Indian Council of World Affairs

The geostrategic location of Taiwan is of immense importance to the Indo-Pacific regionas the developments around the Taiwan Strait affect the countries in the region.

On 26 March 2023, Honduras severed its formal ties with Taiwan and the number of diplomatic allies of Taiwan has shrunk to13. Taiwan has been jostling for international space in the diplomatic community. As the number of allies are dwindling, Tsai Ing-wen visited the Republic of Guatemala and Belize. She made a stopover visit to the US (New York and Los Angeles). In addition, the leader of the opposition party of Taiwan- Kuomintang (KMT) Ma Ying- jeou visited China for 12 days in an unofficial visit. The two recent visits from Taiwan have created disturbance in the Cross-Strait Relations.

The paper aims to analyses the strategic implications of the two visits.

Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to China

Ma Ying- jeou visited China from 27 March -7 April 2023 for 12 days in an unofficial visit along with a delegation of students as well as his family members to several Chinese cities.He was elected as the President of Taiwan in 2008 and re-elected in 2012. In 2015, he met Xi Jinping in Singapore. The 2015 meeting was the zenith of rapprochement between China and Taiwan under the KMT rule.

During his stay, Ma Ying-jeou visited the Sun Yat-senMausoleumin Nanjing and the tomb of the KMT general Zhang Zizhong in Chongqing. He also paid a visit to the school attended by his mother. He visited the China Railway Construction Heavy Industry (CRCHI) and SANY Heavy Industry[i]. In his speech at Hunan University, he also mentioned that “Taiwan is part of the sacred territory of the People’s Republic of China” made in the preamble to the PRC’s 1982 Constitution. Taiwan’s ruling party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has strongly criticised his visit and accused him of undermining Taiwan’s sovereignty and “betraying Taiwan”[ii]. An editorial in Taipei Times has criticised Ma’s speech at China’s Hunan University in China for his pro-China stance[iii]. 

Ma Ying- jeou is trying to re-create history in Cross-Strait relations.His visit is significant in a number of ways. He is the first Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman and the first former Taiwanese President after 1949 to visit China. He visited China after the dates of general elections were announced in Taiwan. Notably, KMT has lost the last two presidential elections.Ma’s visit can also create latitude for the KMT[iv]. His visithas political implications for Taiwan. During his visit, Ma emphasised that people on both sides have the same ancestors. He emphasised that KMT has always advocated for closer ties with China while the DPP has stood for Taiwan’s sovereignty which is independent of China. KMT is also making efforts to project itself as a peace-making party so that it can draw some votes in the 2024 elections[v]. Ma’s visit has reinforced KMT’s position towards China.

Tsai Ing-wen’s stopover visit to the US

Tsai Ing-wen made a diplomatic visit themed “Meeting Democratic Partners, Fostering Shared Prosperity” from 29 March to 7 April 2023, to two diplomatic allies, Republic of Guatemala and Belize. During both the onward and return journeys, she made transit stops in the US. Enroute to Guatemala and Belize, on 30 March 2023, Tsai Ing-wen transited through New York and attended an event held by the Hudson Institute. At the Institute, she received the Global Leadership Award. While returning, she visited Los Angeles and met with Speaker Kevin McCarthy of the US House of Representatives and a bipartisan group of congressional leaders at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. After the meeting, Tsai Ing-wen and Speaker McCarthy made a joint press appearance, in which she thanked the US for its ‘unwavering support’ to Taiwan which ‘reassured the people of Taiwan that they were not isolated’ and in which she emphasised the need to ‘defend the peaceful status quo’.  This was her seventh visit to the US since taking office in 2016 as the President.

On 1 March 2023, the US has also approved the USD 619 million worth of missiles for Taiwan’s F-16 fleet in a new arms deal with Taiwan. This is the ninth arm sale under Biden[vi].

Reactions from China

As a reaction to the arms sale, China has sanctioned Raytheon Technologies Corporation and Lockheed Martin Corporation because they are the main contractors for the planned package[vii].

China used the pretext of the visit of Tsai Ing-wen to the US and held military drills along the Taiwan Strait. The Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) carried out “Joint Sword” military exercises from 8-10 April 2023. This was the second intense military exercise by China after Nancy Pelosi’s visit in 2022. The exercises focused on testing the PLA’s capability to seize control of sea, air, and information under the support of the joint combat system. There were also joint anti-submarine drills with cooperation from police patrol boats. A Chinese warship in the seas facing the Taiwan Strait began live-fire drills as China launched military exercises. As part of the exercises, the Type 052D destroyer Taiyuan came within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan[viii]. 

