Indian Council of World Affairs

Abstract: Political parties in Sri Lanka have geared up for the Presidential election, which is taking place on 21 September 2024.  In a closely contested election, the SJB candidate Sajith Premadasa may have a better chance of winning the election given the support extended by the Tamil parties to his candidature and the party’s vote base in Sinhala community.  

Political parties in Sri Lanka have geared up for the Presidential election, which is taking place on 21September 2024. The incumbent President, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is contesting as an independent candidate and has sought the support of political parties other than his parent party, the United National Party (UNP), to continue as the President of Sri Lanka to implement the economic recovery agenda. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) candidate Sajith Premadasa, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) are other prominent contenders in this election. The ruling party, the SLPP, surprisingly chose to back its candidate instead of extending support to incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, who led the government in crisis. The party once again has put its faith in the Rajapaksa legacy despite the economic and political fallout the country witnessed in 2022 under the leadership of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the uncle of Namal Rajapaksa. The manifestos released by the main candidates to reach out to the electorate in this election touched upon various issues important for Sri Lanka and also offered probable solutions. Therefore, this brief will look at how the leading parties/candidates promised to address some of the main contemporary issues faced by the island nation, including economic recovery and development, accountability and reconciliation, and balanced foreign policy. 

On Economic Recovery and Development 

The 2022 economic crisis and possible solutions for economic recovery and sustainable development, with a focus on investment in various sectors, have taken centre stage in the campaign of all the candidates in the run-up to the election. The foremost candidates have highlighted their agendas for economic recovery and their views on important IMF deal. The incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s manifesto,“Puluwan Sri Lanka”(Five Years of Winning the Country with Ranil), outlined the priorities of the five-year plan, including “easing the cost of living, creating jobs, offering tax relief, promoting economic growth and implementing the Aswesuma and Urumaya programmes.”[i]He also promised, as a first step, one lakh new sources of employment if he wins the election. The manifesto also promised land rights to two million persons through the “Urumaya” initiative and the "people's sector" by providing land to all as well as a house. It also promised to establish a "National Wealth Fund" and an active cooperative business sector. 

Unlike other candidates, the incumbent President has much to project in implementing policies aimed at sustainable economic recovery and development. The $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package, $3.5 billion financial support from India and $10 billion debt treatment agreement signed with bilateral creditors, such as the Official Creditors Committee (OCC) and China, are projected as significant achievements under his leadership to address the economic crisis of the last two years. Therefore, based on the progress made so far, Ranil Wickremesinghe has been appealing to voters not to break the economic recovery process. He said, “His government has set a 10-year phase to get the country entirely out of the economic crisis, and if it breaks at any time, there will be no recovery.”[ii]He also questioned his opponents Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake about the reluctance shown to lead the country in crisis and to join his government to find a solution to the economic crisis[iii]. 

The JVP candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s 230-page manifesto titled “A Prosperous Nation, A Beautiful Life” focused on reaching out to the youth by promising to build a manufacturing and productive economy.[iv]The party is not in agreement with the way the IMF programme has been implemented by the incumbent government. Therefore, the party has promised to re-negotiate the terms and conditions of the deal with the IMF “to implement a more robust and accurate programme to alleviate the hardship of the poor.”[v]It also emphasised the need to address the national debt by proposing a comprehensive debt audit to manage liabilities better.[vi]The manifesto also emphasised foreign investment in public-private and public joint ventures. The SJB candidate Sajit Premadasa ans the current leader of the opposition also took a similar position on the IMF deal. He promised to reopen negotiations with the IMF “to ease the financial burden on working-class people.”[vii]He promised to humanise the deal rather than derailing it by addressing the austerity measures that have accompanied the deal and are being implemented by the incumbent President, such as the tax and electricity hikes and domestic debt restructuring that hit the pension funds. His manifesto, titled “Towards an Advanced Social Market Economy,” also promised an “export-driven economy, manufacturing industry promotion, an independent public prosecutor to tackle corruption and strengthening the rule of law.”[viii]

The SLPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa also promised to “renegotiate certain terms of the IMF deal as it is not the only option but insisted that it’s a guideline.”[ix] Though he agreed with the need to increase the revenue of the government, he is not in agreement with imposing a tax burden on the common man and selling the national assets to boost the revenue. His manifesto titled Namal Dekma” (Namal’s Vision) also promised to turn the “grey economy” into a “white economy, by encouraging competitive bidding and transparency in procurement processes. Namal also promised to “double Sri Lanka’s GDP from its current $85 billion to $180 billion within the next decade.”[x]Developing Sri Lanka as a global hub for services and tourism is another promise made by the SLPP candidate. However, Ranil Wickremesinghe countered the opposition candidates’ stand to renegotiate terms and conditions of the IMF deal on the basis that the benchmarks of the deal cannot be renegotiated as the “IMF has not changed their position on benchmarks agreed to with any country.”[xi]

