Indian Council of World Affairs

SG Dr. Kao: Your Excellency, Ambassador Vijay Thakur Singh, Director General of Indian Council of World Affairs; Excellency, Jayant Khobragade, Ambassador of the Republic of India to ASEAN; Excellencies, Distinguished Ambassadors, Ladies, Gentlemen and Scholars. 

I would like to start by expressing my appreciation to the Indian Council of World Affairs, for the invitation to deliver a Lecture on the topic of the “ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the Evolving Regional Architecture.”   

I also want to put on record my appreciation, to the Ministry of External Affairs for the invitation to visit India. This is my first working visit in 2024, and I have chosen India as the first country to visit. And I want to also extend my appreciation to Ambassador Jayant for all the arrangements. 

Today, I will highlight some of the key issues that have defined our relations, cooperation and the partnership between ASEAN and India. As you know, this year marks 32 years of our relations, a relationship that is not only defined by 32 years of cooperation but centuries of cooperation and by geography. Allow me to briefly recall the establishment of ASEAN, and then we focus on the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). 

When ASEAN was founded in 1967, the world was fraught with conflicts: the Cold War, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War, among others. There was so much uncertainty in the region with almost half of the ASEAN Member States involved embroiled in conflict at that time. 

But when the leaders decided to establish ASEAN, the goal was basically to promote peace by focusing on prosperity -- the economic agenda. ASEAN was founded through the Bangkok Declaration in 1967. Over the years, we have seen the emergence of key instruments in ASEAN such as the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN), and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC). Then later, we had the Bali Concord I, Bali Concord II and the ASEAN Charter in 2007, which gave ASEAN legal personality. 

Meanwhile, ASEAN expanded, with Brunei back in 1984, which is its first enlargement. Then came the second enlargement in 1995 with Vietnam being admitted and the third enlargement came through the inclusion of Laos and Myanmar in 1997. The fourth enlargement took place when Cambodia became a member in 1999. In 2022, the ASEAN Leaders decided to expand the membership by approving in principle Timor-Leste’s inclusion as the 11^th member. Currently, Timor-Leste has an observer status. 

Meanwhile too, we have also seen the increasing number of dialogue partners, of which many are important dialogue partners such the case of Australia and Japan which became ASEAN’s dialogue partners in 1974. This year (2024), we celebrate the 50^th anniversary of ASEAN’s dialogue relations with Japan. Next month (March 2024), we will celebrate the 50^th anniversary of ASEAN’s dialogue relations with Australia. 

What should not be forgotten is the establishment of new mechanisms, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)-Plus. All these new mechanisms are very important. 

Today, ASEAN’s key instrument, the TAC has seen an increasing number of states acceding to it. Signed in 1976, the TAC today has a total of 54 high contracting parties, 10 ASEAN Member States, and 44 non-ASEAN. If Timor-Leste is counted as part of ASEAN, then 43 of the High-Contracting Parties to the TAC are outside Southeast Asia. Now we have also new countries that will be added on, including Algeria, Finland, Mexico, Luxembourg, and Spain. 

Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen

ASEAN has always been focused on the culture of dialogue and consultations, as well as the strategy of external engagement, which has always been ASEAN’s key strategy. There are several modalities: the ASEAN Plus One Arrangement, the ASEAN Plus Three, the ARF which has 27 participating states, the ADMM-Plus, and the East Asia Summit, which is a leaders-led mechanism. 

Today, we have a total of 11 dialogue partners, eight sectoral dialogue partners, and six development partners that are actively engaging ASEAN. And at the same time, we also have a total of 95 countries that have accredited ambassadors to ASEAN. And the number is growing. 

The way we work in ASEAN is through several levels of engagement. For example, with India, we are working through bilateral cooperation, meaning between India and each ASEAN Member State. We also work through regional cooperation arrangements and other sub-regional arrangements. 

Beyond the bilateral ASEAN-India modality, we work with India through other mechanisms where India is a key player and a key participant, like the ARF, ADMM-Plus, and the East Asia Summit. And of course, we collaborate at the international level as well.

All these levels of cooperation are guided by various frameworks and principles. We have been working together because we have shared interests. The interests are in the political-security cooperation, economic cooperation, and socio-cultural cooperation.

