At the start of the Arab Spring in 2011, hopes were high among the protestors that the overthrow of a decade-old autocratic regime in Tunisia would usher in an era of democracy in the Arab World. While in other states of the Arab World, democracy failed to take root in the past decade, Tunisia undertook several political measures, including holding a Constituent Assembly election that drafted and later enacted the democratic constitution in 2014. Besides, it held successful parliamentary and presidential elections that convinced many analysts that the North African country was on the path of breaking all the notions that democratisation of the Arab World was not possible. However, in the 2019 Presidential election, Kais Saied, a university professor who contested as an independent candidate, won the presidential election with 72.71 percent votes. President Saied launched several measures (decrees) that he claimed would bring the country out of the crisis. The paper aims to assess President Saied’s political measures and their implications on Tunisia.
Arrival of the President Kais Saied and the Present Political Crisis
Kais Saied, during his political campaign, promised to tackle corruption and clean up Tunisian politics. The High Election Commission conducted the presidential election on September 17, 2019. Tunisians elected Kais Saied as President of Tunisia for his clean and apolitical image.[i] Most of the Tunisians were dissatisfied with the performance of the previous governments led by the Ennahada (Islamist) and Nidaa Tounes (Secular) parties. In the past eight years, they failed in several areas for example political repression continued, corruption became more pervasive in the government agencies, poverty was spreading, unemployment was sharply rising and the overall economy was facing a downturn.[ii] These trends fuelled the rise of Saied as the most popular leader in Tunisia. However, the biggest threat to President Saied’s increasing popularity was the 2014 Constitution that laid out a semi-presidential system. According to the constitution, Saied had to share power with Prime Minister (PM) Hichem Mechichi, who traced authority to the Parliament, headed by the Speaker Rached Ghannouchi. The divided system put the executive and legislative branches of the government at loggerheads regarding the distribution of power that threatened the prospects of nascent democratisation in Tunisia.[iii] In addition, Covid-19 pandemic further intensified several problems including the economic decline that fuelled the political crisis.
Against this backdrop, President Kais Saied pursued several measures to reshape the political system in which the Presidency would be most powerful as it used to be before the 2011 Arab Spring.
Suspension of Parliament: On July 25, 2021, Tunisia’s President Kais invoked Article 80 of the 2014 Constitution. Saied dismissed PM Hichem Mechichi, ended his parliamentary immunity, and suspended Parliament for thirty years. The opponents, including Ennahada, considered it a ‘coup’ to bring the country back to authoritarian rule. At the same time, many considered a ‘self-coup’ to correct the wrongdoings of the past ten years in which the governments failed to reform the economy and security.[iv] Saied further entrenched his control over Tunisia’s institutions by sacking Defence Minister Ibrahim Bartaji, Justice Minister Hasna Ben Slimane, army’s chief prosecutor, advisor to the former Prime Minister, and other senior officials.[v]
President Saied also announced the holding of a referendum on a new constitution on July 25, 2022, which is the first anniversary of Saied’s suspension of Parliament. After the initial protest by Ennahada, Saied announced that the new nationwide online referendum on new constitution will be followed by elections for a still-undefined legislative body in December 2022.[vi] However, 124 of the 217 lawmakers who did not accept Saied’s initiatives held an online session of Parliament in which 116 lawmakers associated with Ennahada and other Islamist parties voted against Saied’s decision to suspend Parliament. President Saied termed the lawmakers’ move as a ‘coup attempt’ and said those responsible betrayed the nation and subsequently announced to dissolve the suspended Parliament on March 30, 2022.[vii]
Suspension of the Constitution: The 2014 Constitution enshrined a power-sharing system in which each group could impede the actions of others. The constitution gave absolute power to the Prime Minister, who was the leader of the cabinet, while the President had the power to execute the foreign and defence policy.[viii] The divided executive system pushed President Saied to issue Decree 117 that suspended the constitution so that he could maximise his powers to take decisions.[ix] Further, Saied issued Decree 309 that allowed him to enact legislation in 29 areas including the organisation of judiciary and media freedoms.[x]
