Indian Council of World Affairs

On 20^th May 2024, Lai Ching-te (William Lai) will take over as the next President of Taiwan. He is the Presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), that won the general elections for the third consecutive time this year. Lai Ching-te is considered a pro-independence leader and has been vocal about Taiwan’s independence. It has been widely observed that since the DPP came to power in 2016, China has increased its aggressive posture towards Taiwan. This has made the security situation around the Taiwan Strait more volatile, and the tensions in the Taiwan Strait have increased manifold. The overall security situation in the region is affected by the dynamics in Cross-Strait relations and US-China relations in a significant way. The paper analyses the unfolding events that have led to the volatility of the situation around the Strait. 

Internal Dynamics of Taiwan 

As a part of the general election, on 13 January 2024, Taiwan held elections for President and 113 seats in the legislature (the Legislative Yuan). The general election witnessed the participation of the three main political parties; the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the Kuomintang (KMT), and Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP). In the election, the DPP won 40 per cent of the votes, the KMT got 33.5 per cent, and the TPP secured 26.5 per cent. Neither the DPP nor the KMT won an absolute majority.^[i]

There are a total of 113 seats in the Chamber; a party must have at least 57 seats to command an absolute majority. The DPP’s presidential candidate won, but the party lost its majority in the legislature. It may be noted that in 2016 and 2020, Tsai Ing-wen won with a majority of the votes, and the DPP also got a majority in the legislature as well.[ii] This time, the DPP lost the majority and Taiwan had a hung parliament. The last time that no single party got an absolute majority in Taiwan was in 2004. [iii]

The 2024 elections saw yet another new development. Ko Wen-je, the leader of the TPP won 26.5 per cent of the votes. The TPP is a relatively new party, founded in 2019, and has seen a rapid rise. Ko said, “This is a new political landscape” He further added, “This voice will be a key power directing the country.” Since both the leading parties are not in the majority, TPP is likely to play the role of king-maker. [iv] In all possibilities, the DPP will form the government for the third time. In Taiwan, a presidential term spans four years, and a President can serve up to two terms.^[v] The new President takes office on May 20^th of that year. ^[vi]

Cross-Strait Relations 

China has been following the developments in Taiwan with much scrutiny. China deployed spy balloons and satellites and violated air and naval spaces to showcase its capabilities to the Taiwanese people. Several Chinese aircraft and balloons have been detected in the Taiwanese airspace. The Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan reported 101 instances of Chinese military aircraft and 79 naval vessel sightings in April 2024.[vii] On 28 April 2024, 22 Chinese aircraft and four naval vessels were detected around Taiwan in 24 hours. Twelve aircraft crossed the median line and entered the Northern Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) of Taiwan.[viii] The increase in the Chinese incursion demonstrates a pattern of  “grey zone” (gray zone) actions.[ix]  Grey zone conflicts are essentially coercive but are below the threshold of a full-fledged conflict.[x] China has been using grey-zone tactics frequently towards Taiwan. 

China took various measures to downplay the importance of the election in Taiwan, including blocking and censoring, terms and hashtags related to the Taiwan elections on its social media. Terms like “frozen garlic” were used to refer to Taiwan’s elections on Chinese social media. Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), said that “the results showed the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent mainstream public opinion on the island”.[xi]

In the subsequent month, tensions also increased near Kinmen Island, which is under Taiwanese jurisdiction.[xii] In February, a boat with no clear registration document crossed into Kinmen to catch fish. Four of the crew members fell into the water, and two of them drowned. Both sides accused each other, and China demanded that Taiwanese officers undergo questioning on the mainland.[xiii]

Yet another development that affected the Cross-Strait Relations is the delegation led by Ma Ying-Jeou. Ma Ying-Jeou, former Chairman of the KMT Party, led a delegation of 20 young students to China from 1 to 11 April 2024.[xiv] Besides visiting many places in China, he also met Xi Jinping. This was his second meeting with Xi Jinping. The first meeting took place on 7 November 2015, in Singapore. In March 2023, Ma became the first former Taiwanese President to visit China but did not meet Xi Jinping. During their present meeting, Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-Jeou emphasised achieving national unification in their conversations. [xv] Xi Jinping said: There is “no problem that cannot be talked through”. He emphasised the fact that “Foreign interference” cannot stop the historic trend of a “family reunion” and stressed “peaceful reunification”.[xvi] He described his trip as a mission of “peace and friendship” and to open up the possibility of continuing exchanges with China and as a channel of communication with the CCP. [xvii] The timing of his delegation is conspicuous. It may be noted that at the time of his trip, tensions were still high between China and Taiwan vis-à-vis the Kinmen issue. His trip was just a month before the new President would take over the presidential office. Through this meeting, China wants to showcase that it can still influence Taiwanese politics and his visit will have a bearing on Cross-Strait relations. 