In the economic domain, for example, we have a bilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) with India. The volume of trade is quite significant, and we can still do a lot more. I think our Economic Ministers will be discussing with their Indian counterpart the review of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA), which is our bilateral FTA. We must make sure that the bilateral FTA remains relevant to the business community, particularly our businesses and companies. This is very important for both sides.

I also want to highlight how the people of ASEAN look at ASEAN itself, because sometimes this is something that people would ask, ‘How is ASEAN being viewed by its own citizens?’ And that's very important in terms of raising the profile of ASEAN's identity. Based on the poll on ASEAN awareness that was conducted in 2018, 94% of the public that have been surveyed identified themselves as ASEAN citizens. So that's very high and two-fifths of citizens strongly affiliate themselves with ASEAN. These are the statistics in terms of how the people in ASEAN look at ASEAN as a whole.

There is also a high proportion of the general population (about 83%) that see themselves benefiting from being citizens of ASEAN. And you might ask, what are the benefits of being ASEAN citizens?

First, in ASEAN, among the 10 countries, we do not need visa. Six hundred seventy-one million people do not need visa to travel in the 10 countries. You can just book your flight, get on the plane, and go where you want to go within the ASEAN zone. You can see also the benefits of increasing connectivity. Before, if you want to travel, say, from Laos to Manila, you had to transit somewhere overnight, either in Bangkok, Singapore, or Kuala Lumpur. But today, there's no need to transit at all.

As ASEAN has increasingly become an integrated market, we are able to attract foreign direct investments (FDI). We look at the numbers back in 2023, just right after COVID, in terms of FDI, and we see that ASEAN came in second place, only after the United States as the destination for FDI inflows. The figures show that ASEAN received almost double the FDI it received before the COVID-19 Pandemic. Investments mean jobs and increase in exports.

In terms of trade, India ranks 8^th, as ASEAN’s top trading partner. The other top trading partners include the EU, which ranks 3^rd. There is also China, which I think is a top trading partner in the past 14 consecutive years. The U.S., Japan, Korea, Australia are all key trading partners of ASEAN.

It is evident that things are moving rapidly for ASEAN but there are also challenges that we face. The challenges, of course, started back in 1997, with the Asian financial crisis. A number of ASEAN Member States were hit very hard by the impact of the financial crisis that led to the creation of the Chiang Mai Initiative, and then later on it was upgraded in 2009 to the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation and then the ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office or AMRO was set up.

Another great challenge is terrorism and violent extremism, which led to the establishment of the ASEAN Convention on Counterterrorism. We also have the ASEAN Declaration on Joint Action to Counterterrorism and the ASEAN Comprehensive Plan of Action on Counterterrorism. Even today, we do not take it for granted when it comes to terrorism.

Another challenge, of course, was the COVID-19 Pandemic. And even today, the pandemic remains a challenge, particularly with the possibility of another pandemic. This is why the ASEAN Leaders decided to set up the ASEAN Center for Public Health Emergencies and Emerging Diseases (ACPHEED), which is to be based in three ASEAN Member States namely Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, for the three ASEAN Member States to have a shared responsibility on behalf of all ASEAN Member States.

Another challenge is climate change which is something we have to focus on because of its impact. The region is prone to disasters, particularly natural disasters.

Of course, one of our greatest challenges is the rising tension among the major powers. We talk about the geopolitical, geo-economic competition. It is there. It has been there. It is something that we are looking at very closely in ASEAN. You know very well that this is not only about the competition or rivalry, but it is something for the region to really manage it. And that is why, for ASEAN, we have worked very hard to promote confidence building. We must enhance strategic trust and focus on conflict prevention.

All the consultations and dialogues and diplomacy that we have been promoting regularly, on an annual basis, is to ensure that the region remains peaceful, stable, and secure, so that we would be able to promote prosperity. And we would be able to use more of our resources and efforts to focus on building the prosperity agenda for our people.

