Sri Lanka is trying to manage the political and economic crisis that has engulfed the nation in recent months. The former Prime Minister (PM) of Sri Lanka Ranil Wickramasinghe has been appointed as the PM by the President of Sri Lanka on 13 May 22, after the resignation of PM Mahinda Rajapaksa following the violence inflicted on peaceful protesters on 9th May 2022. The President of Sri Lanka in his address to the nation on 11 May 2022 condemned the violence which led to killing of a ruling party Parliamentarian, hospitalisation of nearly 300 people, and looting and arson. He also promised, in his address to the nation to appoint a new PM and bring constitutional reforms to empower the Parliament.[1] However, to restore political stability, the President and the new PM will have to navigate number of political and economic challenges.
The appointment of Ranil Wickramasinghe as PM received a mixed response. This is the sixth time that Ranil Wickramasinghe has been appointed as the PM of Sri Lanka. In his nearly four decades of political career, as the leader of the United National Party (UNP) he served as the PM of Sri Lanka on previous five occasions.[2] However, the appointment of PM without consulting opposition parties as promised by the President was not taken well by the opposition. The Samagi Jana Balwegaya (SJB) led by Sajith Premadasa refused to join the government and challenged the new PM to show majority in the Parliament.[3] Not just the SJB, opposition parties such as Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), have decided not to take up any ministerial positions in the new government headed by Ranil Wickramasinghe. Before requesting Ranil Wickramasinghe to take up the PM position, President at first approached the SJB leader as the leader of the largest opposition party, to take up the PM position, but failed to get a positive response. The SJB leader in a letter to the President said he is willing to become the PM only after his party’s well known conditions are met; one is the resignation of President and the other is constitutional reforms.[4] These pre-conditions were not acceptable to the President of Sri Lanka. The appointment of Ranil Wickramasinghe did not result in an interim government, comprising all political parties as hoped by the President. Nearly twenty new ministers were sworn mostly from the ruling SLPP by 23 May 22. The PM has been appointed as Finance Minister and Minister of Economic Stability and National Polices on 25 May 2022. Apart from the formation of an interim government acceptable to all parties, a bigger challenge before the new PM and the President is to address the demands of the opposition and civil society of Sri Lanka to end the political impasse.
The opposition has been demanding the resignation of the President and repeal of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka that granted absolute powers to the Executive Presidency. Other than the opposition, the Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL) and protesters at the Galle Face Green, a site of public protest since April this year, have come out with a set of proposals to overcome the present national crisis. Broadly, the BASL proposals, call for the abolition of executive presidency and repeal of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka; formation of a government of national unity headed by a consensus Prime Minister; 15 member Cabinet of Ministers and another 15 member Advisory Council consisting of a political Professional/Trade/Civil Society organisations and the adoption of a Common Minimum Programme. [5] The CMP according to the BASL should focus on issues such as the IMF programme of debt restructuring, addressing the immediate needs of people and adoption of foreign policy which can address national interests.[6] The proposed interim government according to the BASL proposal will function for 18 months and will cease to exist once the general elections are conducted at the end of 18 months. Similar demands have also been put forward by the protesters, which emphasised the need for constitutional amendment to curb Presidential powers and the resignation of the President. Meanwhile, efforts are being made by the opposition party the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and parties such as the Frontline Socialist Party to present set of solutions to the present national crisis. These include, a new constitution approved by the people by a referendum and an audit commission that can look at the assets of all political leaders and the assets stolen from public funds.[7]
On 23 May 2022, the PM has submitted a draft of the 21st Amendment to the Cabinet and the draft is currently under discussion with all the parliamentary party leaders. The new Amendment proposes to annul the 20th Amendment that provided sweeping powers to the President by strengthening Parliament and by handing over important powers pertaining to governance and Cabinet Ministers to the PM. The SJB’s Private Member’s Bill on the 21 A Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka, on the other hand proposed “establishment of Constitutional Council and independent commissions including Audit and Procurement Commissions, constitutional recognition of the National Security Council and establishment of a State Council to obtain advice of experts/public representations on matters of public importance”.[8] The TNA, while responding to the draft presented by the PM said that the there is no sincerity on the part of government to bring a real change in governance because, the new Amendment will not abolish the Executive Presidency as demanded by the people, but only proposed, dilution of powers by constituting independent commissions.[9] Whether these concerns and demands will be addressed by the government to bring political stability is not clear yet.
