Elections are a process largely associated with democracy that allows people to elect officials to the highest offices of the country. The year 2024 is being called the year of elections with parliamentary or presidential elections in close to sixty countries representing a major portion of the world’s economy. These range from geographically small nations such as South Sudan to the larger states like Mexico and Russia and from parliamentary elections in India to the Presidential elections in Indonesia and the United States. Together these elections will witness close to 40 per cent of the world’s population exercising their right to vote. Electoral outreach, political campaigning and voter participation would dominate national political space. These elections will not only shape the national policies but also show if there is continuity or change in international political landscape. This paper highlights five elections that may shape the future international geostrategic landscape.
The United States
While the US Presidential elections will define the direction of domestic policies on a number of key issues such as abortion laws, gun control, medical care, etc, it is being watched for its geopolitical implications. Being a global power, the continuation or change in the US internal and external policies have an impact on different regions, as the United States is a major economic and security partner to many countries. The deep partisan divide, concerns about President Biden’s age, a Democratic Party trying to overcome divisions from within, the lack of condemnation by the Republican Party for the 06 January 2020 events at the Capitol Hill and former President Trump leading the party’s nomination have raised questions about American future policy direction.
The United States has for long proclaimed itself as the ‘beacon of democracy’ and has pushed and supported democracies around the world. One of the fundamental features of democratic elections is the peaceful transfer of power. However, with continued questioning of the 2020 elections result by the Republican Party candidates despite state courts confirming the results, have raised questions on the ‘quality’ of democracy in America today. Former President Trump, the leading candidate from the Republican Party, in a continuation of his first term policies has stated that he would expand oil drilling, impose restriction on immigrants and ensure the building of the border wall with Mexico.
With deep partisan divide there is limited space for cross-party discussion on any issues. The current political polarisation within the US Congress has prevented it from taking effective action on a number of domestic issues such as consensus on a spending bill, climate change, infrastructure projects, the opioid epidemic, etc. Its inability to address internal issues is also eroding its international power and leaves the country less able to handle future foreign-policy challenges. For example, the partisan difference on immigration has stalled bills on federal spending leading fear of government shutdown along with stopping the aid to Ukraine. The inability of the current the Democratic Party to overcome the bottlenecks in the US Congress has meant that obligations undertaken by America remain unfulfilled. Nonetheless, on some issues the parties have been able to arrive at a consensus. In December 2023, the US Congress approved the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 that includes the provision which prevents any President from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress. This legislation has since then been signed into law by President Biden. The provision within the Art, underscores America’s commitment to the alliance in an effort to allay the concern of alliance members. However, it also points to the effects of the increasing on polarisation on the US Congress. A divided Congress is unlikely to have a positive impact on American foreign policy. The more divided and gridlocked American politics become, the more America’s broader image erodes.
Russia
President Putin will be contesting for his fifth term as President of Russian Federation in March 2024. Two other candidates who have filed their nomination papers are Leonid Slutsky (Nationalist Liberal Democratic Party) and Vladislav Davankov (New People Party).
In an election that the West widely believes will be won by President Putin, there continues to be a need to understand their importance for both Russia and the international geopolitics. The Western observers continue to question the validity and fairness of these elections. However, irrespective of who wins the elections there is unlikely to be change in Moscow’s foreign policy outlook. Relations with the United States and Europe are likely to remain strained and Russia will continue to deepen its relations with countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. With historical connects with these regions, Russia is renewing its partnerships here. The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation[i] released in March 2023 outlines Russia’s ‘regional tracks of foreign policy’ towards these regions while stating that “The Russian Federation intends to build relations with other Anglo-Saxon states depending on the degree of their willingness to abandon their unfriendly course toward Russia and to respect its legitimate interests.”[ii]
The elections are important as it will also show if the candidate’s campaign agenda highlights the conflict in Ukraine or they focus on more pressing domestic issues such as increasing cost of living, reduced or unpaid wages, corruption and lack of improvement in public utility systems. The fact that Russia wants to hold timely elections in the midst of an ongoing conflict likely indicates that Moscow wants to demonstrate that Russia remains unaffected by the conflict. It also projects that the government is keen to go to the people to seek their support for their policies as a functional democracy. The elections will also be the first time that the residents of parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson would take part in the presidential vote. It is possible that Moscow will use its experience for the local elections held in these areas in 2023 to conduct the presidential vote, as Russia does not yet have full control over all of these territories. Nonetheless, their participation is important for the Kremlin as it points to the fact that these regions have integrated with the larger Russian federation.