At one point, we thought that wars and conflicts, have become obsolete, but then what happened in Ukraine and now in the Middle East indicate otherwise. And we cannot pretend that all these wars and conflict have no impact on our region. I think that would be naivete. We certainly cannot escape the impact. I also want to underscore that conflicts are not only happening outside the Indo-Pacific region. We also must manage some of the tensions that have been built up in the region itself. And that is why back in 2019, ASEAN came up with the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).

ASEAN's strategy is to manage and to take the lead on the AOIP, and we have already defined the four priority areas of cooperation that we would like other partners to come and work with us namely, maritime cooperation, connectivity, Sustainable Development Goals and economic, and other areas of cooperation. These are the areas we would like to work with India as well.

Before I focus on the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, let me share that we are working on something that we have not done before, which is on the   crafting a 20-year vision -- the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. In the past over 50 years, ASEAN never had such a long-term vision, a 20-year vision, but now we are working on a 20-year vision that would start from 2026 until 2045. The draft has been completed, our leaders have taken note of it, and now the High-Level Task Force on ASEAN Community’s Post-2025 Vision (HLTF-ACV), and relevant bodies from the three pillars and ASEAN Connectivity are working on crafting the strategic plans that would implement this 20-year vision.

What we have done in crafting the Vision is to look at megatrends, what we perceive as the challenges facing our region and the world in the next 20 years. Based on this, we came up with the vision, the community vision, and then the four strategic plans on how we will implement the 20-year vision.

Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen

Let me now focus on the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). ASEAN and India have been working together in four phases. Starting in 1992, as the Ambassador mentioned, India was a Sectoral Dialogue Partner of ASEAN, and then in 1995, the partnership was elevated to the full Dialogue Partnership. In 2012, that partnership was elevated to Strategic Partnership, and then in 2022, 10 years later, it was upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP).

What is CSP? Is it just about additional activities; is it just something we put in a statement?

No. CSP means that we have built a strong foundational relationship based on trust. Trust is the key. ASEAN and India are defined by geography. We have land and maritime borders. We are neighbours. We are also, as I just mentioned earlier, defined by centuries of relationship. We are no strangers to each other. We have been working together. There is close relationship between our peoples, whether through languages, cultures or religions. What we have between 1992, and this year are the more formal relationship that has defined what we have today. This means we work together in many areas including in the political security sphere. And in 2022, the ASEAN Defence Ministers and the Indian Defence Minister had an informal dialogue for the very first time.

Of course, India has been involved significantly in the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)-Plus Expert Working Groups. India has been very active. India has been active also in the East Asia Summit from the very beginning. This is a leaders-led forum. Of course, also through the ASEAN Plus One mechanism. We have many mechanisms in place. At the Summit levels, at the Ministerial levels, at the Senior Official levels, at the technical working group levels, cutting across the different sectors, ranging from the digital sector to agriculture, to tourism, among others.

This means that we work together through the various areas of cooperation. In ASEAN, we have the three pillars of the ASEAN community and under these three pillars, we have many sectors, where we work together constantly. There have been a lot of meetings, and those meetings are not for the sake of having meetings. In fact, there are a lot of negotiations that transpire during those meetings. Those negotiations lay the foundation of long-term relationship.

To ensure the smooth relations and cooperation between the two sides, the government of India has set up a mission to ASEAN with a full-fledged ambassador, and his team is working closely not only with the ASEAN Secretariat but also with the ASEAN Member States. ASEAN works with all of its partners, including India. It has programs, projects, and activities that define cooperation, which go beyond words and statements and declarations. It means that we have concrete activities that benefit both sides. For example, we hope to increase the current volume of trade because we have the mechanisms in place to do so.

We also have many other areas of cooperation with India, on people-to-people ties, particularly exchange programs, exchange of scholars, exchange of media personalities. All these are concrete activities that go beyond statements.

We have been doing a lot of cooperation together indeed, as encapsulated in the plan of action that we have for 2021-2025, and of course with the annex to this plan of action which contains activities to substantiate ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. What we need is to further expand the cooperation to include the 12 areas as proposed by Excellency Prime Minister of India in September last year.

We have deepened our cooperation, to make sure that the areas of cooperation become more productive, more beneficial for both sides. And I think, for example, one area that we are now working on very closely is maritime cooperation. I think we have done some work there together already, because India is a maritime nation in the same way that ASEAN is a maritime region. The ASEAN community is a maritime space. Maritime cooperation is an area that we have been working together.

