Indian Council of World Affairs

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum of the Morena Party, has won the Presidential elections in Mexico by a wide margin (winning close to 60 percent of the votes). As the first woman President, she makes a powerful statement for women’s empowerment, not just in Mexico but in the region as a whole. It needs to be noted that until 1953, women did not have the right to vote in the national elections[i]. Therefore, the Presidential election in which the two frontrunners were women is an important achievement in female representation in the political sphere of Mexico. President-elect Sheinbaum acknowledged the historic moment in her victory speech, stating that being the first woman President in the 200-year history of the Republic was not just her achievement but the achievement of all women in Mexico. The opposition Presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez, of the Fuerza y Corazón por México (Strength and Heart for Mexico) a political alliance between the PAN, PRD, and PRI[ii], in congratulating her opponent stated it was a historical milestone for Mexico that it now has its first women President and it was an important advancement in gender equality within the country.

Along with the President, Mexico also elected all members of the Mexican Congress and governors in eight states, the head of the Mexico City government and a number of local officials. The Morena Party, in coalition with the Green Party and Workers’ Party, won two-thirds of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, with the coalition two votes shy of a supermajority in the Mexican Congress. The Morena Party, created in 2014, is known for its support of economic austerity, nationalism, and the welfare state and is headed by President Obrador. President-elect Sheinbaum is a member of the Morena Party and the coalition’s majority provides her with an opportunity to pass constitutional reforms many of which are on the table, by gaining the support of two senators from the Mexican Congress. The Morena Party also won seven of the nine contested state governorships, even in traditional opposition strongholds. These additions give the Morena Party control over 24 out of 32 governorships, including the powerful governorship of Mexico City. This dominance provides President- elect Sheinbaum with an opportunity to push her agenda at the federal, state, and municipal levels and achieve coordination across levels of government that has been long elusive in Mexico.[iii]

This paper highlights two major domestic and foreign policy concerns, which are interlinked with each other, that the new President would have to address during her term. 

Domestic Challenges


While Mexico celebrated the election of its new President, the elections were marred by violence with the death of a number of candidates in the local elections. The killing of Yolanda Sanchez, the Mayor of Cotija town in the state of Michoacán, two days after the election results were declared, has highlighted the increasing violence in Mexico. The first challenge for the new President would be to strengthen the law and order situation in the country. President Obrador has faced criticism for the deteriorating security in the country. His policy of ‘Hugs, not bullets’, which aimed to reduce poverty and raise wages and the creation of a national guard to reduce crime, have been largely ineffective to curb violence or reduce the lure of the drug cartels for the young. Today, given the number of cartels and the influence they exercise, it has become difficult for the states and federal authorities to take action against them. It was one of the top issues of concern for the voters during the current election. President-elect Sheinbaum, during her campaign, committed to expanding youth programmes to address the root cause of violence. She has also stated that she will strengthen the National Guard and intelligence agencies, along with the offices of the prosecutors and the police. Given that violence is a structural issue caused by factors such as inequality, poverty, the demand for illegal drugs, corruption among security forces, and increasingly powerful transnational crime, the President-elect and her administration would have to find practical solutions to address the challenge in the near and long term. For the new administration, there is an urgent need to address the security situation, as it will likely have effects on their economic and social policy agenda.

The second major challenge would be on the economic front. President-elect Sheinbaum inherits a fiscal deficit that has increased close to 6 percent of the gross domestic product, the largest in the past quarter of a century, despite the austerity drive of the current government. During her campaign, the President-elect pledged to continue with the current social spending programmes, especially for the elderly, disabled and youth. To fund such projects, the government would need to increase state revenue. The focus has been on the nationalisation of the energy sector, which accounts for close to 20 percent of total government revenues in recent years. However, with the state-owned Pemex company losing money and no private investments, the new administration would have to find other means to stimulate growth in the economy. One such option that was outlined during the campaign was to attract more American companies that are looking for ‘near shoring’ options, that is, shifting supply chains to partner nations and/or countries that are geographically closer to the United States. As a free trade partner, Mexico can use the shift in American economic policy to its advantage; however, to do so, it would need to commit to better enforcement of the rule of law and invest in developing its infrastructure, such as improving its electricity network and grids. To achieve both its energy requirements and to build new industries, Mexico can explore renewable. As a climate scientist, President-elect Sheinbaum has stated that she would like Mexico to move to clean energy resources; however, she is committed to upholding her predecessor’s pledge to keep at least 54% of electricity generation under state control. It will be very difficult to fulfil this pledge unless the state electricity company, Comisión Federal de Electricidad, rapidly increases its generating capacity while phasing out coal and diesel. 

The other aspect of the economy that President-elect Sheinbaum would need to focus on is the growth of the formal sector of employment. The informal sector of the economy is large, employing more than half of Mexico’s workforce, with approximately 60 per cent of Mexico’s labour force being informal workers. They work low-skill jobs that are neither taxed nor monitored by the government, and the construction industry has recorded the highest number of such workers in the past year.[iv] Given Mexico’s requirement for low-skilled workers, the informal work sector is important; however, high and persistent levels of informal employment have contributed to the sluggish growth of the economy as these jobs are low-paying without any state protection. The new administration would have to focus on job creation while attracting foreign investments. Perhaps now is the time to explore the need to build a green economy that will be future-ready. 

Foreign policy issue

Interlinked to the domestic challenges before President-elect Sheinbaum are Mexico’s relations with its northern neighbour, the United States. President-elect Sheinbaum will be inaugurated into her office shortly before the United States Presidential elections, and this would  be a variable that the new Mexican Administration would need to factor in. Relations between the two newly elected Presidents in Mexico and the United States would shape security, trade and immigration policies for the future. While Mexico is looking to take advantage of the current US-China tensions to attract more American companies to Mexico, two issues, drug trafficking and migration, have gained prominence in their relationship, which remains interlinked with the domestic policies of Mexico.

