The story of twenty-first century would be the story of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.[i]
Introduction
The ascent of Salman bin Abdel Aziz as the seventh Monarch of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2015 was marked by decisions that were unprecedented in the history of the Kingdom. He restructured the line of succession to the throne[ii] by removing his Crown Prince, appointing his nephew, Mohammad Bin Nayef, as Crown Price and soon replacing him with his own son Mohammad bin Salman (hence MBS).
The appointment of MBS as the Defense Minister in 2015 and later his nomination as the Crown Prince in 2017 unleashed a revolutionary transformation in Saudi Arabia and in the course of few months, MBS emerged as a de facto ruler of the country. In 2022, MBS was named the Prime Minister and today he possesses a unique degree of power, with absolute control over finance, foreign, defense and petroleum.[iii]
The Kingdom is going through a multifaceted and an unprecedented pace of change unseen since the Kingdom’s foundation in 1932. These changes are epochal, aimed at recasting the traditional image of Saudi Arabia, discarding the linear geopolitical trajectory of the past, jettisoning its socio-cultural mantle, turning the nation into a new global economic hub by exploiting hitherto untapped economic resources and reducing the reliance on foreign skills through the policy of Saudization. MBS had once said that he aims to bring the Kingdom among top 30 to 20 in the world ranking in education system,[iv] and the statement has its own significance as the youth below the age of 35 constitute 60% of the 35 million population.[v] In 2016, he launched the Saudi Vision 2030, showcasing the ambitious blueprint for the future of the Kingdom, which aims to create a synergy between the domestic politics and external geopolitical matrix. Today Saudi Arabia is not only one of the fastest growing economies in G20 but also has two of the biggest global funds and one of the largest cash reserves in the world[vi].
It has recently joined the BRICS – the biggest group of emerging world economies. In a recent interview, MBS said that Saudi Arabia is a big country and everyone in this world owes something to the Kingdom in one way or the other.[vii]
In the light of the above, this paper aims to examine the changing political, economic, strategic and cultural landscape of Saudi Arabia. This paper will also explore how the nation is envisaging to recast itself as a modern state and how it has opened itself to multiple global actors and how its current domestic and global politics are being determined by each other.
A New Order in West Asia and Saudi Arabia
The onset of the Arab Uprising in 2010-11 had created a tremor in the decades-old geopolitical foundation of the West Asia region. The decade following the uprising was marked by a phase of bloodshed, chaos, civil war, realignment of strategic and political formations and intrusion of new actors in the region. The intervention of Saudi Arabia in Bahrain to rescue the monarchy was the first sign of reinforcing of the militaristic component in its foreign policy by Saudi Arabia. This trend furthered with its intervention in Yemen later.[viii]
One has seen how two arch ideological and strategic rivals (Iran and Saudi Arabia) following the Arab uprising in 2011 that were bent upon reshaping the regional strategic map according to their own strategic vision.
Within months of President Trump’s coming to power in 2017, ardently MBS had remarked that the real target of the Iranian regime was Saudi Arabia and he had also then called the spiritual leader of Iran, ‘Hitler of the Middle East’.[ix] Iran was exclusively targeted by the US-Israel-Saudi trio. Through Abraham Accords and an unprecedented level of support of the US, Israel emerged as the strongest political, diplomatic and strategic entity, while its neighboring Arabs were torn apart because of the collapse of the existing political system. A moment came when the collapse of the GCC seemed imminent after Quartet consisting of Saudi Arabia-UAE-Bahrain-Egypt imposed blockade against Qatar in 2017.
But after a decade of overstretching politics, the Kingdom realized that it is losing streak in regional politics in such a way that it had reached a dangerous limit. Having failed to unseat Assad in Syria, the Kingdom later decided to extract itself from there. Likewise, it failed to influence the Lebanese political trajectory as for Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia and Israel became the common target. Similarly, MBS’ military adventurism in Yemen failed to yield any strategic dividend, and the Kingdom realized that its near and distant allies have either under-performed or under-delivered or have not stood by it.
Hence, a radical shift in Saudi Arabia’s approaches began to be noticed by early 2021 and it seemed to have lost appetite for the upkeep in the chaotic politics of the region. The process of reversing its past policy began by the restoration of diplomatic ties with Qatar in January 2021.[x] This was followed by a truce in Yemen, and mending of the relationship with Turkiye, with the Crown Price and President Erdogan paying visits to each other’s country.
In pursuit of a new diplomatic path for the sake of political stability and economic sustainability under Vision 2030, the most defining and the biggest transformative step came in the form of restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023, which many saw as the beginning of the end of the Arab version of Cold War. Both the countries had severed their diplomatic ties after Saudi Arabia had hanged a prominent Shiite clergy in 2016 followed by large-scale vandalism in diplomatic complex of Saudi Arabia in Tehran.
