Indian Council of World Affairs

 

M: A very good afternoon, Excellency’s, Ladies and Gentlemen. On behalf of the Indian Council for World Affairs, I welcome you all to the 48th Sapru House Lecture, to be delivered by His Excellency, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, Secretary General of ASEAN, and the theme, ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the Evolving Regional Architecture.

Before I request Ambassador Vijay Thakur Singh, Director-General, ICWA, to deliver the welcome remarks, I kindly request all of you to turn off your cell phones or put them on silent mode. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Good afternoon, His Excellency Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, Secretary General of ASEAN, Dr. Jayant Khobragade, Ambassador of India to ASEAN, Heads of Mission and Members of the Diplomatic Corp, Senior Colleagues from the Ministry of External Affairs, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. I am delighted to welcome to the Indian Council of World Affairs, Secretary General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, who is on his first visit to India in his capacity as ASEAN Secretary General. He has been here on earlier occasions, but as Secretary General, this is his first visit to India.

His Excellency has a very strong academic background and has been a practising politician and a diplomat of his country, Cambodia. He has chosen to speak on the theme, ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the Evolving Regional Architecture, at today's Sapru House Lecture. Secretary General Hourn's visit comes at a time when we in India are marking and celebrating the first decade of the Act East policy that Prime Minister Narendra Modi enunciated in 2014.

I would like to mention two milestones in the decade of the Act East policy. One in 2018, which marked 25 years of India-ASEAN ties, when the leaders of all the 10 ASEAN countries were Chief Guests at the Republic Day of India, the only time ever leaders of a grouping had participated in our National Day celebrations. The second milestone was in November 2022, when India and ASEAN became Comprehensive Strategic Partners, a journey that took only 30 years. So, what is the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership? Is it just an adjective added to the strategic partnership, or is it something beyond that? Is it just a listing of a few more activities, or more than that?

A quick review of the contemporary history of our relationship in the background of the current geopolitical situation is illustrative. India established relations with ASEAN in 1992 when the world had entered the post-Cold War period, and the process of globalisation with its very complex and elaborate supply chains was underway. However, in the post-pandemic world, the broken supply chains and dependency on a few countries demonstrated the need for multiple powerhouses of manufacturing, growth, and influence to bring balance to the world. As the trends indicate, the world is steadily moving in the direction of a multipolar world. And for a multipolar world, a multipolar Indo-Pacific is a prerequisite. In this context, India and ASEAN, taking their partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership, assumes special significance, as both India and ASEAN are very important in the Indo-Pacific region.

We in India see the ASEAN-India comprehensive strategic partnership as being key to our Act East policy, with ASEAN's centrality in the evolving structure that is coming up in the Indo-Pacific region. Our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership recognises that for the Indo-Pacific region, where two big oceans are linked, cooperation in the maritime domain is critical for growth and prosperity. In this, activities under ASEAN's Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) and India's Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) complement one another. Moreover, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership pays due attention to advancing cooperation in all pillars, between our two, India and ASEAN. The pillars are commerce, connectivity, culture, and capacity building.

At the 20th ASEAN Summit held last year in November, Prime Minister Modi outlined a 12-point roadmap to further Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and in that context, for building synergies and strengthening our cooperation. The roadmap shows India's commitment to ASEAN. With these words, may I now invite Secretary-General Dr. Kao Kim Hourn to deliver the 48th Sapru House Lecture, and how he sees ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the Evolving Regional Architecture.

Excellency, the floor is yours.

Kao Kim Hourn: Your Excellency, Ambassador Vijay Thakur Singh, Director General of Indian Council of World Affairs, Excellency, Jayant Khobragade, Ambassador of the Republic of India to ASEAN, Excellency’s, Distinguished Ambassadors, Ladies, Gentlemen and Scholars. I'd like to start by expressing my gratitude to the Indian Council of World Affairs, for this kind invitation, to speak under this 48th Sapru House Lecture, on the topic of the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the Evolving Regional Architecture. I also want to put on record my appreciation, to the Ministry of External Affairs for the invitation to visit India in 2024. This is my first working visit in 2024, so India I've chosen as the first country to visit. And I want to also extend my appreciation to Ambassador Jayant for all the arrangements.

Today I will highlight some of the key issues that have defined our relations, cooperation and partnership between ASEAN and India. As you know, this year will mark 32 years of our relations. The relations are not defined by these 32 years of cooperation, as we are defined by geography and defined by centuries of cooperation. What I'm going to do is that I'm going to focus a little bit since the establishment of ASEAN, and it goes through very fast. And then we come back to focus e on the ASEAN-India CSP. But as you know very well the history of ASEAN, is that when it was set up back in 1967, the world was still very much in the Cold War, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War, among other conflicts around the world. The region was basically still uncertain and almost half of ASEAN Member States were still very much involved in conflicts. So, you can see that the region -- at the time and the region now.

But when the leaders decided to set up ASEAN back in 1967, the original members, the goal was basically peace, focus on prosperity and that's the economic agenda, economic cooperation. What I want to say is that ASEAN started through the establishment of the Bangkok Declaration in 1967 and over the year you've seen all the key instruments. Then we had the Zone of Peace and Cooperation, we had the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Then later on, we had the Concord I, Concord II and certainly the ASEAN Charter back in 2007, which gave ASEAN legal personality. So, all of these were basically happening after the end of the Cold War.