The European Union (EU)
The European Parliament elections in 2024 will shape the EU's political direction over the next five years and, therefore, constitute a defining moment as the new parliament will approve the Commission President and Commissioners and lead to a re-shuffle of officers in Brussels. The elections are the largest transnational vote in the world involving all eligible voters from the bloc’s 27 members. The elections have suffered from feeble turnout and disinterest among voters who feel the EU is far removed from their daily lives.
The elections come in the backdrop of major EU economies facing economic slowdown and continued economic and social challenges due to the pandemic, providing aid, and managing migration from conflict zone in and around Europe. The EU is also looking at fulfilling its climate change–related commitments and ensuring green energy transition at the earliest. In geostrategic arena, the elections will be held with Europe continuing to grapple with the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Israel-Hamas confrontation and questions being raised regards the extent of U.S. engagement with Europe. This has meant that the EU is increasingly looking to enhance its own ability to address security challenges. Whether the incoming parliament can bring unanimity and intergovernmental consensus on common security and defence policy issues including its industrial policy will impact the EU’s ability to make security decisions in the future. The new parliament will also have a say in the Union’s budget and the new members would have to balance debt and deficit issues, which is a sensitive topic among the member states. In geopolitics, the elections come in the backdrop of difference among national policies on development of relations with China, Russia and the United States. With difference in the national policies on relations with each of these three nations, it remains to be seen how the new parliament bridges the gap between the national policies and transnational agenda. The EU is also looking at the elections in the US and the outcome will determine how the EU would like to shape transatlantic relations for the future. In terms of security and defence, the challenge for the new parliament would have to strengthen its commitment to European defence and find solutions to end the conflict in Ukraine.
With the EU, the new members of the European Parliament will lead the discussion on the difficult and challenging task of the enlargement of the Union and the economic costs that this would entail. The political landscape within the EU is also undergoing a change with the left and left centric political parties on the continent facing growing challenges from the far right and centre right parties. Projections of a surge in support for Euro-skeptic and far-right parties - buoyed by recent electoral successes in the Netherlands, Italy, Finland, and Sweden - are sowing doubts over the EU's future path. According to polls published by Euro News Agency, the far-right Identity and Democracy group may get a record high of 87 seats in the 720-member parliament, meaning it could compete with the Liberals to become the parliament’s third-biggest party.[iii] This could put the far-right at a prominent position and may likely have an impact on the EU’s future policies on migration, green energy transition and possible changes in aid to Ukraine.
The United Kingdom (The UK)
The UK is in the midst of a churn, starting with its departure from the EU, economic slowdown, the death of its longest reigning monarch and renegotiating its international relations and economic policies away from Brussels. Elections in the UK are scheduled for early 2025, though Prime Minister Sunak, is facing intense pressure from the opposition benches to call for early elections. In January 2024 he is reported to have commented to the media that, “…(his) working assumption is that elections will be held in the second half of this year (2024).” UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt also announced that the 2024 Budget will be held on 06 March fuelling further speculations that elections are likely to be called in 2024. (The date is about ten day to two weeks earlier than previously held budget announcements)
The Conservative Party, in power since 2010, faces a resurgent Labour Party under the leadership of Keir Starmer, who has shifted the party towards a more pragmatic centrist ideology away from the socialist views of his predecessor. This change may pose a threat to the Conservatives who have been facing low support in current polls, leadership infighting, anti-incumbency and inability to address pressing issues of economic growth and social welfare. For many of the younger voters, who predominantly supported remaining in the EU, there is a feeling of disconnect from a Conservative government that championed the break from Europe and have failed to maximise any of the so-called Brexit opportunities.
For the voters, the main concerns are economic growth, the rising costs of living, increasing energy prices and deterioration in the quality of social services provided. Keeping this in mind, at the start of 2023, Prime Minister Sunak has mentioned five points that his government would address- (i) reduce inflation, (ii) growth in the economy, (iii) reduced debt, (iv) half the National Health Services waiting time and (v) stop the boats (in an effort to reduce illegal migration). The government’s inability to address any of these issues in a meaningful manner has been the focus of criticism of the Conservatives. Illegal migration is increasingly emerging as a sensitive issue among voters. In 2022, the UK signed an agreement to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda. The measure, while being upheld by the UK courts, has been condemned by many observers, including the United Nations, who said it could amount to a human rights violation. The agreement continues to be debated in the Parliament, and the opposition has argued that the bill does not address the issue of migrants illegally crossing the English Channel in small boats. London works in close cooperation with Paris on addressing such crossing, and any change in government is unlikely to change this relationship.