Soon after the Taiwan elections, Beijing influenced Nauru to switch its diplomatic alliance to China, thereby limiting Taiwan’s bilateral relations to only 12 UN member states. Reacting to the development, the Foreign Ministry of Taiwan stated, “China has long made efforts to approach prominent political figures in Nauru, offering economic assistance as an incentive to persuade Nauru to switch diplomatic recognition”.[xviii]

US-China Relations 

The US-China contestation has also affected Cross-Strait relations. The Taiwan Relations Act, signed in 1979, is the cornerstone of US-Taiwan relations. This year marks 45 years since the US-Taiwan Relations Act became law. Joe Biden has time and again said that the US should protect Taiwan’s sovereignty. The Biden administration has helped Taiwan in all possible ways, with special emphasis given to the trade and defence sectors. The US also has military engagement with Taiwan. There are various other exchanges, such as the Monterey Talks, Defence Review Talks, and General Officers Steering Group.[xix] Reportedly, 41 US military personnel were allocated for duty in Taiwan.[xx]

Taiwan was the 8th-largest US trading partner in 2023. Taiwan is important in US global semiconductor and technology supply chains and is the global centre for the production of advanced chips. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will build its most advanced chips in Arizona by 2028. TSMC will receive funding under the CHIPS Act 2022. [xxi]

The US Congress passed a bill related to the US-Taiwan trade in June 2023. The bill also imposes requirements on the negotiations of certain further trade agreements between the US and Taiwan.[xxii] The US Congress has furthermore passed the Non-Discrimination Act of 2023 which calls for actions to support Taiwan’s participation in the IMF. [xxiii]

In April 2024, the House approved a US$ 95 billion foreign aid package. The first three bills include US$ 60.8 billion to help Ukraine in its war with Russia; US$ 26.4 billion to support Israel, and US$ 8.1 billion to counter Chinese threats to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region. [xxiv] Tsai Ing-wen thanked the US for its support and reiterated that Taiwan will continue to work with the US to strengthen the pan-democratic alliance” and uphold global prosperity and stability.[xxv] China has reacted to the aid and said that the inclusion of Taiwan-related content in the bill violates the “One-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiques”.[xxvi]

As China has stepped up its military activities along the Taiwan Strait, the US-Taiwan cooperation has grown manifold. Both under the Trump and Biden administrations, Taiwan had developed and maintained stable defence relations with the US. The 117th and 118th Congresses have taken steps to increase and expedite arms transfers to Taiwan, including through Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). The Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act (TERA) for the first time authorised the provision of FMF (essentially grants or loans a foreign government may use to purchase US arms) for Taiwan up to US$ 2 billion a year in grant assistance and up to US$ 2 billion a year in direct loans and loan guarantees through FY2027. TERA also amended the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 to make the Presidential Drawdown Authority available to Taiwan, authorising the provision to Taiwan of up to US$ 1 billion annually in defence articles, services, and education and from the US Department of Defense (DOD) stocks. Through these arms transfers and assistance, the US is trying to increase the defence capability of Taiwan. Earlier, in July 2023, the Biden Administration notified Congress of its intent to exercise this authority to transfer US$ 345 million of defence equipment to Taiwan. [xxvii] On August 23, 2023, the US agreed to sell a system with which its F-16 fighters can search and track enemy aircraft through infrared technology. The infrared search and track (IRST) system will help Taiwan with grey-zone incursions. The Taiwanese Deputy Defence Minister said, “It will help to target the J-20 stealth fighter over the Taiwan Strait in the future.” [xxviii]