Closing down media outlets: The nationwide referendum became the central issue of debate and criticism among the media outlets and journalists. Saied closed down media outlets, including Al Jazeera, Al Arabi TV, and Zitouna TV offices, which were critical of his measures.[xi] Saied dismissed the head of the national television channel Moha Lassaad Dahech and appointed Avatif ed-Dali. The security forces arrested journalist Amer Ayad and his guest, MP Abdellatif al-Alaoui, on Hassad 24 Programme. They were critical of President Saied’s choice of Najla Bouden Romdhane as Tunisia’s first female Prime Minister.[xii] Tunisia’s High Authority for Audio-visual Communication ordered the closure of Nessma TV channel on the charges of financial and administrative corruption, founded by defeated presidential candidate Nabil Karoui who was detained in Algeria.[xiii] In reaction to the media gagging, Tunisia’s Reporters Sans Entraves NGO called for the protection of journalists.[xiv] Journalists also launched a general strike to express their fear of returning to the repressive period that the country experienced before 2011 revolution.[xv]
Dissolution of the High Judicial Council (HJC): The HJC primarily aimed to shield judges from government influence and allowed a significant advance in the consolidation of the rule of law, the separation of powers, and the independence of the justice delivery system in Tunisia.[xvi] However, in videotaped remarks to Tunisia’s Interior Minister and other officials, Saied announced to dissolve the body, accusing it of corruption and political bias. The opponents said that the body dealt with judicial independence and ensured the fair trial rights in Tunisia.[xvii] Earlier, Saied also revoked all financial privileges for council members. He alleged that the council members took billions in bribes and delayed politically sensitive investigations, including into the assassination of left-wing activist Chokri Belaid.[xviii]
The Growing use of Police and Security Forces to Control the Protestors: Saied banned public gatherings of more than three people after thousands of Tunisians protested against his measures to control Parliament, judiciary and security forces.[xix] After declaring himself the supreme commander of the military and the domestic security forces, Saied used the police and security forces to further ban outdoor or indoor gatherings during the Covid-19 wave.[xx] Ennahada and other parties accused Saied of introducing the ban and night curfews to muzzle the protests against his policies.[xxi] To counter the repression, the opposition ignored the ban and launched a nationwide protest to denounce economic hardship and resist police repression on January 15, 2022; in return, the security forces used excessive force to suppress the protestors.[xxii]
Deterioration of the Economy: Saied justified his political measures to tackle the economic crisis and Coronavirus pandemic. Unfortunately, with the kind of economy he inherited, it was challenging for him to reduce unemployment, inflation and corruption. Under Saied’s rule, the Coronavirus pandemic and economic downturn led to one of Tunisia’s deepest recessions since 1956. The high unemployment rate and sovereign debt of more than 100 percent GDP deteriorated the Tunisian economy. In November 2021, Tunisia officially renewed a request for a loan from the IMF, but the emerging political chaos threatened the delivery of the loan. Besides, Tunisia’s economic woes have been intensified by the conflict in wheat-exporting Ukraine, which caused food prices to soar.[xxiii] The war’s disruption of global agricultural trade collided with long-standing Tunisian financial ailments, widening a hole in the government budget, risking a public debt default and creating further hurdles for President Saied to manage the food crisis and its more enormous political implications for his rule.[xxiv]
Most of the indicators showed that under President Saied’s rule, the socio-economic situation worsened, and the unemployment rate increased from 16.4 percent in 2020 to 18.4 percent in 2021.[xxv] In the 2021 Corruption Perception Index, Tunisia scored 44 out of 100. Transparency International also noted that Saied’s announcement to close the anti-corruption agency weakened the existing accountability mechanisms.[xxvi]
Divided Opposition: General Union of Tunisian Workers (UGTT), the largest workers’ union, was hostile to Ennahada because of its Islamist ideology. Therefore, the union did not reject Saied’s measures. Instead, it was willing to partner with Saied in the changing political situation.[xxvii] The union became critical of Saied’s policies only when he excluded trade unions, political parties, and civil society organisations from the national referendum on March 22, 2022. The following month, President Saied and UGTT head Noureddine Taboubi announced that they shared similar views on reforming the country’s political crisis, including:
After that, the UGTT hailed Saied’s dissolution of Parliament, stating that it was a response to an effort aiming to destabilise the country.[xxviii]
Ennahada (Islamist) emerged as the primary political opposition to Saied’s measures. It called for people to unite and defend democracy through peaceful struggle.[xxix] Ennahada, however, was not successful in countering the measures of the Saied because it was grappling with internal dissent after 113 senior party members, including former health minister Abdul Latif al-Makki announced their resignation on September 25, 2021, blaming the leader of the party Rached Ghannouchi and his associates for the failure to form a front to oppose Saied’s measures to bring the country out from the political crisis.[xxx] Nidaa Tounes (Secular) also went through the same fate because it faced infighting due to the leadership crisis after the death of the Beji Caid Essebsi.