Also, the expansion of ASEAN membership started with Brunei for example back in 1984, the first enlargement, then came the second enlargement in 1995 with Vietnam being admitted and the third enlargement came through the inclusion of Laos and Myanmar. The fourth enlargement came with Cambodia as a new member back in 1999. In 2022, the ASEAN leaders decided to expand the membership to include Timor-Leste as the next, but currently enjoys an observer status.

I'll just give you a quick snapshot of what comprises ASEAN today. And of course, through that, we have also the increasing number of dialogue partners, of which many are sectoral dialogue partners as in the case of Australia and Japan which dates to 1974 for example. This year we celebrated the 50th anniversary with Japan and, just next month we will celebrate the 50th anniversary of our relationship with Australia. So, all of this I just want to mention to you, Excellency’s, ladies and gentlemen, is just a snapshot of the past. But what has come about is that the establishment of new mechanism, particularly with the establishment of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Defence Minister Plus (ADMM Plus), all this new mechanism came about very fast, particularly when we talk about after the end of the Cold War. And I think all these new mechanisms are very important.

Now today what we've seen in ASEAN is that, the key instrument that has been expanding rapidly, and that is the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, TAC. And this key document that started out in 1976, today we have a total of 54 high contracting parties, 10 from ASEAN member states, and of course 44 non-ASEAN, but of course it should be 43, as Timor-Leste is another country in Southeast Asia. So in total now we have 54 high contracting parties, but now we have also new countries that will be added on, including Algeria, Finland, Mexico, Luxembourg, and Spain. Particularly Mexico, Luxembourg, and Spain will be ready to come on board to ratify, we're looking at some time later this year, either in July or in October.

Ladies and gentlemen, I think what we know, is that ASEAN's position has always been focused very much on the culture of dialogue and to have the consultations, and also the strategy of external engagement. It's very clear, I think external engagement has always been the key strategy that ASEAN has been working on. Particularly with our external partners, through the ASEAN Plus One Arrangement or Modality, ASEAN Plus Three, or through the ARF, we have 27 member states now, and of course also through the ADMM Plus, the defence sector, and the ASEAN Summit is the strategic leaders-driven meeting.

I want to share with you, Excellency, today that we have a total of 11 dialogue partner countries, seven sectoral dialogue partners, and five development partners that are actively engaging the ASEAN. And at the same time, besides this formal relationship, we also have a total of 95 countries that are accredited to ASEAN with the ambassadors. We talk about ASEAN, but 95 countries that have already sent accredited ambassadors to ASEAN, who work closely with ASEAN. And this is growing. I think this is very important for ASEAN in terms of our engagement but also in terms of cooperation. The way we work in ASEAN, of course, we work through a number of levels of engagement. For example, with India, we’re working through bilateral cooperation, meaning between India and each ASEAN member state. We also work through regional cooperation arrangements like the Mekong Ganga Cooperation, MGC, or other sub-regional arrangements also.

But we also work at the ASEAN level through bilateral ASEAN-India, but also through other mechanisms where India is a key player and a key participant, like the ARF, ADMM Plus, and the East Asia Summit. And of course, we collaborate at the international level also.

Excellency, I just want to say that all of this cooperation is also guided by various frameworks and principles that we have been working together between ASEAN and India. And of course, certainly, all of these are very much because we have shared interests. The interests are in the political security cooperation, the interests are in economic cooperation, the interests are in social cultural cooperation. At the moment, you’re looking at the economic area, for example, our trade with India. We have a bilateral FTA with India. So the volume of trade is quite significant. Of course, we still can do a lot more. I think our Economic Ministers will be discussing with their Indian counterpart in terms of reviewing the AITGA, what we call ASEAN-India Trade in Goods, Agreement, but also to looking at our bilateral FTA. We have to make sure that the bilateral FTA remains relevant to the business community, particularly the businesses and companies, and that's very important for both sides.

I also want to highlight that at the moment, looking at how the people of ASEAN look at ASEAN itself, because sometimes this is something that people ask, ‘How is ASEAN being viewed by its own citizens?’ And that's very important in terms of raising the profile of ASEAN's identity. Of course, based on the poll that was conducted back in 2018, on ASEAN awareness, what we found is that 94% of the general public that have been surveyed identified themselves as ASEAN citizens. So that's very high and two-fifths of citizens strongly affiliate themselves with ASEAN. So I think, I want to share with you these statistics in terms of how the people in the region in ASEAN are looking at ASEAN as a whole.

But also, there is a higher proportion of the general population, it's roughly about 83%, that see themselves benefiting from being citizens in ASEAN. And you might ask, what's the benefits of being ASEAN citizens? What I can say is that, well, first, of course, in ASEAN, the 10 countries, we don't need visa, right? 671 million people do not need visa to travel among the 10 countries. You can just book your flight, get on the plane, where you want to go with the ASEAN zone. It's there. Also, you can see also the benefits of increasing connectivity. Before you want to travel, say, from Laos to Manila, you had to transit somewhere overnight, whether in Bangkok, Singapore, or Kuala Lumpur. But today, there's no need to transit, see, at all. Also because ASEAN has increasingly become an integrated market, we're able to attract foreign direct investment.

We look at the number back in 2022, just right after COVID, in volume of FDI, ASEAN came in second place, only after the United States as the destination for FDI inflows. Based on the numbers, meaning when compared to 2019, the volume of FDI almost doubled to what we received before COVID-19. So this is all, this is a benefit, of course, investment. It means that we create jobs, increase exports. In fact, in terms of trade, for example, India ranks 8th, as a top trading partner. Of course, we have other countries that we do it in terms of top trading partners, like the EU, EU ranks 3rd, in terms of as a trading partner. Also, we have with China, I think China is a top trading partner in the past 14 consecutive years. So, with the U.S., Japan, Korea, Australia, all of these are the key trading partners with ASEAN.