China used itsShandong aircraft carriers for the first time. Shandong is the first domestically built aircraft of China and second aircraft carrier of PLAN after Liaoning. Four J-15 fighter jets had crossed into the south-eastern portion of the island’s Air Defence Identification Zone[ix]. According to the Japanese Defence Ministry, Shandong-led flotillawere spotted 230 kilometres (145 miles), south of Okinawa Prefecture’s Miyako Island. Reportedly, the carrier had conducted approximately 120 landings and take-offs by fighter jets and helicopters over a period of three days in the area[x].  According to an infographic posted on Twitter by the Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, the USS Nimitz (aircraft carrier of the US Navy) circled its position, keeping a safe distance from the PLA’s Shandong aircraft carrier[xi].

On the third day of the military drills, China simulated “sealing off” the Taiwan exercise[xii]. Chinese nuclear-capable H-6K bombers “with live ammunition” and supported by fighter jets and early warning and jamming aircraft carried out “multi-wave simulated strikes on important targets on Taiwan,”[xiii].

The PLA Eastern Theater Command also released a computer-generated animation depicting its drill. It depicted that conventional missiles and long-range rocket launchers on the land, warplanes in the air and warships at sea simultaneously launched attacks from multiple locations of the island[xiv]. 

According to the Taiwanese Ministry of Defence, on 8 April 2023, a total of 71 CCP aircraft sorties comprising J-10, J-11, and J-16 jet planes, Y-20 jet-tankers, H-6K bombers, and KJ-500 air warningswere detected, of which 45 sorties crossed the median line and entered the southwest airspace. A total of nine vessel sorties were also discovered. The Ministry of National Defence of Taiwan emphasised that the CCP is deliberately creating tension around theTaiwan Strait, aiming to only severely upset the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region, and bring about regional unrest[xv]. 

Responding to the military drills, in an interview on Fox News, US Senator Lindsey Graham called on the US to keep an open mind about sending troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. He said that China’s military exercises over the past few days are “setting conditions to blockade Taiwan in the coming months or weeks.” He added, “we need to respond forcefully”[xvi].

https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-chinas-april-2023-military-exercises-around-taiwan/

Besides the military drill, China banned two US institutions that Tsai Ing-wen had visited. The two institutions are the Hudson Institute and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. They are banned from having exchanges, cooperation and other activities with any individuals, universities or institutions in Beijing’s territory, including Hong Kong and Macau.Further escalating the tensions, China’s Ministry of Commerce launched a “trade barrier investigation”. China has launched an investigation to probe import restrictions that Taiwan has imposed on 2455 types of products from China[xvii].  The investigation will take six to nine months[xviii].

Conclusion

The two visits from Taiwan have given China a pretext to launch the military drills.Seemingly, by conducting the military drill and releasing computer simulated images, China is trying to deter Taiwan from hosting a future high-level meeting from the US. The military drills were conducted when no high dignitaries were visiting China. It may be noted that the military started only after Macron (5-8 April 2023)left China and the drills were over before Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva started his four-day state visit to China on 12 April 2023.

The issue of Taiwan is now increasingly finding resonance in the larger geopolitics.Japan PM Fumio Kishida has warned that “Ukraine today might be the East Asia of tomorrow”. Japan has stressed the importance of peace in the Taiwan Strait after China held the three-day exercise.French President Emmanuel Macron ruffled feathers by saying that the EU needs to have its own policy on Taiwan and shouldavoid following the US agenda on the matter which led to G7 countries subsequently, reaffirming their support for Taiwan at the G7 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Japan on 16-18 April 2023, in a show of unity.

Tensions are brewing in the Cross-Strait relations. In the event of escalation, the consequences are likely to be much more severe than the Russia-Ukraine conflict because Taiwan is deeply integrated into the global supply chains. Taiwan manufactures 90 per cent of the world’s semiconductors. A study by the Rhodium group, estimates that if there is a blockade of Taiwan, it would mean a global annual economic loss of USD 2 trillion (3 per cent of global GDP). In addition, the current development in the Cross-Strait relations will jeopardise the already tense US-China relations. Overall, the developments in the Taiwan Strait will severely affect the security of the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

*****

*Dr. Teshu Singh is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Yang Sheng.“Ma Ying-jeou says mainland's development in all fields very fast, 'some are even undreamed of'”, Global Times, April 2, 2023.https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1288439.shtml(Accessed on April5, 2023).

[ii] Lu Chia-jung and Kay Liu.“Ex-president tells Chinese students ROC Constitution covers Taiwan, mainland”,Focus Taiwan,April 2, 2023. https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202304020009(Accessed on April 5, 2023).

[iii] “EDITORIAL: Ma needs a history lesson”, Taipei Times, April 5, 2023.https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2023/04/05/2003797332(Accessed on April 5, 2023).