Relations with the EU will remain a priority for the incoming government ahead of a review of the existing trade and cooperation agreement in 2026. The Conservatives are aware that a focus on forging closer ties with the EU would open doors for British businesses, maximising market access particularly in high-growth sectors, such as financial services, life sciences and green industries, and provide potential economic benefits. Prime Minister Sunak has taken a moderate approach to Brussels and through the Windsor Framework (2023)[iv] both parties have found joint solution on how to implement the trade protocol between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The Labour Party has indicated that it seeks to institutionalise its cooperation through structured dialogues at the political and official levels. It seeks a new UK-EU Security Pact and better cooperation on economic issues including coordination on sanctions policy towards Russia and exchange of intelligence. Both parties have similar outlook on support to Ukraine and relations with the US.
Relations with China remain complex, which are witnessing a low after the close cooperation in the early years of the last decade. Several issues, including the question of democracy in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Chinese espionage activity in the UK, have caused Conservative parliamentarians to take a critical view on China. The Conservatives have followed a three strand ‘Protect, Align and Engage’ framework on its engagements with China. As outlined in its Integrated Review Refresh 2023 which states that, “(The UK) will increase national security protections in those areas where Chinese Communist Party actions pose a threat to its people, prosperity and security. Second, the UK will deepen its cooperation and increase alignment with both its core allies and a wider group of partners. Third, the UK will engage directly with China bilaterally and in international fora so that it leaves room for open, constructive and predictable relations.”[v] On the other hand, current Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy outlined the Labour government’s strategy is “… based on three Cs: compete, challenge and cooperate”,[vi] but how they will build the policy has not been elaborated yet. Nonetheless, the two parties have a similar approach towards China, which is to continue to engage but reduce dependency. On the larger Indo-Pacific region while the Conservatives have pointed to an Indo-Pacific tilt with deeper ties with the countries of the region, the Labour Party has not yet outlined a strategy of engagement. The Shadow Foreign Minister Lammy has pointed out that Labour will “properly recognise the region’s crucial importance….” It will maintain its presence in the region through partnerships such as the AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-United States). However, he also stated, “This relationship cannot come at the cost of our security commitments in Europe or ….our own neighbourhood.”[vii] Along with the NATO and EU focused security outlook, it would seem that if a Labour government is to come to power, the focus would be on relations with Europe.
India
As the fifth largest economy, the largest democracy and a rising power, the world also wants India to play a leading role in international geopolitics. The identity of India as a trusted, reliable and stable political and economic partner has meant that the Indian elections are being watched in major capitals. India’s influence in global politics has steadily been growing in recent years and the Government of India is keen to promote India’s image as a responsible global actor.
India’s economy is gaining momentum, with the government implementing policies to attract foreign investors, enacting reforms of goods and services tax, developing strategies to harness its demographic dividend and ensuring the country becomes a manufacturing hub with more jobs for its skilled workers. India is investing in bridging its infrastructure gaps to attract investors. Its financial markets remain open and stable, it has a huge consumer market, and it is pushing the green energy transition providing opportunities of technology and innovation collaborations and production. According to the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024,[viii] South Asia as a region is projected to see GDP growth by 5.2 per cent in 2024, driven by a robust expansion in India, which remains the fastest growing large economy in the world. According to the report, India is projected to grow by 6.2 per cent in 2024, supported by domestic demand and growth in manufacturing and services.[ix] This upward economic trajectory will also be an important driver of global growth. With the Indo-Pacific a key factor in global economic growth, not just in the near future but for the long term, India along with Indonesia and Vietnam will be the driving force of the region and its contribution to global economy. With this economic power India would take more responsibilities towards building a more inclusive international financial order.
Economic considerations along with national security concerns have affected India’s views on how it has responded to the Ukraine conflict, conducted the G20 Summit and is developing relations with key partners such as Japan, countries of the Gulf region, the US, the UK and the EU. The prospect of adopting a geo-economic foreign policy has become more relevant and necessary because of several external shocks such as the pandemic, supply chain constraints, the Ukraine conflict, increasing tensions in the Middle East and the rising incidents of attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Foreign policy, in effect, becomes a tool through which the Indian government absorbs critical economic pressures, clinches and advances emergent opportunities, and defends core interests through various economic instruments such as trade, technology and financing.[x] As India credibly manages and sustains its economic policy, economic relations have become an important aspect of its foreign policy and have helped India expand its global footprint.
