On November 24, 2023, at the 14th East African Community’s Heads of the State Summit held in Arusha-Tanzania, the leaders decided to incorporate Somalia as the eighth member of the grouping[i]. Later, at a ceremony held in Entebbe, Uganda, on December 16, 2023 the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mahoumed, signed the Treaty of accession in the presence of the current Chair of the East African Community (EAC) Salva Kiir (President of South Sudan). This is a significant political milestone for Somalia which after almost a decade of intense lobbying was finally admitted to the EAC[ii]. Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mahoumed, considered Somalia’s entry into the EAC as a ‘beacon of hope’ and according to him, “admission into the East African Community has long been an aspirational goal for both the government and the people of Somalia. We are a significant country in the region which can contribute a lot and we will benefit from them.”[iii] The East African Community which has a combined population of around 300 million people with a growth rate around 6.2% per year is seeking to deepen the regional integration, as it will ensure greater economic prosperity, security and unity for the region. Somalia has much to offer to EAC in terms of its strategic location, natural resources and its entrepreneurial spirit. Somalia’s incorporation in EAC could increase the Community’s competitiveness and expand its market. However, Somalia is grappling with terrorism and piracy which pose a serious concern for the EAC member states. Somalia’s membership of EAC presents both opportunities and challenges for Somalia and EAC. Thus, this paper examines the impact and implications of Somalia’s accession to the EAC.
Background
It was under the leadership of President Hassan Sheikh Mahoumed that Somalia first applied to join East African Community in 2012 but its application was turned down since it did not fulfill the basic requirements for the EAC membership as outlined in Article 3(3) of EAC’s Treaty of Establishment. According to Article 3(3) of the Treaty of Establishment, the members of the Community must adhere to the universally acceptable principles of good governance, democracy, rule of law, contribute to the strengthening of the East African region and to have social and economic policies that are compatible with those of the Community[iv]. This was a period when Somalia was grappling with the after effects of the civil war, political instability, terrorism, inter- clan conflicts and piracy. Somalia’s hopes to be integrated with the EAC were rekindled when troubled South Sudan and conflict-ridden DRC were admitted to the grouping in 2016 and 2022, respectively. In 2022, when HE Hassan Sheikh Mahoumed was reelected as the President of Somalia, Somalian government reapplied to join EAC and urged EAC to fast-track Somalia’s admission into the grouping. The Somalian government appointed its special envoy to the EAC, Dr, Abdusalam H.Omer, to take this agenda forward. Moreover, the President lobbied for Somalia’s admission into EAC by meeting the leaders of the EAC member states in early 2023 and Somalia also invited EAC’s Secretary General Peter Mathukito to Somalia to meet with Somalian government officials.[v] Somalia’s bid to join EAC received a boost in January 2023, when a team of experts from EAC member states visited Somalia to assess its readiness to join the Community[vi]. The verification team reviewed Somalia’s institutional and legal framework policies, its economic performance, trade policies, its development strategies and potential contributions to EAC’s integration efforts. On June 6, 2023, at the 21st Extraordinary Heads of State Summit of EAC the report on the verification of Somalia’s application to join EAC was adopted in Burundi. EAC’s Member States like Uganda and Kenya were first to put their weight behind Somalia while Tanzania and Burundi initially, were apprehensive of Somalia’s admission to EAC given the activities of militant organizations in Somalia.
Prospects of Somalia’s Membership for EAC
In the contemporary times, regional integration has become an instrument of enhancing economic and social interests, and EAC is aiming to deepen its integration by becoming a political federation by 2026. Given that, EAC’s bid for expansion aims to integrate as many as 10 members by the close of the decade particularly the Horn of Africa states such as Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea, Somalia was a value addition.