On Reconciliation and Accountability 

The year 2009 marked the military defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE), which fought a bitter war with the Sri Lankan state for a separate homeland. The post-war Sri Lanka’s reconciliation efforts since then have been closely monitored by the United Nations (UN) through various mechanisms and resolutions that emphasised devolution of power, political solutions to ethnic issues, establishment of truth-seeking and accountability mechanisms, as well as rebuilding and rehabilitation, among others. However, the effort towards reconciliation has not materialised and finding political solutions to the ethnic issue is still an important political issue in Sri Lanka. The upcoming election therefore once again has put the spotlight on ethnic issues, promoting candidates to offer policy solutions to address the issue of post-war reconciliation, truth and accountability. 

The incumbent President took a few initiatives to reach out to the ethnic Tamil minority after assuming office in 2022. He called for the All Party Conference (ARC) to discuss the ethnic issue and took steps to establish an independent Commission for Truth, Unity and Reconciliation to work towards transitional justice and post-conflict reconciliation. In line with the initiatives taken by his government, Ranil Wickremesinghe’s manifesto offered to build a society where citizens are not discriminated against or disadvantaged based on religion, language, etc. He also promised to address anti-religious incidents by enacting laws to prevent the occurrence of such incidents.[xii]But the lack of interest shown by the SLPP government in the last five years to conduct the Provincial Council (PC) elections despite the repeated appeals by the leader of Tamil parties has distanced the Tamil leadership from the incumbent government. In July 2023, members of Tamil civil society in the northern and eastern provinces of Sri Lanka wrote to the Indian Prime Minister to persuade President Wickremesinghe to conduct the PC elections that [xiii]ceased to function in the East in 2017 and the North in 2018. However, the President insisted several critical areas needed funding priority over the elections due to the economic crises.[xiv]Ranil Wickremesinghe supported the implementation of the 13^thamendment of the Constitution of Sri Lanka that devolved powers to the provinces but took the position that devolving police powers to the provinces will be decided by the new parliament.[xv] 

The JVP candidate highlighted the need for ethnic unity, stressing that it should be promoted through practical political actions rather than mere rhetoric.[xvi]The JVP, in the past, was not in favour of concessions to minority Tamils. However, in recent years, it has reached out to the Tamil community, particularly after the 2022 economic crisis and “Aragalaya” movement that led to the resignation of then-President Gotabaya. In the manifesto, the JVP candidate proposed to establish an Inter-Religious Council to resolve inter-religious issues and the expansion of the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission to address religious and racial extremism. The manifesto also promised to hold the PC and the local government elections within a year. 

The decision by the Ilangai Thamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), a main constituent of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), to support Sajith Premadasa at the Presidential election is a boost to the party. By supporting Sajith Premadasa, the main Tamil party is hoping to address the main issues faced by the community, which have not been addressed by successive governments since 2009.His manifesto promised to strengthen the truth and reconciliation mechanisms, such as the Office of National Unity and Reconciliation, the Office of Missing Persons and the Office for Reparations. The manifesto also promised to abolish the Prevention of Terrorism(temporary provisions) Act, a long-standing demand of the Sri Lankan Tamil parties and civil society groups of Sri Lanka. Sajit Premadasa further promised to implement the 13^th Amendment to the constitution, asserting that it is “not harmful to the country’s unity.”[xvii] 

The abolition of the executive presidency has been a poll issue for long. This time, the NPP, SJB and UNP promised the abolition of the executive presidency. But the NPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa took a position that the abolition of executive presidency needs a parliament approval and a referendum.[xviii]Therefore, according to him abolition of the executive presidency can’t be a popular slogan. On another important issue of accountability for the Easter Sunday attacks that took place in Sri Lanka in April 2019, which killed more than 250, the four candidates have promised to look into the issue. The Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCOI) was set up in September 2019 to look into the Easter Sunday attacks, and the report was submitted to the then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in February 2021.The JVP manifesto promised legal action on Easter Sunday attacks by prosecuting politicians and officials as per the Presidential Commission's recommendations. The SJB promised a Special Investigation Commission within three months if it wins the election, a hybrid commission comprising “foreign and local judges and investigators.”[xix]Combating corruption is another important issue touched upon by the leading candidates. Speedy implementation of the Anti-Corruption Act, passing of the Stolen Assets Recovery Bill, and a National Anti-Corruption Plan, are some of the promises made by the candidates.[xx] 