What added exceptionality to this diplomatic exercise was mediation of China in this deal, which was a sort of usurpation of the US diplomatic realm in the region. It was also a sign of growing trust-deficit between the US and the Kingdom and further sign of inception of multi-polarity in the global politics. It is worth recalling here that major parts of the negotiation were already held under the auspices of Iraq and Oman, but China merely happened to enter as a right player at the right moment. MBS, in a recent interview with the Fox News, said, “Its relationship with Iran is progressing and it will continue to do so for the security and stability of the region."[xi]
If the Iran-Saudi deal was a promise of new geopolitics in the region, the ongoing speculations and diplomatic whispers about soon-to-be-established Israel-Saudi Arabia diplomatic ties could be another landmark event in the political history of the region. According to MBS, if Biden succeeds in making this deal possible, it would be the biggest global event since the end of the Cold War.[xii] MBS also said that talk is progressing every day but the resolution of Palestine issue is equally important for the negotiation to move forward.[xiii] For now, the Israel-Hamas war has put the break on any Israel-Saudi rapprochement.
There are reports that Saudi Arabia is seeking major concession from both the US and Israel for eventual recognition of Israel. It wants NATO-like arrangement with the US, supply of advanced defense hardware to Saudi Arabia and the US technological assistance for its civilian nuclear program. He also reportedly said that it would be obligatory for Saudi Arabia to possess nuclear weapons if Iran goes nuclear.[xiv] And from Israel, it wants alleviation of Palestinian plight and establishment of sovereign state of Palestine. [xv] Amidst these guesses and yes-no speculations, Saudi Arabia for the first time appointed a non-resident Ambassador for Palestine Authority in Ramallah. Soon an Israeli delegation in first-ever publicly announced visit landed in Saudi Arabia to attend a UNESCO meet. This visit in the media was portrayed not as a bilateral meeting but the delegation visited the Kingdom because it was the host. This visit was followed by another visit by the Communication Minister of Israel to the Kingdom to attend the World Postal Union Conference.[xvi]
What might further revamp the geopolitical and economic landscape of the region with Saudi Arabia at the center is the agreement to create the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). The decision to launch this mega connectivity project was taken at the sidelines of G20 Summit held in Delhi. The IMEC partners include the US, India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the EU, France, Germany and Italy. The corridor will consist of East Corridor, connecting Indian Ocean to Arabian Gulf, and North Corridor, connecting the Gulf to Europe. The corridor will include railway and cross border ship-to-rail transit network. It will also pass through ports in Jordan and Israel. The signing of the IMEC can be seen as an emergence of a new economy across Asia and Europe where major economic and strategic powers are its members.
President Biden described this deal as a historic one while MBS lauded it as a transformative event for the region and global economy.[xvii] Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately after signing of the deal said in a tweet, “Israel is turning into a major crossroad in this economic corridor…it is the largest cooperation project in the history of Middle East”.[xviii] While President of the European Commission termed it a move on the path of reducing excessive dependence on Chinese supply sources.[xix] Many are interpreting it as an economic and strategic counter to China’s BRI.[xx] The corridor is likely to enhance connective and economic integration where Saudi Arabia would be a prominent player not only because of its wealth but also its overall current politics of economic diversification and strategic recalibration. Saudi Arabia has already committed US$20 billion for the project. This project is also being seen as a catalyst in expediting the process of diplomatic assimilation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and, in case of any delay in diplomatic integration between the two, this economic integration would pave the way for deepening the political and diplomatic ties.
Drifting Saudi-US Ties
The Kingdom’s relationship with the US is anchored in the historical meeting between King Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia and President Roosevelt of the US in 1945, and since then it has been functioning under the maxim of the Kingdom’s oil supply to the global market in exchange of the US protection of its Monarchy.
The US-Saudi ties have witnessed various ups and downs, but a constant downturn is being perceived since the days of Obama [xxi]except during President Trump’s era (2017-2021). Both the US outreach to Iran for the sake of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and its response to the Arab Uprising put the US-Saudi on collision path, and since then both have been at cross-purposes on several issues.[xxii]
Both MBS and Trump took the mantles of power in 2017 when the former was crowned as a successor to his octogenarian father and the latter entered the White House. Trump’s policy towards the Gulf was diametrically opposed to his predecessor, Obama – the former had all empathy for Saudi Arabia and animosity against Iran, while the latter had no such affinity towards the Saudi Monarchy and, instead, he had once said that Saudi Arabia would have to share its neighborhood with Iran.[xxiii]The exit of Trump from the White House saw another phase of slump in the Saudi-US bond, which could be either attributed to the Saudi urge to rebrand the Kingdom or waning interest of the US in the region.
In his primary, President Biden had made several furious statements against MBS and had termed the Saudi Arabia a Pariah state for the killing of Khashoggi.[xxiv] MBS had also retaliated by saying that he did not care if Biden misunderstood something about him. In recent months, the resumption of the US-Iran negotiation has alienated them further when Saudi-US trust deficit is already at its peak.