Somalia’s admission into the EAC as its eighth member opens up a new chapter in EAC’s growth story since it enlarges EAC’s market size which is not only limited to the increasing number of consumers but also includes variety of resources and opportunities that Somalia brings to the table[vii]. Somalia has a resilient private sector with its links with the Somali diaspora across the region. Somalia has a thriving entrepreneurial diaspora residing in most of the EAC member countries which will increase trading opportunities for the region. A large number of Somalian entrepreneurs have made major investment in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda particularly in the field of real estate such as Shamo Plast Industries in Tanzania, Zambia and Uganda. Thus, Somalia’s membership of EAC will provide an opportunity to leverage the diaspora network to drive trade, investment and knowledge within the region[viii].
Besides, Somalia has rich natural reserves such as oil and natural gas, potential minerals, untapped marine resources, fertile land, livestock and fisheries. This presents major opportunities for extractive industries, agricultural production and for fisheries development which can lead to the overall economic advancement of the East African region.
In addition to this, Somalia has an extensive coastline spanning over 3,000 km. Somalia is strategically located at the intersection of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, alongside the key trade corridors and in a region where most of the countries are competing to establish their military bases, Somalia provides a gateway to the East African Community to access the major maritime trade routes making it a key hub for regional trade with increased connectivity. Thus, Somalia’s membership will boost in the region’s blue economy as it will connect the East African region to Arabian Peninsula through Gulf of Aden. However, piracy in the Indian Ocean remains a major challenge in this regard[ix].
Prospects for Somalia
Somalia in particular will benefit economically through its integration into EAC. The bloc currently comprises the total GDP of around 305.3 billion dollars and its total trade for the year 2022-23 stood at 78.7 billion dollars with intra-EAC trade growing by 11.2%.[x] Somalia’s accession to EAC is extremely significant for its economic growth and development, as it facilitates Somalia to gain access to a major market comprising over 300 million people across the region which can boost Somalia’s export potential exponentially and thereby resulting in an increased economic growth. In addition to this the harmonization of trade policies and regulations within EAC can ease the cross-border trade for Somalian entrepreneurs by reducing the trade barriers and fostering a more conducive environment for trade and commerce. It is also significant as it will provide Somalia an opportunity to diversify its trade portfolio whereby Somalian entrepreneurs can explore new export opportunities with a larger market base. The trade diversification will reduce Somalian economy’s reliance on few key industries such as livestock, fisheries, and agriculture and will foster its economic resilience. Moreover, Somalia’s membership of EAC will bring about increased foreign direct investment particularly in the sectors such as infrastructure and manufacturing and thereby enhance the employment prospects for the Somalian youth and industrial development in Somalia, given that Somalia has a rich demography wherein around 73% of its population is under the age of 30[xi]. The Somalian youth will also be able to acquire new skills as EAC also encourages cooperation in the field of education and skill building through educational exchange programs, scholarships and vocational training opportunities within EAC and thereby making them more competent. Besides the EAC’s membership will facilitate the ease of movement within the region for the Somalian youth with regard to work or education in the EAC member states. This will also result in the increase in transborder infrastructural projects such as construction of new roads and ports which will help in improving connectivity.
Somalia can improve its multilateral and fiscal standing as it joined the grouping at a time when the United Nations Security Council has lifted the arms embargo on Somalia in December 2023 followed by the IMF granting Somalia an extended credit line of 100 million US dollars, which implies that Somalia has strongly implemented the reforms that help strengthen its key economic and financial institutions. It has also attained debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative in December 2023. As a result of this the international lending agencies such as the World Bank, African Development Bank and IMF will now classify Somalia as a creditworthy country and it will be able to access concessional loans[xii].
Politically, with its EAC membership Somalia will be able to exhibit its commitment to regional stability, unity and development given that Somalia will now be able to lend its voice to the regional peace and security initiatives and will be able to work hand in hand with the EAC member states to tackle the common security threats such as terrorism, maritime and cyber security threats. Somalia will have an additional platform for diplomatic dialogue and fostering partnerships. Somalia itself has faced several security challenges such as political instability, conflict and terrorism and its incorporation into EAC allows for sharing experience, exchange of knowledge and support in the matters of security and governance given that the majority of the troop contributing countries for the African Union Mission for Somalia came from the EAC states like Kenya, Uganda and Burundi[xiii].
