Mexico’s 2024 election will be the biggest in the country’s history. This is not only due to the sheer number of voters but also because all 32 of the country’s states will hold concurrent elections for local seats. In June 2024, Mexicans will head to the ballot box to elect a new President, 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 128 senators, nine governors, and thousands of local offices. Mexican voters will cast ballots for more than 20,000 posts across the country. This is six times more than the number of posts which were contested during the last general elections in 2018.[i] Of these elections, the most important is the election for the next President of Mexico. The Mexican Constitution allows Presidents to be elected to a single, six-year term in office. While Presidents would previously get inaugurated on December 1, the 2014 electoral reform provides that the next President will take office on October 1, 2024. Senate terms run in conjunction with the Presidential term, and due to the 2014 reform, sitting senators can seek reelection for one term to serve a maximum of 12 years. Deputies are elected to three-year terms and can seek reelection for four consecutive terms, for a maximum of 12 years.
Importance of the Elections
These elections mark a decade since the governing party the leftist Morena (National Regeneration Movement) was established, with President Obrador as its leader. Under his presidency the focus has been on domestic issues. In the economic sector which has been the priority the he has followed a policy of state supporting heavy investments in big infrastructure projects such as railways and increased public spending. This approach has allowed the party to maintain support among its core base which includes the poor and the working class of Mexico. Under President Obrador, foreign policy did not garner much attention, with the President limiting his few visits to countries within the region. Notwithstanding the poor economic growth and security situation in Mexico, President Obrador has enjoyed widespread popularity throughout his presidency. According to various media outlets and polls, he will leave office with highest approval ratings amongst the last four Presidents. His popularity among the voters has seen an increase in support for his party, Morena. In 2023, the party was able to win the elections in the State of Mexico, the province surrounding Mexico City, where the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had been in power without interruption for almost 100 years. Today, Morena and its allies have governorships in two-thirds of the country’s 32 states. President Obrador’s popularity is being viewed as an added advantage for his party’s candidate, Ms. Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City. The election campaign by his party is largely being projected as preservation of the legacy of the past six years of President Obrador’s term in office.
Second, these elections are significant as Mexicans will be electing their first woman President. Though this is not the first time that Mexico has had women on the ballot for the presidential elections, with both major political coalitions nominating women, it is a given that Mexico will have a woman leading the government. This is being viewed as a significant step in the direction of women’s empowerment in the country and establishing more female role models for young girls.
Former Senator Xochitl Gálvez is the candidate of the opposition’s Broad Front for Mexico coalition which includes the centre to centre right leaning PRI, the conservative National Action Party (PAN), and the leftist Party of Democratic Revolution (PRD). This broad left-right coalition is campaigning on the stand that it will work towards stability and unity in an effort to transform Mexico. Senator Gálvez has served as an official for Indigenous affairs under former President Vicente Fox and will likely continue to advocate for the rights of indigenous people and afro-Mexicans and expand the rights of domestic workers. Her policy views on her Presidency also reflect the left-right ideology of her coalition parties. She has stated that, if elected, she would continue the current government’s social pension plans for senior citizens. Senator Gálvez has also proposed to expand these welfare schemes to include people from the middle and lower economic levels while finding means to ensure that fiscal stability is maintained. The development of infrastructure, including quality highways, ports, airports, and public transportation systems, has been highlighted as a priority by the candidate. She has been an advocate for clean energy and has stated that she would support a shift to renewable energy within Mexico and liberalise the energy sector. She has also stated that she wants to take advantage of the United States policy of “near-shoring” of supply chains from Asia, and attract these companies to establish units in Mexico to help boost the latter’s economy and create jobs. While highlighting the failures of the government to protect the people from gang violence and the fight against organised crime, Senator Gálvez has proposed to strengthen the local and state police by providing them access to better intelligence while advocating for the rights and protection of victims of such crimes. Her working-class background and the fact that she has a clean record have helped her establish an image of a common person connected to the people.