Saudi Arabia no longer envisions itself as a second-tier player in the bifurcated international system akin to its past.[xxv] The Kingdom has realised that the US over the years continued to overlook the interest of its oldest allies (Saudi Arabia) and that there is lack of convergence in the interest of both the countries. Much water seems to have flown since the US security guarantee pledged to the Monarchy in 1945 and today the US, as a security partner, has become less reliable in its view.
The Kingdom over the years has shifted from reactive posturing to active posturing in the sphere of its foreign policy.[xxvi] MBS reiterated recently that the Kingdom’s oil resources can no longer be treated emotionally, and it would be neither less nor more than an investment.[xxvii] Redefining the foreign policy of the Kingdom, he said it means only national interest and security alone.[xxviii]
In last few months, growing pressure over Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic ties with Israel has further abetted the bitterness between the two. Despite immense pressure from the Biden administration, MBS, the de facto ruler of the Kingdom, has given no such assurance that the Kingdom would help in widening the orbit of the Abraham Accord without an honest redressal of the Palestinian issue. One does not know to what extent the Saudi-Israel deal would benefit the Kingdom, but for Biden, if it succeeds, it would serve as an additional advantage in wooing the electorate in 2024 US elections. Growing strategic divergence over various regional issues, ongoing global geopolitical transformation and set of current global crisis have ushered in a feeling of betrayal on the part of the Kingdom when it comes to what the Kingdom expects and what the US is ready to offer. The support for Saudi Arabia has waned among both the Democrats and the Republicans and the Congress members. But yet the engagement between US and Saudi Arabia continues .MBS himself said that there is no such thing as hundred percent consensus in bilateral relationship and if Saudi Arabia differs on ten percent, it also agrees on ninety percent on issues of mutual interest.[xxix] One should not also overlook the fact that the worth of US-Saudi defense deal alone exceeds the worth of Saudi defense deal with combined top five weapons exporting countries to the Kingdom.[xxx]
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Kingdom’s Polite NO to the US Diktat
The US has been the closet ally of the Kingdom for decades not only owing to the Kingdom’s ideological otherness with the US’ rival, erstwhile Soviet Union, but more because the US has been an older economic and defense partner for Saudi Arabia. However, after the end of the Cold War and subsequent evolution of a new global politics, much have changed and so the Saudi-Russia ties.
The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict last year was an issue that ushered in shaping a new dynamic of the relationship between the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia. On account of over a year of Russia-Ukraine conflict, the upswing in oil price across the world and supply disruption has not only provided a new leeway to Saudi Arabia in its engagement with the US but also acquired a new strategic strength because of its oil wealth and emergence of a new geopolitics.
Russia-Ukraine conflict has widened the scope of engagement between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Amidst the peak of conflict in early 2023, MBS had said, “In Saudi Arabia, we have good relations with Russia, and we also have good relations with Ukraine, and we have good and lively trade ties with Ukraine and Russia, and therefore we seek to do everything in our power to resolve this issue.” [xxxi] Amidst the US’ tantrum against Saudi Arabia for not slashing the oil production to punish Russia, Saudi Arabia sent an economic assistance worth US$400 million to Ukraine and used its influence with President Putin for prisoners swap between Ukraine and Russia.[xxxii] Meanwhile despite voting along with other Western countries on Russian military action, the Kingdom did not join the West-led sanction and officially termed the military action of Russia merely as “Really Bad”.[xxxiii] Such moves on the part of Saudi Arabia proves that the Kingdom is no longer concerned with the US’ old optic of “Are you against us or with us”.[xxxiv] To enforce its growing global stature, it hosted a peace talk in August 2023 on Ukraine with the participation of representatives from forty countries. [xxxv]
To mitigate the energy crisis emerging out of the Ukraine conflict and mend the strained relationship, Biden visited Saudi Arabia in July 2022.[xxxvi] Even five days before his visit, he wrote an op-ed in Washington Post, explaining the reasons for his visit to Saudi Arabia.[xxxvii] By that visit, Biden would have planned to prove the strategic worth of the US by coercing the GCC countries compensate for the oil dearth arising out of absence of Russian oil in the global market.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have been defiant in the face of the US pressure to cut ties with OPEC+ oil producer over its military actions in Ukraine. President Biden often accused Saudi Arabia and other GCC states of being too close to Russia. Europe, along with the US, is trying to punish Russia economically by seeking the enhancement of oil production but because of the oil price hike, the opposite is happening.
