Indian Council of World Affairs

This year is an important year for China-Russia relations. The two countries have strengthened their bilateral relationship, and 2024 marks 75 years of China-Russia relations. To mark the occasion President Putin visited China from 16–19 May 2024. It was his first visit to China since the beginning of his fifth term as President and to any foreign land after being re-elected a third time. Xi Jinping also visited Moscow in March 2023 after securing a third term as the President. There have been recent developments in China-Russia relations which point towards further consolidation of their relationship, especially in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war which this paper seeks to highlight.   

Analysing the Recent Trends in Russia-China Relations 

In 2022, on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics, President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin signed the “no limits partnership.” In a joint statement, they emphasised that the bilateral relationship has no limits and no forbidden areas of cooperation between them. Soon after signing the no-limit partnership, Russia led the military offensive over Ukraine. In the last two years, China has refused to condemn the Russia-Ukraine war and has helped Russia acquire equipment, from machine tools to engines and drones, crucial for the war effort.^[i] It may be noted that China and Russia do not call their relationship an alliance and have not offered one another security guarantees like those covered by NATO’s Article 5.^[ii]

Notably, the strong personal relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin has been instrumental in nurturing the warm relations between Moscow and Beijing. During the trip, Putin reinstated “Russian and Chinese are brothers forever” by quoting a 75-year-old song. He said, “I am sure that we will continue strengthening the fraternal spirit of the harmonious Russian-Chinese partnership.” ^[iii]

On the frequent meetings of the leaders, an expert on the subject said that the high frequency of meetings signifies that under pressure from the West, Russia’s determination to “turn to the East” is becoming more rock-solid. Yang Jin, an Associate Research Fellow with the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the close interaction between the leaders is “crucial for maintaining regional stability and peace and setting the direction for advancing regional development.” [iv]

President Putin’s 2024 visit was significant in many ways. It is the 43^rd meeting of the two leaders. He was honoured with a red carpet welcome in Beijing. Further highlighting their strong relationship, Xi Jinping invited President Putin to his official residence, Zhongnanhai. Until now, only a few leaders have been given this kind of reception, like Barack Obama in 2014. President Putin and President Xi Jinping made a speech at the gala concert devoted to the 75^th anniversary of Russia-China diplomatic relations and the opening of Russia and China’s years of culture.^[v] President Putin also travelled to Harbin to attend the opening ceremony of the VIII Russian Chinese Expo and met students at the Harbin Institute of Technology. It was announced that the Russian sovereign wealth fund would open an office in Harbin. 

The outcome document of the visit was a joint statement on “Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era.” It may be noted that the joint statement adds to the “no-limits” relationship signed in 2022 between China and Russia.^[vi]

During the visit, leaders highlighted that the bilateral relationship is “a prime example of a new form of international relations as well as good neighbourly relations between two major countries.” They attributed the success of bilateral relations to five principles: mutual respect, win-win cooperation, lasting friendship, strategic coordination, fairness and justice. These principles exemplify the understanding of the current international situation and the stage of the bilateral relationship.^[vii]

The timing of President Putin’s visit is also important because it was scheduled just a few weeks after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China where he raised concerns about China’s support for Russia’s military. The US concerns were not addressed. The hospitality given and the joint statement signed by the two Presidents signal that Russia still has a powerful ally. The continuation of high-level visits from both sides indicates that Russia is not isolated. The visit was high on symbolism and messaging. ^[viii]

Chinese Position on the Russia-Ukraine War 

On 24 February 2024, China published “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis”. The document reflects the position of the Chinese government on the Ukraine issue.^[ix]  In an interview given to Xinhua, Vladimir Putin has approved China’s plan as a “genuine desire” to end the war in Ukraine.^[x] However, on his recent European visit, Xi Jinping said China is “neither the creator of the crisis nor a party to it or a participant.” [xi]

China has appointed Li Hui as the Special Representative of the Chinese government in Ukraine. As a part of shuttle diplomacy, from 3–9 May 2024, he visited Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. He held talks with diplomats and high-ranking officials of these countries on Ukraine. This was his third trip of shuttle diplomacy.[xii] The first round of shuttle diplomacy was in May 2023, when Li Hui visited Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany, the EU headquarters and Russia. The second was between Russia, Ukraine and other European countries.[xiii]

China also skipped the peace plan summit held in Switzerland to which Russia was not invited.^[xiv] On 31 May 2024, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning expounded on  China’s position and said that “the arrangements for the first Ukrainian ‘Peace Summit’ in Switzerland are significantly different from China's requirements and the general expectations of the international community, and it is difficult for China to attend the meeting.” He added that China stands for an international conference that entails three elements: recognition by both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation by all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans.^[xv]

China-Russia Military Assistance: According to the US, China is backing Russia’s military effort.^[xvi] In an interview with BBC News, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “About 70 per cent of the machines and 90 per cent of the microelectronics Russia imports come from China.” Reportedly, China exports more than $300 million of dual-use items to Russia every month and has become a conduit of goods for Russia’s defence industry. ^[xvii] Overall, China has emerged as the largest supplier of commercial goods and dual-use components.^[xviii] On the contrary, China has denied this and argues that it does not provide arms to either side or control dual-use items. China claims it has the right to engage in normal economic and trade exchanges with all countries, including Russia.^[xix]

