Indian Council of World Affairs

In the national elections, what is of concern to the American voters are the day-to-day issues, such as the state of the economy, improvements in social security services and access to affordable housing. This is not to say foreign policy is not a factor in the elections. In 2006 and 2008, voters’ dissatisfaction with the Iraq War helped the Democratic Party gain control of the United States Congress (U.S Congress) and aided in the election of President Obama. Over the years, it has been observed that foreign policy has become more prominent in elections which coincide with a major international crisis and when there is considerable difference between the two candidates on foreign policy issues. The political landscape in the United States has also changed during the last two election cycles with the partisan divide becoming more pronounced. As elections get closer, it is possible that foreign policy decisions could tip the election results in favour of one candidate over the other in the current elections. 

While President Biden and former President Trump wait for their respective parties’ national conventions to announce their candidatures officially, it has become evident that two foreign policy issues — immigration and the Israel-Hamas confrontation — played a significant role in the primaries. The Republican Party has followed a strategy of stressing the failings of the Biden Administration on not just these two issues but larger foreign policy decisions. The Democrats, on the other hand, are highlighting the Administration’s balanced approach to addressing complex issues in line with American values and protecting its interests abroad. This paper looks at the debates in America on the above two issues and the American voters’ views. 

Foreign Policy Issues Guiding Domestic Discourse 

Immigration has emerged as an important subject in the current elections, along with inflation and the state of the economy. According to a Gallup poll (February 2024), 28 per cent feel that immigration is the single most important issue facing America today. The last time such a high percentage of people felt that the immigration was of importance was in July 2019, when there was a surge in illegal border crossings by Central American migrants. The poll also points to a partisan divide with Republican supporters (57 per cent) more likely to view the matter as important as opposed to those who support the Democratic Party.[i] According to a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Ipsos survey (April 2024), among foreign policy issues, a majority of Americans (54 per cent) say that controlling and reducing illegal immigration should be a very important foreign policy goal for the United States.[ii]

Immigration has become an election subject in the past few years as the United States faces an increase in illegal crossings by migrants from across its southern border. Apart from migrants from Central and South America, the rise in global migration due to socio-political, economic and environmental crisis has also contributed to the surge of undocumented migrants trying to enter the United States. The influx of illegal migrants is straining the resources of states, with even the Democratic governors seeking more funding from the federal Administration to address the need for social support for the undocumented migrants. An affordable housing shortage within the United States has also exacerbated the difficulties, with restrictions on asylum seekers’ ability to work increasing dependency on state funds and an immigration system that is overwhelmed at every stage delaying the process of gaining legal status.[iii] The Republican Party argues that President Biden has reversed several immigration policies of the Trump Administration that would have helped check this large influx. The Biden Administration in turn has pointed that it has encouraged legal immigration to meet the demands of the American economy and is addressing the challenges on the southern border. 

Both parties have stated that they must work with Mexico to address the issue. They have also acknowledged the need for more funding for border security agencies and building capacity to enforce immigration laws, including increasing the number of judges in immigration courts. However, they do not agree on the policy path to achieve these goals. The Republicans have called for tougher laws, with former President Trump stating that he is open to mass deportations and increased detention of illegal migrants. The Democrats would like to streamline pathways for the legal status of undocumented migrants; however, given voter sentiments, the party finds itself in a tough position between their traditional view on immigration reforms and reducing the flow of illegal migrants. The Democrats point to the lack of support from the Republican members of the House who have voted against a border security bill, which would have reinstated immigration policies that were established during the Trump Administration, including the provision that asylum seekers will remain in Mexico. The Democratic Party have argued that the Republican members of the House would like to keep the issue alive as it is the central theme of President Trump’s campaign. Nonetheless, as cities struggle to house migrants, the average American now views undocumented immigrants as a burden on their city’s resources. 