On 8-9 January 2024, a two-day US-China defence dialogue known as Defence Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT) was held after a long gap. The last meeting was held in 2021. One of the possible reasons for the talks could be the security situation around the Taiwan Strait. China asked the US to abide by the one-China principle and stop arming Taiwan and had positioned the Taiwan election as a choice between war and peace. [xxix]

Conclusion 

Ever since the DPP came to power, China has increased its aggression towards Taiwan. The strategic location of Taiwan is very important for China as it falls into the first island chain group, which in turn forms the first line of defence for China. Repeatedly, Xi Jinping has emphasised the reunification of Taiwan with China. China is not missing a chance to unify Taiwan with the mainland and has also not ruled out the possibility of using armed forces to achieve it. On the contrary, according to a study conducted by the Election Study Center of National Chengchi University in Taipei, 90 per cent of Taiwan favours the current ambiguous status quo position of Taiwan. 

The coming back of the DPP and Lai as the next President of Taiwan has increased the volatility of the region. China has already called Lai a “troublemaker” and “obstinate separatist”. Taiwanese officials expect China to intensify its military intimidation. Amid the US-China trade friction, the US is increasing its assistance to Taiwan, and on the other side, China is increasing its aggressive posture along the Taiwan Strait. There are increasing concerns about the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. China’s military coercion and grey-zone tactics are a threat to regional security. Tensions are inevitable in the Taiwan Strait in the coming times.

*****

*Dr. Teshu Singh, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Election 2024/Election result shows TPP has ushered in three-party politics in Taiwan: Ko, Focus Taiwan, 13 January 2024, https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202401130017 (Accessed on 24 March 2024).

[ii] John Dotson and Ben Levine, The Outcomes of Taiwan’s 2024 Legislative Elections, Global Taiwan Institute, 24 January 2024, https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/01/the-outcomes-of-taiwans-2024-legislative-elections/ (Accessed on 24 March 2024)

[iii] ELECTION 2024/No party gets legislative majority; small TPP to play key role, Focus Taiwan  13 January 2024, https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202401130019  (Accessed on 24 March 2024).

[iv] Kathrin Hille, Taiwan’s third party becomes kingmaker after voters defy China in election, Financial Times, 15 January 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/8d197c43-ce38-4f29-89e0-7137f08295ee (Accessed on 24 March 2024).

[v]  Richard C. Bush, Ryan Hass, Patricia M. Kim, Adam P. Liff, Syaru Shirley Lin, Melanie W. Sisson, and Susan A. Thornton, The impact of Taiwan’s election in 2024 and beyond, Brookings, 17 January 2024, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-impact-of-taiwans-election-in-2024-and-beyond/ (Accessed on 24 March 2024).

[vi]  Taiwan election: How it works, Reuters, 13 January 2024,  https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/factbox-how-does-taiwan-election-work-2024-01-11/ (Accessed on 25 March 2024).

[vii] ANI, Taiwan detects 16 Chinese military aircraft, eight naval vessels around the nation, The Times of India, 13 April 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/taiwan-detects-16-chinese-military-aircraft-eight-naval-vessels-around-nation/articleshow/10927086 1. cms (Accessed on 25  April 2024).

[viii] Jason Pan, PLA incursions continue despite KMT trip: DPP, Taipei Times, 29 April 2024, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/04/29/2003817096 (Accessed on 29 April 2024).

[ix] Thirty PRC aircraft detected: ministry, Taipei Times, 4 April 2024, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2024/04/04/2003815950 (Accessed on 20 April 2024).

[x] Jacob Stokes, Resisting China’s Gray Zone Military Pressure on Taiwan, CNAS, 7 December 2023, https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/resisting-chinas-gray-zone-military-pressure-on-taiwan (Accessed 22 March 2024).

[xi] Cindy Carter, Netizen Voices: “So a general election doesn’t represent mainstream public opinion?”, China Digital Times, 16 January 2024, https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2024/01/netizen-voices-so-a-general-election-doesnt-represent-mainstream-public-opinion/ (Accessed on 21 March 2024).

[xii]  Editorial: Reporting on Kinmen tensions, Taipei Times, 26 March 2024, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2024/03/26/2003815467 (Accessed on 28 March 2024).