There is also the tourism sector. We are looking at how we can expand cooperation in this area. We have 671 million people. Our tourists right now go to Japan, China, Korea, for example. Why not come to India? I think this is an area that we should expand. Similarly, we would welcome tourists from India to ASEAN. There is an increasing air connectivity between the two sides, more flights, more passengers on both sides. I think, this is all good. I think this is something that we are looking forward to expanding between ASEAN and India under the CSP.

We look forward to working with India in the areas that are the new drivers of ASEAN economy -- the green, blue, circular, and digital economy. Last year, ASEAN launched the negotiations for the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). If we can maximise DEFA, once negotiated, we are looking at increasing the digital economy to US$2 trillion by 2030. We believe that India has a lot of expertise, and also best practices in this area where we can collaborate and work together. I think this is an area, for example, where we can further expand our cooperation under the CSP.

In terms of food security, because of climate change now, food security is necessary for both sides. Although we export a lot of agricultural products, we, in ASEAN, also import. For example, one of the ASEAN Member States, like Malaysia, imports a lot of chicken from China, and that is a fact. So why not work together, look at existing areas of cooperation and determine where we can do more together. It is all about mutual benefit. It should be working both ways. Agriculture and food security are, indeed, areas that we can work together.

Also in science, technology, and innovation, and in the energy sector. The energy sector is now one of the top priorities in ASEAN, particularly as we move to focus on clean, green and renewable energy. We are now looking at investing in solar energy, wind energy, and in hydro energy, all of these because we have commitments under COP28, and that is where ASEAN will continue to move ahead.

Based on the study by the ASEAN Centre for Energy, our energy needs will continue to grow not only because of economic growth but also because of population growth.  And if we were to power the growing economy, we also need more energy for our growing population, we will have to invest more in the energy sector. So again, this is another area we can, therefore, work together as well.

Fintech is another area we should work together. This sector, along with all the areas, we should look and identify under the CSP. It should be mutual, how we should open the doors to the private sector, the business community to take advantage of the business opportunities on both sides.

Let me move on to the socio-cultural cooperation. At the end of the day, we must bring our cooperation, relations and partnership down to our people. Have the people benefitted from our CSP? Through various exchange programs involving the youth, students, media, artists, among others, I think we have to do more in this area. I think this is something that we should be actively promoting. We will work closely, of course, with the Mission of India to ASEAN. We will work closely with the different line Ministries from both sides.

Now, of course, there are certain sectors that we do not have mechanism in place yet, and that is something we would like to see them forthcoming. How can we expand? This is something that our member states will have to look at -- what more can be done to expand. So again, I think that the CSP has a lot of room to grow and expand. We have new potential areas of cooperation, and we also have existing areas of cooperation which we should deepen and take advantage.

Let us develop more trade together. I am sure at the moment we can move things up. Our economic ministers and your economic minister will have to work together to see how we can increase trade on both sides, to take advantage of the opportunities that we now have.

In terms of market size, there is a lot of potential. India has 1.4 billion people. ASEAN is growing and soon to be 700 million, which is almost half of India’s population. Combining the population of ASEAN and India together, we have over 2 billion. I think there is enormous potential, enormous opportunities there.

Another important area that we should be working together more closely is peace and security. We cannot take peace for granted, given what is happening in the world today. And that is why we are elated that soon, we will officially inaugurate the Statue of Gandhi at the ASEAN Headquarters, because this statue symbolises non-violence and peace, which we need in the world today. ASEAN is a strong proponent of peace and non-violence. This is one thing that I think, we should be actively promoting between ASEAN and India in the world today. That is what we need. We need more leadership. We need peace leadership. For the younger generations, we need to focus on peace, so that we have more resources investing in our people rather than investing in arms build-up.  And why do I say this? Because with all the resources that we have, we should focus on development, technology, and building the economy as well as building prosperity for our people.

We should also work to reduce tensions in the region and in the wider region. Because with increasing trust, strategic trust, we can do more together. For us in ASEAN, we are a strong proponent of an open, rule-based trading system. We want to see more trade in the world. ASEAN and India should be actively promoting this.