Saudi Arabia’s current level of ties with Russia is helping Russia in two ways: first Russia has emerged as a major source of oil market stability and second it seems to become a potential source of advanced weapons for Saudi Arabia and strengthening the prospect of multi-polar world order.[xxxviii] Given reluctance of the US to help Saudi Arabia militarily to counter Houthis attack including against Saudi Aramco Facilities in 2019, Russia had shown its eagerness to supply its S-400 air-defense system to the Kingdom.[xxxix] Furthermore, when Houthis escalated their attack on Saudi territories, the US decided to withdraw its missile defense installation from the Kingdom.[xl] The drive for diversification of its security partners is also inducing the Kingdom to look towards countries like Russia, China, France and Britain.[xli] In the midst of the sanction regime against Russia, MBS-controlled Public Investment Fund (PIF) invested US$500 million in major Russian energy sectors.[xlii]
China-Saudi Arabia-US: Zero Sum Game or Multilateralism
In the wake of changing geopolitical and diplomatic scenario within the Arab world and beyond, Saudi Arabia tends to recalibrate its ties with all the major and mid-size powers and most importantly with China. This growing proximity can be attributed to an apparent estrangement between the US and Saudi Arabia and China’s deepening ties with Iran, which for Saudi Arabia is a strategic loss, and in global politics, it is defined as Zero-Sum Game. Today China has not only forged deeper strategic ties with Iran–a foe-turned-friend of Saudi Arabia–but equally enjoys close affinity with Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia and China signed a Strategic Partnership in 2016,[xliii] and the former is an important member of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project. China is a part of many infrastructural projects within Saudi Arabia, including the expansion of Grand Mosques. Saudi Arabia is also trying to synergize its Vision 2030 with Chinese BRI, and Saudi Arabia has emerged as a big destination for Chinese defense and electronic equipment. During the visit of President XI Jinping to Saudi Arabia in December 2022, China committed investment worth US$10 billion in various infrastructure projects and XI Jinping used the occasion to address the GCC and Arab League leaders akin to what President Trump had done in 2017. In his address, Jinping also called upon Arab leaders to use Yuan for oil and gas transactions[xliv] but at present it seems a difficult proposition because most of Saudi assets and reserves are in US dollars and Saudi economy is closely pegged to it alone. Though the Bloomberg has recently reported that Saudi Arabia is already in negotiation with China on Yuan-priced contract for next six years[xlv] but others see it as an act of hedging against the US.
On changing Saudi’s foreign policy and connecting the move to its national interest, MBS in a latest interview with Fox News said that once the US used to comprise 50% of world economy but today it has been reduced to 20%. Every country is trying to regain its balance and so is the Kingdom, which tends to recalibrate its policy with every country and region ranging from China to France to Russia to the US to the UK to India to Latin America to the countries of the Arab region. [xlvi]
According to a report published in the Wall Street Journal on August 25, 2023, Saudi Arabia is considering a Chinese bid to build its coveted civilian nuclear power plant,[xlvii]after the US turned its back to Saudi’s desire to develop nuclear reactor in order to shift from the hydrocarbon to clean energy under its Vision 2030. It is also reported that Chinese bid is 20% cheaper than what was quoted by South Korea and France for the same. What eventually overshadowed all past stories of growing Saudi-China ties was the role of China in brokering Saudi-Iran Peace Deal in March 2023, which is likely to reshape the strategic face of the whole region. The Chinese mediation is not merely an act of usurpation of the US diplomatic realm but a strong sign of geopolitical shift of Saudi Arabia towards China. This mediation has also removed the tag of being a ‘Free Ride’[xlviii] for China when President Obama, in 2014, had accused China of escaping the burden of sharing the responsibility of global security.
What induces the Kingdom to look towards China is its ardent policy of non-interference and unlike in the US Congress, there is no hue and cry (as seen in case of supply of F-35 to Saudi Arabia) over the supply of advanced Chinese weapons to the Kingdom. Since 2021, Saudi Arabia is engaged in independent production of ballistic missiles with the help of China.
China offers economic opportunity to Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia seeks trade with China and other East Asian countries. In 2020, its oil exports to Japan, India, China and South Korea constitutes around 66% of its total exports and, in 2021, the US only accounted for 10% of Saudi imports, while China had 20%.[xlix] In 2021, the volume of trade between China and Saudi Arabia was US$87.3 billion, while between the US and Saudi Arabia it did not exceed US$24.5 billion.[l] With such a volume of trade, China would be the biggest source of hard currency, which would naturally add to the success story of the Saudi Vision 2030.[li] According to Economic Intelligence Unit, in 2021, 5% of Saudi export went to the US, 20% to the EU and a staggering 50% to China, India, Japan and South Korea. It can be said that the Kingdom’s security lies with the US and economic prosperity lies with the East.[lii]
OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia’s Belligerent Behavior
If the changing trajectory of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy over a decade is examined closely, one will notice that behavioral changes are not limited to its strategic, political or diplomatic realm alone but it is equally visible in its oil policy, which continues to be a decisive factor in its relationship both with the West and the East. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a block of 13 oil-rich countries, and, since its establishment in 1960, it has remained an agency for fixing the production quota for respective Member States. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US and its allies have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia and one option for them was to flood the market with oil and gas, which would naturally bring down the price and subsequently hit the economy of Russia – a major producer of oil and gas.
