Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: There is growing convergence among Central Asian leaders to further deepen the regional cooperation in various fields and evolve an institutionalised mechanism through a consultative process. Such regional integration processes have a positive impact on regional & global peace and stability.

The Sixth Consultative Meeting of Heads of State of Central Asian Leaders was held in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 9 August 2024. The leaders discussed a wide range of issues on regional cooperation and mechanisms to address current and emerging challenges. The agenda included further strengthening of multifaceted cooperation, promotion of political dialogue and implementation of joint programmes in the region. The meeting was hosted by President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, and attended by the Presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In the extended format, the President of Azerbaijan and the Head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia participated as distinguished guests. 

The regional cooperation drive has been underway in Central Asia for some time. The process received a boost after Shavkat Mirziyoyev became the President of Uzbekistan in 2016. The first Consultative Summit started in 2018 with the initiative of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan leaders and has continued even through the COVID-19 pandemic phase. Over the period, the process led to the creation of mechanisms for interaction between the region’s national parliaments, security councils, industry departments and dialogue among women leaders.[1] In appreciation of the President of Uzbekistan, the regional leaders conferred on him in Astana on 9 August 2024 the “Medal of Honour of the Heads of State of Central Asia” for outstanding achievements in promoting friendship, good neighbourliness and mutual understanding between the states of the region.[2] 

There also seems an interest in Central Asia, especially from economic and connectivity perspectives, to include the South Caucasus region in the regional development framework. President of Azerbaijan, the largest country and economy of the South Caucasus, was invited to the Summit, which happened to be his 16^th visit to the region in the last two years.[3] In May 2024, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement to link the three countries’ energy grids. The President of Azerbaijan had also participated in the previous Consultative Meeting in Dushanbe in 2023. 

Impetus for Regional Cooperation 

The Consultative Summit exercise has given an impetus to the long-due regional cooperation agenda in Central Asia and has been tangibly fruitful. Trade and investment volumes have significantly gone up in the region over the period. The combined GDP of Central Asian countries is about US$ 450 billion, and their intra-regional trade increased by 80 per cent to US$ 11 billion over the past five years.[4] It is estimated that the trade turnover in the region can reach US$ 20 billion in the near future with effective use of current capacities.[5] Several cooperative projects are underway, and cross-border trade zones, value chains and modern transportation and energy infrastructure are being established. Significantly, a sense of community and regional identity is becoming increasingly visible. It is being claimed that citizens of the region’s countries feel positive changes in their daily lives.[6] 

The previous efforts of Central Asian countries to create a regional platform for interaction and integration could not fructify due to regional factors and extra-regional influences. The consultative process is gradually taking a formal shape with the Council of National Coordinators commencing its activities. The council aims to not only monitor the implementation of the concluded agreements but also to develop proposals for deepening cooperation.[7] The council is considered the first step towards institutionalising the format of the consultative meetings. The agenda for regional interaction has been expanding since the first meeting in Astana in 2018.[8] 

On the eve of the Consultative summit, President of Kazakhstan published an article discussing Central Asia’s regional developments, evolution of the consultative process, and the region’s engagement with other countries and organisations. It is maintained that the rapprochement processes towards ensuring long-term security and prosperity of the region have become ‘consistent and irreversible’. The article underlines that given the military and political situation in the region’s vicinity, there is a need for security and defence policy collaboration. It proposes the establishment of a ‘regional security architecture’ and the development of a ‘catalogue of security risks for Central Asia’ with ‘measures’ to prevent them.[9]

The key outcome of this year’s Consultative Meeting in Astana included devising a long-term cooperation strategy in regional, economic and infrastructural development. The Astana meeting highlighted the importance of expanding trade and economic partnerships and cooperation in the energy, agricultural and environmental sectors. Infrastructural projects were discussed, including the development of transport routes, such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, INSTC and the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway, which aims to connect the region with South Asia. 

Several important documents were adopted during the meeting: (a) Joint Statement on the outcomes of the sixth Consultative Meeting, (b) Concept of the development of regional cooperation “Central Asia-2040,” (c) Roadmap for the development of regional cooperation for 2025–27, (d) Resolution of the sixth Consultative Meeting on awarding President of Uzbekistan the “Medal of Honour of the Heads of Central Asian States,” (e) Plan of industrial cooperation of Central Asian states for 2025–27, (f) MoU on the development of transport and logistics centres in Central Asian countries, (g) Astana Communique of the sixth Consultative Meeting, (h) Communique on the results of the first meeting of Energy Ministers of Central Asian countries.[10] Though the document details may be available in future, the roadmap for regional cooperation 2025–27 and the Central Asia 2040 concept aim at improving intergovernmental coordination and developing regional collaboration mechanisms.[11]

Central Asia’s Collective View Towards Extra-regional Stakeholders 

The impact of growing regional cooperation in Central Asia is also manifested in the region’s interactions with other stakeholders active in the region. The Central Asian countries are increasingly adapting to the mechanism of collective engagement with other countries and regions through the C5+1 format mechanism. The Central Asia Five Plus One (CA5+1) has become a standard mechanism, which now includes India, China, the US, Germany, Russia and Italy, as well as plurilateral bodies, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council and European Union, as the region’s dialogue partners. Along with the sixth Consultative Summit, the inaugural CA + Japan dialogue was also scheduled, which was cancelled at the last minute as the Japanese Prime Minister could not travel following the reports of an earthquake in his country. 

