Under the new President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, specific shifts in the foreign policy of Maldives, relating to economic and security cooperation outreach, has garnered considerable international and domestic attention. Dr. Muizzu won the presidential elections held in September 2023 backed by the Progressive Party of Maldives and the Progressive National Congress coalition (PPM-PNC). After assuming office on 17th November 2023, he described himself as “pro-Maldives”, who will work for the betterment of Maldivians’[1]and outlined his foreign and domestic policy priorities.
His foreign policy priorities at the broader level, emphasised on pursuing friendly and respectable relations with neighbours and other countries,[2] safeguarding national security through instrument of diplomacy and ‘ensuring no foreign military presence on Maldives soil’.[3]The new administration in Male has stressed on playing a constructive role in the global arena and reshaping the foreign policy in alignment with the current realities of the world’.[4] Several developments, however, indicate that it is trying to readjust its relations with India, and trying to explore possibilities for deeper engagement with China and the countries in the Middle East.
Middle East: Looking for enhanced cooperation
Over the years, the Maldives has steadily improved its cooperation with the countries in the Middle East, who became important development and investment partners. For instance, the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) as well as Abu Dhabi Fund for Development have contributed significantly to various development projects in number of sectors in Maldives. The President’s unofficial visit to the UAE (6 November 2023), soon after the election victory, to attend the 52nd Union Day of the United Arab Emirates, can be seen as recognition of special ties Maldives enjoys with the countries in the Middle East.[5] The UAE announced $80 million for the development of Velana International Airport, soon after the visit. The Kuwait Fund and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Fund for International Development are other important agencies that are supporting various projects in the Maldives, which are expected to continue under the new administration.
Agreements signed, during the President Muizzu’s first overseas visit to Turkey (November 26-28, 2023) indicate, Maldives exploring opportunities for collaboration in economic and security matters. During the visit, an “Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation” was signed to boost trade relations, which are minimal at present.[6] According to reports, Maldives also signed an agreement (worth $560 million) with Turkey to acquire military drones to patrol its vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) (nearly 9 lakh square kilometres)[7]. This move is a departure from the past, as India and the Maldives are jointly patrolling the waters for years, given the geo-graphical proximity and shared interest in tackling the traditional and non-traditional threats in the region.
China: Referred as a closest ally
The reference to China as the island nation’s “closest ally and development partner”, by the President of Maldives, during his official visit, has set the tone for future bilateral relations.[8]At the personal level, the President served as the Governor to Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2017, a first Maldivian to serve in that position. The implementation of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China, and pursuing projects that can align with the BRI, are going to be a priority. The FTA with China was stalled by the previous MDP government, due to differences, within the ruling MDP over the role of China.. The former Speaker of the Parliament and the ex-MDP leader Mohamed Nasheed was critical of developing close relations with China, alleging that it led to ‘land grab and huge debt burden for the island nation”.[9]
The commercial port project and the airport project, announced by the new government, are considered as key strategic projects aligned with the vision of the BRI’.[10] One can also expect more tourist inflow from China, which saw a decline due to pandemic. China’s contribution in various sectors may grow, which is evident from the range of agreements signed between the two countries during the official visit, from disaster management to blue economy, agriculture development, housing infrastructure, media etc. [11] China pledged $130 million as free aid, for implementation of various development projects. [12]
Maldives chose to attend the Second China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation (CIORF) held on 7-8 December 2023, instead of the Sixth National Security Adviser (NSA) level, meeting of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) held on 7th December 2023 in Mauritius. India, Sri Lanka, Mauritius are members of this regional security grouping along with Maldives. The government has also given permission to a Chinese research vassal, XIANG YANG HONG 3, to make a port call in February 2024, emphasising that “port calls not only enhance bilateral ties but also demonstrate the centuries old tradition of welcoming vessels from friendly countries”.[13] Maldives decided to allow the Chinese research vessel only for routine port call for replenishment and not for conducting research, given the concerns in India.
It is early to say if the deeper engagement with China will impact Maldives relations with the West. The previous PPM government (2013-2018) vehemently opposed the West’s stand on the internal human rights situation in Maldives. In contrast, under the present PPM-PNC led government, early signs points to a willingness to interact at multiple levels. For instance, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. John C. Aquilino, was in Male from Jan. 20-22. Both sides discussed enhancing partnership for bolstering national and regional security’.[14] The US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu will be visiting Male in February 2024.