The formation of OPEC+ Group of 24 oil-producing countries in 2017 headed by Saudi Arabia and Russia[liii] was a significant illustration of Saudi Arabia’s reorientation in its foreign policy. This new arrangement annoyed the US because it would enhance Russia’s sway in the global oil market and the US and its allies would have to accommodate competing voices within the cartel. Saudi Arabia, first among equal within OPEC, on account of being one-third producer of total OPEC production,[liv] continues to use it as a bargain chip in its global strategic makeover. It was only because of the confrontational stance of Saudi Arabia within the OPEC that Qatar withdrew from its membership in 2019.[lv] It is worth recalling that Saudi Arabia had felt subdued after the US, through its shale oil, had flooded the oil market in 2010,[lvi] but now by partnering with Russia in OPEC+, the country is eyeing to gain its lost ground. During the COVID-19 both Russia and Saudi Arabia had become fierce competitors but changing geopolitics in the wake of Ukraine conflict had realigned them.
Amidst mounting pressure of the US and its allies against Russia, Saudi Arabia refused to endorse the US demand to keep the oil production up but, to the chagrin of the US, it decided to cut the oil production in October 2022 by 2 million barrel per day,[lvii]which was a direct affront for the US ahead of mid-term elections there in December 2022. This decision was taken after a meeting between Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and US-sanctioned Russian Deputy Prime Minister in June 2022. Then Saudi Energy Minister had said that relation between Saudi Arabia and Russia is as warm as the weather in Riyadh.[lviii]
This cut was conceived not merely as a means of adding extra revenues to the Russian exchequer but also make Europeans pay more for gas ahead of ensuing winter. President Biden, showing his disproval, had said that the Kingdom would bear the consequences for its action.[lix] Some members of Senate Foreign Relations Committee also talked of applying the US antitrust law (NOPEC) to punish the OPEC+ countries.[lx] Following this action of the Saudi Arabia, there was general perception among the US policy makers that Saudi Arabia could no longer be considered a pliant partner, and President Biden was blamed for his last visit to Saudi Arabia. Bernard Haykel, an Arab historian, writing on the eve of Biden visit to Saudi Arabia, had remarked that Saudi-US relations had reached an all-time low.[lxi] Today Saudi Arabia has no appetite to be dictated like in the past until the US helps it in putting some of its key political and security anxieties to rest.
Saudi Arabia beyond Oil: Vision 2030
In its overall quest for recasting the Kingdom in all its form and shape, MBS in April 2016 announced Vision 2030,[lxii] which can be best described as an ambitious national blueprint to affect change in every aspect of the Kingdom’s life. It promises a new economic model and an inspirational future for its youth by shifting from traditional oil economy to unexplored economic trajectory.[lxiii]
The Vision 2030 aims to reshape the infrastructural, economic, social and cultural milieu of the country. To achieve the overall objectives of Vision 2030, MBS launched a National Investment Strategy in 2021, which aims to empower the investors, provides investment opportunities and enhances competitiveness. Saudi Arabia, under MBS’s rule, is now charting a new course to integrate its oil economy with the global political economy and it no longer wants to be seen as only oil-dependent or a nation of petrodollars. MBS in an interview explained that in the decades of 1970s-80s oil revenue was good enough, but today oil revenue cannot fulfill the modern-day needs of the citizens.[lxiv] He further added that why should the Kingdom depend on oil alone if there are sectors like mining, tourism, service and logistics sectors and investment, which could be exploited for more progress.
The November 2022 production cut policy of Saudi Arabia was very much driven by its ambitious Vision 2030 as can be recalled that global oil price was in constant fall between 2014 and 2019, and it further fell amidst COVID-19, touching US$11 per barrel.[lxv] The oil market had witnessed this steep fall when the Kingdom needed more hard cash to launch its Vision 2030. Like many countries across the world, Saudi Arabia too is keen to shift from oil economy to knowledge economy. Highlighting the drive of the economic diversification, MBS in an interview said that the Kingdom has the plan to link sports, culture, entertainment and tourism with the developmental sectors, and he informed that the government is working to enhance the contribution of sport to the tune of 1.5% of the GDP.[lxvi] Its Football Association has also announced its intention to bid for hosting of 2034 Football World Cup. Saudi Arabia has raised the investment in tourist sector from the current 3% of the GDP to 7% and is also planning to increase the current numbers of tourists visiting the Kingdom from 40 million to 100 million by 2030.[lxvii] The Vision 2030 also envisages boosting the number of pilgrims visiting the Kingdom every year. MBS constituted Public Investment Fund (PIF) to fund the Vision 2030 and it also has a plan to create a Sovereign Wealth worth US$2 trillion. The decision to allow some public stake in ARAMCO is integral to the Vision 2030 as it would increase the value of PIF and would turn it into global investment behemoth. To commemorate the target date of implementation of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is planning to welcome around 40 million people from across the world over the six-month period beginning in October 2030.[lxviii]
To create an image of nation, which tends to keep pace with time, MBS in October 2017 announced his plan to build a high-tech city, NEOM, on northwestern coast of Saudi Arabia with the total cost of US$-500 billion. This would be a futuristic city and logistical hub[lxix] and in the words of MBS, it would be the best livable area so far on the planet.[lxx] It will be operated by artificial intelligence, manned by naturalized Saudi robots and powered by the sun. The mega NEOM project aims to attract global investments and opt for a socio-technological experiment anchored in religious tolerance and sustainable developments.
