Distinguished Experts, Students and Friends!
The Dispute
The South China Sea is a historically contested region, with many countries claiming sovereignty over its parts. The contestation is between China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, and Malaysia. It involves delineating the waters as well as territory. China claims more than 90 per cent of the region. Its claims are represented by the u-shaped “nine-dash line”.
The Tensions
China has steadily stepped up its activities in the South China Sea and shown aggressive postures. The region has become a geopolitical theatre with rising tensions between countries. These tensions have, in turn, drawn the attention of the US and other countries in and outside the region, thereby making the security situation volatile.
IR Principles
Good Neighbourliness, Regionalism and Rule of Law are fundamental principles of International Relations. All these principles are not only applicable to the South China Sea dispute but also show the way forward towards its peaceful resolution.
Pursuit of Good Neighbourliness is important to ensure a secure environment for a country’s growth and reaching its potential. A difficult neighbourhood is a liability both in terms of security and development while a peaceful periphery is an asset. Neighbours understand each other more than anyone else. After all, life existed and communities lived together even before present day boundaries and States were formed. The principle of good-neighbourliness therefore involves cooperation of neighbouring states to achieve common goals.
Regionalism is the expression of a common identity and purpose to shape collective action to meet common challenges. Regionalism is premised on the thought that countries of a region best understand the issues and problems of the region and are best equipped to resolve them. Based on the principle of regionalism, in this case of South East Asia, regional collective action takes primacy over recourse to extra-regional assistance/intervention.
Respect for international law is a fundamental tenet that ensures certainty and predictability in State behavior and order and stability in inter-State relations.
These basic IR principles have, however, been disregarded by China.
Efforts so far
Efforts to work with China towards establishing a Code of Conduct have not worked so far, though the negotiations between China and South East Asia have been going on for a fairly long period but it is unclear when these would be concluded.
Given the fact that China has thus far been reticent in negotiating a Code of Conduct with the other claimants and its dismissal of the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling, doubts remain whether China will be willing to sign a legally binding agreement any time soon. Should that hurdle be overcome somehow, further concerns in any case remain about implementation. Will there be an effective mechanism to monitor and enforce any violation?
ASEAN CoC
An alternate framework for an understanding on the South China Sea dispute that is premised on and strengthens the founding principles of ASEAN and upholds the rule of law could be considered among the South East Asian claimants. An ASEAN Code of Conduct on the South China Sea would be welcome.
Perhaps the current Malaysian chairmanship and the recent positive dynamics in Vietnam-Philippines relationship (first joint maritime exercise in August 2024) and Malaysia-Vietnam relations (conclusion of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement in November 2024) will provide the necessary impetus in this regard.
India
While South China Sea is a dispute among neighbouring countries of ASEAN and China, events in the region impact India as South-East Asia falls in its extended neighbourhood. In the context of our Act East Policy and the Indo-Pacific vision, tensions in the disputed region routinely come up in diplomatic and academic discussions with our friends from the region.
Over 55 per cent of India’s trade passes through the South China Sea. India undertakes various activities with littoral states of the South China Sea, including cooperation in oil and gas sector, maritime exercises and HADR cooperation.
Being a key country of the Indo-Pacific, we have an abiding interest in maintaining good order at sea and enhancing regional and global peace and security. India’s Indo-Pacific vision stands for a free, open, inclusive region, which embraces all in a common pursuit of progress and prosperity.
Importantly, India’s Indo-Pacific policy is premised on the centrality of ASEAN. Even before coining of the term Indo-Pacific, India’s approach towards the eastern Asian region has been based on its engagement with ASEAN and its mechanisms such as the CSCAP, ARF, ADMM+, East Asian Summit, etc.
India believes that the destiny of Southeast Asian nations should be decided by them and not dictated by others.
International Response
The South China Sea is a complex issue. It is essential to send out a message to the countries of the region on exercising restraint and not resorting to provocations to maintain calm and lower tensions. It is also important to send out a message on the importance of upholding international law, especially UNCLOS 1982, in the face of the challenge to the rule based international order that the situation represents, which India for instance has consistently done.
That said, it is also important to say that, while openness of sea lanes of communication is a sacrosanct principle, freedom of navigation does not hold without qualification such as cooperative maritime domain awareness frameworks to maintain good order and tranquillity at sea.
Concluding Remarks
Our Panel Discussion today is intended to explore a cooperative way forward on the South China Sea issue, of course, while being deeply cognizant of the rising tensions in the region as seen in frequent clashes between vessels and skirmishes between uniformed personnel in the South China Sea amidst sharpening US-China rivalry. There is a real danger of tensions in the region spreading to the other incendiary situation in Indo-Pacific i.e. the Taiwan Strait; and to other areas in the region where territorial or maritime boundaries are undefined like East China Sea or Gulf of Thailand; and also to other unstable points on China’s periphery.
Unfortunately, the world today is ridden with conflicts and polarization and we have to try to find the way forward in this backdrop. As for India, to serve its interests as well as shared objectives and to further strengthen its traditionally friendly relations with the countries of the region, it is developing ties with them across sectors including defense, security and military to military.
I look forward to an engaging and lively discussion. I wish the panellists all the best.
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