In addition, Russia and China have announced they will deepen their already close military ties. During the recent visit, both sides announced they would conduct military drills. In March 2024, the Chinese, Iranian and Russian navies conducted joint drills in the Gulf of Oman.^[xx] China and Russia also conducted a joint exercise in the South China Sea (Joint Sea-2024 military exercise) and a joint maritime patrol in the Northern and Western Pacific Ocean. [xxi]

China-Russia Camaraderie at the Multilateral Level:  At the global level, China and Russia are coordinating in the multilateral institutions. They are coordinating with each other to block the US from advancing its agenda. China and Russia are the founding members of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). However, BRICS and SCO operate by consensus. ^[xxii] On 3 July, President Xi Jinping and President Putin met in Astana, Kazakhstan, on the sidelines of the SCO Summit. They highlighted that the two sides should continue to “conserve the unique value” of China-Russia relations. President Putin emphasised that the SCO was “strengthening its role as one of the key pillars of a fair multipolar world order” and emphasised that they are not creating any block or alliance aimed at anyone. [xxiii] As at the United Nations Security Council, the two organisations are witness to Russia-China coordination at regional and global platforms. 

Reinforcement of China-Russia Economic Ties: The Sino-Russian relationship has evolved from Cold War rivalry to a strategic partnership based on economic ties. China is now Russia’s largest trading partner and biggest Asian investor.^[xxiv] There are booming economic ties between the two sides. In 2023, bilateral trade was $240 billion.^[xxv] Russia’s trade with China has become the lifeline to the war-torn Russian economy.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-69013520

During the visit, President Putin met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Premier Li elucidated that China is ready to work with Russia to synergise the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union, promote regional economic integration and development, enhance trade liberalisation and facilitation and deepen cooperation in areas like economy, trade, energy and connectivity. ^[xxvi] Economic cooperation was the thrust of the meeting, and it was evident that the word “cooperation” was used 130 times.^[xxvii]

Russia is facing the issue of international transactions in managing its foreign trade. They have been cut off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), and the number of transborder transaction channels has decreased drastically.^[xxviii]

In December 2023, one-third of Russia’s foreign trade was regularly settled in yuan. The value of yuan-dominated loans in Russia has more than tripled. The share of yuan in trades on the Moscow Exchange in 2023 was 42 per cent. [xxix] China often comes to the rescue of Russia, as the European Union stopped importing oil from Russia, China stepped in. In March 2024, China imported 1.82 barrels per day (bpd). China also receives oil through pipelines.^[xxx] Therefore, Western sanctions have failed to affect the Russian economy. China continues to significantly help Russia in ameliorating the adverse impact of Western sanctions on its economy. 

Conclusion 

The Russia-Ukraine war has become the biggest European war since the end of the Second World War. China has neither condemned the war nor has it stopped its economic support for Russia. China has been supporting Russia’s war efforts in all possible ways.  The US-China trade war and the subsequent sanctions have further pushed China towards Russia. On the other hand side, Russia, amidst the Western sanctions, has no choice but to cooperate with China. Notably, the Ukraine war has further consolidated China-Russia relations. The past three decades have been fruitful for China-Russia relations and have “grown stronger amidst wind and rain.”

*****

*Dr. Teshu Singh, Research Fellow, ICWA.
The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i] Joseph Torigian, Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons, 24 June 2024, Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-russia-lessons- putin?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=fa_edit&utm_campaign=special_send_xi_russia_from_lessons_prospects&utm_term=ESPAZ004U4&utm_content=20240624 (Accessed on June 25, 2024).

[ii] Sergey Radchenko, an expert on Russia’s foreign relations, writes on its evolving friendship with China, The Economist, https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/02/15/sergey-radchenko-an-expert-on-russias-foreign-relations-writes-on-its-evolving-friendship-with-china (Accessed on June 25, 2024).

[iii] Akriti Anand, Russia’s Vladimir Putin meets ’old friend’ Xi Jinping of China. What happened next? Deals, concert and tea ceremony, Mint, 16 May 2024, https://www.livemint.com/news/world/russia-vladimir-putin-meets-old-friend-xi-jinping-of-china-what-happened-next-deals-concert-and-tea-party-11715870719109.html(Accessed on June 07, 2024).

[iv] Fan Anqi and Cui Fandi, Xi meets Russia's Putin in Astana, urging conservation of unique value in bilateral cooperation, People's Daily, July 04, 2024, http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0704/c90000-20189317.html

(Accessed on July 05, 2024).

[v] Russia and China open cross years of culture, May 16, 2024, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74052 (Accessed on June 05, 2024).

[vi] Joint statement of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China on deepening relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction, entering a new era, in the context of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, http://kremlin.ru/supplement/6132 (Accessed on June 05, 2024).

