The ruling People’s National Congress (PNC), led by the present President of the Maldives, Dr Mohammed Muizzu, won the parliamentary elections held on 21 April 2024 with a clear majority, winning 66 seats out of 93 seats. Together with the alliance partners, the Maldives National Party (MNP), the Maldives Development Alliance (MDA), the Jumhoori Party (JP) and four independent candidates supported by the party, the PNC secured 74 seats out of 93 seats. This significant victory is set to alter the political landscape of Maldives.
The election result is important on various grounds. First, the result showed the support the PNC garnered among the electorate within six months of the Presidential elections that were held in September 2023, despite the split from its alliance partner, the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and its leader, Abdulla Yameen, a former Maldives President, who was in power from 2013–2018. Abdulla Yameen could not contest the Presidential election held in September 2023 due to his prison sentence. At the last minute, the PPM decided to support the less known PNC leader, Dr. Muizzu, as the coalition candidate. After the coalition’s victory in the presidential election, Yameen was shifted to house arrest. Soon, differences cropped up between the leadership of the PNC and the PPM, which forced Yameen to form a new party, the People’s National Front (PNF). Abdulla Yameen was acquitted by the Maldives High Court days before the parliamentary elections, but his release had no impact on the electoral prospects of the PNF. The PNF candidates contested as independent candidates, as the new party could not register before the elections, but failed to win a single seat. With this election, the PNC came out of the shadow of the PPM.
Second, the absolute support extended by voters to the PNC, by ensuring the victory of the party candidates in 66 constituencies, meant that the Opposition parties will now have less room for manoeuvring in domestic politics. The lack of electoral understanding among the Opposition parties before the elections, despite taking a stand against some of the domestic and foreign policy issues of the government seems to have worked in favour of the PNC. For instance, the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) led by former President of Maldives, Mohammed Solih and the Democrats founded by former President Mohammed Nasheed issued a joint statement in January 2024, questioning the foreign policy direction of the government, particularly its relations with India, as “detrimental to the country’s long-term development.”[1]Both parties also tried to impeach the President in January 2024, given their combined strength in the present 19th Parliament i.e.56 parliamentarians out of 87 members, by amending the Constitution. The Supreme Court of Maldives suspended the move by the Opposition to impeach the President before the parliamentary elections.
However, the unity shown by the MDP and the Democrats on foreign policy issue did not transform into an electoral alliance to take on the ruling PNC. The MDP led by Mohammed Solih won only 12 seats, and the Democrats, founded by Mohammed Nasheed failed to get a single seat. The election verdict is a setback to both the leaders. Other smaller parties, such as the Adhaalath Party and the Jumhoori Party— which played a key role in formation of previous governments in Maldives since 2008, could not garner support from voters this time. The AP did not win a seat, but the JP managed to win one seat. Unlike the previous elections, this time around 130 independent candidates contested the election and 11 of them secured wins. Even the corruption charges against the President, which surfaced in the media just before the election, could not dent the electoral prospects of the ruling party, as the Opposition parties expected.
Third, the result has set the stage for implementing the PNC government’s foreign and domestic policy agenda without any parliamentary hindrance. As far as the foreign policy of the government is concerned, the new government, led by President Muizzu, will try to diversify its economic and security cooperation with other countries while maintaining a working relationship with India. This is evident from the way it has conducted its relations with India in the last few months. The PNC-PPM alliance used the “India out” campaign before the presidential elections to mobilise voters in favour of the coalition. The campaign, which gained traction among the electorate due to the anti-incumbency factor, ensured Dr Muizzu’s victory. Soon after the election results, the new political dispensation asked India to withdraw 88 troops stationed in the island to operate two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft gifted by India extensively used for medical emergency and evacuation purposes. The PNC continued with its stand after the elections. The first batch of Indian military personnel left in March, and the second batch left the island nation in April 2024.
On the other hand, the current bottlenecks in bilateral relations did not come in the way of India’s support for Maldives. India allowed the export of essential commodities to Maldives for the year 2024-25, a gesture appreciated by the island leadership, including the President and the Foreign Minister of Maldives, Moosa Zameer.[2]In March 2024, Dr Muizzu described India as a “closest ally,” and requested to consider measures for debt relief. The island nation owes approximately $400.9 million to India by the end of 2023[3]. The response by the leadership in Male, also indicate that India’s economic and development cooperation and disaster response are important aspects in bilateral relations, which are hard to ignore, despite the present hiccups in relations.
However, the clear majority in parliament provides ample opportunity for the new government in Malé to steer foreign policy away from the region. This is evident from Dr Muizzu’s visit to Turkey, the UAE and China after winning the presidential elections and the agreements signed to further defence and investment cooperation, etc. Improving the capacity of Maldives Defence Forces was an election pledge of the PNC.[4]In this regard, Maldives signed a defence agreement with China in March 2024 to obtain non-lethal weapons and training of Maldivian Defence Forces.[5]. For the first time, Maldives also purchased military drones from Turkey, to patrol its vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of nine lakh square kilometres. These developments may challenge the Indian Ocean geopolitics and the present swing in foreign policy is expected to continue for the time being.