[iv] Thompson Chau.“Taiwan's Ma Ying-jeou lands in China as Tsai Ing-wen heads to U.S.”, Nikkie Asia, March 27, 2023. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-tensions/Taiwan-s-Ma-Ying-jeou-lands-in-China-as-Tsai-Ing-wen-heads-to-U.S(Accessed on April 9, 2023).

[v] William Yang.“Taiwan-China: What's behind ex-leader Ma Ying-jeou's visit?”,DW, March 29, 2023.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-china-whats-behind-ex-leader-ma-ying-jeous-visit/a-65168481(Accessed on April 9,2023).

[vi] Lawerence Chung.“US approves new US$619 million sale of missiles and military equipment to Taiwan”, South China Morning Post, March 2, 2023. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3212051/us-approves-new-us619-million-sale-missiles-and-military-equipment-taiwan(Accessed on April 10, 2023).

[vii] Doug Cameron.“U.S. Approves Potential Taiwan Arms Sale Worth $619 Million Amid China Tension”, The Wall Street Journal, March 2, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-approves-potential-taiwan-arms-sale-worth-619-million-6e97a909(Accessed on April13, 2023).

[viii] Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Samantha Lu, Hannah Price & Mathew Slade. “Tracking China’s April 2023 Military Exercises around Taiwan”,China Power, April 10, 2023.https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-chinas-april-2023-military-exercises-around-taiwan/(Accessed on April 10, 2023).

[ix] Brad Lendon.“China appears to simulate first aircraft carrier strike on Taiwan”, CNN, April 11, 2023. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/10/asia/china-taiwan-military-drills-aircraft-carrier-strike-intl-hnk/index.html(Accessed on April 13, 2023).

[x] Jesse Johnson.“China ends military drills after practicing blockade of Taiwan”, the Japan Times, April 10, 2023. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/04/10/asia-pacific/china-taiwan-military-exercises-day-three/, (Accessed on April 13, 2023).

[xi] Minnie Chan,US-China military stand-off near Taiwan ‘no reason’ for Beijing to relax its guard, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3217300/us-china-military-stand-near-taiwan-no-reason-beijing-relax-its-guard?utm_medium=email&utm_source=cm&utm_campaign=enlz-today_international&utm_content=20230418&tpcc=enlz-today_international&UUID=11ce45a9-6e77-4f2f-87fa00207e29660a&next_article_id=3217430&article_id_list=3217450,3217439,3217300,3217430,3217419,3217417,3217451,3217427&tc=8&CMCampaignID=7833ca23cbe1979a9c0c807aec20d368 , (Accessed on  April 18, 2023).

[xii] Liu Xuanzun and Guo Yuandan.“Shandong aircraft carrier group hosts J-15 fighter sorties on final day of PLA drills encircling Taiwan island, forming blockade”, Global Times, April 10, 2023.https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1288803.shtml(Accessed on April 13, 2023).

[xiii] Jesse Johnson.“China ends military drills after practicing blockade of Taiwan”, the Japan Times, April 10, 2023. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/04/10/asia-pacific/china-taiwan-military-exercises-day-three/(Accessed on April 13, 2023).

[xiv] Liu Xuanzun and Guo Yuandan.“PLA conducts mock strikes on Taiwan island on 2nd day of encirclement drills”, Global Times, April 9, 2023. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1288744.shtml(Accessed on April 12, 2023).

[xv] Press Release. “The Ministry of National Defense issues a press release about reports that “Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced it will carry out military exercises around the periphery of Taiwan, and the Armed Forces shall continue to strengthen its vigilance” (April 8, 2023)”,Ministry of National Defense, Republic of China, April 8, 2023.  https://www.mnd.gov.tw/english/Publish.aspx?title=News%20Channel&SelectStyle=Defense%20News%20&p=81319(Accessed on April 13, 2023).

[xvi] Liu Tzu-hsuan.“US senator ‘willing to fight for Taiwan’”,Taipei Times, April 11, 2023.https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/11/2003797699(Accessed on April 13, 2023).

[xvii] Chen Cheng-hui, China unveils probe of Taiwan’s ‘trade barriers’, Taipei Times, April 13, 2023 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/13/2003797835(Accessed on April 14, 2023).

[xviii] Ralph Jennings and Kandy Wong.“Mainland China launches probe into Taiwan’s ‘trade barriers’ affecting 2,400 products”, South China Morning Post, April 12, 2023.https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3216789/mainland-china-launches-probe-taiwans-trade-barriers-affecting-2455-products?utm_medium=email&utm_source=cm&utm_campaign=enlz-today_international&utm_content=20230412&tpcc=enlz-today_international&UUID=11ce45a9-6e77-4f2f-87fa-00207e29660a&next_article_id=3216798&article_id_list=3216789,3216798,3216777,3216788,3216745,3216719,3216794,3216786&tc=4&CMCampaignID=e27df9d6350f15823687112053a9fd19(Accessed on April 13,2023).