I mentioned all of this to you that things are moving rapidly, but then, of course, I have to share with you the challenges we face. There are a number of challenges we face, and I cannot just raise only the positive, but also there are challenges we face also. The challenges, of course, started back in 1997. We remember the Asian financial crisis. A number of ASEAN Member States were hit very hard by the impact of the financial crisis that led to the creation of the Chiang Mai Initiative, and then later on it was upgraded to the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation, in 2009, and then set up the ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office or AMRO.

Then, of course, another great challenge, of course, is terrorism, right? And, of course, violent extremism, terrorism, that led to the establishment of the ASEAN Convention on Counterterrorism. Also, we had the ASEAN Declaration on Joint Action to Counterterrorism. And, of course, also the ASEAN Comprehensive Plan of Action on Counterterrorism, all of these, because we had the problem. So that's, you know, we, even today, we don't take it for granted when it comes to terrorism, for example.

Another challenge, of course, you could say, of course, the pandemic, COVID-19. And even today, we still believe that the pandemic remains a challenge, but also there could be a possible new pandemic. That's why the ASEAN Leaders decided to set up the ASEAN Center for Public Health Emergency and Emerging Diseases, actually, to be based in three ASEAN Member States, in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, to have a shared responsibility. So, again, the pandemic is another important issue that we have to address in terms of, we see it as also a challenge.

Another area, of course, you know very well, climate change which is a key issue that's still very much, I think is something that we have to focus on in terms of impact, because the region is prone to disasters, particularly natural disasters. So all of this, I think, is very important.

Of course, one of our greatest challenges, of course, is rising tension. We talk about the geopolitical, geo-economic competition. It's there. It has been there. It is something that we are looking at very closely in ASEAN. You know very well that this it's not only about the competition or rivalry, but something that, for the region, we have to really manage. And that's why, for ASEAN, we have worked very hard to, on the one hand, to promote confidence building. Also, we have to enhance strategic trust and focus on conflict prevention. All the consultations and dialogues and diplomacy that we have regularly, on an annual basis, is to ensure that the region remains peaceful, stable, and secure, so that we would be able to promote, would be able to use more of our resources and efforts focusing on building the prosperity agenda for our people, and that's important.

So let me move forward, of course, a little bit on other challenges. Of course, you know very well at one point we thought that wars, have become obsolete, but then what happened in Ukraine? Russia-Ukraine, now the Middle East, and we cannot pretend that all of these wars in conflict have no impact on our region. I think that would be presumptuous, but of course very clearly we are not, we cannot escape the impact. I also want to underline that what we certainly see in the region is that these conflicts that's happening, not only outside the region, but also we have to manage some of the tensions that have been built up in the region. And that's why I think particularly you've seen the Indo-Pacific strategy have been put out by many countries, including the European Union. And that's why back in 2019, ASEAN came up with its own ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, AOIP.

And with that, of course, ASEAN's strategy is to manage and to take the lead on the AOIP, and now we have to define already the four priority areas of cooperation that we'd like other partners to come on board to work with us in the four priority areas of Maritime Cooperation, Sustainable Development Goals, SDG, of course Connectivity, Economic, and other areas of cooperation, and I think this is something that we'd like to also work with India as well.

Now, actually, let me move forward a little bit, I want to share with you, and then I'll come back to you on focus on the ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. At the moment, we are working on something that we have not done before, and that is to work on crafting the 20-year vision, the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. In the past over 50 years, ASEAN never had such a long-term vision, a 20-year vision, but now we are working on a 20-year vision that would start from 2026 until 2045. The draft has been completed, our leaders have taken note of it, and now the High-Level Task Force, particularly from the three pillars and the connectivity, we are working on crafting the strategic plans that would be four strategic plans to implement this 20-year vision, a community vision.

So that's something that we would like to share with you, because I think based on what we have done is to look at the megatrends, what we perceive to be the challenges that are facing our region and the world in the next 20 years. So based on this is that we come up with the vision, the community vision, and then the four strategic plans on how we will implement the 20-year vision.

Excellency, I had a very good discussion this morning with India’s Minister of External Affairs. We like to see India at some point come on board joining with us on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). We believe that this is in the interest for all of us.

Now let me focus on the ASEAN-India CSP, actually which is something that I would like to focus on. Excellency, I just want to say that ASEAN-India has been working together in four phases already. Starting in 1992, you mentioned, Ambassador, we were the sectoral Dialogue Partners, and then in 1995, the partnership was elevated to the Full-Dialogue Partnership. In 2012, that partnership was elevated to Strategic Partnership, and then in 2022, 10 years later, it was upgraded in 2022 to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. And you made a point, which I listened very carefully. What is CSP? Is it just the addition of additional activities, or it's just something we put in a statement?

No, I think basically what we have here is that we have built a strong foundational relationship based on trust. Trust is the key. ASEAN and India, are defined by geography. We have land and maritime borders. We are neighbors. We also, as I just mentioned earlier, we are defined by centuries of relationship. I think we are no strangers to each other. We've been working together. And also, we have close relationship between people, whether through languages, culture or religions. But what we have between 1992 and this year, these are more the formal relationship that has defined what we have today. Meaning, we work together in political security. And I would also say, for the very first time in 2022, in the defense sector, ASEAN Defence Ministers and Indian Defence Minister had an informal dialogue for the very first time.