These political developments also reflect the present state of politics in Sri Lanka where there seems to be a clear divide among political parties, regarding the direction the country should take amidst the crisis. The popular demand by the public for a change of government is carefully navigated by the present government by using its current political strength in the Parliament. Amidst the crisis, the government seems to have managed its strength in the Parliament by selecting the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) MP Ajith Rajapakse as Deputy Speaker of Parliament. This has proved that the SLPP is trying to hold on to power amidst the crisis. In another show of strength by the SLPP, on 17 May 22, a motion submitted by the TNA Parliamentarian Sumanthiran to censure the President of Sri Lanka, was suspended as the motion could not secure the votes required in the Parliament. The suspension of motion that tried to censure the President for the present political and economic crisis, effectively paved the way for the continuation of the President of Sri Lanka. The President has also tried to appeal to the public by emphasizing the importance of safeguarding national security from vested foreign groups and individuals trying to undermine the national security by using the crisis as a pretext. The statement given by the President of Sri Lanka to mark the 13th Anniversary of victory over the LTTE by the Sri Lankan army on 18 May 2022, spoke of sacrifices made by the security forces to safeguard the sovereignty of the country and asked the people to recall history.[10] The resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa and other members of the Rajapaksa family holding important public positions may have diverted the attention away from one family rule for the time being, but it may not help the government led by the President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to restore confidence of the people on the government unless the basic needs of public are met.
The government seems to have managed the political crisis albeit temporarily, but the real challenge is the revival of the economy. After assuming power as the PM of the country, Ranil Wickramasinghe in series of tweets highlighted grim facts about the current economic situation in Sri Lanka. According to the information given by the PM, Sri Lanka at present has near Zero foreign reserves and it needs $ 75 million to purchase fuel. Power outage will increase for 15 hours daily and Sri Lanka needs $ 20 million to provide gas to consumers.[11] Sri Lanka also needs $ 7 billion for the next two years to stabilise the economy. To manage the economy, the PM slashed PM’s office expenses by 50%.[12] In a series of tweets, the PM proposed various steps to overcome the present crisis by involving all sections of society. One is setting up of the National Council which will include the Speaker, PM, opposition leader and the leaders of major parties. The Council will have the power to summon the Cabinet and the Chairmen of Committees and will be accountable to Parliament. [13] He also proposed a change in the structure of Parliament and a law that can strengthen the monetary powers of Parliament. The government is also working to form two new Committees on Monetary Affairs, ten Oversight Committees and fifteen Youth Committees to manage the economy[14]. The PM has also roped in the Speaker of Maldives Mohammed Nasheed as coordinator for securing foreign aid to Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka, at present, is banking on the help extended by bilateral partners and multilateral institutions. So far, it has received $ 160 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and also expecting another $160 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB).[15]Bangladesh extended the $200 million currency swap loan for another year to help Sri Lanka to address immediate economic needs. China responded cautiously to the crisis and has provided an emergency grant of $76 million to Sri Lanka. Indonesia has provided $1.6 million worth medical aid to Sri Lanka and Japan provided $1.5 million for essential medicines through UNICEF. India has been consistently helping Sri Lanka to deal with the crisis and so far provided more than $ 3.5 billion assistance to overcome the crisis.[16] The Government of Sri Lanka hired Lazard and Clifford Chance as financial and legal advisers to talk with international creditors. But, it might take a year or more for Sri Lanka to get the economy back on track and renew the revenue generating sectors such as tourism and exports. By changing the PM, the government’s attempt is to send a signal to multilateral financial institutions and creditors that political stability will be restored and it is working on the programme of debt restructuring. Sri Lanka sought nearly $4 billion from IMF and held talks with the group in April this year. The G7 has also decided to support debt relief efforts for Sri Lanka.