Potential Challenges of Somalia’s membership of EAC
Somalia’s membership is beneficial for both Somalia and EAC, however, it’s journey within EAC will not be without challenges and more significantly terrorism poses a transnational security threat to the East African Community and to the neighboring states. The presence of al- Shabab militant group within Somalia remains to be a severe threat to Somalia and for its neighboring states such as Kenya and Uganda which have witnessed al -Shabab attacks in the past.[xiv] Although, al- Shabab has retreated from some of its key areas following the military operation launched by the Somalian government in 2022,but it still remains a considerable security threat for the region, as visa requirements do not apply to the citizens of EAC member states to move across the region..[xv] Al- Shabab might leverage this opportunity and will increase its reach across the region. This will also result in the spread of small arms and light weapons and smuggling across Somalia’s borders in EAC member states of South Sudan, Kenya and Uganda. EAC member states such as Kenya, Uganda and Burundi have contributed troops to Somalia on the request of the Somalian government for its counter insurgency operation which began in August 2023 and are also the troop contributing countries to the African Union Mission to Somalia fighting the Al Shabab militants and hence familiar with the security situation in Somalia.
In addition to this the strained relations between Kenya and Somalia may pose another major challenge for Somalia’s deeper integration into the EAC region. Somalia has been embroiled in rift with Kenya over the maritime border dispute in the Indian Ocean, as the contested region has major deposits of petroleum and gas, marine resources and maritime transportation services.[xvi] Kenya maintains that it should run in the straight perpendicular line from the point where countries border meet, while Somalia claimed that the sea border should run south east, to the coast where its land border with Kenya meets the sea. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2021 ruled in the favor of Somalia however, the Kenyan government rejected the decision. This resulted in Kenya declining to take part in the oral hearings of the court citing unfairness and biases by ICJ[xvii]. The relations between the two EAC states further estranged in 2021, over the Jubba land issue leading to Somalia expelling the Kenyan Ambassador and recalled its Ambassador from Nairobi[xviii]. Besides when Kenya pledged to open a consulate at Somaliland, Somalia accused Kenya of intervening with its internal affairs and this led both the countries severing their diplomatic ties with each other. However, with Somalia joining EAC it provides a platform to both the states to resolve their maritime issues and de-escalate their tensions[xix].
Moreover, Somalia’s strained relations with Somaliland also pose a challenge given that most of the EAC Member States have their diplomatic presence in both the territories. Previously Somalia has shunned its diplomatic ties with Kenya, over the Somaliland issue and presently Somalia’s relations with Ethiopia have become estranged over Ethiopia and Somaliland deal over establishing a naval base at Somaliland’s red sea port Berber, since Somalia considers self-governing region of Somaliland as a part of its territory and considers any international recognition of Somaliland as an attack on Somalia’s sovereignty[xx].
Conclusion
Somalia’s incorporation into EAC as its eighth member is a long due strategic decision that breaks Somalia’s isolation from its Southern neighbors and makes it an active regional player. It promises mutual benefits for both EAC and Somalia including both economic and political. As far as EAC is concerned, Somalia’s membership enriches the groupings diversity and strengthens EAC’s position as a significant regional bloc. Although Somalia’s membership of EAC comes with its own set of challenges but that can be resolved through adoption of appropriate measures and collaborative action.
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*Dr. Gauri Narain Mathur, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
[i] The current members of EAC are: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia.