Of course, India has been involved significantly in the ASEAN Defense Minister Plus expert working groups. India was very active, has been very active. But of course, besides that, India has been active also in the East Asia Summit from the very beginning. This is a leaders-led forum. Of course, also through the ASEAN Plus One mechanism, meaning that we have many mechanisms in place. At the Summit levels, at the Minister levels, at the Senior Official levels, at the technical working group levels, cutting across the different sectors, ranging from the digital sector to agriculture, to tourism, among others.

So all this means that we work together through the different areas of cooperation. Because in ASEAN, we have the three pillars, ASEAN community, but also under the three pillars, we have many sectors. So here, that's where we work. We work constantly. There have been a lot of meetings also. Those meetings are not for the sake of meetings, but there have been a lot of negotiations. And of course, those negotiations, they lay the foundation of long-term relationship.

The fact that, of course, also the government of India set up a mission of to ASEAN with a full-fledged ambassador, and his team is working closely not only with the ASEAN Secretariat but also with the ASEAN Member States, that have their separate Missions. And, of course, also with other partners, it means that we have a lot of programs, projects, and activities that define our cooperation, that go beyond words and statements and declarations. It means that we have concrete activities that benefit both sides. Like, for example, trade. I think we are able to increase the volume of trade because we have mechanisms in place to promote trade.

But of course, also on people to people ties, we have many areas of cooperation in India, particularly we have the exchange of people programs, the exchange of scholars, the exchange of media personalities. So all of these are very concrete activities that go beyond statements.

Let me also say, in terms of what we've been doing together. Of course, beside the plan of action that we have, 2021, 2025, and of course with the annex to this plan of action as part of the CSP, but I think what we need, what we have been doing is that we expand the cooperation on the one hand, and of course, as Madam Ambassador just mentioned, the 12 points that were highlighted, that were proposed by Excellency Prime Minister in September last year, that was something put forward, and now we're looking at how we implement some of those proposals that have been put forward also.

But also we have deepened the cooperation, to make sure that the areas of cooperation become more productive, more beneficial on both sides. And I think, for example, in areas that we're now working on very closely, maritime cooperation, I think we did some work there together already, because India is a maritime nation, ASEAN is a maritime region, of course with the exception of Laos as a landlocked, but everyone else, other ASEAN Member States are also a maritime nation as well. So ASEAN community is really a large space of maritime. So maritime cooperation is an area that we've been working together.

Now of course also in the tourism sector, we're looking at how we can expand this area, for example. We have 671 million people, so our tourists right now go to Japan, China, Korea, for example. Why not come to India? I think this is an area that we should expand, for example. The same thing, we should also welcome tourists from India to ASEAN as well. There is increasing air connectivity between the two sides, more flights, passengers on both sides. I think this is all good. I think that's something that we're looking forward to expanding between ASEAN and India under the CSP.

Also another area that we look forward to working with India, in the areas that we believe these are the new drivers of ASEAN economy. We have the green, blue, circular, and digital economy.

Last year, ASEAN launched the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreements and Negotiations. We're looking at increasing the digital economy to US$2 trillion by 2030. So we believe that India has a lot of expertise, and, of course, also best practice in this area where we can collaborate and work together. I think this is an area, for example, we can expand under CSP.

Also I would say, in terms of food security also, because climate change now, food security is necessary for both sides. ASEAN, although we export a lot of agricultural products, but we also import. For example, one of the ASEAN Member States, like Malaysia, imports a lot of chicken from China, a lot of chicken, and that's a fact. So why not we work together, look at existing areas of cooperation, where we can identify we can do more together. It's all about mutual benefits. It should be both ways. So agriculture, food security, for example, an area we can work together.

Also in science, technology, and innovation, for example, in energy sector. Energy sector is now one of the top priorities in ASEAN, particularly as we move to a clean, green and renewable energy sector, where we're now looking at investment in solar energy, wind energy, and also in hydro, all of these because we have commitments under COP28, and that's where ASEAN will continue to move ahead. But based on the study by the ASEAN Centre for Energy in ASEAN, our energy needs will continue to grow because of the economic growth, but also in terms of population growth. So our energy demand continues to increase. And of course, what we have now, of course, is to power the energy and the population growth, we mean we will have to invest more in the energy sector. So again, this is another area we can work together as well.

FinTechs, for example, that's another area we should work together. So again, these are all the areas that we should look and identify under the CSP. It should be mutual, how we should open the doors to the private sector, the business community to take advantage of the businesses there on both sides.

Excellency, I just want to mention on the Social Cultural ties, I think we must bring our cooperation, relation and partnership at the end of the day down to the people. Have the people benefit from our CSP? And of course, through various exchange programs involving youth, students, media, artists, among others, I think we have to really deepen, we need to do more in this area. I think this is something that we should be actively promoting. We will work closely, of course, with the mission of India to ASEAN. We will work closely with the different line Ministries from both sides.

Now, of course, there are certain sectors that we don't have mechanism in place yet, and that's something we'd like to see forthcoming. How, we can expand? And then we have to include India -- with ASEAN, and that's something that our member states will have to look at what more can be done to expand. So again, actually, I think for the CSP hasa lot of room to grow. We have the new areas, but also the existing areas where we can deepen to make sure that we take advantage. I just want to say trade, develop trade. I'm sure at the moment we can move up the slot, so I think it means that our economic ministers and your economic minister will have to work together to see how can we increase trade on both sides, take advantage of the opportunities that we have now.

