The Egyptian National Elections Authority (NEA), headed by Walid Hamza, conducted the Presidential Election in Egypt in two rounds. In the first round, around 14 million Egyptian expatriates voted at 121 Egyptian embassies and consulates from December 1 to December 3, 2023. In the second round, 45 percent of the 67 million domestic voters casted their votes from December 10 to December 12, 2023. The NEA announced the result of the Presidential Election on December 18 in which incumbent President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi won with 89.6 percentage of votes.
Egypt held its Presidential Election amidst unprecedented national, regional, and global challenges. Egypt has been hit hard by years of austerity and, more recently, the consequences of Covid 19 and the fallout from the Ukraine conflict, with the Egyptian pound losing more than 50 percent of its value against the US dollar. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer, traditionally importing most of its grains from Eastern Europe. The rising prices of grains and the declining value of its currency have put the Egyptian population under immense pressure. The Presidential Election in Egypt is also being held at a time when the Hamas-Israel War has increased the possibility of regional conflict in the West Asia region. Egypt is mainly at the crossroads in this war because, it has a border in the Sinai Peninsula with Gaza, which not only threatens its national security but also increases the possibility of the inflow of more than one million Palestinians for protection which will increase the burden on its fragile economy. Traditionally, the Egyptians have openly supported the Palestinian statehood cause, which is not entirely in consonance with the Egyptian regime’s traditional position on its Peace Treaty[i] with Israel. Against this backdrop, the paper aims to assess the presidential election and its implications on Egypt’s domestic and regional politics.
Incumbent President Sisi’s Election Agenda
General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2018 for a second four-year term. Constitutional amendments, passed in a referendum in 2019, added two years to his second term and allowed him to run for a third, six-year term till 2030. The incumbent President Sisi announced his candidature for the presidential post when attending the “Story of Homeland: Between Vision and Achievement” conference at Al-Massa Hotel in the New Administrative Capital set up in Cairo on September 30, 2023. The conference highlighted the Egyptian government’s achievements and projects implemented over the past years and the challenges facing the country. Sisi told the attendees at the conference that “if progress, prosperity, and development come at the price of hunger and deprivation, Egyptians do not shy away from progress! Don’t dare say: It is better to eat.”[ii] President Sisi’s gaffe in telling Egyptians to go hungry came at a time when he was pursuing multi-billion-dollar megaprojects, including 58 billion dollars in New Administrative Capital and 8 billion dollars in Suez Canal Expansion Plan, and when the Egyptian economy has been adversely impacted by the food insecurity post-Ukraine Crisis.[iii]
The election was expected to take place in April 2024; but it was held earlier to consolidate Sisi’s legitimacy before embarking on more currency devaluation and austerity measures, which has been stalling for long, despite pledges to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international donors.[iv]According to this view, the election would provide Sisi more cover – legal and popular – to adopt such drastic economic measures.
Identifying the Opposition
The Opposition[v] in Egypt accused the current government on several counts, including on suppression of freedom of expression, arresting thousands, collapsing local currency, increasing poverty rates, and rising foreign debts.[vi] By focussing on these issues, the Opposition had hoped to expand the margin for organizing and reviving street politics. One of the candidates, Ahmad Tantawi of the Nasserist-leaning Karama Party, aborted his presidential bid after a week of harassment and arrests of his supporters by the authorities.[vii]Another leading opposition figure is Gameela Ismail, the head of the quasi-liberal Dastour Party. Her short-lived campaign ended on October 10, under pressure from the party’s rank-and-file members. For unknown reasons, another prospective candidate retired Lt. Gen. Mahmoud Hegazi failed to get the approval from the Security Council of the Armed Forces, a requirement for army personnel contesting election.[viii]
The official Gazette published the final list of the candidates on November 9, 2023. The list included incumbent President Sisi along with three other candidates with the consent of the security services: Abdel Sanad Yamama, the head of the Al-Wafd Party;[ix] Hazem Omar, the head of the Republican People’s Party;[x]and Farid Zahran, the head of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party.[xi]
Compared to other candidates, Sisi has gained the most significant number of endorsements from citizens who must complete the endorsement process officially in the Notary Offices[xii] and the Parliament. In around 20 days, Sisi secured endorsements from 424 Parliament Members and 1.13 million citizens who endorsed Sisi’s candidature in notary offices. According to the Egyptian Election Law, any citizen who wishes to run for President position must first obtain endorsement from at least 25,000 citizens in 15 or more governorates out of 29.[xiii]
Challenges for the Sisi government
Recently, the Gulf countries showed reluctance to support Sisi with financial loans. Since he came to power in 2013, President Sisi’s government has relied on aid from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), mainly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and, to some extent, Kuwait, to stabilize his regime. It is estimated that over $100 billion in funds from the Gulf had flowed to Cairo in the form of Central Bank deposits, fuel assistance, and other forms of aid since that time.[xiv] Unlike in the past, GCC countries in particular Saudi Arabia now seek greater accountability about aid that they extend to other countries.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2023, “We need to see reforms. We are taxing our people. We are also expecting others to do the same in their efforts. We want to help, but we want you also to do your part.”[xv] In Egypt, the ruling establishment, including military and security apparatuses fears that the Egyptian government is losing credibility after investing tens of billions in mega-projects.