At the domestic level, the PNC’s detailed manifesto has offered a number of initiatives for youth and women in terms of creating education and training opportunities, employment opportunities and housing. The ruling party also promised, large-scale infrastructure projects to boost tourism, improving connectivity by constructing bridges, pathways, and airports, establishing digital economy, and initiating legal and judicial reforms[6]. After assuming office, the President inaugurated the most expensive 1,153 hectares of land reclamation project “Ras Malé” at Fushi Dhiggaru Lagoon.[7]The project is expected to address the housing needs of a growing population in the future.
Nonetheless, a crucial challenge for the new government is its increasing domestic debt and consolidation of foreign reserves. The IMF has already flagged the debt issue at the beginning of this year and said, “Maldives remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress”[8].According to Fitch Ratings, the country has $232 million in external debt-servicing obligations and $298 million in publicly guaranteed obligations due in 2024.[9]To repay the debt, Maldives will have to ensure the steady flow of tourists and investments in the island nation. Tourism is the main source of revenue for the government, contributing to nearly 30 percent of the GDP and generating nearly 60 percent of foreign exchange earnings.[10]
In this context, political stability and good neighbourly relations are crucial for ensuring steady economy in the future. During the PPM government led by Yameen, political unrest and the imposition of emergency had hit the tourism sector and the government revenue. In recent months, the social media campaign #boycottmaldives in India, following the comments by an ex-Maldivian Minister on the Indian PM’s visit to Lakshadweep, led to decrease in number of Indian tourists to Maldives. India was among the top five tourist market of Maldives until last year and now occupies a sixth position. Few reports have forecasted loss of nearly $ 2 billion for the industry, if tourist inflow from India to Maldives continues to be slow in the future[11]. To undo the damage, the Maldives Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators (MATATO) have already reached out to India to conduct road shows in various cities to promote Maldives tourism. Other domestic challenges include addressing the issue of extremism, employment generation and ensuring the transparency and independence of state institutions, such as the judiciary, and taking action on climate-related change. Given the majority in parliament, how the new government in Malé will navigate foreign policy and domestic challenges remains to be seen.
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*Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal
End Notes
[1] The Maldives Democratic Party, Press Release, “Joint Press Statement by the Maldivian Democratic Party and The Democrats”,24 January, 2024, https://mdp.org.mv/archives/82206. Accessed April 12, 2024.
[2]“Maldives thanks India for allowing export of essential commodities,” Business Standard, 9 April 2024, https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/maldives-thanks-india-for-allowing-export-of-essential-commodities-124040600119_1.html. Accessed April 15, 2024.
[3]“Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu seeks debt relief from India after insisting on withdrawal of military personnel”, 22 March 2024, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/maldives-president-mohamed-muizzu-seeks-debt-relief-from-india-after-insisting-on-withdrawal-of-military-personnel/articleshow/108713104.cms?from=mdr. Accessed April 15, 2024.
[4] The President’s Office, Republic of Maldives, “Unofficial Translation of the Presidential Address, 2024,” 5 February 2024, https://presidency.gov.mv/Press/Article/29735. Accessed April 2, 2024.
[5] The Economic Times, “Maldives-China defence agreement to obtain non-lethal weapons and training, says President Muizzu,” 6 March 2024, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/maldives-china-defence-agreement-to-obtain-non-lethal-weapons-and-training-says-president- uizzu/articleshow/108271962.cms?from=mdr. Accessed April 2, 2024.
[6] The PNC Website, https://pnc.mv/en#vision. Accessed April 20, 2024.
[7] The Republic of Maldives, Presidents’ Office, “The President inaugurates the 'Ras Malé' reclamation project, the most extensive land reclamation project in the nation”, 18 December 2023, https://www.presidencymaldives.gov.mv/Press/Article/29416. Accessed April 5, 2024.
[8] International Monitory Fund, “IMF Staff Completes 2024 Article IV Mission to the Maldives,” 6 February 2024, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/02/06/pr2440-maldives-imf-staff-completes-2024-article-iv-mission. Accessed April 7, 2024.
[9] Fitch Ratings, “Fitch Affirms Maldives at 'B-'; Outlook Negative”, 9 October 2023, https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-maldives-at-b-outlook-negative-09-10-2023.
[10] The US Department of State, “2023 Investment Climate Statements: Maldives,” https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-investment-climate-statements/maldives/. Accessed April 11, 2024.
[11] The Economic Times, “Indian tourists shun the Maldives; industry feels the pinch: Reports”, 14 March 2024, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/travel/indian-tourists-shun-the-maldives-industry-feels-the-pinch. Accessed April 7, 2024.