On 2 May 2024, Jeremiah Manele was elected as the new Prime Minister (PM) of Solomon Islands. Having a diplomatic background, Manele has earlier served as the country’s Foreign Minister under former PM Manasseh Sogavare. The new PM has pledged to continue with the previous government’s pro China stance.[1] Solomon Islands is a small country in the Southwest Pacific with a small population of 724,000, having total area of 27.9 thousand sq km but also has a significantly large and resource rich EEZ of 1.6 million sq km. The country has been in the news, it signed a security agreement with China in 2022, after switching its diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China in 2019. At the time, the new PM elect Jeremiah Manele was the Foreign Minister of the country. The April 2024 election was the first general elections in Solomon Islands since the signing of the deal with China.
In the national elections in April 2024, the Sogavare government was anticipating a clear majority. The outgoing PM is only the second Head of Government in the country’s history to serve a full term.[2] However, election results did not show a clear victory for any party. Sogavare’s Ownership, Unity and Responsibility Party (OUR) got 15 out of 50 seats in the national parliament. Eight of the incumbent OUR ministers lost their seats still the party came out as the largest party but not with enough seats to form a government.[3] On 2 May 2024, legislators elected the new PM through a secret ballot. Jeremiah Manele won the ballot with 31 votes to 18 and took over as the country’s PM after Sogavare had stepped down from party’s leadership position allowing Manele to take over. Sogavare, the outgoing PM, had announced after the elections that he would not put himself forward as country’s next PM, and OUR Party decided on Jeremiah Manele as the PM candidate. After the election of the new PM, Chinese Embassy in Solomon Islands said that it looked forward to working with the new government “to develop China-Solomon Islands relations and deliver more benefits to our people”.[4] Reacting to the final results of the election, the Australian PM Anthony Albanese said that, “Australia and Solomon Islands are close friends, our futures are connected” and that he looked forward to working with new PM Manele.[5]
The elections in Solomon Islands were being watched carefully in Australia, China and in the US because of the developments in the country and in the region in recent years. It is therefore, important to analyse the election and new government in the light of the constantly evolving strategic situation in the region and in the wider Indo Pacific region.
With the new PM, there is likely to be more of continuity, especially in the foreign policy realm. Also, outgoing PM Sogavare is still going to be an important face in the country’s politics. It remains to be seen what position he gets as the new PM finalises his cabinet in the coming days.
Sogavare’s tenure has been full of controversies. From the sudden diplomatic switch to China, large scale civil unrest in 2021, and the controversial security agreement with China in 2022, all these development have been contributing to the brewing tensions in the region involving the major powers and regional players as well. Solomon Islands have been an important country in the island region, from the perspective of rapidly shifting geopolitics in the South Pacific region.
Solomon Islands has its own issues, the country has a history of inter-island tensions, alongside a number of internal issues like poverty, unemployment, corruption are also there. The country had faced civil unrest in 2021, witnessing violent protests in the capital Honiara, largely due to dissatisfaction with the Sogavare government’s policies, especially its pro-China stand. The government also faced no-confidence in Parliament. Australia, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Fiji, and New Zealand, had sent peacekeeping forces, on request, to restore order in the country. Later, in April 2022, the signing of the Framework Agreement for Security Cooperation between Solomon Islands and China, took regional countries by surprise. The deal had resulted in large scale apprehension in the US and its regional allies, about the lack of and transparency of the and the fear of Chinese military presence in the region.