In terms of market size, of course, India, 1.4 billion people plus, ASEAN is growing soon to be 700 million, so it's about almost half of India. And, of course, combining ASEAN and India together is over 2 billion already. I think there's enormous potential, enormous opportunities there.

Now, of course, let me move on, and then I will stop there, and then we have discussions. Excellency, I just want to mention also, the area that we should be working together very closely. And that, of course, peace and security. We cannot take peace for granted, given the world today. And that's why we are happy that soon, we will officially inaugurate the Statue of Gandhi at ASEAN Headquarters, because this statue symbolises non-violence, peace, which we need in the world today. And ASEAN is a strong proponent of peace and non-violence. So this is one thing, I think we should be actively promoting between ASEAN and India in the world today. That's what we need. We need more leadership. We need peace leadership. I think the younger generations, on both sides, as in India, we need to focus on peace, so that we have more resources, rather than invest in arms race or arms build-ups. We should be invest in the people. And that's very, very important.

And why I say this? Because with all the resources we have, we should focus on resource development, we should focus on technology development, we should focus on building an economy, building prosperity for our people. So that's the way, I think we should be working together very closely.

And also, we work to reduce tensions in the region, in the wider region. Because with increasing trust, strategic trust, we can do more together, particularly, I'm sure also for ASEAN, we are a strong proponent of an open, rule-based trading system. We want to see more trade in the world. And you actually mentioned initially, Madam Ambassador mentioned about the multi-polarity in the world today. Of course, between ASEAN and India, we should be actively promoting this. A world that will focus so much more on the interests of the people in this region. As in India, I see over 2 billion people. So I think what we need to do is to have greater voices in global and international affairs. That's why one of the things ASEAN is focusing on now, of course, is to make sure that we have our voices, not just within the region, but also in the global community.

As you can see, I hope we like to see India continue to support ASEAN centrality, ASEAN community building, and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. Of course, we do it through engagement, dialogue, diplomacy, and cooperation. And I think there's a lot of shared interest between the two sides. That's where we should be focusing on. We should spend more energy working together. I think, basically, trust is really the key in our partnership. The more trust we have, I think the long-term future can be assured.

So, with that, let me stop here. Excellency, and I will have more time to discuss on other issues. But I want to say, I want to end by saying that, I think there's still a lot of opportunity between ASEAN and India, to work together in all areas of cooperation. And of course, with the strong CSP, ASEAN and India can play an active role.

With that, thank you very much, Excellency, and a good afternoon to you.

M: Thank you so much, for a very insightful lecture. I request the Chair, Ambassador Vijay Thakur Singh, to moderate the discussion.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you so much, Excellency, for your remarks. Thank you so much, Excellency, for your remarks. You have given us a very comprehensive overview of ASEAN, starting from its inception to expanding membership, to the challenges that are faced by the region to the prospects of its growth and its own vision, which you have formulated for the next 20 years, and also the fact that both of us, India and ASEAN, are located in a region which we share. We are maritime neighbours; we are land neighbours. And in that shared space, in the maritime domain, we have a considerable amount of possibilities to work together, as you mentioned, Excellency. But the basic ingredient of India-ASEAN CSP is trust. And that trust gives us the opportunity to work with each other in a range of topics, from security, political engagement, to trade, to culture, to people-to-people contacts.

And today, in the audience, Excellency, we, of course, have a range of participants, from former diplomats, currently serving Secretary to Government of India. We have students, we have media, we have diplomats. So I look forward to questions from the floor and your answers. What I would do is I will take three questions at a time. We will ask those who raised their hands to identify themselves and come straight to the question. And then I give the floor to you and we'll take two rounds, and then we see how the time is going. So the floor is open for questions.

I have a hand there, I have a hand back there and I have a hand, another hand there. So we can start, we can start from here.

FQ1: Thank you, sir, for a very insightful lecture. My question is, you stressed on cooperation and trust amongst partners. So given the geopolitical ferment that is undertake -- going right now and the economic uncertainties, I just wanted to know from you what kind of partnerships is ASEAN looking in the broader Indo-Pacific region? Thank you so much.

Vijay Thakur Singh: The second question, right there.

MQ1: Thank you, sir, for your lecture. Sir, I wanted to ask, what kind of timeline do you see for Timor-Leste to join the ASEAN? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: And the other, also there, right there.

MQ2: Hello, sir. Sir, my question is on maritime security and maritime cooperation. Sir, as we all know, that China's assertive actions in South China Sea and the Belt and Road Initiative of China has some way influenced the Asian countries to regional security. My question to you is that being a Secretary General of ASEAN, what will be -- what are your commitments for having an open Indo-Pacific and inclusive Indo-Pacific? At the same time, being a student of South Asian University, sir, I just wanted to get an enlightenment from you about the students' exchange program between the ASEAN and India. Thank you, sir.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Excellency, with these questions, the floor is -- three questions.

Kao Kim Hourn: I didn't get the first, the second one.

Vijay Thakur Singh: The second question was Timor-Leste. How long will it take for Timor-Leste to become a full member?

Kao Kim Hourn: Thank you very much for those questions. Well, first, trust. What ASEAN is look for partnership? ASEAN look for partnership to work together in the ASEAN Outlook in the Indo-Pacific. We have seen the U.S., China, and other partners already, of course, also India, as well, expressed support for the AOIP. The way we work is based on inclusivity, openness, and transparency. That's how ASEAN engagement has always been.