[ii] Rahma Adid. ‘Somalia’s Journey Towards East African Community’s Integration’. Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies. 5 September 2023. https://horninstitute.org/somalias-journey-towards-east-african-community-eac-integration/
[iii] Bashir Mahomed Cato. ‘ Somalia has joined the EAC Regional Block: What Happens Next’. Al Jazeera. 29 November 2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/29/somalia-has-joined-the-eac-regional-bloc-what-happens-next
[iv] ‘ The Treaty for the Establishment of the East African Community’. East African Community. 20 August 2007. https://www.eala.org/uploads/The_Treaty_for_the_Establishment_of_the_East_Africa_Community_2006_1999.pdf
[v] William Maudok. ‘Somalia Officially Admitted to EAC’. Citizen Daily. 25 November 2023. https://onecitizendaily.com/index.php/2023/11/25/somalia-officially-admitted-to-eac/
[vi] Dr. Abdurahman Baadiyow. ‘ Somalia’s Fast -Tracking Accession to the EAC: It is Time to Fly with Two Fully fledged Wings’. 10 March 2023. Wardheer News. https://wardheernews.com/somalias-fast-tracking-accession-to-the-eac-it-is-time-to-fly-with-two-fully-fledged-wings/#google_vignette
[vii] ‘ What Somalia’s entrance into EAC means for East Africa’. The Exchange Africa. 25 November 2023. https://theexchange.africa/countries/somalia-enters-eac-bloc/
[viii] Charles Deitz. ‘ Somalia Joins East African Community- Historic Day or Premature Decision’. African Business. 27 November 2023. https://african.business/2023/11/quick-reads/somalia-joins-east-african-community
[ix] Teresa Nogueira Pinto. ‘Somalia at a Critical Juncture’. GIS. 4 January 2024. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/somalia-eac/
[x] Charles Deitz. ‘ Somalia Joins East African Community- Historic Day or Premature Decision’. African Business. 27 November 2023. https://african.business/2023/11/quick-reads/somalia-joins-east-african-community
[xi] Abdul Rashid Ahmed Said. ‘Benefits and Advantages of Somalia joining the East African Community: Potential Monopoly Concerns’. Medium. 25 November 2023. https://medium.com/@abdirashiidahmed65/benefits-and-disadvantages-of-somalia-joining-the-east-african-community-eac-potential-monopoly-d548b5815ba9
[xii] Rene Brosius. ‘Somalia becomes the Eight Member of EAC: Back to the Roots’. African Legal Studies. 8 December 2023. https://africanlegalstudies/2023/12/8
[xiii] Henry Otafire. ‘Accessing Somalia’s EAC readiness: Opportunities and Challenges’. Great Lakes Region Policy Insights. Great Lakes Institute of policy studies. 12 February 2023. https://www.glissafrica.org
[xiv] ‘ Accessing Al Sabab’s Threat to the Region as Somalia Joins EAC”. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. 8 December 2023. https://acleddata.com/2023/12/08/special-report-kenya-somalia-assessing-al-shabaabs-threat-to-the-region-as-somalia-joins-the-east-africa-community/
[xv] Halkano Wario and Rahel Haseen. ‘Too much too Fast? Somalia Joins East African Community’. Institue for Security Studies. 1 November 2023. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/too-much-too-fast-somalia-joins-the-east-african-community
[xvi] Meron Elias. ‘ UN Court Decision A Fresh Test for Kenua-Somalia Ties’. International Crisis Group. 15 October 2021. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/kenya/un-court-decision-fresh-test-kenya-somalia-ties
[xvii] Fatuma Ahmed Ali and Doreen Muyonga. ‘ The Current Crisis in Kenya- Somalia Relation’. ISPI. 7 May 2021. https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/current-crisis-kenya-somalia-relations-30360
[xviii] Jubbaland is an autonomous province of Somalia which shares its border with Kenya is crucial security partner to Kenya in the battle against al-Shabaab. But Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) wants to centralize power and remove Jubbaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe). During the 2019 elections Jubba land election saw a tense confrontation between Somalia’s central government and Jubba land soldiers backed by Ethiopian and Kenyan troops.
[xix] Bashir Mahomed Cato. ‘ Somalia has joined the EAC Regional Block: What Happens Next’. Al Jazeera. 29 November 2023. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/29/somalia-has-joined-the-eac-regional-bloc-what-happens-next
[xx] Ibid