In the past decade, as India has expanded its global footprint, it has made clear that it envisages a larger role for itself in the international arena. It has built its credentials as a leading voice of the Global South and has tried to mainstream the concerns of the Global South countries by engaging with other 125 developing nations during its G20 presidency in the past year. This collaboration with its partners will continue, as India looks for inclusive and sustainable growth pathways that interlink its national economic growth through global partnerships, which bring more manufacturing and technology cooperation to the country.
India has called for reforms to the West-dominated global architecture and wants wider representation in global economic and political forums. It is part of a number of multilateral, pluri-lateral and mini-lateral partnerships that allow it to cooperate with like-minded partners on issues of common interest. This is a continuation of its policy of strategic autonomy. This has meant that the international community is increasingly looking towards India to play a constructive role in mediating peace in conflicts.
The pandemic has contributed to India’s growing influence. The supply chain disruptions and dependence on China in key economic areas have pushed nations to build alternatives. India is highlighting its capacities and capabilities to take advantage of this shift. Its large English-speaking, educated and well-trained human capital have attracted foreign investors to invest in its economy. Its political and economic stability are added advantages. Following the 2024 elections, India’s focus on domestic and regional stability is likely to intensify. Amidst the disruption of global supply chains and the US-China mutual decoupling, India is set to become a prime destination for redirected global capital, new technological investments, and enhanced global and regional partnerships.[xi] The predictability and stability of India’s political leadership, along with increased engagement with the West and the East, and its increased cooperation within the framework of the G20, UN, BRICS, Quad, etc have further solidified its position as a stable partner.
The upcoming elections will be the interplay of India’s global aspirations and national developmental plans. As India’s status in the world has grown, foreign policy has become an increasingly prominent electoral issue, which includes highlighting India’s elevated state in international politics and the contributions that India has made in critical issues facing the world. Indians have become increasingly conscious of the impact of globalisation, technology and interdependence on inter-state relations and the role that these factors play in their day-to-day lives. They also realise the inter-linkage between their goal of security and prosperity at home and global developments. As a diverse nation, the home of one of the world’s largest populations of youth and the growth engine of the world, India is firm in its belief that it has a lot to contribute to the shaping of the future of the world.
Conclusion
Called the biggest election year, globally more voters than ever in history will cast their ballots in 2024 in national elections that will prove to be consequential for the near term. The outcomes of these votes could change the makeup of political institutions and impact existing geopolitical faultiness. Some elections are being held with the electorate deeply divided over issues and ideologies, some will see the coming of new leadership while others may see continuity in government, some will be held in large established old democracies, while others will be a test for new and small democracies. These elections will also see the use of new technologies and social media to reach out to the electorate and raise fears of fake news and misinformation and the risk of manipulation.
The new multi-polar world will be characterised by a growing demand for inclusiveness especially by the Global South. They provide credible alternatives to the West- economically, technologically, militarily and in a common desire to work with each other to address mutual concerns. This does not mean the rise of China as the global model or a consensus among the nations on reforms but rather countries seeking mutually beneficial cooperation on an issue by issue basis. This reality is reflected in the reactions to the conflict in Ukraine with most nations of the Global South denouncing the violence but unwilling to apply sanctions on Russia. They do not want to be consigned to one side or the other, but to retain the ability to pursue international relations with all as best serves their interests. As Europe and America increasingly seek support for their positions in organisations such as the UN would need them to understand their perceptions of the current global order.
Within the international order, the United States continues to hold a position of power. With the country grappling with growing competition from China and a polarised national political atmosphere that is effecting its foreign policy decisions, there is a realisation that the US needs to change its approach to ensure that global multilateral institutions continue to support its boarder foreign policy goals. President Donald Trump’s first term in office proved to be turbulent for American foreign policy and as he looks to secure the nomination for a second presidential bid, his views on international trade, security and economics would impact US standing in global institutions and the support it gets from other partners in these forums. In the event of President Biden retaining his position for a second term, he would have to work with nations to address disruptions due to technology, transition to green economies while would require him to work with international partners. The irrespective of the party that comes to the White House, the new President would have to balance his international agenda alongside a divided US Congress.
Elections in Russia, point to continuity between the domestic and foreign policy agenda. It will remain part of the global order. It is today deepening its relations with countries from South America to Africa to Asia and supports the need for reforms to multilateral organisations such as the UN. It has welcomed the expansion of representation in the BRICS, SCO and G20. As it faces increasing isolation from the West it is looking at Global South Nations for support it may make more efforts to reform the global forums.