So the partnership, what we are looking for, of course, that the partnership to be able to work together in the four priority areas of cooperation, that will bring about mutual benefits. And I think we have to move away from activities that create or raise more tensions. I think by collaborating together on various projects that will bring about mutual understanding and, of course, also building better relations. So that's why the AOIP that was put out back in 2019 and subsequently last year, in 2023, and the Indonesian Chairmanship, ASEAN put out the various concrete activities, but also in hosting the first ASEAN Indo-Pacific Forum.

You've seen the EU has its own EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Meeting. ASEAN had the first one last year, we expect to have a second one this year. So we are in the region, we know what's best for our region. I think that's important, particularly for the countries in the region, we have to look at what are the priorities for our countries in the region. That's number one, I think it's what kind of partnership that will promote shared interests. I think clearly -- and of course based on inclusiveness, transparency, and of course the broader interests.

Timor-Leste, we expect, well right now, we're working at three levels with Timor-Leste. One, of course, is on formalisation, based on the roadmap, meaning that we have included, we have invited Timor-Leste State to participate in all ASEAN meetings, from the Summit Leaders level to, down to working groups. And we want to make sure that Timor-Leste would understand the working methodology in ASEAN. And I think they have been participating very actively since last year. And also Timor-Leste has already set up its own mission with a full-fledged Ambassador and the team in Jakarta.

The second set of activities, what we talk about, the capacity building. And based on what we heard from the request from Timor-Leste, they expect to train about 2,000 officials across the different line Ministries. Because ASEAN is not just the work of the Foreign Ministry officials. They have to involve all the line Ministries, agency because the three pillars ASEAN community cut across all the different sectors. And I think that's why it's important to involve the capacity building of all the officials.

Third of course, is the list of documents and treaties, agreements that need to be ratified by Timor-Leste, before becoming a full member of ASEAN. So having said that, I think it's politically, there's a political commitment by Timor-Leste to accelerate the membership, they want to come in as early as possible. But on the technical side, I think there's still a gap which we have to continue to work together.

Of course, ideally, I mean, they have asked already when they want to come in. They're looking at maybe 2025. But again, at the end of the day, this will rest entirely with the member states of ASEAN, when the membership shall be ready, yeah.

Now of course on China's, you say, actions in the South China Sea and the Belt Road Initiative commitment. I would say, like this, ASEAN's engagement with China has been there for some time. We worked with China initially to negotiate for the Declaration of Conduct -- the Code of Conduct, the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in South China Sea, or DOC. And then that was signed by the Foreign Ministers from ASEAN side, 10 member states, and then from China. Then that was done in 2002. In 2011 we adopted guidelines on how to implement this DOC in order to promote confidence between ASEAN and China. And then, of course, what happened afterward. And now we've been working on for a few years already working on the Code of Conduct in South China Sea.

Again, when you look at South China Sea, you're looking at a number of issues. And we have to look at this, we have to see it very clearly. Number one, of course, South China Sea, there are competing claims, okay. Involving four of the ASEAN member states, because in ASEAN we have 10 member states, and among the 10, we have four that are claiming states, plus China, plus Taiwan. So there are competing claims that have to be resolved among the claiming states using International Law.

We always advocate International Law, particularly the 1982 UNCLOS. So that's at one level. And another level, of course, to make sure we keep the South China Sea as a sea of peace, stability, security, and cooperation. What's important is that we want to make sure that between ASEAN and China we are able to manage the South China Sea to keep the sea at peace. So through hotlines, through other arrangements, but of course the COC would be a Code of Conduct that we negotiated. We're looking at both in terms of, not just, the outcomes on the one hand, but also the process. The process is equally important. What we need is a Code of Conduct that is acceptable by all parties concerned. That's important. It's not in anyone's favor, but it has to be acceptable by both sides, particularly ASEAN and China.

Now, of course, I think I also want to add that we should not expect that the Code of Conduct or COC would be a panacea for all the problems. Because there's a lot of problems we don't know yet, maybe not emerging yet. There will be emerging issues in the future also. So again, I think what's important is that we must make sure that we keep the sea at peace and we should not escalate what's happening. And, of course, to make sure that what we have is that we should maintain the current situation.

Of course, the issues that we've seen now should be resolved, meaning should be worked out by the parties concerned. Of course, ASEAN continues to monitor the situation very closely, and, of course, we work with China. Now, of course, I want to add, Excellency, with China, we have a number of mechanisms and many areas of cooperation. And we cannot just see ASEAN-China relation only defined by the issues of South China Sea alone, okay?

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you. Thank you, Excellency. And I'll take the next round of questions. I see a hand right there. You already asked a question, didn't you? And I see a hand there, and I see a hand right here. So we start at the back. Yeah, we can start here.

FQ2: Hello, sir. My question is, what are the challenges that are currently faced by ASEAN in security and political fields? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: A question at the back. Okay, go ahead, go ahead.

FQ3: Excellency, ASEAN's five-point consensus does not seem to be working. So what is ASEAN's approach towards Myanmar at present? And how is it engaging with relevant stakeholders in Myanmar to de-escalate the political crisis?

Vijay Thakur Singh: And the question there.

MQ3: Hello, sir. Sir, there are a number of ASEAN-led mechanisms, like the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum, and ASEAN Defence Ministerial Meeting Plus, to foster regional trust and cooperation. So my question to you is, how do you assess the effectiveness of these mechanisms? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Excellency, floor is yours.

