The war in Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, when Russia launched a “full-scale attack on Ukraine via land, air and sea”.[1] Since then, several phases of offensive by Russia, as well as the counteroffensive by Ukraine, have taken place. The escalation in recent months has been confined to the south and east of Ukraine and has largely been in favour of Russia. Given that Kyiv also continues to defend its position in the region, an end to the ongoing conflict is not foreseeable in the near future. As newer conflicts in the Middle East amplify and domestic issues such as elections[2] command attention from major stakeholders in the West, the Ukraine fatigue has begun to intensify. With little advancement on its counteroffensive and a resilient Russia which is unlikely to retreat, “Ukraine faces a protracted war that will require long-term support from allies who are also focused on the Israel-Hamas war.”[3] This Issue Brief provides the background as well as the current status of the crisis in Ukraine.
Background
The crisis in Ukraine has been underway since late 2013 when then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych backed out of entering into an association agreement with the European Union (EU) during the Eastern Partnership Summit. Yanukovych’s sudden turnaround prompted pro-European demonstrations in Kyiv. At the same time, pro-Russian demonstrations intensified in Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Lugansk or the Donbas region). As the situation escalated, Yanukovych fled the country on 22 February 2014 and moved to Russia. In March 2014, Russia organised a referendum in Crimea to showcase support for its occupation. The international status of the Crimean Peninsula is regarded as an “annexation” by the West, while Russia regards it as a fundamental part of its geography and history. The eastern part of Ukraine is composed of ethnic Russians who favour integration with Russia. Since the developments of 2014, armed confrontation in this region had continued, as no breakthrough could be achieved despite the signing of Minsk Peace Accords by Ukraine and Russia. The Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements were facilitated by France, Germany and OSCE and included provisions for a ceasefire and resumption of socio-economic ties between Ukraine and Russia. However, these agreements failed due to non implementation as there were major differences between Kyiv and Moscow with respect to the status of the Donbas region.[4]
A new phase of hostilities began in February 2022, after Russia recognised the Donbas region and ratified “the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance” with Donetsk and Lugansk on 21 February 2022.[5] This was followed by launch of a “full scale attack on Ukraine via land, air and sea”[6] by Russia. The first phase of hostilities finished around 25 March 2022 when the Russian Defence Ministry announced that “the main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished” and that “the combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced.”[7] During the period that followed, military activity from Russia reduced. Several rounds of negotiations also took place between Russian and Ukrainian officials. Signs of a possible ceasefire were visible throughout March, as there were high expectations from the negotiations held in Turkey on 10 March and 14 March 2022. Before the two rounds of negotiations in Turkey, three rounds of talks had also taken place in Belarus but did not result in any result. Signs of a ceasefire, however, were short-lived as soon as the alleged atrocities by Russia in areas from which it had retreated only days ago, were highlighted by the Ukrainian government. The alleged war crimes by Russian soldiers in Bucha (near Kyiv)[8] brought the negotiations to a standstill. Since then, no major negotiation involving both Russia and Ukraine has taken place. There is also no headway with respect to Ukraine’s 10 point Peace Plan[9], which has been rejected by Russia. Apart from the security guarantees it sought from NATO in December 2021, Russia has also termed the Chinese Position paper on Ukraine as being the most ‘realistic’.[10]
In mid-April 2022, Russia launched a new offensive in eastern Ukraine. A few months later, in September 2022, Russia met with strong resistance from Ukraine after the latter was able to regain control in the Kharkiv region. However, Russia was able to control the situation during the winter, following which it launched another wave of offensives against Ukraine in February 2023. A major development was seen in June 2023 when Ukraine launched a much-hyped counteroffensive against Russia with Western support that sought to “break through Russian defences eastward in Donetsk province, including around Bakhmut, and southward in Zaporizhzhia province, which forms the land corridor to Crimea.”[11] However, the counteroffensive failed, and Ukraine had to bear substantial losses.
Latest Developments
At present, given the wavering Western support[12] and its dwindling resources, Ukraine has modified its strategy from launching counteroffensive to an “active defence,” which includes digging deeper trenches and installing more anti-tank bulwarks to protect its territory from Russian stacks.[13] At the same time, Kyiv has opted for drone attacks against Russia, which mostly target Russian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia has continued its military operations in the south and east of Ukraine.
