Indian Council of World Affairs

Bougainville is currently an autonomous region within Papua New Guinea (PNG) in the South Pacific. Located in eastern PNG, the Autonomous Region of Bougainville (ARB) (formerly known as the Northern Solomons Province), is the only region which has such a political status in the country. It has been almost five years since Bougainvilleans voted for independence from PNG in a referendum held in 2019, with 97.7 percent in favour of independence. However, so far the dialogue between the national government of PNG and Bougainville government, over the ratification of the referendum results, has remained inconclusive. The recent meeting of Joint Supervisory Body (JSB) was held in May 2024 in Port Moresby, PNG and was attended by Prime Minister of PNG James Marape and Bougainville’s President Ishmael Toroama, where both sides agreed on the need for a moderator to break the stalemate.[i] The next meeting of the JSB has been decided to be held in August 2024. 

What Is the Situation in Bougainville All About? 

The remote island region of Bougainville has an estimated population of around 300,000, majority of which live in rural areas[ii] and are ethnically more similar to neighbouring Solomon Islands than the PNG. The Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG), formed in 2001, functions “as the official governing entity within the ARB and also to represent and advocate for the interests of Bougainvilleans in the national context of PNG and in international affairs”.[iii] The ABG is headed by President Ishmael Toroama, elected in 2020 with the mandate of achieving sovereign status for the region. Toroama has been a key figure in Bougainville’s long quest for independence. 

During the 19^th Century, Bougainville was part of German administration since 1885 under the German New Guinea Company. With the outbreak of the First World War, Australia occupied all of German New Guinea in 1914. At the conclusion of the war, German New Guinea was declared a League of Nations mandate, to be administered by Australia. Tension again surfaced over the region, when during the Second World War, Japan invaded and occupied the region in 1942 and constructed multiple airfields and other strategic assets. Later in 1943, Allied forces launched counter-invasion and took back control over the region and the Bougainville became an important air base for the Allies. Following the War, Australia took over the administration of all the British and German New Guinea territories.[iv] Later, Bougainville was incorporated into the PNG in 1974, when the PNG gained independence from Australia. Bougainville was granted a degree of autonomy within PNG through a provincial system of government. However, since then the Bougainvilleans have been demanding independence from PNG with the long held desire for self-determination. As President Ishmael Toroama said, “independence has been our dream since the days of our forefathers”.[v] Bougainvilleans have always claimed cultural and ethnic uniqueness, which they feel has been neglected in PNG. 

The Panguna mine in Bougainville has been an important reason for the discontent of the local population.  The mine is one of the world’s largest open cut mines and is estimated to have $60 billion worth of copper, gold and silver.[vi] The mine and extensive mineral wealth of Bougainville have been a trigger for the conflict.

 
Figure no 1: Maps depicting the location of Bougainville and Panguna Mine

The operations of Panguna mine were managed by the PNG Government and, Rio Tinto Limited, a British-Australian company.[vii] The produce from the mine contributed to a major portion of PNG’s total exports. The local communities in Bougainville were unhappy that most of the revenues were being enjoyed by the company and PNG. They felt that local landowners were given a little amount of compensation for their land, also the local communities were concerned about the environmental fallout from the mine’s waste including copper contamination of rivers and waterways, and agricultural and health related issues.[viii] At the same time, they were also upset over the influx of outsiders in Bougainville working in mining operations.[ix]

All these factors resulted in violent conflict and Bougainville fell into a decade long civil war in the late 1980s. Widespread conflicts forced the closure of Panguna in 1989 as Rio Tinto shut down its operations. In the 10 year violence in Bougainville nearly 15,000 people died and it caused an almost breakdown of the economic and social fabric of the province. 

The conflict finally came to an end with the signing of the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. It provided a roadmap for a peace process, granted greater autonomy for Bougainville, and guaranteed a referendum on Bougainville’s political future to be held. The agreement mentions that “independence must be an option and the outcome is subject to the final decision-making authority of the National Parliament of PNG”.[x] It also required that the two governments hold consultations on the result of the referendum. In line with the Agreement, the autonomous government i.e. ABG, was set up in 2001. This was followed by a referendum held in 2019. 

After the referendum was held, the US Department of States, in a statement congratulating both the sides, said that, the US is pleased to have assisted the Bougainville Referendum Commission and local civil society organisations, in conducting the referendum, including through the efforts of the US Agency for International Development and the US Embassy in Port Moresby, and is ready to support further as PNG and Bougainville work together to determine their future.[xi] It is important to note here that, according to the information provided by the Bougainville Referendum Commission, the funding shortage of about US $ 2 million to host the referendum were filled by contributions from the US, along with Australia, New Zealand and Japan.[xii]

In 2022, PNG and Bougainville signed the Era Kone Covenant for Finalisation of Bouganville Refrendum on Independence, which mentioned that “the results of the Referendum were independently assessed as free, fair, and credible and conducted in accordance with due procedures and internationally accepted standards with an absolute majority of 97.7% in favor of independence”.[xiii] The Covenant set 2023 as the deadline for the PNG Parliament to ratify the referendum. As per the Covenant the two sides also agreed that, the outcome of joint consultations between the two parties, relating to political settlement/independence, shall be implemented by no earlier than 2025 and no later than 2027. 

The Road Ahead 

As the deadline for the final solution nears, the dialogue between the two sides has stalled. Parliamentary ratification which was supposed to be done by 2023, has not been done. The two parties have been having major disagreements over the ratification process. A main issue has been that while Bougainville wants the parliamentary vote to be a simple majority, on the other hand, PNG says it should be a two-thirds majority.[xiv] As the political deadlock between the two sides continues, the future still looks uncertain for Bougainville. 

