Introduction
The North African region has witnessed tremendous geopolitical changes following the Ukraine conflict. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that “the Russian invasion would fundamentally reshape the global economy, which is already suffering from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.”[i] In the region, which was already faced with internal conflicts, political instability, and economic stress, the Ukraine crisis has produced asymmetrical consequences for the countries in the region due to supply chain disruption.
Libya has been suffering from a protracted conflict between eastern and western factions in the country for over a decade, which has not allowed the establishment of a unified government. During the Ukraine conflict, Libya faced a food crisis that it could not deal with due to the ruling factions’ lack of a collective approach. Tunisia is facing political instability and economic crisis, which is compounded by the Ukraine conflict because of the rise of food and fuel prices, while Egypt is handling the implications of the structural reforms that aimed to cut the subsidies in food and fuel to invest in megaprojects, ultimately weakening purchasing power. The Ukraine conflict further increased Egypt's food and fuel prices, spiraling the government's economic stress. Morocco was politically stable but faced food and fuel crises due to the conflict. Algeria, which has hydrocarbon resources, did not face an energy crisis, though it faced a food crisis during the Ukraine conflict because it failed to meet the demands for edible oil and fats. The countries in the region are also facing threats to their national security due to the rise of extreme group and also because of the greater engagement of the external actors that have heightened conflict in the Western Sahara. In this context, the countries in the region faced challenges due to the political and security conflict and the lack of energy and food security. Against this backdrop, the paper aims to identify the recent trends that are impacting the geopolitics of the North African region.
Conflict and Security Dynamics
The Ukraine conflict has increased the fluidity of alliance-making in international relations. The North African region is also witnessing geopolitical fluidity concerning the engagement of the regional countries with external actors such as Russia, the USA, China, Israel and European countries. The region is unstable due to the Western Sahara conflict[ii] and at the heart of this conflict are Algeria and Morocco, take opposing positions driven by the respecting countries security and strategic interests. Rabat is purchasing an increasing number of military equipments from the USA and Israel after the inception of the Abraham Accords, while Algeria is purchasing more weapons from Russia and China.
On October 30, 2023, Russia rejected the draft resolution of the UNSC on the renewal of the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), introduced by the USA, claiming that it was unbalanced and did not incorporate the changes it had proposed.[iii] In international media, Russia, along with several African (Angola and Namibia) and Latin American countries (Cuba, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela), is seen as pro-Polisario. In contrast, France, the USA, Israel, and many Arab and Western African governments support Morocco.[iv] China, on the other hand, supported the MINURSO for fulfilling its mandate and expected that the parties would strengthen cooperation to enable the Mission to deliver its mandate.
Besides, Libya, which has a 989 km-long border with Algeria, remains unstable due to the ongoing conflict between the eastern and western political factions in the country. The competing political factions, the presence of the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the profound geo-political rivalries have complicated the security situation in Libya. Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt are concerned about the ‘spillover’ from their neighbor’s political instability. The presence of foreign soldiers and mercenaries are complicating the prospects of political stability in Libya. Following the breakdown of the energy cooperation between Russia and European Union member states, Russia is interested in increasing its influence in Libya to prevent it from becoming an alternative energy source for Europe. The Wagner Group is in close collaboration with Khalifa Haftar, who controls eastern Libya.
Energy Security Dynamics
Energy security is another important area that has increased the concerns of the North African countries. The Ukraine conflict has strengthened the positions of the hydrocarbon and oil-rich countries such as Algeria and Libya while exposing the energy-poor states such as Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt to economic vulnerabilities.[v] In this context, the impact of the Ukraine conflict remained uneven on the North African region. Following the Ukraine conflict, the European Union (EU) decided to phase out oil imports from Russia. In reaction, Russia cut natural gas supplies to the EU countries. The hydrocarbon-rich Algeria witnessed an immense opportunity as European countries looked to replace Russian energy sources. Algeria, which pumps gas directly to Spain and Italy via undersea pipelines, had hosted a string of top European officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, who sought to find alternatives to Russian energy supplies.[vi] Besides, Libya also benefitted from the new opportunity as Europe looked for alternative energy sources. In January 2023, Libya’s National Oil Corporation[vii] and Italy’s Eni signed an $ 8 billion gas production deal.
