Indian Council of World Affairs

Introduction 

In June 2024, the United States in coordination with Turkey, targeted an ISIS-linked human smuggling network active in Eurasia.[i] This operation led to the U.S. Department of State designating Adam Khamirzaev (aka Abu Darrar al-Shishani), the ISIS Georgia Province emir, as a terrorist.Khamirzaev is believed to be responsible for the church attack in Istanbul on January 28, 2024.[ii] This designation preceded a series of coordinated terror attacks in June 2024, in the Republic of Dagestan (in North Caucasus, Southern Russia), which targeted synagogues and Orthodox churches in the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala, resulting in over 20 deaths. These events underscore the persistent and evolving threat of the Islamic State (IS) in the Caucasus region, which warrants a comprehensive examination of its history and activities. 

Historical Context of Islamic State in the Caucasus 

The North Caucasus has had a history of violence and insurgency. The region's instability can be traced back to the proclamation of the "Caucasus Emirate" by the then-President of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in 2007. This entity, an Islamic state encompassing the entire North Caucasus, was divided into six vilayats (provinces): Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabarda-Balkaria-Karachay, Nogay Steppe, and Circassia.[iii] However, the Caucasus Emirate experienced a significant decline after 2014, as key commanders shifted their allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which later rebranded as the Islamic State (IS). This shift facilitated the rise of ISIS in the North Caucasus, culminating in the announcement of WilayatKawkaz in 2015, which included Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, and KBK (Kabarda, Balkaria, and Karachay).[iv]

Despite its establishment, WilayatKawkaz struggled to launch significant military insurgencies but succeeded in inspiring numerous lone-wolf attacks.[v] The fall of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria did not end its global aspirations; instead, it redirected its efforts towards maintaining relevance by increasing its influence in other regions, including the Caucasus. 

Recent Developments and Re-emergence 

The attacks in Dagestan once again highlighted the vulnerabilities present in the region. Although these attacks were not formally claimed by any particular outfit, the Russian wing of the ISKP linked Al-Aza’im media praised the attacks, while claiming that these were carried out by their “brothers from the Caucasus”.^[vi]

Although Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Caucasus Province, aka WilayatKawkaz has been designated as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist Group^[vii], it had become a dormant affiliation of the Islamic State. But recent reports suggest that Islamic State has now begun attempting to reactivate the WilayatKawkuz.^[viii]In April 2024, an audio clip surfaced on the Telegram channel "Кавказскийхребет" (Caucasian Ridge), in which militants from Ingushetia identified themselves as "the mujahideen of the Ingush Jamaat of the WilayatKawkaz." They appealed to the religious radicals of the Caucasus to support ISIS and threatened new attacks against Russian authorities.[ix][x]This resurgence coincides with the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow by ISKP, underscoring ISIS's ongoing efforts to expand its influence and recruitment. The attack in Moscow in March 2024 led to the deaths of 145 people[xi], and was one of the deadliest terror attacks since the Beslan school massacre of 2004. 

Socio-Economic Factors and Radicalization 

The socio-economic challenges in the North Caucasus, combined with the allure of jihad, heighten the risk of radicalization among vulnerable populations. ISIS capitalizes on these vulnerabilities through sophisticated propaganda, both online and offline. Their approach involves glorifying violence and fostering a sense of community, while on-the-ground recruiters develop interpersonal relationships to exploit feelings of alienation and offer a skewed sense of opportunity and identity. 

Russian Efforts and Implications 

Since March 2024, Russian security agencies have intensified their counterterrorism operations in the North Caucasus. Notable operations include one in March 2024 in Karabulak, Ingushetia, where six ISIS members were killed.^[xii]Similar operations have occurred in Stavropol Krai, Nalchik in the Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, and Dagestan. Experts from Russia argue that these threats are linked to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with some suggesting that Ukrainian intelligence might be leveraging existing fissures to destabilize Russia by activating sleeper cells.Experts in Russia also claim that these threats and activities are also attempts towards pitting Muslims against Russians.^[xiii]

Future Directions and Conclusion 

Even though the security agencies undertook several counter-terrorism measures in the recent past, the terror network is still active.The conflict in Ukraine is also believed to have indirectly increased the flow of arms and ammunition into the North Caucasus, elevating the threat of more large-scale attacks by groups like ISIS.[xiv] To effectively combat these threats, Russian security agencies must enhance their intelligence capabilities and adapt their strategies to include both hard and soft countermeasures. Heavy-handed methods alone often alienate the population, creating more opportunities for radicalization. 