India- Maldives Relations: Addressing apprehensions
The Opposition PPM-PNC led “India-Out” campaign started in 2020 is instrumental in influencing the present policy towards India. The presence of nearly eighty Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives, to operate the two helicopters gifted by India, for medical and emergency evacuation purposes has been portrayed by the ruling PPM-PNC, as detrimental to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Maldives.[15] Therefore, soon after assuming office, the President asked India to withdraw military personnel “to honour and respect the desire of the Maldivian people”.[16] Other than this issue, Maldives decision not to attend the NSA level meeting of the CSC and not to renew the hydrography project with India, signed in 2019, is seen as another setback in relations.
The position taken by the Maldives government aside, the helicopters gifted by India were ‘useful in carrying out more than 500 medical evacuations, saving 523 Maldivian lives over the last five years. Similarly, more than 450 multifaceted missions have been carried out to safeguard the maritime security of Maldives’[17]. In response to Maldives request to withdrawal of Indian troops, India stressed that cooperation with Maldives is based on shared challenges and priorities’.[18] On the heels of these developments, controversy regarding the remarks made by the two Ministers of President’s cabinet on the visit of Indian Prime Minister to Lakshadweep (India’s island state) further pushed the bilateral relations into a delicate pedestal.
Amidst these initial setbacks, Maldives President’s meeting with the Indian Prime Minister on the sidelines of Cop28, led to formation of a High-Level Core Group comprising senior government officials, representing both the countries, to discuss ongoing development projects and issues at the bilateral level’.[19] Despite the current turbulence in bilateral relations, the High Level Core Group meeting, which took place on 14th January 2024 mentioned about the need to take forward the bilateral cooperation and finding a mutually workable solution’.[20] The Second meeting of the High Level Core Group was held on 2nd February 2024, in New Delhi.
Appealing to domestic constituency through foreign policy
The Maldives’ present policy approach towards India is influenced by the domestic political considerations. The demand for withdrawal of Indian troops is in line with PPM-PNC’s “India-Out” campaign started in 2020, which gained traction in some section of Maldives. By equating the withdrawal of Indian military personnel with respecting the will of the people, Maldives President is trying to respond directly to the electorate who voted for the PPM-PNC alliance in the Presidential elections.
Nonetheless, developments between India and Maldives have generated considerable response within the Maldives. The Opposition MDP, said comments targeting India by senior officials of new government are not “isolated incidents but the result of a hate-mongering campaign by PPM/PNC’s leadership”.[21] Former President of Maldives, Mohammed Nasheed also condemned the remarks by Maldivian minister, “towards a leader of a key ally that is instrumental for Maldives’s economy and security”.[22]
The Maldives foreign policy posture has brought two Opposition parties, the MDP and the Democrats, to work collaboratively in Parliament on issues affecting the county. [23]The joint statement released by both these Opposition parties, demonstrates the resolve to pressurise the government to course correct its relations with India. The statement said, “alienating any development partner, and especially the country’s most long- standing ally will be extremely detrimental to the long-term development of the country”.[24]
The founding leader of the PPM, Abdulla Yameen decided to leave the parent party, to float a new party, can also upset the electoral prospects of the PNC in the upcoming Parliamentary elections. In the face of tough competition from the Opposition, the President seems to be pushing his electoral agenda based on “India-out” campaign. The President asked India to withdraw its military personal by March 15, 2024. The victory of MDP candidate, as a Mayor of Male City, amidst the controversy surrounding India-Maldives relations, also provided scope for the Opposition parties to consolidate support among electorate in the run-up to the Parliamentary elections, scheduled for 17th March 2024.
Assessment
The recent shifts in foreign policy under the new administration, particularly with regard to India, led to concern within the Maldives, as well as in India. Ignoring the benefits of mutual cooperation in economic and security matters may not augur well for the regional peace and security. Thus, there is a need to collaborate on development projects as well as through regional security mechanisms such as the CSC and existing defence cooperation mechanisms. Not acknowledging the contribution of regional security mechanisms such as CSC, can lead to communication gap in combating the mutual threats faced by both the countries, such as rising extremism, drug and human trafficking etc.