This morning, I had an excellent discussion with India’s Minister of External Affairs. We like to see India at some point come on board to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). We believe that this is in the interest for all of us.

The world today will focus more on the interests of the people in this region. What we need is to have greater voices in global and international affairs. That is why one of the things ASEAN is focusing on now is to make sure that we have our voices, not just within the region, but also in the global community.

We would like to see that India continues to support ASEAN Centrality, ASEAN Community-building, and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. Of course, we do it through engagement, dialogue, diplomacy, and cooperation. And I think there is a lot of shared interest between the two sides. We should spend more energy working together.

Let me end by stressing that trust is really the key in our partnership. With trust, our long-term future can be assured. There is a lot of opportunities between ASEAN and India, to work together in all areas of cooperation. And of course, with the strong CSP, ASEAN and India can play an active role.

Ambassador Vijay Thakur Singh moderated the discussion that followed.

Question No. 1: Thank you, sir, for a very insightful lecture. You stressed cooperation and trust amongst partners. Given the geopolitical climate right now and the economic uncertainties, what kind of partnerships is ASEAN looking in the broader Indo-Pacific region? Thank you so much.

Question No. 2: Thank you, sir, for your lecture. Sir, what is the timeline you see for Timor-Leste to join the ASEAN? Thank you.

Question No. 3: Hello, sir. Sir, my question is on maritime security and maritime cooperation. Sir, as we all know, China's assertive actions in the South China Sea and the Belt and Road Initiative of China have some way influenced Asian countries to regional security. My question is being the Secretary-General of ASEAN, what are your commitments for having an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific? At the same time, being a student of a South Asian University, Sir, I wanted to be informed about the students' exchange program between the ASEAN and India. Thank you, sir.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Excellency, the floor is yours to answer the three questions.

SG Dr. Kao: Thank you very much for those questions. Well, first, amidst the geopolitical environment, what is critical is trust, strategic trust. What does ASEAN look for in a partnership? The readiness and willingness to work with ASEAN in the ASEAN Outlook in the Indo-Pacific. We have seen the U.S., China, and other partners, including India, expressing support for the AOIP. The way we work is based on inclusivity, openness, and transparency. That's how ASEAN engagement has always been.

So, what we look for in a partnership is the readiness to work together in the four priority areas of cooperation, which will bring about mutual benefits. We must move away from activities that create or raise more tensions. Instead, we should collaborate on various projects that will bring about mutual understanding and also on building better relations.

That is the context where ASEAN came up with the AOIP in 2019 and last year, in 2023, during Indonesia’s ASEAN Chairmanship, ASEAN put up various concrete activities, including hosting the first ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum.

You have seen that the EU has its own EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Meeting. ASEAN had the first forum last year. We know what is best for our region. I think it is important particularly for the countries in the region to look at what are the priorities for our countries in the region. Partnerships should promote shared interests and based on inclusiveness, transparency, and broader interests.

On Timor-Leste, we are working at three levels with Timor-Leste. One is on familiarisation. Based on the roadmap, we have invited Timor-Leste to participate in all ASEAN meetings, from the Leaders’ Summit down to working groups. And we wanted to make sure that Timor-Leste understands the working methodology in ASEAN. And I think, they have been participating in ASEAN meetings very actively since last year. Timor-Leste has also already set up its own Mission to ASEAN with a full-fledged Ambassador and the team in Jakarta.

The second level is about capacity building. Based on what we heard from Timor-Leste, they expected to train about 2,000 officials across the different line Ministries. ASEAN is not about just the work of the Foreign Ministry officials. They must involve all the line Ministries and agencies because the three pillars of the ASEAN Community cut across all the different sectors. And I think that is why it is important to have capacity building of all the officials.

The third level pertains to the list of documents and treaties, agreements that need to be ratified and acceded to by Timor-Leste, before becoming a full member of ASEAN. There is a political commitment by Timor-Leste to accelerate their membership; they wanted to come in as early as possible. But on the technical level, I think there is still a gap.  We must continue to work together. Ideally, they are looking at joining ASEAN maybe by 2025. But again, at the end of the day, this will rest entirely with the ASEAN Member States.