Geopolitical landscape in the region has been heating up in recent years with regional players concerned about China’s large scale diplomatic, economic and military advances in the region. The region is fast emerging as an inflection point in the context of the geopolitical churning in the larger Indo Pacific. With Nauru being the latest country to announce its diplomatic switch to China in January 2024, 11 island nations have relations with China. China has been making large scale investments in infrastructure and connectivity projects in the small islands in the region in recent years. In Solomon Islands itself, China’s investment has substantially increased since 2019. In 2023, an upgraded Munda International Airport was inaugurated in Solomon Islands built by Chinese companies.[6] A number of sports facilities recently constructed for hosting the Pacific Games, were financed by China.[7] The opposition in the country, criticised the government approach, saying that money should rather have been spent on building hospitals and schools rather sports stadiums.[8]
Solomon Islands is being closely pursued by Beijing. Palpable concerns over China’s increasing clout in the region have also resulted in other traditional players reshaping their orientation towards the region. The US has been recently re-engaging with small islands in the region in a major way, hosting regular Summit level meetings with the Pacific Islands Countries (PICs). It has reopened its embassy in Solomon Islands, after 30 years, in February 2023. The US also plans a substantial increase in diplomatic personnel at the newly opened embassies in Solomon, Tonga, Kiribati and Vanuatu.[9]
Australia, located in the region, has been traditionally a predominant player in the South Pacific region. Australia has been critical of the recent Chinese push in the region and has also been pursuing a pro-active policy with its Pacific ‘Step Up’ approach. The recently released Australian National Defence Strategy 2024 mentions that, Australia is being faced with the most challenging strategic environment since the Second World War, marked by increasing US-China competition, unprecedented military buildup in its region. The strategy highlights that, there is increasing competition for influence and access in the Pacific. In such circumstances, “Australia’s aim is to remain the partner of choice for the Pacific family, including in security cooperation. The Australian government encourages all countries to be transparent about their strategic intentions”. [10] It further mentions that, Australia will seek to enhance interoperability with New Zealand and France to pursue security and stability in the Pacific region.[11]
The situation in the South Pacific region is constantly evolving. The small island countries in the region are worried about the increasing US-China contestation turning into military conflict in the region. There are other recent developments in the region that need to be analysed from geopolitical point of view, like recently Fiji has decided to continue to maintain a police cooperation agreement with China which was ‘put on hold’ and was under review for past 12 months, after the new government came to power under PM Sitveni Rabuka. The Rabuka administration was mulling over the termination, of the decade old police cooperation agreement with China, ‘given the differences in policing, investigations and legal systems’ of the two countries. However, Fiji’s Minister for Home Affairs Pio Tikoduadua, announced on March 16, 2024, that Fiji will maintain the agreement but, ‘there will only be Fijian officers training in China and no embedding of Chinese officers in the Fiji police force”[12]. Fiji has been pursuing a cautious approach towards China under the current PM. In addition, there are internal issues in the countries, recently PNG witnessed large scale violent tribal clashes, resulting in killing of a number of people. Australia had agreed to extend support to PNG to handle the situation under the security agreement signed with PNG in 2023.[13] All these developments need to be watched carefully against the backdrop of dynamic geopolitical landscape in the region.
The island countries in the Pacific maybe small, but they have significant strategic, economic and political significance. The increasing engagement by regional and global powers, triggered to a certain extent by China’s aggressive posturing in the region, along with the internal issues that the countries are faced with, is creating a situation where security balances are looking uncertain. Solomon Islands is an important country, given its strategic location northeast of Australia, and has been seeing a lot of action in recent years from the perspective of great power competition building up in the South Pacific. It will be crucial to see how PM Manele and other PICs manage to navigate through the complex geopolitical environment in the region, balancing their ties with major powers without compromising on their agency.
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*Dr. Pragya Pandey is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs.
The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[1] Solomon Islands chooses China-friendly ex-diplomat Jeremiah Manele as new prime minister, Thursday 2 May 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/may/02/solomon-islands-new-pm-prime-minister-jeremiah-manele
[2]Solomon Islands: Unexpected defeat for Sogavare, 26 April 2024, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/solomon-islands-unexpected-defeat-sogavare
[3]Solomon Islands: Unexpected
defeat for Sogavare, 26 April 2024, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/solomon-islands-unexpected-defeat-sogavare
[4] Solomon Islands Picks China-Friendly Manele as New Prime Minister, May 5, 2024, https://ddnews.gov.in/en/solomon-islands-picks-china-friendly-manele-as-new-prime-minister/
[5] I.bid no. 5
[6] Chinese Embassy in Solomon Islands, 12 October 2023, https://www.facebook.com/story.php/?story_fbid=631887159118355&id=100068912282801&paipv=0&eav=AfZbgkwjK13STMS7PC-e81cTmipB5lPRDpxmB4WuOgYpQz3Cr2mPR0_GTjY86rJgPWE&_rdr
[7]Let the games begin: Solomon Islands hosts Pacific Games sports event mostly paid for by China, 21 November 2023, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3242249/let-games-begin-solomon-islands-hosts-pacific-games-sports-event-mostly-paid-china
[8] Solomon Islands PM Sogavare says won’t put himself forward for new term, 30 April 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/30/solomon-islands-pm-sogavare-says-wont-put-himself-forward-for-new-term
[9] US aims to counter China by opening Solomon Islands embassy, 12 February 2022, US aims to counter China by opening Solomon Islands embassy | AP News
[10] Australia National Defense Strategy, 2024, pp. 6 and 17, https://www.defence.gov.au/about/strategic-planning/2024-national-defence-strategy-2024-integrated-investment-program
[11] I.bid, p. 47
[12]Fiji upholds China policing agreement, Guardian Australia reports, March16, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/fiji-upholds-china-policing-agreement-guardian-australia-reports-2024-03-16/
[13] At least 49 killed in massacre in PNG highlands, 19 February 2024, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-19/at-least-49-killed-in-massacre-in-png-highlands/103482982