Kao Kim Hourn: Thank you very much. Well, of course, there's always challenges. I can admit, because to say we have no challenges, I think is to cheat ourselves. We always have some challenges.

In political security, of course, you can say Myanmar is one of the challenges we face in ASEAN. Myanmar has been -- what happened in Myanmar since February 2021, until today, there's a lot of impact of Myanmar on ASEAN's cooperation, on ASEAN community building, on ASEAN relations with our external partners, okay. And we're trying to manage this strategically, so that we keep our ASEAN community building moving forward.

Of course, also from Myanmar, you have seen people leaving Myanmar to other neighboring countries of Myanmar, but also to other ASEAN member states as well. And that's something that I think we see that has been happening. And of course, we need to address the issue of the Myanmar people, meaning that we have to do what we can to support Myanmar, particularly Myanmar people, I'm talking about Myanmar people.

The political dimension, of course, the challenge, of course, is how to make sure we are able to deal with the geopolitical dimension. There is a geopolitical dynamic that's taking place at the moment. And ASEAN, we do not want to be a proxy to any major, to any great powers. That's why ASEAN has to define its own priorities, ASEAN will have to continue to lead the ASEAN-led mechanism. And we have to work with all the great powers, all the great powers, because they are also ASEAN friends and partners. And it's not easy, as you know.

But of course, in terms of the security also, we have a number of non-traditional security challenges, right? Ranging from trafficking in persons, we still have an issue, I think, but we are working together to address this issue very effectively. I think that's why last year, under Indonesian Chairmanship, the leaders came out with the declaration to address, to assist our migrant workers, for example, and to make sure that they are not being taken advantage of on the one hand, but also to make sure also, the issue of trafficking in persons. But of course, also, there are many other challenges, including the impact of climate change. That's, of course, I think there will be a new, what I call, non-traditional security issue.

We have more now in terms of natural disasters today, but also the effect on the people, particularly people who are working in the environmental sector. Because climate change impacts heavily on the environmental sector, and we have a lot of people that will be impacted negatively.

In terms of 5PC, I don't think there's anything wrong with Five Point Consensus. In fact, I think this is a good reference point that ASEAN leaders have adopted. What we need is the cooperation from Myanmar authorities to work with ASEAN on the Five Point Consensus, because what we want is for Myanmar to take the lead. It's going to be a Myanmar-led, Myanmar-owned process. And ASEAN will continue to engage with Myanmar. And our leaders already said that by engaging with Myanmar, that does not mean we lend legitimacy to the regime in Naypyidaw, on the one hand, but also we have to engage with all the different stakeholders. And that's why when the Five Point Consensus is to engage through the inclusive political dialogue, and that's why we have for this year, in 2024, the new special envoy of ASEAN Chair on Myanmar, I can say, Alounkeo Kittikhoun, who has been actively -- only in the first six weeks engaging with the different stakeholders, those in power, but those also outside Myanmar, including NUG, for example. And so he just, in fact, briefed the UN Security Council just recently. And I think the Five Point Consensus is that what we need to do is to make sure that Myanmar is cooperating.

But I want to share with you that since February 2021, until for the very first time on January 29 this year, Myanmar finally decided to send its own representative, a non-political representative to the ASEAN Foreign Minister retreat. This for the first time that we see in Myanmar is responding to ASEAN, that when ASEAN say that they would not be able to have a political representative, only allow the non-political representative. That's for the first time that Myanmar is sending it.

So I think this is some new development. But also another development that Thailand and Myanmar working on another front for the humanitarian assistance. I think this is something that we work on in ASEAN right now, to focus on the people of Myanmar who have been affected by the situation inside the country. So we focus on how can we assist the Myanmar people. And of course, in Myanmar, there are three dimensions we talk about, humanitarian assistance, as you can see, Madam Ambassador. We talk about the people who have been affected by the regime since February 2021, the IDPs. We're looking at roughly about 2 million IDPs inside Myanmar who require basically about US$1 billion of assistance to address them.

Second, we have to address the impact of Cyclone Mocha that took place in May last year. There's still the impact still there, particularly the people and the communities. And then of course the work on the repatriation of the people from Bangladesh to Rakhine State, that's another issue. Of course, this is something that we are still looking at very closely.

Now of course coming back to the question on the ASEAN mechanism, how effective they are? I would say when you talk about how effective they are, we're looking at degrees, but certainly you're looking at what in this region? Are there other mechanisms in place like the East Asia Summit that are able to bring together the leaders to meet, discuss on issues that they believe are important to them. Of course, there are certain identified issues, but also, when they meet they can also raise any issues. And then what's important for ASEAN is that we are promoting a culture of dialogue and the habit of consultations, and of course constructive engagement. That's very important. Dialogue diplomacy is better than, I think, open conflict. That's what we need.

And in terms of, just to give an example, ASEAN-Plus Three, we have a lot of trade and investment in tourism and connectivity. This is benefiting ASEAN tremendously, the people. With the U.S. for example, we work with the U.S. The U.S. is the number one investor in ASEAN in terms of the total amount of foreign trade investment. China ranks second. So we bring a lot of investment through our cooperation.

Also, in terms of the volume of trade, I think how effective, I think depends on the interest, how we want to look at. But of course, also today we don't have open conflict. We are at peace, and that's why we continue to invest in this mechanism, meaning that as long as we discuss, as long we negotiate, as long we talk, I think it's better. And that's what ASEAN is doing right now through what we call the power of engagement. The power of engagement is the power of influence. I think that's important for us in ASEAN.

