Indian Council of World Affairs

2022 marked the 50^th year of bilateral relations between China and Japan. A major irritant in bilateral relations is the issue of maritime sovereignty over the East China Sea which has remained a point of contestation in bilateral relations.

The East China Sea is part of the Western Pacific Ocean and located directly offshore East China. The uninhabited island chain of Senkaku is made up of five islands and three reefs. The Senkaku Islands are a group of islands under the jurisdiction of Okinawa Prefecture, which include Uotsuri, Kitakojima, Minamikojima, Kuba, Taisho, Okinokitaiwa, Okinominamiiwa and Tobise Islands.[i] According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates, the East China Sea has between 1 and 2 trillion cubic feet natural gas reserves.

https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/senkaku/index.html

This paper attempts to examine the East China Sea dispute and its implications for the Indo-Pacific Region.

Chinese and Japanese Claims in the region

The dispute in the East China Sea region has been brewing for a long time. China claims the region on a historical basis. While in Japan, the claims are based on terra nullius (territory belonging to no one).

Chinese Claims

According to China, Japan secretly included Diaoyu islands in its territory at the end of the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895. Japan then forced China to sign the Treaty of Shimonoseki (1895) and cede to Japan, the island of Formosa (Taiwan), together with Diaoyu and all other islands belonging to the island of Formosa. In December 1941, China declared war against Japan and called for the abrogation of all treaties between China and Japan.

In December 1943, the Cairo Declaration stated that “all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese, such as Manchuria, Formosa [Taiwan] and the Pescadores, shall be restored to the Republic of China. Japan will also be expelled from all other territories which she has taken by violence and greed.” In July 1945, the Potsdam Proclamation stated in Article 8: “The terms of the Cairo Declaration shall be carried out and Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku and such minor islands as we determine.” On September 2, 1945, the Japanese government accepted the Potsdam Proclamation. China claims Diaoyu was returned to China after the Second World War.

On 8 September 1951, Japan, the US and a number of other countries signed the Treaty of San Francisco, from which with China was excluded. The Treaty placed the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands under United Nations’ trusteeship, with the US as the sole administering authority. This Treaty did not include Diaoyu Islands. The United States Civil Administration of the Ryukyu (USCAR) issued Ordinances in 1952 and1953, arbitrarily expanding its jurisdiction to include Diaoyu Islands. On 17 June 1971, Japan and the US signed the Okinawa Reversion Agreement, which provided that any and all powers of administration over the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands and Diaoyu would be “returned” to Japan. On 8 March 1972, Japan issued the “Basic View on the Sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands”.^[ii] China objected to the Japanese position on the Diaoyu Islands. However, as China and Japan moved ahead in normalising relations, they decided to leave the “issue of Diaoyu to be resolved later.”

In 1992, China enacted the “Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone”. Article 2 of the law reads: The PRC’s territorial land includes the mainland and its offshore islands, Taiwan and the various affiliated islands, including Diaoyu Islands, Penghu (Pescadores) Islands, Dongsha (Pratas) Islands, Xisha (Paracels) Islands, Nansha (Spratly) Islands and other islands that belong to the People's Republic of China.[iii] This law is the basis on which China is asserting claims in the East China Sea and the South China Sea over the last three decades.

In 2009, China passed the “Law of the People's Republic of China on the Protection of Offshore Islands”, which was adopted at the 12th Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Eleventh National People's Congress on 26 December 2009.[iv] On 10 September 2012, the Chinese government issued a statement announcing the baselines of the territorial sea adjacent to Diaoyu and its affiliated islands of China.[v] In 2012, China published a White Paper titled “Diaoyu Dao, an Inherent Territory of China”. The paper argues that the Diaoyu/ Senkaku Islands have been an inseparable part of China since the ancient times. China believes that Japan should stop all activities in the region.  It further stated that (China) has the capability and confidence to defend its territory sovereignty.[vi]

Since the 18^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, with Xi Jinping as the President, China has stepped up its movements in the East China Sea. He stressed “a battle to safeguard (China’s) interests over the Diaoyu Islands”. On 23 November 2013, China established its first Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea region.[vii]

Reportedly, on 24 February 2016, in a closed meeting of the party's Central Military Commission, Xi Jinping called for securing Beijing’s interests over the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands and the disputed South China Sea. He emphasised “achieving that goal represents a “heavy historical responsibility” for his generation. Thereafter, the Chinese military started stepping up its presence in the region. He also said that “if we abandon the ocean, (China) will decline”.[viii]

Japanese Claim

Since 1885, the agencies of the Okinawa Prefecture of Japan have been surveying the Senkaku Islands. The surveys highlighted that the Senkaku Islands had been uninhabited and there is no evidence to prove the control of the Qing Dynasty of China over the Islands. Based on this confirmation, the Government of Japan made a Cabinet decision on 14 January 1895, to erect markers on the islands to formally incorporate the Senkaku Islands into the territory of Japan.[ix] The Senkaku Islands are not part of Formosa (Taiwan) or the Pescadores Islands, which were ceded to Japan from the Qing Dynasty under Article II of the Treaty of Shimonoseki.[x] Further, the Senkaku Islands were not included in the territory that Japan renounced under Article 2 of the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951, which legally defined the territory of Japan after World War II. Under Article 3 of the Treaty, the islands were placed under the administration of the US as part of the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands. The Senkaku Islands are included in the areas whose administrative rights were reverted to Japan under the Agreement between Japan and the US Concerning the Ryukyu Islands and the Daito Islands that entered into force in 1972.[xi]