On China, you say, its actions in the South China Sea and the Belt Road Initiative have influenced ASEAN countries. Let me put it this way.  ASEAN's engagement with China has been there for some time. We worked with China initially to negotiate the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in South China Sea, or the DOC. And then the DOC was signed by the Foreign Ministers from ASEAN side, 10 ASEAN Member States, and also by the Foreign Minister of China. That was done in 2002. And in 2011, we adopted guidelines on how to implement this DOC to promote confidence between ASEAN and China. And then, after that we started to work on the Code of Conduct in South China Sea (COC). We have been negotiating for the COC since 2012.

Again, when you look at South China Sea, you are looking at a number of issues. First, there are competing claims involving four of the ASEAN Member States. In ASEAN, we have 10 member states, and among the 10, we have four AMS that are claimant states, plus China. So, there are competing claims that must be resolved among the claimant states by using international law. We always advocate the use of international law, particularly the 1982 UNCLOS. So, this is the work of one level.

And another level is to make sure we keep the South China Sea as a sea of peace, stability, security, and cooperation. What is important is that we want to make sure that between ASEAN and China, we can manage the South China Sea and to keep the peace through hotlines of communication and other arrangements and in particular the Code of Conduct that we are now negotiating. We are looking to complete the process of negotiation both in terms of, not just, the outcomes on the one hand, but also in terms of the process, which is equally important. What we need is a Code of Conduct that is acceptable by all parties concerned. That is important. It should not just be in anyone's favour but it must be acceptable to both sides, ASEAN and China.

I would also add that we should not expect that the Code of Conduct or COC as the panacea for all the problems because there are a lot of problems that we may not know all of them yet, particularly those that have not yet emerged at this point. There will be emerging issues in the future. So again, I think what is important is that we must make sure that we maintain peace in our region, and we should not escalate the tensions.  

The issues that have not been resolved should be resolved, should be worked out by the parties concerned. ASEAN continues to monitor the situation very closely, and, of course, we work with China. I want to add, that with China, we have a number of mechanisms and many areas of cooperation. We should not just see ASEAN-China relations as being defined solely by the South China Sea issue.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you, Excellency. And I'll take the next round of questions.

Question No. 4: Hello, sir. My question is, what are the challenges that are currently faced by ASEAN in the security and political fields? Thank you.

Question No. 5: Excellency, ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus does not seem to be working. So, what is ASEAN's approach towards Myanmar at present? And how is it engaging with relevant stakeholders in Myanmar to de-escalate the political crisis?

Question No. 6: Hello, sir. Sir, there are a number of ASEAN-led mechanisms, like the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum, and ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM)-Plus, to foster regional trust and cooperation. How do you assess the effectiveness of these mechanisms? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Excellency, the floor is yours.

SG Dr. Kao: Thank you very much. Well, of course, there are always challenges. To say that we have no challenges is to cheat ourselves. In political security, you can say Myanmar is one of the challenges we face in ASEAN. Myanmar has been, in terms of what happened in Myanmar since February 2021, until today, there is a lot of impact of Myanmar on ASEAN's cooperation, on ASEAN Community building, on ASEAN relations with our external partners. And we are trying to manage this strategically, so that we keep our ASEAN Community building in moving forward.

Of course, you have seen people leaving Myanmar to other neighbouring countries and also to other ASEAN Member States as well. We need to address the issue of the Myanmar people, meaning, that we have to do what we can to support Myanmar, particularly the Myanmar people.

For the political dimension, the challenge is how to make sure we are able to deal with the geopolitical dynamics that is taking place at the moment. We do not want ASEAN to be a proxy to any major or great power. That is why ASEAN must define its own priorities and ensure that it will continue to lead the ASEAN-led mechanisms and strengthen ASEAN Centrality. And we must work with all the great powers, because they are also ASEAN friends and partners. And this is not easy.

In terms of the security, we have a number of non-traditional security challenges. We still have the issue of trafficking in persons, and we are working together to address this issue very effectively. I think that is why last year, under Indonesian Chairmanship, the ASEAN Leaders came out with the declaration to address, to assist our migrant workers, for example, and to make sure that they are not being taken advantage of. There are also many other challenges, including the impact of climate change.