Emergence of New Socio-Cultural Sphere: A New Dawn
The pace of transformation is not only noticeable in the sphere of global or regional engagement but the MBS doctrine is equally committed to refashion the socio-religious and cultural ethos of the country by discarding the past conservatism and puritanism. For the first time in 2020, Saudi Arabia declared February 22 of every year as the Foundation Day of the country [lxxi] to commemorate the establishment of first Saudi state in 1727 under the stewardship of Muhammad Bin Saud, while most of the history text mentions 1744 as the year of establishment of first Saudi state under Ibn Saud with the military and intellectual collaboration of Mohammad Wahab. The announcement of the new Foundation Day aims to dissociate the political history of the Kingdom from the Wahabism.[lxxii] MBS, in an interview, is reported to have remarked that if one’s identity cannot withstand the diversity of the world, it means that particular identity is weak and one needs to do without it.[lxxiii]
In pursuit of swapping the current conservative landscape with a moderate version, decades-old system of religious policing has been done away. A group of moderate clerics have been designated to preach about respect for other religions, an anathema to its past religious ethos.[lxxiv] Saudi Arabian Islam now onwards, according to MBS, would be open to all religions, all traditions and people[lxxv] and the Kingdom would no longer be a place for advocacy of bigoted thinking. To achieve the objective of Vision 2030 and to keep pace with the spirit of modernity, the Kingdom is modernizing its laws and institutions and MBS himself once said, “I myself feel embarrassed by some of the existing laws.[lxxvi] To the youth, a new set of teaching is being imparted insisting that loyalty to the state and nation are above the tribal or religious loyalty and the notion of Ummah has no place in today’s real politics.[lxxvii]
One of the most revolutionary changes in recent years has been witnessed in the life of women. The policy of modernization pursued by MBS includes allowing women to drive and join the military, increasing female employment, opening cinema and theaters and making the Kingdom akin to other countries across the world.[lxxviii] The women can now travel abroad without male guardians, and the rule of gender segregation has seen extensive moderation. Today women can be seen on the street guiding foreign tourists and patrolling at the night.[lxxix] According to 2022 IMF report, women participation in national work force has reached 36%,[lxxx] while Vision 2030’s aim was to assign 30% market space to women by 2030. Saudi Arabia is trying to overcome the centuries-old stereotype about its society and women now can be seen attending many sport events in the stadium. In an interview with the New York Times in 2018, MBS had said that women are equal to men and we are all human beings and there is no difference.
The display of soft power and cultural posturing constitutes a major component of Vision 2030, and art and culture are also showing its own strength to influence the socio-cultural space of the country. For the first time in 2018, the Kingdom established an independent Ministry of Culture,[lxxxi] and now the cultural practice seems to have become a source of recreation, which was an anathema till recently. The Kingdom is on the path of becoming a powerhouse in the world of eSports and gaming and it is one of the ways of transforming the Kingdom into digital entertainment hub. Amongst other things, a billion-dollar initiative “Ignite” has been launched recently to boost digital content and transform the Kingdom into a leading digital entertainment and media production hub.[lxxxii]
Conclusion
MBS doctrine represents a profound change in the foreign policy and it is set out to determinedly alter the fundamental of social-cultural and religious face of the Kingdom. First and foremost objective of the Kingdom under MBS seems to change the image of the nation and create a new synergy between the new realities of a global geo-political and geo-economic spheres and the overall socio-cultural and economic formation at home. With a certain set of measures, the Kingdom envisages regaining its lost position in the Arab world and playing more active role in global politics and to be treated not merely as an oil trader and nor be seen as an emblem of a conservative and regressive social system. MBS doctrine is not only about diversifying its economy or providing a new vision for the future but also about recasting the overall Kingdom’s socio-cultural front within the parameters of its own history where it would be viewed as “normal” as a nation as other nations.
Over the years and particularly after taking over of the reign of power by MBS, Saudi Arabia has been witnessing fundamental changes in its foreign policy approaches and has joined the chorus for the creation of a multi-polar world order with a significant diplomatic and strategic voice for itself. Various new factors at home such as Vision 2030 and other socio-religious reforms have emerged as a new driving force of its foreign policy. Moreover security, prosperity and political stability seem to be a new component of its regional and global policy, and it has no appetite for being part of the old global or regional geopolitical order. Though there are visible signs of recalibration in Saudi Arabia’s domestic and foreign policy, but one should refrain from making a pronouncement that ongoing transformation in Saudi’s external and internal fronts are likely to entail the Kingdom to abruptly jettison its past allies or completely alter the mantle of its polity at home.