The second foreign policy issue that is causing domestic ramifications is the growing dissatisfaction with the Administration’s handling of the Hamas-Israel crisis. The Republicans and Democrats have expressed support for Israel. However, as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza continues to escalate,[iv] the Biden Administration is facing a growing disconnect, especially from young voters, over its inability to negotiate a ceasefire. According to Gallup, half of the Americans think that the offensive has gone too far, and the number who view Israel favourably (though still high, at 58 per cent) is at its lowest in more than two decades. Students across major colleges in the United States have been protesting against the continued support for Israel, and it has led to debates in the United States on the right to free speech and protest. Young voters are part of the Democrats’ natural support base, but current polls show President Biden is trailing behind his rival in their support. Compounded with this is the rise in uncommitted votes-voters who voted for no candidate or a candidate other than President Biden during the Democratic primaries. The Democratic primary in Michigan and Minnesota saw a large number of people cast ‘uncommitted’ ballots. Similar ballots were observed in Hawaii, North Carolina, Massachusetts and Washington.[v] While this does not mean automatic support for former President Trump, the White House is likely to be concerned given that less than 50,000 votes decided the 2020 election in three swing states, including Michigan. 

The Biden Administration’s efforts to balance its support for Israel while keeping in mind the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, has opened it to criticism from certain sections within the party and from the opposition. The Republicans have stated that they are supporting an ally, the only democracy in the region and a fight against terror but have yet to outline their strategy to resolve the crisis. They have been critical of the Biden Administration’s decision to pause shipment of certain types of weapons to Israel due to the latter’s decision to expand military operations to the civilian centre of Rafah. President Biden also faces divisions within his party with twenty six House Democrats, such as Reps Josh Gottheimer (NJ), Jared Golden (Maine), Haley Stevens (Mich.) and Steven Horsford (Nev.), having written to President Biden to reconsider his decision to pause shipment of weapons to Israel, while other have supported his decision and would like him to do more in an effort to pressure Israel to protect the civilian population in Gaza. It needs to be noted that the Biden Administration has informed the Congress that the United States will continues to provide military assistance to Israel as committed under the supplemental funding bill which was passed earlier this year. 

The Republican controlled House of Representatives has passed a bill that would restrict the President’s ability to withhold weapons transfers to Israel. The bill got the support of sixteen Democrat members of the House. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y) has indicated that the bill will not be passed by the Senate. And the White House has also stated that it will veto any such bill, if it is presented to the President. However, the support from some House Democrats to the bill shows the division in the party when unity is important as they face a formidable opponent in President Trump for the White House in November this year. 

Conclusion 

In an interconnected world, foreign policy is interlinked to domestic politics. There is a growing pattern of linking of issues such as how undocumented migrants are taking away jobs from Americans and are enjoying social welfare which is funded by American tax payers. Similarly support for Israel is linked to American values. 

For the American voters, foreign policy issues comes in as a factor as they form their perceptions of a leader who will have the right attitude to serve as the Commander-in-Chief and be able to protect American interests and image in the international arena. For the moment, the concern for the Democrats is that the Biden Administration is losing this battle of perception, with the Republicans being successful in building the image that the Administration is unable to protect American interests abroad. The Republicans are building on the narrative that a Trump Presidency would focus on a strong America under a strong President while the Democrats have stressed on American power regaining strength under President Biden. 

The precise role of foreign policy in the 2024 elections remains to be seen. But it is clear that the outcome of this election will have an impact on the future trajectory of the foreign policy of the United States.

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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Jeffery Jones, “Immigration Surges to Top of Most Important Problem List February 2024,” https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx#:~:text=Immigration%20also%20ranked%20as%20the,the%20highest%20in%20Gallup's%20trend, Accessed May 09, 2024.

[ii] The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “Democrats and Republicans Starkly Divided on Immigration Policy May 2024,” https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/democrats-and-republicans-starkly-divided-immigration-policy#footnoteref1_goxnntc, Accessed May 09, 2024.

[iii] CBS News, “As cities struggle to house migrants, Biden Administration resists proposals that officials say could help, August 22, 2023,” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/migrant-crisis-nyc-chicago-biden-Administration-proposals/, Accessed May 14, 2024.

[iv] The United Nations has stated that Gaza's entire population is facing a severe food crisis, escalating the risk of famine and disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups.

[v] Unlike most delegates awarded to candidates in primaries and caucuses, “uncommitted” delegates are not obligated to vote for any particular candidate at the Democratic National Convention to be held later in Chicago.