Toroama had also visited Washington in 2023 to seek US support for Bougainville’s political aspirations and also publicly called for backing from Australia.[xv] He is determined not to settle for anything less than independence. On the other hand, in PNG the issue of the political status of Bougainville has been one of the most crucial issues facing the country’s leadership, but PNG does not seem to be in a rush to let go of Bougainville and its immense resources. 

As Bougainville prepares itself for independence, it has recently also released the first draft of the proposed Constitution. However, if one were to assess at present, many of the institutions required to sustain a newly formed functioning state are yet to be realised on the ground. The economy of the region remains weak and it lacks basic health and education facilities, and faced with a high mortality rate. Bougainville remains largely dependent on PNG and international aid donors to sustain itself. If Bougainville’s independence dream by 2027 is realised, the challenge before the new state will be to be able to provide basic facilities and infrastructures that are lacking currently. 

From the economic perspective, Bougainville’s will certainly be looking at the prospect of reopening the Panguna mine, for which talks are already going on. The mine is the sregion’s most important asset and best bet to realise economic sufficiency. But it will take years to revive the mining operations and again it can only realised with the support of external powers. There are reports that some companies from Australia and China have already shown interest in the mine. China has also approached Bougainville to invest in “key development projects”, which Bougainville says “is worth considering for the benefit of the people.[xvi] All of this will add new dimensions to power politics in the region. 

Bougainville will have to navigate through the complex geopolitics of the region. In recent years, the South Pacific has become an increasingly contested space in overall geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. Bougainville may get caught in the competition between bigger players given its strategic location and huge amount of mineral wealth. After the independence, Bougainville will also have to choose sides between China and Taiwan, both of which have offered support to it in the past on different occasions.[xvii] Recently, the US-China rivalry has also been surfacing in the South Pacific. Currently, Bougainville is part of PNG, one of the largest and most populated island countries in the region, which moved more closer to the US with the recent signing of crucial agreements with the US for furthering security cooperation. On the other hand, Bougainville’s neighbour the Solomon Islands has been closely pursued by China in recent years. It signed a crucial security cooperation agreement with China in 2022, causing large scale apprehensions among traditional regional players. In these circumstances, the challenge for an independent Bougainville will be how to first, avoid getting caught up in a zero-sum game between the US and China and secondly, how it will use its bargaining power while engaging with the major regional and extra regional powers. These are the hard questions that remain open as Bougainville seeks complete sovereignty from PNG. 

While things look uncertain at this stage, however, if Bougainville is successful in achieving its long sought goal of independence by 2027, it will become the world's newest nation in the strategic waters of the South Pacific, which is gaining significance in the larger power games of the wider Indo-Pacific region.

*****

*Dr. Pragya Pandey, Research Fellow, ICWA.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Prime Minister Hon. James Marape and Bougainville President H.E. Ishmael Toroama Discuss Post-Referendum, May 9, 2024, https://pmnec.gov.pg/prime-minister-hon-james-marape-and-bougainville-president-h-e-ishmael-toroama-discuss-post-referendum-issues/

[ii] Autonomous Region of Bougainville, Quick facts, https://abg.gov.pg/about/quick-facts

[iii] How ABG Workshttps://abg.gov.pg/government/how-abg-works

[iv] Bougainville's journey to the present, https://abg.gov.pg/index.php/about/history , also see: History of the Bougainville conflict, Parliament of Australia, https://www.aph.gov.au/parliamentary_business/committees/house_of_representatives_committees?url=jfadt/bougainville/bv_chap2.pdf

[v] A message from the President, https://abg.gov.pg/

[vi] Panguna mine at centre of bloody Bougainville conflict set to reopen after 30 years, February 2022,  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/panguna-mine-at-centre-of-bloody-bougainville-conflict-set-to-reopen-after-30-years#:~:text=Panguna%20was%20once%20one%20of,%2460bn%20at%20today's%20prices.

[vii] History of the Bougainville conflict, Parliament of Australia, https://www.aph.gov.au/parliamentary_business/committees/house_of_representatives_committees?url=jfadt/bougainville/bv_chap2.pdf

[viii] Political deadlock frustrates Bougainville’s aspirations of independence, 27 June 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/27/political-deadlock-frustrates-bougainvilles-aspirations-of-independence

[ix] History of the Bougainville conflict, Parliament of Australia, https://www.aph.gov.au/parliamentary_business/committees/house_of_representatives_committees?url=jfadt/bougainville/bv_chap2.pdf

[x] Bougainville Peace Agreementhttps://abg.gov.pg/peace-agreement

[xi] Completion of the Bougainville Referendum, Press Statement, Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary Of State, December 16, 2019, https://2017-2021.state.gov/completion-of-the-bougainville-referendum/

[xii] U.S. edges China out of race to fund Bougainville independence vote, October 16, 2019,  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-papua-bougainville-china/u-s-edges-china-out-of-race-to-fund-bougainville-independence-vote-idUSKBN1WV085/

[xiii] https://abg.gov.pg/images/misc/Signed_Era_Kone_Covenant_050422.pdf

[xiv] Political deadlock frustrates Bougainville’s aspirations of independence, 27 June 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/27/political-deadlock-frustrates-bougainvilles-aspirations-of-independence

[xv]I.bid

[xvi] Bougainville, PNG to appoint moderator as independence process stalls, 8 may 2024,  https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/pacific/bougainville-png-independence-moderator-05082024211844.html

[xvii] The Next Five Years Are Crucial for Bougainville’s Independence Bid, August 12, 2022,  https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/08/next-five-years-are-crucial-bougainvilles-independence-bid