In addition, four modernist parties, the Democratic Current, Ettakatol (FDTL), Republican Party, and Afek Tounes, including Labour Party, opposed the President’s decrees. However, the bloc claimed that Ennahada was primarily responsible for the political and economic crisis facing Tunisia.[xxxi]
Tunisian civil society organisations (CSOs), including The I Watch Organization and Citizens against the Coup, denounced Saied’s measures and announced supporting any political process that would overcome the political and constitutional crisis through democratic means.[xxxii]
On April 26, 2022, the opposition formed a new alliance against President Saied’s political measures. The new political opposition will consist of five parties, including Ennhada, the Dignity Coalition and Qalb Tounes, as well as another five civil society groups and independent political figures.[xxxiii] The front did not issue any roadmap to deal with President Saied’s political measures. Also, a pro-Saied protest was countering the opposition to support his measures.
Conclusion
Tunisia put itself on the path of democratisation through a series of multiparty democratic elections in 2011, 2014, and 2019. However, elections are not enough to consolidate democratisation. It required the relentless socio-economic reforms to alleviate structural problems such as the confrontation between Secular and Islamists, the revival of the economy, corruption-free government, reform of the police and security forces, and the improvement of the working-class situation. Also, due to the weak civic culture and lack of independent institution-building, Tunisia failed to democratise itself. Therefore, after the removal of Ben Ali, the sudden opening of the political space for the different ideological organisations facilitated them to control the power rather than looking for compromise, negotiation, and consensus to establish a national narrative for achieving political stability and economic prosperity and social harmony. President Saied’s political measures were symptomatic of the prevailing ‘structural’ problems that Tunisia’s successive governments failed to reform. The lack of social-economic reforms and the rising political tension allowed President Saied to maximise his power through his measures. However, the upcoming national referendum will determine the future course of Tunisian democracy, and it is also too early to conclude that the country has lost the path of democratisation.
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*Dr. Arshad, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] Sarah Yerkes, Tunisia’s Elections, Explained, Carnegie, September 19, 2019, https://bit.ly/3L2qQCQ, April 14, 2022.
[ii] Sharan Grewal, Political outsiders sweep Tunisia’s presidential elections, Brookings, September 16, 2019, accessed https://brook.gs/3K3cQr7, April 16, 2022.
[iii]Matteo Re, (2021). Radicalisation process in Tunisia after the Arab Spring and the Foreign Terrorist Fighters issue, Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, No.17, p.644.
[iv] Nate Grubman, (2022). Transition Arrested, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 33, No.1, p.12
[v]Tunisian presidency fires head of state TV, other top officials, Al-Monitor, July 30, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/3rEOdL5, April 17, 2022.
[vi] Hicham Bou Nassif, (2022). Why the military abandoned democracy, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 33, No.1, p.28.
[vii] Tunisia’s President dissolves parliament, extending power grab, Al-Jazeera, March 30, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/395sSUP, April 16, 2022.
[viii] 2014 Constitution of Tunisia, accessed https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Tunisia_2014.pdf, April 17, 2022, p. 21.