India emerged as one of the important development, economic and security partner of the Maldives, in the last few years. The $1.4 billion financial assistance provided by India in 2018, after the formation of the MDP government in Male, helped to address the post pandemic economic needs of the country, in terms of budgetary support, currency swap, lines of credit etc. India being the closest neighbour to Maldives, its contribution in disaster response in the past cannot be ruled out. Help extended to the island nation in safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity through operation Cactus in 1988, in tackling the impact of Tsunami in 2004, Pandemic related loss, handling the water crisis etc. by India are important gesture in building the trust and friendship between the two nations regardless of the government in place.
Number of bilateral high level exchanges contributed to greater cooperation, practically in almost all areas. India supported development projects and investments in the island nation are designed to benefit the common Maldivians and are integral part of the Maldives economic development trajectory. The recent example in this regard is soon to be operational new runway at Hanimaadhoo Airport, a $136 million project funded by India, to boost tourism. It is to be noted that, enhanced strategic and economic cooperation with India, under the MDP government did not deter the island nation in engaging with powers beyond the region in the past. It maintained cordial relations with the West, Middle East and China, to further its economic and security interests, but not at the cost of its relations with trusted neighbour India. As far as Maldives relations with China are concerned, India took a position that ‘it is for Maldives to decide about their international relations’.[25] Meanwhile, India will be keenly watching the developments, to ensure that peace and stability is maintained in the region.
At the domestic level, there are a number of challenges that the leadership has to address. Apart from the fluid political situation and impeachment attempts by the Opposition MDP, the President promised a number of initiatives for the growth of the economy, such as developing smart urban centers, employment generation, enhancing tourism sector etc. To implement the pledges made the government needs more FDI inflows in various sectors. Maldives FDI inflows stood at $721.9 million in 2022.[26]China, Singapore, India, the UAE, and the UK are the five major investors in Maldives. The government will also have to address the external debt issue, which is the result of loans borrowed from external actors’ and decline in tourism arrivals in pandemic years. In 2022, Maldives total outstanding external debt stood at $3.5 billion[27]. Debt to China is said to be around $1.3 billion.[28]
High import costs and external debt repayments have put significant pressure on gross foreign reserves, which fell from $790 million in January 2023 to $594.1 million in July 2023.[29] The import dependent economy of Maldives needs the support of external partners to diversify its economic sources. Given these domestic challenges, it remains to be seen, how the new administration in Male, will implement its foreign policy in the future, vital for economic growth, investments and security of Maldives? Meanwhile, the High Level Core Group formed to discuss the bottlenecks in India-Maldives bilateral relations is a positive development amidst the recent setback in relations.
*****
*Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
End Notes
[1] Sachin Parashar, “India not withdrawing forces will imperil democracy in Maldives Imperil democracy in Maldives, defence ties will continue: President Muizzu”, 4 January 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-not-withdrawing-forces-will-imperil-democracy-in-maldives-defence-ties-will-continue-president-muizzu/articleshow/106523430.cms?from=mdr. Accessed, January 6, 2024
[2] The President’s Office, Republic of Maldives, “Inaugural Address by His Excellency Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, President of the Republic of Maldives”, 17 November 2023, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29045.Accessed, January 2, 2024.
[3] Ibi
[4] The Economic Times, “China moots to launch climate information and early warning system in its 2nd Indian Ocean Forum”, 10 December 2023, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-moots-to-launch-climate-information-and-early-warning-system-in-its-2nd-indian-ocean-forum/articleshow/105867716.cms.Accessed, January 1, 2024
[5] Remarks by His Excellency Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, President of the Republic of Maldives, Chief Guest of the Reception held on the occasion of the 52nd Union Day of the United Arab Emirates”, 21 November 2023, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29138. Accessed, December 6, 2024.