*****
*Dr. Fazzur Rahman Siddiqui, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i]MBS: Kingdom is the Story of the Century, Asharq Al-Awsat (An Arabica Daily), September 21, 2023, Accessed https://acesse.dev/7Hprc September 22, 2023
[ii] Umer Karim, The evolution of Saudi Foreign Policy and the role of decision-making process and actors, The International Spectator, 2017
[iii] Umer Karim
[iv] Ten Things the Saudi CP said you need to know, Fast Company, September 23, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/FR0Bb September 25, 2023
[v] Hishaam Ghinaam, New trends in Saudi Foreign Policy, Majallah (An Arabic Weekly), March 13, 2023, Accessed https://l1nq.com/gsBB7 September 23, 2023
[vi]Ten Things the Saudi CP said you need to know
[vii] Kon Kakhlin, Interview of MBS shows rising global role of the Kingdom, Asharq Al-Awsat (An Arabica Daily), September 21, 2023, Accessed https://acesse.dev/MsKXZ September 25, 2023
[viii] Paloma and David, The Salman Doctrine in Saudi Arabia Foreign Policy: Objective and the Use of Military Force, Austral & Brazil Journal of Strategy and International Relations, July-December 2019
[ix]Saudi Crown Prince: Iran Leader is Hitler of the Middle East, Arab News, November 24, 2017, Accessed https://rb.gy/zkf4x September 23, 2023
[x] The Kingdom Strengthens its Leadership Role in ME, Al-Quds-Al-Arabi (An Arabica Daily), September 24, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/mDnz4 September 29, 2023
[xi] MBS: Kingdom is the Story of the Century
[xii] MBS: Kingdom is the Story of the Century
[xiii] MBS: Kingdom is the Story of the Century
[xiv] Hishaam Ghinaam, Seven Messages of MBS, Majallah (An Arabic Weekly), September 22, 2023, Accessed https://acesse.dev/uZPiU September 22, 2023
[xv]The Kingdom Strengthens its Leadership Role in ME
[xvi] Second Israeli Minister visits Saudi Arabia in a week amid normalization talk, The New Arab, October 1, 2023 Accessed https://acesse.dev/G5KeK October 1, 2023
[xvii] Abdel Aziz, Far Reaching Implication of IMEC, Arab News, September 12, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/dcQcJ September 21, 2023
[xviii]A Atwan, What Did Egypt, Turkey and Others Left out in IMEC, Rail Youm (An Arabic Daily), September 11, 2023, Accessed https://l1nq.com/YMgCt September 12, 2023
[xix] IMEC: How will it Change the Shape of World Trade, Sky Arabic, September 11, 2023, Accessed https://l1nq.com/Bs5iP September 26, 2023
[xx] Mahmood Qai, What is Behind the IEC, Rail Youm (An Arabic Daily), September 11, 2023, Accessed https://l1nq.com/Kj5eU September 21, 2023
[xxi]Obama’s years in White House brought the long-lasting change in US-Saudi relation after Obama concluded JCPOA in 2015 with Iran and abandoned its oldest Arab allies in the face of the Arab upheaval. Once Saudi press also argued that Osama’s policies were actually encouraging the unleashing of extremist forces in the region
[xxii] F Gregory III, Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East, Council on Foreign Relations, Council Special Report No. 6, 2011
[xxiii]Karen E. Young, How Saud Arabia Sees the World, Foreign Affairs, November 01, 2022
[xxiv]Samuel Willner, Saudi Arabia of Mohammad Bin Salman: Adapting to the Changing World and Preserving the Monarchy, Israeli Journal of Foreign affairs, January 18, 2023, Accessed https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/23739770.2022.2162251 September 14, 2023
[xxv]Karen E. Young
[xxvi]Ali Shihabi, Saudi Arabia New Foreign Policy Doctrine, Al-Arabiya, May 20, 2020, Accessed https://rb.gy/cmtvd September 13, 2023
[xxvii]Transcript of interview of MBS with Al-Arabiya on Vision 2030, Al-Arabiya, April 02, 2021, Accessed https://rb.gy/poznv September 23, 2023
[xxviii]MBS on Vision 2030
[xxix]MBS on Vision 2030
[xxx] Hishaam Ghinaam, Seven Messages of MBS
[xxxi] Emile Hokayem, Fraught Relations: Saudi Ambition and American Anger, IISS, December 6, 2022, Accessed https://encr.pw/5RbWN September 25, 2023
[xxxii] Emile Hokayem
[xxxiii]MBS says rise in oil price based on market stability, Al-Arabiya, September 21, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/LuG4r September 29, 2023