[ix] Zaid Al-Ali, Tunisia’s president just gave himself unprecedented powers. He says he’ll rule by decree, The Washington Post, September 24, 2021, accessed https://wapo.st/3uYSawv, April 18, 2022.
[x] Richard Perez-Pena, President dissolves Tunisia’s parliament, deepening political crisis, The New York Times, March 30, 2022, accessed https://nyti.ms/3MiYJzv, April 20, 2022.
[xi] Tunisia: Human rights must be upheld following suspension of parliament, Amnesty International, July 26, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/37tOMR2, April 17, 2022.
[xii] Ghufrane Mounir, Tunisia: Arrest of journalist prompts concerns about future of press freedom under Saied, Middle East Eye, October 5, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/3MgsDVk, April 16, 2022.
[xiii] Tunisia shuts television channel of ex-presidential candidate, English Al-Arabiya, October 27, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/3JZGzBw, April 16, 2022.
[xiv] Yamina Salmi, Tunisian NGO calls for protection of journalists, Anadolu Agency, January 11, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3EsS03x, April 17, 2022.
[xv] After the Boycott and attack, Kais Saied attempts to control the media, Al-Estiklal Newspaper, April 9, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/36sZtTu, April 17, 2022.
[xvi] Yasmine Darwish, Tunisian President orders shutdown of the High Judicial Council, Geneva International Centre for Justice, February 16, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3uU1vFI, April 17, 2022.
[xvii] Tunisia: President’s moves to shut down High Judicial Council pose grave threat to human rights, Amnesty International, February 8, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3KULyVg, April 18, 2022.
[xviii] Tunisia’s president dissolves top judicial watchdog, Al-Jazeera, February 6, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3K1NhH0, April 18, 2022.
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[xx] Kais Saied declared himself commander in chief for the army and security forces. Al-Estiklal Newspaper, May 22, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/3KMICt5, April 29, 2022.
[xxi] Violence erupts, police use water cannon on Tunisian protestors, Arab News, January 14, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3Eug99E, April 18, 2022.
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[xxiii] Deutsche Welle, Tunisia: President Kais Saied announces dissolution of parliament, Frontline, March 31, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3EyKILI, April 17, 2022.
[xxiv] David J. Lynch, Tunisia among countries seeing major economic consequences from war in Ukraine, The Washington Post, April 14, 2022, accessed https://wapo.st/3rCR33q, April 18, 2022.
[xxv] Unemployment rate in Tunisia from 1st quarter 2019 to 3rd quarter 2021, Statista, accessed https://bit.ly/3MkkY8a, April 17, 2022.
[xxvi] CPI 2021 for Middle East and North Africa: Systemic corruption endangers democracy and human rights, Transparency International, January 25, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3EyKunQ, April 17, 2022.
[xxvii] Tunisia’s UGTT criticises President’s Road map out of crisis, Al-Jazeera, January 5, 2011, accessed https://bit.ly/380IpER, April 19, 2022.
[xxviii] Tunisia president, general labour union share reformation views, Middle East Monitor, April 2, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/3OlZAkV, April 18, 2022
[xxix] Hundreds of Tunisians protest President Saied’s ‘power grab’, Al-Jazeera, September 26, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/3Oocn6r, April 18, 2022.
[xxx] Alvaro Escalonilla, 113 members of Tunisia’s Islamist Ennhada formation resign en masse, Atalayar, September 25, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/3JZzfWz, April 18, 2022.
[xxxi] Tunisian parties announce coalition to counter President Saied, Al-Jazeera, September 28, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/38X5vMZ, April 18, 2022.
[xxxii] Joint Statement: Tunisia: Unprecedented confiscation of power by the Presidency, Human Rights Watch, September 27, 2021, accessed https://bit.ly/3Esqymm, April 19, 2022.
[xxxiii] Tunisia: Opposition forms new alliance against President Kais Saied, Middle East Eye, April 26, 2022, accessed https://bit.ly/38QMkVb, April 30, 2022.