Vijay Thakur Singh: I know we are running out of time, but His Excellency, Secretary General, has agreed to take another round of questions. So, I recognise one hand here, one hand right at the back. And maybe I'll take one in the center here. Okay. You can start.

MQ4: Thank you, ma'am. Excellency, I have a question that is, ASEAN has Comprehensive Strategic Partnership level relationships with Australia, China, Japan, the U.S., along with India. What are the synergies you see in these five CSPs? And do you foresee that ASEAN will enter into a CSP-level relationship with other countries? If so, who may they be? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you. We could go here now, right here.

FQ4: Thank you, sir, for your invaluable insights. What in your opinion has been the key technical, economic, and political factors contributing to the greater success of ASEAN, compared to SAARC in fostering regional cooperation and achieving developmental objectives? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Okay. And one last, right there. Right there.

MQ5: Thank you, ma'am. I'm a student from South Asian University. My question is, how does ASEAN see Quad in the Indo-Pacific region, given its geographical centrality in the region? Being S.G. of ASEAN, do you wish to expand Quad as Quad Plus? Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: This is a question on Quad. So, Excellency, the floor is yours.

Kao Kim Hourn: Thank you very much. At the moment, yes, we have five CSPs. We have the U.S., Australia, India, China, and Japan. I think it means that we've been working together on many fronts, many areas of cooperation to be able to reach this level.

Of course, you asked about the synergies. Four out of the five are QUAD members, okay? And with the exception of China, the other four are QUAD members. We believe that as long as Quad supports ASEAN centrality and does not undermine ASEAN centrality. And, of course, we like to believe that it complements the work of ASEAN. And of course, what we have seen, the various statements put out by Quad has indicated Quad support in ASEAN community building, as in unity, as in centrality. And I think we take every word at face value.

Of course, Quad has its own roles, collectively and individually. And we don't know yet how Quad will evolve overtime. I think that remains to be seen. But at the same time, right now, we have Republic of Korea. We expect to become another CSP within this year. We have just received a request from the EU to upgrade the Strategic Partnership to also CSP. So we see this is coming up. We also have other countries’ requesting to become Sectoral Dialogue Partners and Development Partners for ASEAN. This is also something that we continue to work on as well.

So what I want to respond to this question is that, I think there are different levels of synergies that we can work with. And I think with Quad, this is something that we don't deal directly between ASEAN and Quad per se, but we work with each individual members of Quad.

On the political and technical factors that contribute to the success of ASEAN, I think ASEAN has a strong belief in ourselves, in working together. I'd like to say, and I think maybe my friends from ASEAN member states would agree, I'd like to say that ASEAN, we don't have the three no's. We don't have big brothers, big sisters. All ASEAN member states make the same equal contribution, right, to the operation of ASEAN. Doesn't matter if you are LDC or you are developed economy, it's the same amount of contribution. So we have no big brothers, no big sisters, that's the first one.

Second, we don't have, there's no core group in ASEAN, like the EU, right. There's no core group. Third, we don't have, we have no bloc within a bloc, okay. We have sub-regional cooperation in which they consider to be the building blocks of ASEAN community, but there's no block within a bloc. So that's why I think this is one of the, I would say, important factors that contribute to the trust building in ASEAN.

Of course, also, there are other factors that spell out in ASEAN Charter. The decision-making process by consensus is a key factor. Of course, there's a lot of critics out there that say decision-making by consensus is not working, but it is very important in terms of the process, how we see in ASEAN. Because once we reach a consensus, it is unbreakable. We have to be patient as we negotiate. I think that oftentimes it takes a little bit more time, but at the end of the day, once we have consensus, there's no way it can break us in on that. And we have complete unity.

Also, as you see, I want to add that another factor that has brought the success to ASEAN, is that I just keep mentioning the habit of consultation and the culture of dialogue. When we work together, meaning that we know each other well. And we also work at the comfort level of each other. And I think this culture that we've been working, the culture of engagement, has been there. That's why I think we don't consider ourselves as a regional organisation, we consider ourselves as an ASEAN community, a community that will work for the interests of people.

Finally, of course, based on Quad, I think the last question here, I'm going to come back briefly. Quad is one of the new mini-laterals that have been set up in the Indo-Pacific region. You have certainly, of course, AUKUS is another one. Then of course there are other mini-laterals that take place. Some are less significant than others. I think it's normal to have this taking place. But I think what's important to ASEAN is that as long as they do not undermine the role of ASEAN in the region, I think -- and of course as we have heard that they support ASEAN and they participate in the various mechanisms of ASEAN, I think that's all in the interest of ASEAN member states, ASEAN community, but also in the interest of our ASEAN external partners. Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you so much, Excellency, for taking a range of questions regarding from the membership of East Timor, to Myanmar, to Quad, to working of ASEAN. And I have not been able to take all the questions from the floor, but we've had a comprehensive discussion and we are running out of time. So may I take this opportunity to thank Secretary-General Dr. Kao Kim Hourn for coming to Sapru House and for delivering the 48th Sapru House Lecture. And we have all learned a lot more about ASEAN, its functioning and its priorities through your lecture. Thank you so much, Excellency.

Kao Kim Hourn: Thank you very much, Excellency. Thank you very much for the opportunity.

M: Thank you, sir, for your lecture. As a token of our gratitude, we from ICWA would like to give you a book as a memento.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us today evening for the 48th Sapru House Lecture. I request all of you to join us for high tea at the foyer. Thank you.

Vijay Thakur Singh: Thank you, Excellency.

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