Ms. Sheinbaum, the incumbent party’s candidate, aims to continue and strengthen the existing social welfare policies of the government, including scholarships for students and subsidies for farmers. She has also stated that she will continue with the government’s infrastructure development plans for the less developed regions of the country. However, the challenge for her is to show continuity with President Obrador’s policies in key areas such as energy, mining, infrastructure, health, security, and proposed reforms to Mexican institutions, while building her own policy perspectives on these issues and work towards attracting private business investments into Mexico.
Third, whoever is elected President will confront difficulties that arise from stagnant economic growth. The push by the government to support the public sector has led private enterprises to reduce investments in the country. The social spending by the government has led to questions about the fiscal sustainability of these programmes, especially as Mexico continues to recover from the effects of the Covid19 pandemic. If the current plans of President Obrador to increase social pension stipends are approved by Congress, it will further increase pressures on the economy. Both candidates have voiced their support for social spending; nonetheless, it remains to be seen how the new President will balance popular welfare programmes while being able to generate the money to support them. Unequal distribution of wealth and access to public services such as healthcare and education continue to be issues for the electorate. Violence remains one of the country’s most persistent problems. While Mexico has taken steps over the years to curtail the power of the cartels, they continue to control large parts of Mexico.
Fourth, the energy reforms in Mexico have not gotten the benefits envisaged. The state-owned Energy Company continues to lose money despite government support. The energy sovereignty policy of the government has curtailed private–public partnerships and has apparently disadvantaged the private sector. While Senator Gálvez has stated her support for the renewable sector, Ms. Sheinbaum has pointed to continuity with the current energy policy of Mexico to support state enterprises. However, she has also pledged to increase the share of renewable energy in Mexico’s energy mix in an effort to address climate change concerns. With two policies that seem contradictory to each other given the global push for green energy transitions and green economies, the new Mexican President would have to find a policy that allows for increased production in the face of growing demand while creating an environment that will attract investments from home and abroad in green transition.
Fifth, in the region, migration remains an important issue. Flows of migrants across the Western Hemisphere have underscored Mexico’s central role in regional migration management, cementing its new identity as a country of emigration, transit, and destination. Anchored in promoting safe, orderly, and legal migration, Mexico’s migration policy framework under the Obrador Administration has sought to target the root causes of irregular migration and prioritise legal pathways from a human rights perspective. However, as irregular migration has increased, measures relating to migration controls and its enforcement have dominated new policy implementation throughout the country.[ii] Going forward, the new administration will have to design policies that address emigration from Mexico and Mexico as a transit for other migrants. This would require it to work in close collaboration with regional partners both on the north and south of its borders.
Lastly, the elections come in the same year as the US presidential elections, with the two presidential elections taking place five months apart. While Mexico and the United States remain key trading partners for each other, the flow of illegal migrants and drugs will continue to be problem areas in the bilateral relations. With new administrations in both Mexico City and Washington, the dynamic that emerges between the elected leaders will likely shape the course of bilateral relations in the coming decade. It is also important to note that Mexico has taken steps to make it easier for its citizens staying abroad and those who were born abroad to register to vote in the 2024 elections. With the United States home to a large Mexican Diaspora, they will play an important role in the presidential elections of both nations.
Conclusion
For the governing party, these elections are a step towards preserving the legacy of one of their most charismatic leaders while ensuring that they are able to deal with issues of economic stagnation. For the opposition coalition, it is a critical time to wrestle power from a party which they point out, has been unable to fulfil its promises of security and economic stability to the people and is undermining democratic institutions.
In the event of a divided Congress, the new President may face difficulties in passing reforms and enacting policy changes, especially with respect to reforms to energise the slow-growing economy. As an important country in the region, Mexico’s elections will set the tone of its future relations with both its northern and southern partners, with Mexico-U.S. relations being the most important.
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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] American Society/Council of Americas, “Mexico Elects: What's in Play in the Country's Massive 2024 Elections?, November 2023” https://www.as-coa.org/articles/mexico-elects-whats-play-countrys-massive-elections , Accessed on 08 February 2024.
[ii] Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, “Migration”, in Wilson Centre Mexico’s Next President: Challenges and Recommendations, 2023, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/documents/MexicoElectionBookletFinalWebProof.pdf, Accessed on 07 February 2024.