It may be noted that the issue of sovereignty over the East China Sea came to the forefront in 1969. In 1969, the United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) mentioned that the region between Taiwan and Japan “appears to have great promise as a future oil province of the world”. Taiwan made its first claim over the islands in 1971, after ECAFE conducted a survey.[xii] China started making claims in the region a few months later.

The dispute once again came to the limelight when the Japanese government announced the nationalisation of three islands. The Japanese government decided to purchase and nationalise three of the five islands on 11 September 2012, from Kunioko Kurihara. The Kurihara family had bought the islands in 1972 from another Japanese family that had controlled them since the 1890s.[xiii]

Implications for the Indo-Pacific Region

China has increased its aggression in the region. On 10 and 29 January 2023, twice, a Chinese flotilla entered the waters around Senkaku this year.[xiv] China has been violating and entering the Japanese water regularly.

Reportedly, China has also improved its remote sensing capabilities in the region. According to the Blue Book of China, remote sensing has been improved in areas such as the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, the South China Sea’s Scarborough Shoal, Macclesfield Bank, the Paracels and Spratly Islands and the surrounding waters. The Blue Book also claims that China is now capable of remotely sensing all seas and islands under its administration.[xv] China’s most advanced stealth fighter, J-20, is playing an important role in intercepting planes over the East China Sea.[xvi] Notably, the region is important for China because it is close to the Chinese coastline. China can increase the effectiveness of its air defence system against any US military operations launched from bases in Japan and Guam by constructing a radar detection station on the island of Uotsurijima.[xvii]

With increasing Chinese assertiveness in the region, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in an interaction with the media, said “The situation around Japan is becoming increasingly severe with attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and the activation of North Korea’s nuclear and missile activities”. [xviii] Earlier at the Shangri-La Dialogue 2022 in Singapore, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had stated, “In the East China Sea, where Japan is located, unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in violation of international law are continuing. Japan is taking a firm stand against such attempts”.[xix]

Recently, with the increasing tensions in the region, the US and Japan have deepened their strategic alliance and outlined actions in a joint statement. Those actions include plans to reorganise US Marine Corps units based in Okinawa and new agreements to cooperate on space and advanced military technologies. On 11 January 2023, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, took part in the 2+2 talks with Japanese Foreign Minister, Hayashi Yoshimasa, and Japanese Defense Minister, Hamada Yasukazu.[xx]

With the increasing significance of the region, the number of maritime exercises has also increased in the region, especially in the last two years.[xxi] China and Russia conducted joint naval exercise called “Joint Sea 2022” from 21-27 December 2022.[xxii]

Will China attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea?

It is unlikely that China will try to alter the status quo in the region. At this point, the focus is on Taiwan. At the 20^th Party Congress, Xi Jinping said that “Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is, for the Party, a historic mission and an unshakable commitment.[xxiii] Further, the increasing Chinese aggression over Taiwan has deepened Japan’s sense of vulnerability. Hence, Japan has expanded its defence spending to catch up with the shift in the regional balance of power. [xxiv]

In a historic shift from the post-World War II international order, Japan has changed its pacifist position. Wang Qi, a researcher of East Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, has said that “Japan has broken out of its six decades of pacifist status”.[xxv] Japan is voicing its concerns over the Chinese postures in the region more frequently. On 2 February 2023, The Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang discussed the East China Sea. Hayashi stated “serious concerns about the developments around the East China Sea including “increasingly active military activities near Japan”. [xxvi]

The contestation in the East China Sea is also about national status and influence that is not just limited to Asia but affects the global stage, pitching the two most economically and militarily powerful states in the region against each other.[xxvii] The East China Sea is part of the first island chain comprising of the Kuril Islands, the Japanese Archipelago, the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, northwest Philippines and ending at Borneo. It forms the first line of defence for China. Any unforeseen situation in the region, will also disrupt Chinese strategies and the movements of the ship tankers in the region.

Conclusion

The East China is a region of high strategic value. Overall, the geopolitical priorities identified by Japan, China and the US towards the Senkaku Islands have led to an increase in the military presence in the region. Although the focus is currently on Taiwan, tensions are simmering in the Indo-Pacific region. Any miscalculations in the region can have serious repercussions for all sides. The Senkaku Island dispute will remain a friction point in the Indo-Pacific region.

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*Dr. Teshu Singh is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal

End Notes

[i] About the Senkaku, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/senkaku/index.html Accessed 15 December 2022

[ii] Full Text: Diaoyu Dao, an Inherent Territory of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/diaodao_665718/201209/t20120926_701830.html , Accessed 15 December 2022.