[xxxiv] Giorgio Cafiero, Analysis: The Russia-Ukraine War and the Views from Saudi Arabia, Aljazeera, October 24, 2022, Accessed https://encr.pw/O1slr September 4, 2023
[xxxv] Kon Kakhlin, Interview of MBS shows rising global role of the Kingdom
[xxxvi]Samuel Willner
[xxxvii]Joe Biden, Why I am Going to Saudi Arabia, New York Times
[xxxviii] Hishaam Ghinaam, Saudi-US Negotiation and Issue of Palestine, Majallah (An Arabic Weekly), September 8, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/oJVS1 September 20, 2023
[xxxix] Emile Hokayem
[xl]Dr Hisham Alghannam
[xli] Hishaam Ghinaam, New Trends in Saudi Foreign Policy
[xlii] Emile Hokayem
[xliii] Nadeem Ahmad Munakal, The Impact and Implications of China’s Growing Influence in the Middle East, The Diplomat, July 09, 2022, Accessed https://l1nq.com/h9v5d September 22, 2023
[xliv]China Saudi Arabia Strengthens Partnership on Energy Defence, Aljazeera English, December 09, 2022, Accessed https://acesse.dev/2qtaV December 29, 2022
[xlv]Srinivasan & Ismail, Saudi Switch to Yuan Seen as Symbolic, not threat to dollar, Bloomberg, March 15, 2022, Accessed https://encr.pw/Oyp82 October 1, 2023
[xlvi]MBS on Vision 2030
[xlvii]James Rothwell, Saudi Arabia Considers China Bid to Build its First Nuclear Program, The Independent, August 25, 2023, Accessed https://encr.pw/Vysq2 September 22, 2023
[xlviii]Abdullah Babood, Why China is Emerging as a Main Promoter of Stability in Straits of Hormuz, Carnegie Middle East centre, May 24, 2023, Accessed https://acesse.dev/Q5Oke September 22, 2023
[xlix]Dr. Hisham Alghannam
[l] Hishaam Ghinaam, Saudi-US Negotiation and Issue of Palestine
[li] Hishaam Ghinaam, Saudi-US Negotiation and Issue of Palestine
[lii] Emile Hokayem
[liii] Emile Hokayem
[liv]Anshu & Andrew, OPEC in Changing World, Council on Foreign Relations, March 9, 2022, Accessed https://l1nq.com/m2pQN September 14, 2023
[lv]Anshu & Andrew
[lvi]Karen E. Young
[lvii]Karen E. Young
[lviii]Russia-Saudi Relations “as Warm as Weather in Riyadh” Prince Abdul Aziz says, Arab News, June 17, 2022, Accessed https://arab.news/wrypt October 2, 2023
[lix] Dr. Hisham Alghannam, Saudi-US Relations: New Priorities in Changing Time, Gulf International Forum, September 11, 2023, Accessed https://acesse.dev/LRFfG September 28, 2023
[lx] Emile Hokayem
[lxi]Bernard Haykel, Mending Saudi-US Relationship, Al-Arabia, July 15, 2022, Accessed https://ury1.com/URDee September 12, 2023
[lxii]Rosie Bsheer, How Mohammad bin Salman Transformed Saudi Arabia, The Nation, May 21, 2018, Accessed https://tinyurl.com/memztxpy September 12, 2023
[lxiii]Karen E. Young
[lxiv]MBS on Vision 2030
[lxv]Dr. Hisham Alghannam
[lxvi]MBS: Kingdom is the Story of the Century
[lxvii]MBS: Kingdom is the Story of the Century
[lxviii]Cryl Fourneris, An Era of Change for Saudi Arabia, Euro News, June 23, 2023, Accessed https://l1nq.com/35RSW September 28, 2023
[lxix]Adel Andel Ghafar, A New Kingdom of Saud, Brooking, February 14, 2018, Accessed https://acesse.dev/OGxAR September 27, 2023
[lxx] Ten Things the Saudi CP said you need to know
[lxxi]Samuel Willner
[lxxii]Abdullah Bin Bijad Al-Otaibi, Laying the Foundation for Founding Day, Al-Arabia, February 20, 2022, Accessed https://rb.gy/ovfsl September 14, 2023
[lxxiii] MBS on Vision 2030
[lxxiv]Ben Hubbard, Saudi Prince, Asserting Powers, Bring Clerics to the Heel, New York Times, your Times, November 7, 2017, Accessed https://ethiopanorama.com/?p=63055 October 4, 2023
[lxxv]Ben Hubbard, Saudi Prince, Asserting Powers, Bring Clerics to the Heel, New York Times, November 7, 2017, Accessed https://ethiopanorama.com/?p=63055October 1, 2023
[lxxvi] Hishaam Ghinaam, Seven Messages of MBS
[lxxvii]Adel Andel Ghafar, A New Kingdom of Saud
[lxxviii] Modavi Al-Rashid, Beyond Tradition and Modernity: Dilemmas of Transformation in Saudi Arabia, Aljazeera Centre for Studies, May 14, 2018
[lxxix]IMF on Saudi Women
[lxxx]IMF has a Different Story on Saudi Women, BBC Hindi, September 7, 2023, Accessed https://tinyurl.com/muztmcpb September 20, 2023
[lxxxi]Sultan Althari, Saudi Arabia’s Cultural renaissance will Unleash the Kingdom’s Creative Potential, Al-Arabia, January 13, 2021, Accessed https://encr.pw/QS6dX October 1, 2023
[lxxxii]Karim Zidan