The US has also imposed conditions on the military and economic aid that it gives to Egypt. Since 2013, successive American administrations demanded that Egypt implement political reforms and release prisoners to get the aid. President Joe Biden’s administration withheld $85 million in military aid for what he described as an “egregious human rights record” in September 2023.[xvi] On the contrary, China is continuously providing aid to Egypt, as its aid is not tied the human rights records of Egypt. However, Egypt’s aid from China is meagre compared to what the GCC and the US provide. Therefore, Egypt needs to implement the reforms to receive aid from Gulf countries and the US.
At the regional level, the Gaza War will have more significant implications for the national security of Egypt because it will not only activate the terrorists in the Sinai Peninsula but also burden the fragile economy due to the possibility of a large number of Palestinians fleeing from Gaza. Egypt, therefore, has been active in proposing options for peaceful and early resolution of the Gaza situation. The Ukraine conflict has already increased the prices of food and fuel, which Sisi has to address to remove the social tension from the society so that another “Arab Spring” does not re-occur.
Conclusion
In the present domestic politics of Egypt, Sisi’s victory in the presidential election was imminent. However, Sisi’s new government will continue to face deteriorating economic conditions that have increased the hardships of the Egyptians. Besides, the Gaza War and its implications on Egypt’s security and the growing economic stress could generate political tension. Given the nature of politics in the West Asia region, if Sisi can improve the economy, he will be able to strengthen his position in Egypt.
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*Dr. Arshad, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal
Endnotes
[i]The Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty was signed between President Anwar Sadat and Prime Minister Menachem Begin on March 26, 1979, following the Camp David Accords, mediated by US President Jimmy Carter. The treaty became a significant source of Egypt’s close relationship with Israel and the US.
[ii]“As hunger bites, is Egypt ready to turn its back on its president?,” The Guardian, October 6, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/bI258, December 5, 2023
[iii]“President El-Sisi attends “Story of Homeland” 2023 conference,” State Information Service, September 30, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/chsOW, December 5, 2023
[iv] “Egypt presidential elections: Here’s what you need to know,” AlJazeera, December 1, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/otGHQ, December 6, 2023
[v] Political parties, independent unions, media organizations, student groups, community networks, and human rights organizations
[vi]“Egypt: Who can run against Sisi in the 2024 presidential elections?,” Middle East Monitor, March 27, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/CEH37, December 7, 2023
[vii]“Aspiring presidential candidate Ahmed Tantawi targeted by Predator Spyware,” Madamasr, September 14, 2023, accessed https://shorturl.at/zPX03, December 8, 2023
[viii]“Much ado about nothing: Egypt’s inconsequential presidential elections,” Arab Reform Initiative, November 28, 2023, accessed https://rb.gy/cchkdg, December 13, 2023.
[ix] It is a liberal nationalist party. It is recently controlled by a group of businessmen competing for favors from the ruling establishment.
[x]It is an obscure party with members from Hosni Mubarak’s now-defunct National Democratic Party. Omar routinely praises the regime and Sisi.
[xi] This party has been part of post-coup cabinet in 2013 and also stroke a deal with the security services. Zahran got the approval from the security services and 20 parliamentarians. Throughout the presidential campaign, Zahran hardly criticised the regime. Instead, he only targeted the Muslim Brotherhood.
[xii]Notary public offices perform certain services and duties ranging from attesting the signature and execution of documents, authenticating the execution and content of documents.
[xiii]“Egypt’s election authority: None of presidential hopefuls submitted candidacy papers on 1st day,” State Information Service, October 5, 2023, accessed https://t.ly/24CcU, December 13, 2023.
[xiv]“Why unconditional Gulf financing for Egypt is dwindling,” The New Arab, February 15, 2023, accessed
https://t.ly/SMfP4, December 15, 2023.
[xv]“Saudi Finance Minister says unconditional foreign aid is over,” Saudi Gazette, January 18, 2023, accessed
https://t.ly/LrpXe, December 16, 2023
[xvi]“Murphy: The Biden administration must finish the job and withhold the full $320 million in aid to Egypt until their human rights record improves,” Chris Murphy, September 12, 2023, accessed https://rb.gy/5mtf98, December 15, 2023