The Ukraine conflict has added pressures to the economies of Tunisia and Egypt, which are primarily dependent on regional and global actors for energy resources. According to Fitch, “As a net oil importer, Tunisia is particularly sensitive to rising energy prices which may affect key sectors such as manufacturing and transport.”[viii] Germany has supported Tunisia in developing its National Hydrogen Strategy. In May 2023, Italy, Austria, and Germany agreed to develop a European Hydrogen Corridor from Tunisia to Italy alongside the gas transit.
Morocco has also intensified the diversification toward renewable energy sources following the Ukraine conflict. It is emerging as a hub for transporting gas through two existing pipelines, the Morocco-Europe Gas Pipeline[ix] and the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline Project (NMGP). Both projects are part of strengthening Morocco’s role as a ‘transit’ hub for Europe and to meet its domestic needs. However, Rabat faced challenges in terms of meeting its crude oil requirements due to the conflict. Besides, Rabat is promoting the creation of another pipeline that would connect Morocco to Europe after crossing more than 10 West African countries, including Mauritania and Senegal. Morocco has enjoyed political stability that ensured its commitment to supply renewable energy to Europe. Notably, the development of the Noor Solar Plants in Ouarzazate has signified Morocco as a green hub.[x]
The global energy crisis has also created policy reversals, with many countries in the region now pursuing renewable energy to meet their energy needs. In this context, countries such as Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt have announced their intention to reduce emission and an increase in renewable energy production, provided that adequate financing is available from the European Green Deal.[xi]
Food Security Dynamics
The North African region’s current food crisis is precipitated by the local and global economic shocks brought on by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic 2020 and the ongoing Ukraine conflict. North Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including rising sea levels, increased droughts, desertification, and extreme weather events, all of which will affect the region’s water and food security. The region’s main vulnerability is its high dependency on cereal grain imports for human consumption and animal feed. In households across the region, the food crisis is felt most acutely in the price of bread.[xii] The region relied on Russia and Ukraine for food products. Ukraine conflict has disrupted Ukraine’s food and agricultural output, contributing to “a massive food insecurity crisis.” Higher food prices and limited fertilizer and commodity availability have created economic, public health, and political challenges in the region.
Due to the Ukraine conflict, food insecurity has been exacerbated in Tunisia because it imports more than half of its needs.[xiii] Tunisia had signed a deal with the European Union in June 2023 that aimed to strengthen their cooperation on sustainable agriculture, resilience of food systems, and food security, including to the benefit of enhancing cereal systems.[xiv]
Libya faced the challenges to meet its food security. The Ukraine conflict increased Libya's vulnerabilities because it was deeply dependent on Russia and Ukraine for food grains. The disruption of the supply chain raised food prices, forcing many to cut back on their daily food consumption.[xv] The Black Sea Grain Initiative[xvi] in 2022 proved crucial for mitigating some of the impacts since it provided Libya with more than 400 thousand tons of grains from Ukraine, which was terminated in July 2023. The only option for Libya is the utilization of its oil revenues for sourcing new suppliers of cereals and reinstating a subsidy system.
Algeria was more dependent on Russia in edible oil and fats category products. As a result, Algeria suffered from double-digit inflation, mainly hitting food staples whose prices were liberalized in 2021 by removing food and energy subsidies. Recently, Algeria created social safety programs targeting people experiencing poverty. Also, Algeria does not depend on Russia or Ukraine regarding food grains, which it imports from France. Furthermore, as a significant gas exporting country, rising gas prices can reduce its high dependence on oils and fats from Russia.[xvii]
Egypt suffered from reduced tourism inflows, higher food prices, and more significant financing challenges due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict.[xviii] Besides, Egypt imported 70 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. In order to become self-reliant, Egypt planned to expand wheat cultivation by the end of 2024, which however, does not ease immediate vulnerabilities. Water security is another concern due to the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt has also launched the Nexus of Water, Food, and Energy program, facing challenges securing the necessary financing.
The ongoing Ukraine conflict has also threatened Morocco’s food security because it relied on food imports. The disrupted supply chain resulted in the scarcity of food products and fertilizer. In Morocco, the risk might go beyond price increases and supply disruptions, casting doubt over the government’s capacity to ensure smooth provisioning. Therefore, the government has launched a subsidization policy to stem the effects of the high prices of food products in the international market.[xix] In order to strengthen the food security net, Morocco aims to make structural reforms and expand agri-food investments in the country.