Today, we have more natural disasters and the challenge is, the effect it has on the people, particularly people who are working in the environmental sector. Climate change impacts heavily on the environmental sector, and we have a lot of people that will be impacted negatively.

Regarding the 5PC, I do not think there is anything wrong with Five Point Consensus. In fact, this is a good reference point that the ASEAN leaders have adopted it. What we need is the cooperation from the Myanmar authorities to work with ASEAN on the implementation of the Five Point Consensus, because what we want is for Myanmar to take the lead. It is going to be a Myanmar-led, Myanmar-owned process. And ASEAN will continue to engage with Myanmar. The ASEAN Leaders already stated that engaging Myanmar does not mean that ASEAN would lend legitimacy to the regime in Naypyidaw. But we also must engage with all the different stakeholders. The Five Point Consensus provides that it is to engage through inclusive political dialogue. For this year, in 2024, the new Special Envoy (S.E.) of ASEAN Chair on Myanmar, H.E. Alounkeo Kittikhoun, has been actively engaging with the different stakeholders, those in power, and also those outside Myanmar, including the National Unity Government (NUG). In fact, he briefed the UN Security Council just recently.

Again, I must stress that what we need to do is to make sure that Myanmar is cooperating with ASEAN. The good thing is that for the very first time since February 2021, Myanmar finally decided to send its representative, a non-political representative, to the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Retreat on January 29 this year. This is for the first time that we now see Myanmar responding to ASEAN by sending a non-political representative. That is for the first time that Myanmar sent one and it is a new development.

Another development is that Thailand and Myanmar are working on another front for the humanitarian assistance. This is something that we are working on in ASEAN right now, to focus on the people of Myanmar who have been affected by the situation inside the country. We focus on how we can assist the people of Myanmar.

In Myanmar, there are three dimensions. First is humanitarian assistance, for the people who have been affected by the regime since February 2021, that is the internally displaced persons (IDPs). We're looking at roughly about 2 million IDPs inside Myanmar who require basically about US$1 billion of assistance to address them.

Second, we must address the impact of Cyclone Mocha that took place in May last year. Its impact is still there, particularly on the people and the communities.

Thirdly, the work on the repatriation of the people from Bangladesh to Rakhine State. This is something that we are still looking at very closely.

Moving on to the question on how effective the ASEAN-led mechanisms are, I would say that when you talk about how effective they are, we need to look at varying degrees. Are there other mechanisms in place aside from the East Asia Summit (EAS) that can bring together the leaders to meet and discuss on issues that they believe are important to them? For the EAS, there are certain priority issues in the framework of the EAS and when the EAS Leaders meet, they can also raise other issues.

What is important for ASEAN is that we are promoting a culture of dialogue and the habit of consultations, and of course constructive engagement. That is very important. Dialogue and diplomacy are better than open conflict. That is what we need.

And in terms of, just to give an example, the ASEAN Plus Three, we have a lot of cooperation in terms of trade, investment, tourism, and connectivity. This is benefiting ASEAN tremendously including the peoples of ASEAN. For example, we work with the U.S., which is the number one investor in ASEAN in terms of the total amount of foreign direct investment. China ranks second. We bring a lot of investment through our cooperation with our partners.

Today, we do not have open conflict. We are at peace and that is why we continue to invest in ASEAN-led mechanisms, for as long as we discuss, as long as we negotiate, as long as we talk, it is better. And that is what ASEAN is doing right now through what we call the power of engagement. The power of engagement is the power to influence. I think that is important for us in ASEAN.

Vijay Thakur Singh: I know we are running out of time, but His Excellency, the Secretary-General of ASEAN, has agreed to take another round of questions.

Question 7: Thank you, Excellency, ASEAN has Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with Australia, China, Japan, the U.S., and India. What are the synergies you see in these five CSPs? And do you foresee that ASEAN will enter a CSP-level relationship with other countries? If so, what are these countries? Thank you.

Question No. 8: Thank you, sir, for your invaluable insights. What, in your opinion, has been the key technical, economic, and political factors contributing to the greater success of ASEAN, compared to SAARC in fostering regional cooperation and achieving developmental objectives? Thank you.