The European Parliament elections in 2024 will be a pivotal moment for the European Union. The issues at stake, including economic recovery, competitiveness, climate change, migration, digital transformation, and institutional reforms. The elections remain significant for the way they will shape the EU’s institutions and outlook towards integration and the conflicts on its border and neighbourhood. The appointment of a new Commission after the elections will therefore have a impact on the EU’s external relations. In parallel with the election of the Commission President, member states will also appoint a new president of the European Council and a new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. While there is unlikely to be any fundamental policy disruptions, they come at a time when support for the Ukraine conflict is wavering and European economies face slow recovery due to geopolitical tensions and high cost of living.
For many in the UK, the next elections would herald a break from Brexit controversy and start afresh with the EU which would help reaffirm foreign policy, security and defence cooperation and stabilise the trade relations between the island nation and the continent. The elections, scheduled to be held at the same time as its transatlantic partner, would help boost the relations which have seen the two nations come together in the defence and security arena but the trade agreement continues to face opposition in the US Congress. The UK is also looking at an Indo-Pacific engagement. In 2023 it agreed to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is to be ratified this year. Along with economic cooperation, the region is also gaining importance in its security policy. As it engages more with the nations of the region, it will look work with partners to address shared regional security concerns.
India’s elections are unlikely to see a change in its foreign policy approach. It will continue to engage with the world and seek partnerships. Nonetheless, the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will send strategic signals to the neighbourhood and the world about the direction in which India is headed. The aggressive rise of China remains a concern and India will continue to bolster its security on the border but remain open to dialogue for resolution of the border issue. The priority for India will remain peace and stability in its immediate neighbourhood. India will use its position as a leader of the Global South to bring focus to issues from the developing world. It will play a role in establishing norms for the use of emerging technologies while continue to explore collaborations in space and defence technologies. India has strengthened relations with partners across continents, from the US to France, from Japan to South Africa. As a nation that will contribute significantly to the global economy, India will push for a more inclusive international order in which it will play a prominent role.
The elections in 2024 are national and will revolve around domestic issues; nonetheless, the major issues are all global in nature which includes addressing climate change vulnerabilities, transition to green economy, establishing global norms use of emerging technologies such as AI, etc. The world today is deeply interconnected, including in facing crisis and risks. As the countries of the Global South become more influential players, they will continue to push for systemic changes and reforms and will shape how international organisations address global challenges in the future. The geopolitical and economic impact of so many ballot box battles, occurring more or less at once, will influence the international system.
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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal.
Endnotes
[i] The document is available at https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/
[ii] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, “The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation,” 31 March 2023, https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/, Accessed on 11 January 2024.
[iii] Mared Gywn Jones, “Five elections set to shape Europe in 2024, the biggest ballot year in history,” Euro News, 27 December 2023, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/12/27/five-elections-set-to-shape-europe-in-2024-the-biggest-ballot-year-in-history, Accessed on 16 January 2024.
[iv] The Framework is available at https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement-new/windsor-framework-new_en
[v] HM Government, “Integrated Review Refresh 2023: Responding to a more Contested and Volatile World,” March 2023, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/641d72f45155a2000c6ad5d5/11857435_NS_IR_Refresh_2023_Supply_AllPages_Revision_7_WEB_PDF.pdf, Accessed on 17 January 2024.
[vi] David Lammy, “Britain Reconnected a Foreign Policy for Security and Prosperity at Home, “Fabian Ideas 661, 28 March 2023, https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/David-Lammy-Britain-Reconnected-240323.pdf, Accessed on 17 January 2024.
[vii] Ibid.
[viii] Report is available at https://desapublications.un.org/?_gl=1*17cnrct*_ga*NzQ0OTQxNDEwLjE3MDU5MTYzOTc.*_ga_TK9BQL5X7Z*MTcwNTkxNjM5Ny4xLjEuMTcwNTkxNjU1My4wLjAuMA..
[ix] United Nations, “Overview – World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024,” https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2024/01/overview-world-economic-situation-and-prospects-2024/#:~:text=The%20report%20forecasts%20a%20deceleration,high%20debt%20and%20investment%20shortfalls, Accessed on 22 January 2024.
[x] Karthik Nachiappan, “India’s Geo-Economic Foreign Policy,” https://www.theindiaforum.in/international-affairs/indias-geo-economic-foreign-policy#:~:text=Foreign%20policy%2C%20in%20effect%2C%20becomes,as%20trade%2C%20technology%20and%20financing, Accessed on 22 January 2024.
[xi] Velina Tchakarova, “Shifting sands: Navigating the new geopolitical landscape in 2024,” https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/shifting-sands-navigating-the-new-geopolitical-landscape-in-2024, Accessed on 19 January 2024.