at past strategies, agreements and policies adapted by Pakistani leadership, with regard to Kashmir, India and the Line of Control, it is well known that all policies adopted by the Pakistan will be filled with anti-India rhetoric. NSP, similarly suffers from the dilemma, where it speaks about building close partnerships and maintaining peace with its neighbours, while reiterating India to be a major threat for Pakistan throughout the document. Therefore, with regard to India and Kashmir, there has been no policy change for Pakistan.
Similarly, while the policy has stated that economic security is the core element of national security it has not clarified how the economy would be able to attain any balance between the import-export deficits. While mentioning fiscal management, it has not stated how Pakistan will be able to pay its domestic and external debt. It can be noted that the PTI government in the last three years has taken more than $35 billion foreign loans, taking the total external debt and liabilities to $127 billion as of September 30, 2021.[ix]On the directives of the International Monetary Fund, Pakistan has also steeply devalued the Pakistani Rupee, which has pushed the Pakistani economy to face significant inflation and a rise of tariffs on essential commodities.[x] Pakistani economy is marred by high inflation, low growth, shortages of energy and other essentials, joblessness, and high tariffs on fuel and energy, and NSP does not prescribe any pathway to recover from such economic challenges.[xi]
NSP mentions that preserving Pakistan’s distinct Islamic identity is a key policy objective, while simultaneously highlighting its ethnic, religious and cultural diversity. Neither the policy makers recognise that the preservation of Pakistan’s distinct Islamic identity was one of the principal reasons that led to the breakup of the country in 1971. The ruling elite along with the military establishment fails to identify this major challenge to national security till date, using religion as a political tool, which is pushing Pakistan more towards religious extremism and ethnic strife. Instead, the government has been pursuing a policy of appeasing and encouraging extremist, faith-based groups that undermines any effort to deal with violent extremism, a phenomenon that poses the most serious threat to national security.[xii]
NSP has highlighted the benefits that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor will bring forth for the Pakistani economy in the future, but has not stated any guidelines to mitigate the suspicions of the local population in the provinces with regard to projects under the CPEC that has led to violence and social unrest in some of the provinces.[xiii]
NSP mentions that Pakistan pursues a zero-tolerance policy on terrorist groups while it has been in the United Nations Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) grey list from 2018. A protest was held outside the FATF office in Paris on February 19, 2022 organised by Afghans, Baloch, and Uyghurs, who demanded Pakistan to be placed on the FATF blacklist.[xiv] It can be noted here that FATF’s plenary session began on February 21, 2022 and Pakistan has been kept in the grey list as it has failed to target senior leaders and commanders of UN designated terror groups. NSP remain to be a policy loaded with jargons and phraseology that will not be implemented as the government lacks the political will to take any stringent steps to counter terrorism.[xv]
The role of the military establishment in domestic and strategic policy making in Pakistan is well known and well documented. But the important role of civil-military relationship in decision making has been totally overlooked in the NSP. The role of the Pakistani military establishment along with the intelligence agencies in forging strategic and foreign policy of Pakistan has been overlooked totally, and a flawed portrait of policy formulation has been drawn, blaming the opposition and the neighbouring countries for all the challenges Pakistan faces.[xvi]
One can chalk out various policy documents, but the lack of political will to implement such adapted policies by civilian leadership has been witnessed throughout the history of Pakistan. Throughout the years, there are numerous incidents where actions taken by the government, went against the policies that were adopted. The NSP has also not stated how Pakistan will transform its strategic military-centric environment to a citizen-centric policy making, keeping citizen’s welfare and security as the principal focus. There is also no clarity with regard to the portions of the NSP that have not been made public. While there is a rise of terrorism and ethnic strife in Pakistan, it is highly unlikely that the NSP will have any significant positive outcome in the future.
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*Dr. Dhrubajyoti Bhattacharjee is a research fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs.
Disclaimer: Views are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Abdul Basit, “Pakistan’s National Security Policy Faces an Expectations Gap”, National Interest, February 10, 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pakistan%E2%80%99s-national-security-policy-faces-expectations-gap-200432 accessed on February 21, 2022
[ii] National Internal Security Policy 2018-2023, Ministry of Interior, Government of Pakistan.
[iii] Abdul Basit, “Pakistan’s National Security Policy Faces an Expectations Gap”, National Interest, February 10, 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pakistan%E2%80%99s-national-security-policy-faces-expectations-gap-200432 accessed on February 21, 2022
[iv] Will Pakistan's National Security Policy work? | Inside Story, Al Jazeera, January 15, 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9IwgbKCGsc&t=161s&ab_channel=AlJazeeraEnglish accessed on February 21, 2022
[v] National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026, National Security Division, 2022, Government of Pakistan
[vi]National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026, National Security Division, 2022, Government of Pakistan
[vii] Beijing Olympics 2022 controversy: Why and which nations are boycotting Winter Games?, DNA, February 04, 2022, https://www.dnaindia.com/sports/report-beijing-olympics-2022-controversy-why-and-which-nations-are-boycotting-winter-games-2932188 accessed on February 21, 2022
[viii] Prime Minister Imran Khan during an interview to Russia Today confirmed that China facilitated Prime Minister Khan’s visit to Moscow on February 2022. Pia Krishnankutty, “Did China help Pakistan build bridges to Russia? Imran Khan nods yes & then slams Modi’s India”, The Print, February 23, 2022, https://theprint.in/world/did-china-help-pakistan-build-bridges-to-russia-imran-khan-nods-yes-then-slams-modis-india/843819/ accessed on February 24, 2022
[ix] Javid Husain, “Economic woes”, The News International, January 23, 2022, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/927319-economic-woes accessed on February 21, 2022
[x]Javid Husain, “Economic woes”, The News International, January 23, 2022, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/927319-economic-woes accessed on February 21, 2022
[xi] Sushant Sareen, “Pakistan’s National Security Policy: A yay or a yawn?” Observer Research Foundation, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/pakistans-national-security-policy-a-yay-or-a-yawn/ accessed on February 21, 2022
[xii]MahendraVed, “Pakistan’s National Security Policy: Old thoughts in new packaging”, South Asia Monitor, January 20, 2022, https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/pakistans-national-security-policy-old-thoughts-new-packagingaccessed on February 21, 2022
[xiii]SumitGanguly, What Pakistan’s New National Security Policy Leaves Out, Foreign Policy, February 2, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/02/pakistan-national-security-policy-internal-challenges/ accessed on February 21, 2022
[xiv] “Protest held outside FATF office in Paris calling for blacklisting of Pakistan”, The Print, February 19, 2022, https://theprint.in/world/protest-held-outside-fatf-office-in-paris-calling-for-blacklisting-of-pakistan/838745/ accessed on February 21, 2022
[xv]MahendraVed, “Pakistan’s National Security Policy: Old thoughts in new packaging”, South Asia Monitor, January 20, 2022, https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/pakistans-national-security-policy-old-thoughts-new-packaging accessed on February 21, 2022
[xvi]SumitGanguly, What Pakistan’s New National Security Policy Leaves Out, Foreign Policy, February 2, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/02/pakistan-national-security-policy-internal-challenges/ accessed on February 21, 2022