Indian Council of World Affairs

Distinguished Experts, Scholars and Friends! 

Early Situation

• On August 15, 2021, the Taliban re-entered Kabul. The world watched with a mix of shock and concern at the collapse of the Afghan Republic that was supported by a two-decade long international, extra-regional military engagement. The visuals of the take-over, you would recall, were breath-taking!
  
  
• Since then, however, Afghanistan has undergone significant changes—worthy of our reflection.
  
  
• The chief concern with the return of the Taliban has been on the dual front of reappearance of obscurantist ideology – obscurantist means unenlightened - and religious radicalism and extremism in Afghanistan, and their impact on the region and the world.
  
  
• Soon after taking control, the Taliban declared the formation of an ‘interim’ Government dominated by hardliners in the group. Promises of moderation are yet to be credibly demonstrated.

Various Parameters

• Internally, the Taliban have been able to consolidate power with Hibatullah Akhundzada, the Amir al-Mu’minin, as the central figure.
  
  
• Despite international pressure, the Taliban leaders are not as yet showing inclination to form an inclusive government or engage in meaningful dialogue with various Afghan groups.
  
  
• Intra-Afghan inter-ethnic relations continue to be quite stressed. Religious minorities continue to face marginalisation.
  
  
• Humanitarian situation has worsened. The Taliban takeover prompted foreign governments to stop all development assistance. Drought, economic collapse and isolation have compounded the problem.
  
  
• Paradoxically, the security situation across the country has improved, especially compared to the final years of the Afghan Republic. The regime has control over almost the entire country’s territory, something previous governments did not enjoy in decades. The anti-Taliban resistance is bleak in the absence of lack of international support and currently shows no sign of emergence.
  
  
• On terrorism, the ISKP has emerged as the most significant opposition to the Taliban regime. The recent high-profile assassination of the Taliban Minister of Refugees Khalil-ur-Rahman Haq qani further highlights that ISKP remains a potent force and a serious security threat to Afghanistan and the region.
  
  
• A special word on Gender: The Taliban continue to face widespread condemnation for imposing unacceptable restrictions on women’s well-being and rights, including limiting access to education, employment, and public life, in short falling far short of equal status to men. It is incumbent on the international community, especially the Islamic fraternity, to make it clear that the recognition of the Taliban as a legitimate government hinges on their ability to uphold these values in relation to women's freedoms. The Taliban's policies on women will be a critical litmus test for their acceptance in the Islamic Ummah, mainstreaming in the Afghan society, and legitimacy in the international community.

External Partner’s Approaches:

• Despite the Taliban regime’s not all acceptable domestic policies, there is a general realisation that the regime is going to stay in the foreseeable future.
  
  
• At present, the international community appears to lack a unified approach to engaging with the Taliban. No state has officially recognized the Taliban as a legitimate government, however, countries like China, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, multiple Arabian Gulf countries and a few others have cautiously moved towards a realpolitik acceptance of Taliban rule. Future trends in current US retreat will have to be monitored.
  
• There has been an attempt on part of the international community to marry principles with pragmatism, thereby pursuing a mix of isolation and selective engagement with the Talban regime.
  
  
• Countries nearer to Afghanistan have gone further in dealing with the Taliban regime in Kabul, striking trade agreements and accrediting Taliban ambassadors. They view concerns like security, water sharing, border insecurity, drug trafficking from Afghanistan and growing threat of ISKP as extremely pressing and, in some cases, they seem readier to engage with the regime.

Concerns

• Regardless of some progress in improving the security situation internally, Afghanistan continues to be a source of security threats for South Asia, Central Asian countries and the silk route arc. The resurgence of ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) poses a significant threat for the region and beyond.
  
• Despite the Taliban administration prohibiting poppy cultivation and the trade of all types of narcotics across Afghanistan, challenges of drug trafficking and arms proliferation, intra-Afghan and cross-border, remain.
  
  
• On Af-Pak, Pakistan’s concerns about cross-border militant activity, particularly from groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) allegedly operating from Afghan soil, have strained relations with the Taliban. Conversely, the Taliban’s refusal to act decisively against these groups challenges Pakistan’s security and amplifies its internal instability. These tensions risk destabilizing the already fragile Af-Pak region, fostering an environment conducive to extremism, drug and arms trafficking, and refugee crises.

India

• India wants to curb any terrorism activity which threatens India arising from Afghanistan under the Taliban-led regime. On various international platforms, India has underlined the need to ensure that Afghan territory does not become a source of radicalisation and terrorism both regionally and globally.
  
  
• India’s policy towards Afghanistan following the second fall of Kabul to Taliban has evolved as one of incremental engagement with focus on the people of Afghanistan, while putting pressure on the Taliban for inclusive governance.
  
  
• India has pursued a people-centric approach, extending humanitarian assistance as per Afghan requirements.

Lessons for Deradicalization

• The need for a focused push on deradicalization as a norm in resolving conflicts and civil strife has become increasingly urgent in today’s polarized world. Radical ideologies, extremist thought processes serve as catalysts for hate, violence, perpetuating cycles of conflict and destabilization – as is evident in Afghanistan and various other conflicts around the world. Addressing radicalization requires a multifaceted and concerted approach that combines calibrated dialogue, mainstreaming into societies, and related reforms. The path of moderation everywhere is the need of the hour.
  
  
• India wishes to see a deradicalized Afghanistan in which its people have the space to claim their rightful destiny.

Concluding Remarks

• Nearly four years since the Taliban takeover, new conflicts in other parts of the world have diverted global attention from Afghanistan. Aside from three UN-led international talks in Doha, concerns related to Afghanistan have somehow remained on the periphery.
  
  
• At ICWA, there has been a conscious effort to closely follow the developments in Afghanistan on a regular basis. Afghanistan is an important neighbor, the well-being of whose people has traditionally been close to India’s heart. Today’s panel discussion on Afghanistan is part of that endeavor whereby the objective is to take stock of the situation in Afghanistan and look forward.
  
  
• Considering Brig. Saurabh Sharma was present in Kabul as India’s Military Attache during a very crucial time in Afghanistan’s recent history and has not only witnessed the US withdrawal and the subsequent Taliban takeover, but also continued to keep a close watch on Afghanistan, we would like to know his thoughts on how he sees the current situation and the road ahead for Afghanistan. We are also extremely keen to know the perspective of the Area Experts -Prof. Raghav Sharma and Dr. Shalini Chawla, on Afghanistan and the region at large.