[iii]Law on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone of February 25, 1992, https://www.un.org/depts/los/LEGISLATIONANDTREATIES/PDFFILES/CHN_1992_Law.pdf  Accessed 22 December 2022.

[iv]Law of the People's Republic of China on the Protection of Offshore Islands, http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Law/2011-02/16/content_1620762.htm Accessed 25 December 2022.

[v] Statement of the Government of the People’s Republic of China on the Baseline of the Territorial Sea of  Diaoyu Dao and the Affiliated Islands, https://www.un.org/depts/los/LEGISLATIONANDTREATIES/PDFFILES/DEPOSIT/chn_mzn89_2012_e.pdf,  Accessed 12 December 2022.

[vi]  An inherent territory of China, China Daily, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201209/26/WS5a2f5536a3108bc8c67233d1_2.html  Accessed 15 December 2022

[vii]Special: China's Air Defense Identification Zone Triggers Mixed Response, China Daily, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-11/27/content_17135438.htm Accessed 26 December 2022.

[viii]Xi Vowed to Secure Interests Over Senkakus as China's Historical Duty, Kyodo News, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/10/41edeefb5328-xi-vowed-to-secure-interests-over-senkakus-as-chinas-historical-duty.html Accessed 26 December 2022.

[ix] Senkaku Island Q and A, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/senkaku/qa_1010.html#q1 Accessed 29 December 2022.

[x] ibid

[xi]SCMP Reporter, Explainer | Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/explained/article/2187161/explained-diaoyu/senkaku-islands-dispute Accessed 29 December 2022.

[xii] Tadashi Ikeda, Getting Senkaku History Right, the Diplomat, November 26, 2013,

http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/getting-senkaku-history-right/ Accessed 30 December 2022.

[xiii]Kiyoshi Takenaka, Japan buys disputed islands, China sends patrol ships, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china-idUSBRE88A0GY20120911, Accessed 3 January 2023.

[xiv] Matthew M. Burke and Keishi Koja, Tokyo Protests to Beijing after Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Approach Senkakus Again, Stars and Stripes, https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2023-01-30/japan-china-senkaku-coast-guard-8934660.html, Accessed 4 January 2023.

[xv] Sagar Kar, Beijing Has Increased Satellite Monitoring Of Disputed Islands, Says Report, https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/china/beijing-has-increased-satellite-monitoring-of-disputed-islands-says-report-articleshow.html, Accessed 5 January 2023.

[xvi] Liu Zhen, China Outlines J-20 Stealth Fighter’s Role in Intercepting Foreign Warplanes by Releasing Footage that may Show Rare Encounter with F-35, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3207293/china-outlines-j-20-stealth-fighters-role-intercepting-foreign-warplanes-releasing-footage-may-show, Accessed 6 January 2023.

[xvii] The centrality of the Senkaku Archipelago for Geostrategic Balances in the East China Sea, Special Eurasia, https://www.specialeurasia.com/2021/12/21/senkaku-archipelag-geostratgy/, Accessed 7 January 2023.

[xviii] AFP, ‘East Asia Could be Next Ukraine’, Japan’s Kishida Tells G7 Leaders, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3206863/east-asia-could-be-next-ukraine-japans-kishida-tells-g7-leaders, Accessed 5 January 2023.

[xix] Keynote Address by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue,

 https://japan.kantei.go.jp/101_kishida/statement/202206/_00002.html, Accessed 23 January 2023.

[xx] China Snubs US Military Outreach Ahead of Expected Blinken Visit, Voice of Asia,  https://www.voanews.com/a/china-snubs-us-military-outreach-ahead-of-expected-blinken-visit-/6910896.html

[xxi]Major Exercises in East China Sea and those for Remote Island Defense, https://www.mod.go.jp/en/d_architecture/major-exercises/major_exercises_01.html, Accessed 25 January 2023.

[xxii] China, Russia Concludes Joint Naval Exercise, http://eng.mod.gov.cn/focus/2022-12/28/content_4929337.htm, Accessed 16 January 2023.

[xxiii]Full Text of the Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202210/t20221025_10791908.html, Accessed 26 January 2023.

[xxiv] Richard Heydarian, Japan’s Military Build-Up Driven by Fears Over China’s Rise and Doubts About US Alliance, South China Morning Post,  https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3207874/japans-military-build-driven-fears-over-chinas-rise-and-doubts-about-us-alliance , Accessed 30 January 2023.

[xxv]Wang Xu, US-Japan Pact May Increase Global Tension, https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202301/16/WS63c48616a31057c47eba9b43.html, Accessed 28 January 2023.

[xxvi] China, Japan discuss concerns over disputed East China Sea islands, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-hopes-japan-can-stop-right-wing-forces-provoking-disputes-east-china-sea-2023-02-02/, Accessed 4 February 2023.

[xxvii] Cary Huang, Diaoyu Islands Dispute About Resources Not Land, South China Morning Post,  https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1096774/diaoyu-islands-dispute-about-resources-not-land, Accessed 29 January 2023.