On the first issue of drug trafficking, the United States is not only Mexico’s most important trading partner but is also the largest consumer of drugs that pass through or are produced in Mexico. According to the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (USDEA), drug trafficking organisations and criminal groups located in Mexico are the predominant smugglers, transporters and wholesale distributors of cocaine, marijuana, methamphetamine and Mexico-produced heroin in the United States.[v] They also state that the Mexican drug cartels are responsible for the fentanyl smuggled into the United States, which is the greatest threat facing Americans today.[vi] The Mexican government is building on domestic policies to address the growth of illegal criminal organisations, and as a result of the security of the people, it is working with its American counterpart to address this complex issue.

The second issue of the movement of large number of domestic as well as foreign migrants passing through Mexico to enter the United States through illegal means, has been a persistent issue that has caused much stress in Mexico’s relations with its northern neighbours. Mexico has worked closely with the United States to ease migratory pressure at the border, with multiple state agencies working to block or redirect asylum-seekers from around the world away from the US-Mexico border. President-elect Sheinbaum, met a delegation of U.S. officials led by White House Homeland Security Advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, indicating that the two nations will continue partner with each other to find solutions to the problem of illegal migration and combating the production and trafficking of drugs. President-elect Sheinbaum has stressed the need for more coordination between the two nations and has stated that she would follow her predecessor’s efforts to build bridges rather than walls with the United States. Coordination and cooperation, based on respect for national sovereignty, emerge as essential elements to face the migration crisis in Mexico. For President-elect Sheinbaum, greater investment in the places of origin of migrant groups is a fundamental part of the long-term solution, and she has called on the United States to invest more in Mexico and Central America to reduce the pressure to move northwards. She has also proposed strengthening the industrial capacity of the southern border to expand employment opportunities and labour integration, hoping to generate better living conditions that will ideally reduce the need for people to migrate. Keeping with this policy of addressing the root cause of the problem, President-elect Sheinbaum would have to also work closely with Mexico’s southern neighbours in Central America.

President Biden’s recent Executive Order “bar(s) migrants who cross our Southern border unlawfully from receiving asylum”. The order further states, “These actions are not permanent. They will be discontinued when the number of migrants who cross the border between ports of entry is low enough for America’s system to safely and effectively manage border operations”.[vii] The US Administration has justified the measures in the face of a large number of crossings and to ease pressure on the overburdened immigration courts and border officials. Mexico has expressed its opposition to the order but has maintained that cultural and trade ties will ensure that the borders remain open. However, for Mexico, the scenario is complicated by the possibility of the return to the White House of President Trump, whose strident positions on migrants and drugs are likely to add stress to the relations. And the President-elect has maintained that irrespective of who occupies the White House, she will maintain good relations with the United States, which is in the interest of both nations. The coincidence of this year's electoral cycle in Mexico and the United States highlights the relevance of the migration agenda, which largely defines the bilateral relationship between the two countries.

Conclusion

New leaders take office, face challenges and opportunities, and Mexico’s next President will be no different. As Mexico’s first female President, President-elect Sheinbaum faces high expectations, particularly from the country’s active feminist movement. Her other challenge would be to strike a balance with President Obrador’s legacy and continue his policies in key areas such as energy, mining, infrastructure, health, security, and proposed reforms to Mexican institutions while building her own policy perspectives on these issues and working towards attracting private business investments into Mexico to overcome the stagnation in the economy. The election of President-elect Sheinbaum comes at an opportune moment for Mexico. Her background in climate science provides her with an advantage to lay the foundations for Mexico’s transformation to a more green economy and make it future-ready. It will also help Mexico meet its climate commitment and reduce its dependence on the energy sector for its revenues. However, the transformation of Mexico remains dependent on President-elect Sheinbaum being able to deliver on her pledge to address the root cause of violence and maintain law and order in Mexico, which is impeding its economic progress. Mexico and the world will have to wait and watch as she addresses the challenges before her country and builds policies that will benefit the political, economic and social future of Mexico.

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*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
The views expressed are personal. 

Endnotes

[i] Yucatan was the first Mexican state to recognize women’s right to vote in 1923.

[ii] Partido Acción Nacional (National Action Party), The Partido de la Revolución Democrática (Democratic Revolution Party) and The Partido de la Revolución Democrática (Democratic Revolution Party).

[iii] Vanda Felbab-Brown and Diana Paz García, “Mexico, López Obrador, and Sheinbaum’s presidential victory,” https://www.brookings.edu/articles/mexico-lopez-obrador-and-sheinbaums-presidential-victory/Accessed on 14 June 2024

[iv]Government of Mexico, “Data Mexico,” https://www.economia.gob.mx/datamexico/en/profile/geo/mexico#education-and-employment, Accessed on 07 June 2024.

[v] USDEA, “North And Central America,” https://www.dea.gov/foreign-offices/north-and-central-america, Accessed on 07 June 2024

[vi] USDEA, “Fentanyl Supply Chain,” https://www.dea.gov/resources/fentanyl-supply-chain, Accessed on 07 June 2024

[vii] The White House, “Fact Sheet: President Biden Announces New Actions to Secure the Border 04 June 2024,” https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/04/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-new-actions-to-secure-the-border/#:~:text=President%20Biden%20issued%20a%20proclamation,into%20the%20United%20States%20unlawfully, Accessed on 13 June 2024.