[xiii]  Helen Davidson and Chi Hui Lin, In the busy waters between China and Taiwan, the de facto border is being tested, the Guardian, 19 March 2024

 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/19/in-the-busy-waters-between-china-and-taiwan-the-de-facto-border-is-being-tested (Accessed on 28 March 2024).

[xiv] Jiang Chenglong, Official urges more efforts to boost cross-Strait exchanges, China Daily 1 April 2024,   https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202404/01/WS660ad9e4a31082fc043bfd81.html (Accessed on 25 April 2024).

[xv]  Huaxia, Xinhua Commentary: Xi's meeting with Ma injects positive energy to relations across Taiwan Strait, Xinhua, 4 April 2024,  https://english.news.cn/20240411/48e2c7a86a314bebafc6580e66e54ece/c.html (Accessed on 15 April 2024).

[xvi]  Amber Wang, Vanessa Cai and Xinlu Liang, No problem that can’t be talked through, President Xi Jinping tells Taiwan’s Ma Ying-Jeou in historic Beijing talks, South China Morning Post, 10 April 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3258424/president-xi-jinping-meets-taiwans-ma-ying-jeou-historic-first-9-years-after-landmark singapore?utm_medium=email&utm_source=cm&utm_campaign=enlz-today_international&utm_content=20240410&tpcc=enlz-today_international&UUID=11ce45a9-6e77-4f2f-87fa-00207e29660a&next_article_id=3258439&article_id_list=3258424,3258439,3258464,3258513,3258471,3258479,3258497,3258493&tc=4 (Accessed on 15 April 2024).

[xvii]  Editorial: Ma’s visit comes at inflection point, Taipei Times, 18 April 2024,

 https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2024/04/18/2003816573 (Accessed on 25 April 2024).

[xviii]  R.O.C. (Taiwan) government has terminated diplomatic relations with the Republic of Nauru with immediate effect to uphold national dignity, 15 January 2024,   https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1328&sms=273&s=116429 (Accessed on 22 March 2024).

[xix]  Center for Strategic and International Studies, Toward a Stronger U.S.-Taiwan Relationship: A Report of the CSIS Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward Taiwan, October 2020, (Accessed on 26 April 2024).

[xx] Kayleigh Madjar, US says 41 military personnel in nation, Taipei Times, 25 April 2024, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/04/25/2003816917 (Accessed on 27 April 2024).

[xxi] Jasper Jolly, TSMC to make state-of-the-art chips in US after multibillion subsidy pledge, The Guardian, 8 April 2024,  https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/08/tsmc-make-chips-in-arizona-us-multibillion-subsidy-pledge-taiwan-semiconductor (Accessed on 25 April 2024).

[xxii] H.R.4004 - United States-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade First Agreement Implementation Act, https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/4004 (Accessed on 25 April 2024).

[xxiii]  H.R.540 - Taiwan Non-Discrimination Act of 2023,

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/540 (Accessed on 25 April  2024).

[xxiv]  Caitlin Yilek, Kaia Hubbard,  House approves aid bills for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, CBS News, 21 April  2024, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-vote-aid-bill-ukraine-israel-taiwan/ (Accessed on 25 April 2024).

[xxv]  Jake Chung, US Senate approves bill mandating aid to Taiwan, Taipei Times, 25 April 2024

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/04/25/2003816916 (Accessed on 26 April 2024).

[xxvi] Defending One China: Chinese mainland slams US military aid to Taiwan, urges US to stop arming Taiwan in any way, CGTN, 25 April 2024, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-04-25/VHJhbnNjcmlwdDc4Mzk3/index.html (Accessed on 26 April 2024).

[xxvii] Taiwan Defense Issues for Congress, CRS Reports, 19 April 2024, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R48044 (Accessed on 25 April 2024).

[xxviii] Kathrin Hille, US agrees to sell military aircraft tracking system to Taiwan, Financial Times, 24 August 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/365518c2-440b-4f63-9874-617cb6a9caf5  (Accessed on 25 April 2024).

[xxix]  Ryo Nakamura, U.S. and China hold defense talks ahead of Taiwan election, Asia Nikkie, 10 January 2024,  https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/U.S.-and-China-hold-defense-talks-ahead-of-Taiwan-election (Accessed on 25 March 2024).