Switzerland is expected to host a Peace Summit in June 2024, the first round of which will not include Russia. However, Switzerland has expressed its intention to involve Russia in later rounds of negotiations. Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis has admitted that "a peace process cannot happen without Russia, even though it will not be there during the first meeting”.[14] This conference would follow four previously organised meetings in Copenhagen, Jeddah, Malta as well as Davos. It is interesting to note that a major outreach has been made to Global South (including India) to attend this meeting.[15]
Meanwhile, the United States has accused Russia of using chemical weapons such as chloropicrin as well as grenades that are loaded with harmful gases such as o-Chlorobenzylidene Malononitrile (CS) and Chloroacetophenone (CN).[16] The US has also accused Moscow of using “riot control agents as a method of warfare” in Ukraine.[17] In addition, the US has blamed China and Iran for aiding Russia in the ongoing war. While Iran has been under scanner for supplying crucial ammunition and drones, China has been accused of supplying crucial technology to Russia. In response to Chinese involvement, the US has sanctioned nearly 300 Chinese entities.[18] This aspect also has implications for the US-China competition, particularly in the domain of new and emerging technologies. Apart from China and Iran, the US has also expressed reservations about arms trade between Russia and North Korea[19].
Conclusion
The conflict in Ukraine is in its third year. The crisis has had both regional and global implications. While it has raised questions about the future of European security architecture, it has also caused supply chain disruptions worldwide. The prolonged fighting has led to Ukraine fatigue in the West, while new crises in the Middle East have resulted in division of attention. Meanwhile, the growing role of China, Iran and North Korea have also come under greater scanner for being favourable towards Russia.
In addition, elections in the US and Europe imply a more inward approach by the leaders of these countries. Recent developments indicate a greater yet silent push for a peace accord between Ukraine and Russia. In this respect, the upcoming peace conference in Switzerland would be of great strategic value, as Geneva has expressed its intent to bring all the stakeholders together in the long run. India has also been invited to participate in the conference, which reflects growing Western recognition of India’s role in ensuring smooth dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the ongoing crisis. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, India has provided substantial humanitarian aid to Ukraine and has consistently called for cessation of hostilities.
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*Dr. Himani Pant, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal
Endnotes
[1] Address by the President of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin, February 24, 2022, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/ news/67843, Accessed on May 2, 2024.
[2] 2024 is the year of elections —a year of “elections” in most parts of the world, from Asia to the Americas, Europe/Russia, Africa, etc.
[3] Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia in maps: latest updates, Financial Times, April 19, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5, Accessed online on May 1, 2024.
[4] https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
[5] Ukraine Crisis and its Implications, Dr. Himani Pant, March 3, 2022, Indian Council of World Affairs, /show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=7147&lid=4835, Accessed online on May 1, 2024.
[6] Address by the President of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin, February 24, 2022, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/ news/67843, Accessed on May 2, 2024.
[7] Main objectives of first stage of special operation in Ukraine generally accomplished - Russian General Staff, Interfax, March25, 2022, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/77393/ Accessed on May 2, 2022.
[8] Ukrainian officials alleged that over 300 bodies of civilians were found scattered on the streets of the city following the departure of Russian soldiers
[9] WHATISZELENSKYY’S10-POINTPEACEPLAN?, 11.08.2023, https://war.ukraine.ua/faq/zelenskyys-10-point-peace-plan/, Accessed on 3 May 2024.
[10] China's peace plan serve as basis for settlement in Ukraine — Putin, TASS, 16 October 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1691093, Accessed online on 3 May 2024.
[11] War in Ukraine, Global Conflict Tracker, CFR, April 24, 2024,https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine, Accessed online on May 2, 2024.
[12] As the war fatigue strengthens, there has been opposition towards US aid to Ukraine. After months of delay, the US House of Representatives approved the latest $60.8bn military assistance to Ukraine. Similarly, the EU and its member states provided $148.5 billion (138 billion euros) and support package of $54 billion (50 billion euros) after much resistance from member countries, particularly Hungary. .
[13] War in Ukraine, Global Conflict Tracker, CFR, April 24, 2024,https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine, Accessed online on May 2, 2024.
[14] Switzerland to host 'high-level' Ukraine peace summit in mid-June, says Russia will not attend, France 24, April 10, 2024, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240410-switzerland-host-ukraine-peace-summit-mid-june-russia, Accessed online on April 15, 2024.
[15] Katie Ruppert, In Search of a Formula for Lasting Peace in Ukraine, United States Institute of Peace, February 21, 2024, https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/02/search-formula-lasting-peace-ukraine, Accessed online on April 30, 2024.
[16] US accuses Russia of using chemical weapons in Ukraine war, Aljazeera, May 2, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/2/us-accuses-russia-of-using-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine-war, Accessed online on May 2, 2024.
[17]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/2/russia-ukraine-war-list-of-key-events-day-798
[18] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/02/ukraine-war-briefing-us-hits-china-with-sanctions-over-war-supplies-to-russia
[19] Australia-Republic of Korea 2+2 Foreign And Defence Ministers’ Meeting; AUKUS Pillar Two; Hanwha bid for Austal; foreign interference; Korean peninsula security.
01 May 2024, https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/transcript/press-conference-melbourne.