[6] The President’s Office, Republic of Maldives, “The Maldives and Türkiye hold Official Talks”, 26 November 2023, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29186.Accessed, January 1, 202
[7] “USD 560 million contract with Turkish company for MNDF military drones”, 16Janury 2024, https://english.adhadhu.com/article/48443. Accessed, January 17, 202
[8] The President’s Office, Republic of Maldives, “Remarks by His Excellency Dr Mohamed Muizzu, President of the Republic of Maldives at the Invest Maldives Forum”, 9 January 2024, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29584.Accessed, January106, 202
[9] “India remains first, won’t allow China to ‘grab’ land, says ex-Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed”, 27 April 2022, he Print, https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-remains-first-wont-allow-china-to-grab-land-says-ex-maldives-president-mohamed-nasheed/932735/. Accessed, December 1, 2023
[10]Ibi
[11] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Maldives, “Key Agreements exchanged between the Maldives and China”, 11 January 2024, https://www.foreign.gov.mv/index.php/en/media-center/news/key-agreements-exchanged-between-the-maldives-and-china.Accessed, January 12, 2024
[12] The President’s Office, Republic of Maldives, “China to provide 920 million Chinese yuan in free aid, states the President”, 13 January 2024, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29641.Accessed, January 16, 2024
[13]Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Maldives, “Statement by the Government of Maldives”, 23 January 2024, https://www.foreign.gov.mv/index.php/en/media-center/news/statement-by-the-government-of-maldives-2024-pr-14.Accessed, December 6, 202
[14] US Indo-Pacific Command, “U.S. INDOPACOM Commander Visits Maldives”, 22 January 2024, https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/3651858/us-indopacom-commander-visits-maldives/.
[15] Mohamed Rehan, “Maldives Informs India on non-renewal of Hydrography agreement”, 15 December 2023, https://edition.mv/news/30645.Accessed, January 3, 2024
[16] The President’s Office, Republic of Maldives, “The Indian Government assures its commitment to respecting the desire of the Maldivian people to abstain from accommodating foreign military presence within the country, says President Dr Muizzu”, 3 December 2023, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29265.Accessed, December 6, 2024.
[17] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Transcript of Weekly Media Briefing by the Official Spokesperson (October 19, 2023)”, 19 October 2023, https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/37199/Transcript_of_Weekly_Media_Briefing_by_the_Official_Spokesperson_October_19_2023. Accessed, January 17, 2024
[18] Ibid
[19] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “First meeting of the India-Maldives High Level Core Group”, 14 January 2024, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/37511/First_meeting_of_the_IndiaMaldives_High_Level_Core_Group. Accessed, 16 January 2024.
[20] Ibi
[21] Maldives Democratic Party, “Statement from MDP calling on the government to take appropriate action against senior officials that made derogatory remarks”, 7 January 2024, https://mdp.org.mv/archives/82128.Accessed, January 13, 202
[22] Mohammed Nasheed, Twitter, 7 January 2024, Accessed, January7, 202
[23]Mariyath Mohamed, “MDP and Democrats to collaborate as opposition”, 24 January 2024, https://edition.mv/news/31232.Accessed, January 25, 202
[24]Maldives Democratic Party, “Joint Press Statement by the Maldivian Democratic Party and The Democrats.”, 24 January 2024, https://mdp.org.mv/archives/82206.Accessed, January 25, 202
[25] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Transcript of Weekly Media Briefing by the Official Spokesperson (January 04, 2024)”, https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/37494/Transcript_of_Weekly_Media_Briefing_by_the_Official_Spokesperson_January_04_2024. Accessed, January 6, 202
[26] Maldives Monetary Authority, Annual Report 2022, https://www.mma.gov.mv/documents/Annual%20Report/2022/AR2022%20(English).pdf.Accessed, January 1, 2024
[27] Ibi
[28] Indian Express, “China agrees to consider restructuring of loans to Maldives: President Muizzu”, 14 January 2024, https://indianexpress.com/article/world/china-restructuring-loans-maldives-president-muizzu-9108270/#:~:text=China%20is%20currently%20the%20Indian,USD%201.3%20billion%20or%20more.Accessed, January 16, 2024
[29] Thailand, UK, India, Germany and France are top five exports markets and the exports stood at $159 million in 2022. Oman, India, UAE, China and Singapore are the top five import markets and total imports stood at $ 3517.7 million. Source, World Bank, “Maldives: Overview”, 4 October 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/maldives/overview.Accessed, January1, 2024.