[vii] Chinese Foreign Ministry briefs media on Putin's state visit to China, CGTN, May 17, 2024, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-05-17/Chinese-Foreign-Ministry-briefs-media-on-Putin-s-state-visit-to-China-1tG8uExrAvS/p.html (Accessed on June 05, 2024).

[viii] Laura Bicker, Putin and Xi no longer have a partnership of equals, BBC, May 17, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2lekp48n78o (Accessed on June 10, 2024).

[ix] China’s Position on Political Solution to the Ukrainian Crisis, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202302/t20230224_11030707.shtml

(Accessed June 12, 2024)

[x] ‘Genuine desire’: Putin backs China peace plan to end Ukraine war, Al Jazeera, May 15, 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/15/genuine-desire-putin-backs-china-peace-plan-to-end-ukraine-war (Accessed June 12, 2024).

[xi] Laura Bicker, China-Russia relations: What is Xi Jinping prepared to pay for Putin’s war? , BBC, May 10, 2024,  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-69013520  (Accessed June 13, 2024)

[xii] China conducts third round of shuttle diplomacy on Ukraine crisis, CGTN, May 10, 2024, https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-05-10/China-conducts-third-round-of-shuttle-diplomacy-on-Ukraine-crisis-1tuyDJezgxq/p.html (Accessed June 13, 2024).

[xiii] Chinese special envoy’s second round of shuttle diplomacy aims to promote peace talks, Global Times, March 11, 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202403/1308623.shtml (Accessed June 14, 2024).

[xiv] Laurie Chen and Liz Lee, Exclusive: China pushes rival Ukraine peace plan before Swiss summit, diplomats say, Reuters, June 14, 2024

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-pushes-rival-ukraine-peace-plan-before-swiss-summit-diplomats-say-2024-06-13/ (Accessed June 17, 2024).

[xv] What is the essence of the “Swiss Peace Summit”? Why doesn't China participate? China Daily June 05, 2024, https://china.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202406/05/WS66601a1ba3109f7860de0b7d.html

(Accessed June 17, 2024).

[xvi] Steve Holland and Susan Heavey, US says China is boosting Russia's war machine in Ukraine, Reuters, April 15, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-china-is-boosting-russias-war-machine-ukraine-2024-04-12/

(Accessed June 18, 2024).

[xvii] China-Russia: an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world, Financial Times,

https://www.ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955 (Accessed June 18, 2024).

[xviii] Nathaniel Sher, Behind the Scenes: China’s Increasing Role in Russia’s Defense Industry, Carnegie, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/05/behind-the-scenes-chinas-increasing-role-in-russias-defense-industry?lang=en (Accessed June 17, 2024).

[xix] Khushboo Razdan, China’s support for Russia in Ukraine compels NATO to seek Asian partnerships: top official, South China Morning Post, June 18, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3266992/china-support-russia-ukraine-compels-nato-seek-asian-partnerships-top-official?module=top_story&pgtype=subsection

(Accessed June 18, 2024).

[xx] Amy Hawkins, Putin and Xi announce plans to strengthen military ties in Beijing, The Guardian, May 16, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/16/vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-announce-plans-strengthen-military-ties-beijing (Accessed June 21, 2024).

[xxi] Liu Xuanzun and Guo Yuandan, China, Russia hold simultaneous joint naval drill, patrol, Global Times, July 14, 2024, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202407/1315995.shtml  (Accessed July 16, 2024).

[xxii] Bonny Lin, The China-Russia Axis Takes Shape, Foreign Policy, September 11, 2023,

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/11/china-russia-alliance-cooperation-brics-sco-economy-military-war-ukraine-putin-xi/ (Accessed June 18, 2024).

[xxiii] Fan Anqi and Cui Fandi, Xi meets Russia’s Putin in Astana, urging conservation of unique value in bilateral cooperation, People’s Daily, July 04, 2024, http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0704/c90000-20189317.html

(Accessed on July 05, 2024)

[xxiv] Growing China-Russia alliance casts shadow over India's defence challenges, the Economist Times, May 17, 2024,https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/growing-china-russia-alliance-casts-shadow-over-indiasdefencechallenges/articleshow/110214673.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst (Accessed June 19, 2024).

[xxv] China-Russia: an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world, Financial Times,

 https://www.ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955 (Accessed June 18, 2024).

[xxvi] Amy Hawkins, Putin and Xi announce plans to strengthen military ties in Beijing, 16 May 2024, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/16/vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-announce-plans-strengthen-military-ties-beijing (Accessed June 21, 2024).

[xxvii] Laura Bicker, Putin and Xi no longer have a partnership of equals, BBC, May 17, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2lekp48n78o (Accessed June 18, 2024).

[xxviii] Alexandra Prokopenko, The Risks of Russia’s Growing Dependence on the Yuan, February 02, 2023, Carnegie, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/01/the-risks-of-russias-growing-dependence-on-the-yuan?lang=en (June 19, 2024)

[xxix] ibid

[xxx] Abhijeet Kumar, China becomes largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude as India goes slow, Business Standard, April 04, 2024, https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/china-becomes-largest-buyer-of-russian-seaborne-crude-as-india-goes-slow-124040400145_1.html (Accessed on June 12, 2023)