A new +5 format for inter-regional economic engagement is also emerging. The US and Central Asian countries have launched B5+1 for economic cooperation, which held its inaugural meeting in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in March. The B5+1 is the private-sector-led counterpart to the C5+1, where “B” stands for business. The B5+1 platform aims to facilitate public-private sector dialogue to foster enhanced US-Central Asia economic partnership. It is expected that other interacting partners may also evolve similar mechanisms to synergise their engagement with regional countries of Central Asia. 

Conclusion 

The Consultative Summit mechanism has adopted a gradual and step-by-step process for regional cooperation and integration. The agenda has been expanding since the first consultative meeting in 2018. The Astana Summit highlighted wide prospects for the development of mutually beneficial cooperation in various spheres and the scope of effective cooperation between the participating countries on multilateral platforms and international organisations. There seems to be a recognition among the five regional leaders that the pace of their country’s development is proportional to the degree of regional cooperation. The agreements concluded through the consultative process reflect a commitment to deepening economic ties, strengthening mutual collaboration and addressing regional challenges through joint efforts. As a unified regional economic space and a common regional security framework, Central Asia can go a long way in promoting regional integration as well as playing a role in international affairs.

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*Dr Athar Zafar is a Senior Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal

Endnotes

[1] Saniya Sakenova, “Central Asian Foreign Ministers Meet to Strengthen Regional Cooperation and Unity,” The Astana Times, August 09, 2024, https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/central-asian-foreign-ministers-meet-to-strengthen-regional-cooperation-and-unity/, accessed August 12, 2024.

[2] Embassy of Uzbekistan in New Delhi, “The President of Uzbekistan becomes a holder of the Honorary Badge of the Heads of State of Central Asia,” https://www.uzbekembassy.in/the-president-of-uzbekistan-becomes-a-holder-of-the-honorary-badge-of-the-heads-of-state-of-central-asia/#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20regular,and%20mutual%20understanding%20between%20the, accessed August 12, 2024.

[3] Emin Aliyev, “President Ilham Aliyev addresses meeting of Heads of State of Central Asia and Republic of Azerbaijan in Astana,” trend news agency, August 09, 2024, https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3932225.html, accessed August 16, 2024

[4] Saniya Sakenova, “Central Asian Foreign Ministers Meet to Strengthen Regional Cooperation and Unity,” The Astana Times, August 09, 2024, https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/central-asian-foreign-ministers-meet-to-strengthen-regional-cooperation-and-unity/, accessed August 12, 2024.

[5] Kabar, “Tajik leader proposes to hold first meeting of Central Asian industry ministers next year in Dushanbe,” August 12, 2024, https://en.kabar.kg/news/tajik-leader-proposes-to-hold-first-meeting-of-central-asian-industry-ministers-next-year-in-dushanbe/, accessed August 13, 2024.

[6] Embassy of Uzbekistan in New Delhi, “The President of Uzbekistan becomes a holder of the Honorary Badge of the Heads of State of Central Asia,” https://www.uzbekembassy.in/the-president-of-uzbekistan-becomes-a-holder-of-the-honorary-badge-of-the-heads-of-state-of-central-asia/#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20regular,and%20mutual%20understanding%20between%20the, accessed August 12, 2024.

[7] News Central Asia, “5th Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia in Tajikistan – Outcomes,” September 15, 2023, https://www.newscentralasia.net/2023/09/15/5th-consultative-meeting-of-the-heads-of-state-of-central-asia-in-tajikistan-outcomes/, accessed August 16, 2024.

[8] The Astana Times, “Central Asia Consultative Meeting Advances Cooperation in Key Sectors, Expert Says,” August 12, 2024, https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/central-asia-consultative-meeting-advances-cooperation-in-key-sectors-expert-says/, accessed August 14, 2024.

[9] The Astana Times, “The Renaissance of Central Asia: Towards Sustainable Development and Prosperity,” 8 August 2024, https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/the-renaissance-of-central-asia-towardssustainable-development-and-prosperity/, accessed 16 August 2024

[10] President of the Republic of Tajikistan, “Participation in the sixth Consultative Meeting of Heads of State of Central Asia,” August 09, 2024, https://www.president.tj/event/news/46802, accessed August 16, 2024.

[11] Saniya Sakenova, “Tokayev Outlines Central Asia’s Vision for Regional Cooperation and Growth,” The Astana Times, August 09, 2024, https://astanatimes.com/2024/08/tokayev-outlines-central-asias-vision-for-regional-cooperation-and-growth/, accessed August 13, 2024.