Question No. 9: Thank you, sir. I am a student from South Asian University. My question is, how does ASEAN see QUAD in the Indo-Pacific region, given its geographical centrality in the region? Being the Secretary-General of ASEAN, do you wish to expand QUAD as QUAD Plus? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Excellency, the floor is yours.

SG Dr. Kao: Thank you very much. At the moment, yes, we have five CSPs. We have with the U.S., Australia, India, China, and Japan. I think it means that we have been working together on many fronts, many areas of cooperation to be able to reach this level.

You asked about the synergies. Four out of the five CSP partners are QUAD members. With the exception of China, the other four are QUAD members. We believe that as long as QUAD supports ASEAN Centrality and does not undermine ASEAN Centrality, then it complements the work of ASEAN. And what we have seen is that the various statements put out by QUAD has indicated QUAD’s support for ASEAN Community building, its unity and its Centrality. We take their words at face value.

QUAD has its own roles, collectively and individually. And we do not know yet how QUAD will evolve over time. That remains to be seen. Right now, we have the Republic of Korea, which we expected to become another CSP within this year. We have just received a request from the EU to also upgrade the Strategic Partnership to CSP. We also have other countries requesting to become Sectoral Dialogue Partners and Development Partners of ASEAN. This is something that we will continue to work on as well.

I think there are different levels of synergies that we can work with. With QUAD, this is something that we do not deal directly between ASEAN and QUAD per se, but we work with each individual member of QUAD.

On the political and technical factors that contribute to the success of ASEAN, I think ASEAN has a strong belief in ourselves and in our ability to work together. In ASEAN, we do not have the three No's. We do not have big brothers or big sisters. All ASEAN Member States make the same equal contribution to the operations of ASEAN. It does not matter if you are an LDC or a developed economy, it is the same amount of contribution. We have no big brothers, no big sisters, that is the first No.

Second, there is no core group in ASEAN, unlike the EU. Third, we do not have a block within a block. We have sub-regional cooperation arrangements which are considered as building blocks of the ASEAN Community, but there is no block within a block. This is one of the important factors that contribute to the trust building in ASEAN.

There are also other factors as spelled out in the ASEAN Charter. The decision-making process by consensus is a key factor. There is a lot of critics out there who say decision-making by consensus is not working, but it is very important in terms of the process. Because once we reach a consensus, it is unbreakable. We must be patient as we negotiate. Oftentimes, it takes a little bit more time, but at the end of the day, once we have consensus, there is no way it can break us. And we have complete unity.

Also, as you see, I want to add another factor that has brought success to ASEAN -- that is the habit of consultations and the culture of dialogues. When we work together, meaning we know each other well. And we also work at the comfort level of each other. This culture of engagement has been there. That is why I think, we do not consider ourselves as a regional organisation, instead, we consider ourselves as an ASEAN Community, a community that will work for the interests of the peoples of ASEAN.

Finally, going back to QUAD briefly, QUAD is one of the new minilaterals that have been set up in the Indo-Pacific region. AUKUS is another one. Then, of course, there are other minilaterals out there. Some are less significant than others. I think, it is normal to have this phenomenon taking place. But I think, what is important to ASEAN is that as long as they do not undermine the role of ASEAN in the region, (and we have heard that they support ASEAN and they participate in the various mechanisms of ASEAN), that would not only be in the interest of ASEAN Member States and ASEAN community but also in the interest of our ASEAN external partners as well. Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you so much, Excellency, for taking a range of questions, from the membership of East Timor to Myanmar, to QUAD, to workings of ASEAN. And I have not been able to take all the questions from the floor, but we have had a comprehensive discussion. So may I take this opportunity to thank Secretary-General of ASEAN Dr. Kao Kim Hourn for coming to Sapru House and for delivering the 48^th Sapru House Lecture. And we have all learned a lot more about ASEAN, its functioning and its priorities through your lecture. Thank you so much, Excellency.

SG Dr. Kao: Thank you very much, Excellency. Thank you very much for the opportunity.

Emcee: Thank you, sir, for your lecture. As a token of our gratitude, we from ICWA would like to give you a book as a memento.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you, Excellency.

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