The coordinated action by the United States and Turkey, in June 2024 against an ISIS-linked smuggling network, and the subsequent designation of Adam Khamirzaev, re-affirms the presence of the threat of ISIS in the Caucasus. As Russian security agencies grapple with the challenge of terror in the Caucasus, a multifaceted approach that combines intelligence strengthening, strategic counterterrorism operations, and socio-economic interventions is crucial to mitigate the threat and ensure long-term stability in the region. Without such a multifaceted approach by the region’s leading power, the cycle of instability, radicalization, and violence is likely to persist, making the terror attacks in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall and recently in Dagestan, harbingers of future threats.

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*Arnav Mishra, Research Intern, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i]US Department of the Treasury. (2024, June 14). Treasury Targets ISIS-linked Human Smuggling Network in Coordinated Action with Türkiye. U.S. Department of the Treasury.https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2406

[ii]ÇağatayCebe @Mucagcebe. (2024, February 19). Istanbul Church Attacks Adam Khamirzaev ["X" post]. X. https://x.com/Mucagcebe/status/1759552533305892896h

[iii]Falkowski, M., & Lang, J. (2015, June).THE CAUCASUS EMIRATE AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE FOR SECURITY IN THE CAUCASUS. Gov.pl. https://www.gov.pl/attachment/d6a72ae2-c767-45d3-b6c4-b926b9c8493c

[iv]Gambhir, H. (2015, June 23). ISIS Declares Governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus Region. Institute for the Study of War. https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isis-declares-governorate-russia%E2%80%99s-north-caucasus-region

[v]Sturdee, N., &Vatchagaev, M. (2020, October 26). ISIS in the North Caucasus.New Lines Institute.https://newlinesinstitute.org/nonstate-actors/isis-in-the-north-caucasus/and  Caucasian Knot. (2024, April 01). Analysts assessed the reasons for the intensification of the underground in the North Caucasus. Caucasian Knot.https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/398614

[vi]The Khorasan Diary. (2024, June 24). ISKP praises Dagestan attacks ["X" post]. X. https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/1804983911681818833

[vii]Federal Register. (2015, October 01). In the Matter of the Designation of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Caucasus Province, Also Known as VilayatKavkaz as a pecially Designated Global Terrorist Pursuant to Section 1(b) of Executive Order 13224. Case Text by Thomson Reuters.https://casetext.com/federal-register/in-the-matter-of-the-designation-of-islamic-state-of-iraq-and-the-levant-caucasus-province-also-known-as-vilayat-kavkaz-also-known-as-wilayat-qawqaz-also-known-as-wilayah-qawkaz-also-known-as-caucasus-wilayah-also-know

[viii]SCO RATS. (2024, April 18). Situation, Facts and Events.Situation, Facts and Events.https://ecrats.org/en/security_situation/situation/9957/

[ix]ISIS is trying to activate the "Vilayat Caucasus" in Russia. (2024, April 17). Telegram.https://t.me/prokavkaz/4487

[x]Bifolchi, G. (2024, April 19). Intelligence Report: The Ingush Jamaat and the Islamic State WilayatKavkaz. SpecialEurasia.https://www.specialeurasia.com/2024/04/19/islamic-state-wilayat-kavkaz/

[xi]RT. (2024, June 18). Türkiye warned Russia about potential Moscow terror attack – media. RT. https://www.rt.com/russia/599473-turkey-russia-warning-second-terrorist-attack/ ,  and Sputnik. (2024, April 27). Court Arrests 12th Suspect in Crocus City Hall Attack Case. Sputnik International.https://sputnikglobe.com/20240427/court-arrests-12th-suspect-in-crocus-city-hall-attack-case-1118142936.html

[xii]Caucasian Knot. (2024, March 3). Шестьчеловекубиты в перестрелке с силовиками в Карабулаке. КавказскийУзел. https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/397730

[xiii]Caucasian Knot. (2024, April 01). Analysts assessed the reasons for the intensification of the underground in the North Caucasus. Caucasian Knot.https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/398614

[xiv]Canbäck, R. (2024, June 25). The expert after the attack in Dagestan: The focus on Ukraine leads to mistakes by Russian intelligence. Blankspot.https://blankspot.se/experten-efter-attacken-i-dagestan-fokuset-pa-ukraina-leder-till-missar-hos-rysk-underattelsetjanst/