By looking at the political developments, Sri Lanka witnessed in recent weeks one can only hope that the new PM, given his four decades of political experience will try to bring opposition parties together to restore political and economic stability. By informing people about the grim economic situation, Ranil Wickramasinghe conveyed that the days ahead are tough for Sri Lanka and only through collective efforts the crisis can be addressed. The government is aiming to get $5 billion this year for repayments and another $1 billion to boost foreign reserves. However, to regain public confidence, the government will have to work on required constitutional reforms, transfer powers of Executive Presidency to the Parliament, ensure basic facilities to the public and uphold the right to peaceful protests. Political developments which took place to manage the political crisis in the last few weeks indicate that it is not easy to remove the President as demanded by the opposition through constitutional means.
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* Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
End Notes
[1]Colombo Gazette, “President to appoint new PM this week”, 11 May 2022, https://colombogazette.com/2022/05/11/president-to-appoint-new-pm-this-week. Accessed on May 13, 2022.
[2]According to Parliament of Sri Lanka, Ranil Wickramasinghe served as Prime Minister of Sri Lanka from7 May 1993-19 August 1994, 9 Dec 2001 to 2 April 2004, 9 June 2015 to 21 August 2015, 24 August 2015 to 26 October 2018, 16 December 2018 to 21 November 2019.
[3]Daily Mirror, “SJB won’t accept positions in new Cabinet: Maddumabandara”, 13 May 2022, https://www.dailymirror.lk/latest_news/SJB-wont-accept-positions-in-new-Cabinet-Maddumabandara/342-236959. Accessed on May 15, 2022.
[4]Daily Mirror, “Will take up PM post only on conditions laid by me - Sajith writes to GR”, 13 May 2022, https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking_news/Will-take-up-PM-post-only-on-conditions-laid-by-me-Sajith-writes-to-GR/108-236976.Accessed on May 14, 2022.
[5]The Bar Association of Sri Lanka, “Media Release (03rd May 2022) : Proposals to Restore Political & Economic Stability in the Country Handed Over to the MahanayakeTheros of the Malwatte and Asgiriya Chapters”,https://basl.lk/media-release-03rd-may-2022-proposals-to-restore-political-economic-stability-in-the-country-handed-over-to-the-mahanayake-theros-of-the-malwatte-and-asgiriya-chapters.Accessed on May 13, 2022.
[6]DaiyFT, “Bar Association of Sri Lanka unveils proposals to restore political and economic stability”, 25 April 2022,https://www.ft.lk/opinion/Bar-Association-of-Sri-Lanka-unveils-proposals-to-restore-political-and-economic-stability/14-733860.Accessed on May 15, 2022.
[7]The Island, “TNA-FSP talks on formulating joint strategy successful”, 19 May 2022, https://island.lk/tna-fsp-talks-on-formulating-joint-strategy-successful/.Accessed on May 19, 2022.
[8] The Island, “SJB asks govt. to accept its draft 21st Amendment”, 3 June 2022, https://island.lk/sjb-asks-govt-to-accept-its-draft-21st-amendment/. Accessed on June 6, 2022.
[9] Marianne David, “19A is a failure, 21A is worse: TNA MP M.A. Sumanthiran”, 29 May 2022, http://www.themorning.lk/19a-is-a-failure-21a-is-worse-tna-mp-m-a-sumanthiran/. Accessed on June 5, 2022.
[10]The Island, “President’s war victory message: Warning issued on bid to destabilise country amidst economic and political turmoil”, 19 May 2022, https://island.lk/presidents-war-victory-message-warning-issued-on-bid-to-destabilise-country-amidst-economic-and-political-turmoil/.Accessed on May 19, 2022.
[11]Ranil Wickramasinghe, https://twitter.com/RW_UNP/status/1526206615242043393.Accessed on May 18, 2022.
[12]Ranil Wickramasinghe , https://twitter.com/RW_UNP. Accessed on May 19 2022.
[13] Ranil Wickramasinghe, 29 May 2022, ttps://twitter.com/RW_UNP. Accessed on May 30, 2022.
[14] Ranil Wickramasinghe, 29 May 2022, ttps://twitter.com/RW_UNP. Accessed on May 30, 2022.
[15]The Island, “PM informs Parliament USD 160 mn received from World Bank”, 19 May 2022, https://island.lk/pm-informs-Parliament-usd-160-mn-received-from-world-bank. Accessed on May 19, 2022.
[16] High Commission of India, Colombo, “Press Release - Handing over of humanitarian assistance worth more than SLR 2 billion”, 23 May 2022, https://hcicolombo.gov.in/press?id=