Conclusion
The Ukraine conflict has drastically heightened structural problems such as political instability, energy insecurity, and food insecurity in the North African region. The issue of energy security is not a challenge to Algeria and Libya because they have rich energy resources. However, they needed support for meeting their food security due to the supply chain disruption. Meanwhile, Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt faced the impact of the Ukraine conflict in terms of meeting their energy interests as they depended on external energy sources. Besides, they also have borne the brunt of the supply chain disruption of the food grains that escalated the food prices and created a political crisis in these countries necessitating measures such as subsidisation. The Ukraine conflict has also heightened regional conflicts, such as the Western Sahara, due to the interests of external actors and their engagement with regional partners.
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*Dr. Arshad, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] “Russia’s War in Ukraine may fundamentally alter global economic, political order,” Reuters, March 16, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/tuHI0, November 18, 2023
[ii] Algeria provides the support to the Polisario Front which is aiming to establish the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic against the wishes of Morocco which wants to control the disputed territory.
[iii]“Explanation of vote by First Deputy Permanent Representative Dmitry Polyanskiy after UNSC vote on a draft resolution on renewing the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO),” Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN, October 30, 2023, accessed https://russiaun.ru/en/news/1301023, November 24, 2023.
[iv] “The Western Sahara Conflict: A Fragile path to negotiations,” Atlantic Council, August 3, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/elE03, November 3, 2023.
[v] “ Sunny Side Up: Maximising the European Green Deal’s Potential for North Africa and Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations, January 9, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/tHNY6, November 18, 2023
[vi] “Algeria’s Tebboune to visit Russia in May: Presidency,” Arab News, January 31, 2023, accessed https://rb.gy/iyg7ou, October 27, 2023.
[vii] It is controlled by UN-mandated Government of National Unity.
[viii] “Russia-Ukraine War Compounds Tunisian Banks’ Vulnerabilities,” Fitch Ratings, April 12, 2022, accessed https://shorturl.at/elFH0, November 18, 2023
[ix] It is a natural gas pipeline which links the Hassi R’Mel gas field in Algeria through Morocco with Cordoba in
Andalusia, Spain.
[x] “Morocco: The impact of the war in Ukraine on international and domestic affairs. Between autonomy and crisis, IEMed, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/yCZ28, November 20, 2023
[xi] “ Sunny Side Up: Maximising the European Green Deal’s Potential for North Africa and Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations, January 9, 2023, accessed https://ecfr.eu/publication/sunny-side-up-maximising-the-european-green-deals-potential-for-north-africa-and-europe/, November 18, 2023
[xii] “The Fragile state of food security in the Maghreb: Implication of the 2021 cereal grains crisis in Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco,” Middle East Institute, November 9, 2021, accessed
https://rb.gy/s2gelt, November 20, 2023
[xiii] “War in Ukraine and food insecurity in Tunisia: Where is reform most needed?, Arab Reform Initiative, August 4, 2022, accessed https://www.arab-reform.net/publication/war-in-ukraine-and-food-insecurity-in-tunisia-where-is-reform-most-needed/, November 20, 2023
[xiv] “Memorandum of understanding on a strategic and global partnership between the European Union and Tunisia,” European Commission, July 16, 2023, accessed https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_23_3887, December 1, 2023
[xv] “Libya, MENA region: Revised emergency appeal no.MDRLY005, November 30, 2023, accessed
https://t.ly/ufVF2, December 1, 2023
[xvi] It allowed food and feritilizer exports from three Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea-Odesa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhny.
[xvii] “Caught off guard and beaten” The Ukraine war and food security in the Middle East,” Frontiers, February 21, 2023, accessed
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnut.2023.983346/full, December 2, 2023
[xviii] “How the crisis in Ukraine affects Egypt’s vulnerable families and children,” The Forum: ERF Policy Portal, April 4, 2023, accessed https://t.ly/f3NlE, December 4, 2023
[xix] “The Russian-Ukraine War and Food Security in Morocco,” Policy Center for the New South, April 2022, accessed https://t.ly/6GrVG, December 4, 2023