On Foreign Policy 

Since the economic recovery and attracting foreign investments for various infrastructure projects to rebuild the country have taken centre stage in this election, the four candidates have emphasised on balanced foreign policy. The incumbent President stressed the need for more Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) covering the whole of the Bay of Bengal, East Asia and Australia to promote more investments in Sri Lanka. The JVP manifesto emphasised on pursuing a ‘strong foreign policy that can ensure Sri Lanka’s good terms with all nations while protecting its sovereignty’.[xxi]The JVP candidate also pledged to selectively welcome foreign investors, especially in green energy[xxii]and a “foreign policy that will not lead to geopolitical tensions in the area.”[xxiii]The manifesto talks about National Security Foreign Policy that will look at political, economic and maritime diplomacy. The development of a comprehensive foreign policy document has also been promised to outline Sri Lanka’s strategic priorities. Anura Kumara Dissanayake further promised to cancel Adani Group’s wind power project in Sri Lanka if elected to power. The JVP sees the project as a “threat to the island nation’s energy sector sovereignty.”[xxiv]

The SJB candidate emphasised “a multi-aligned foreign policy, to be friends with all and enemies with none.”[xxv] The cornerstone of foreign policy, the manifesto mentions, will be the peaceful coexistence with immediate and regional neighbours devoid of military alliances. Promoting regional integration, rule-based order in the Indian Ocean and economic diplomacy as a core of the policy formulation are other important goals set by the SJB if it wins the election.”[xxvi]The Namal Rajapaksa manifesto stressed “independent foreign policy without aligning Sri Lanka with any foreign states or a global camp while maintaining friendly relations with all countries. It also emphasised that any foreign state intervention in the internal affairs of Sri Lanka will be promptly prevented to ensure independence.”[xxvii]

Conclusion 

This is a crucial election for Sri Lanka, as it will determine the future economic recovery process and development, the possibility of true reconciliation and Sri Lanka’s place in the ever-changing geopolitics of the region. It is a closely contested election, as the four leading candidates are able to draw considerable attention from the public. The manifestos of the candidates spelled out their stand on important issues of economy, politics and foreign policy. The incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe seems confident to win the trust of the people because of his efforts at economic recovery by leading the country in crisis. The SJB candidate, on the other hand, has the support of the Tamil ethnic minority parties as well as the support of parties representing the Hill Country Tamil community in Sri Lanka, a crucial vote base to win the election. Therefore, his prospects seem better compared with other candidates in the election fray if he can also garner votes from the majority Sinhala community. 

The JVP candidate is also giving a tough fight, given the party’s popularity among the youth and rural areas of Sri Lanka following the Aragalaya movement, a result of the 2022 economic crisis. The party is projecting itself as an alternative to the economic and political policies followed by the SLPP and the UNP leadership for decades. The fielding of Namal Rajapaksa, the youngest candidate to contest Sri Lankan Presidential elections, as the SLPP candidate took many by surprise, despite the setback the SLPP faced in 2022. He is confident of winning this election as he believes, “Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake came with serious, troubled pasts.”[xxviii]He is projecting himself as a “new-generation Rajapaksa who can offer modern and fresh thinking, ideology and nationalist policy that suits Sri Lanka.”[xxix]Nonetheless, it is uncertain if people are eager to give another chance to the Rajapaksa legacy. In this context, it remains to be seen who will win this complex and challenging election.

*****

*Dr. Samatha Mallempati, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA)
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.

Endnotes

[i]“Ranil Presents “Puluwan Sri Lanka' manifesto,”August 29, 2024, https://newsfirst.lk/2024/08/29/ranil-presents-puluwan-sri-lanka-manifesto.

[ii]Jamila Husain, “We have a 10 year phase, if it breaks there will be no recovery’’: Ranil,”September 16, 2024, https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/We-have-a-10-year-phase-if-it-breaks-there-will-be-no-recovery-Ranil/108-291797.

[iii]Ibid.

[iv] Daily News, “NPP launches election manifesto,”August 27, 2024, https://www.dailynews.lk/2024/08/27/admin-catagories/breaking-news/616880/npp-launches-election-manifesto/.

[v]Ibid

[vi] Ceylon Today, “Time for purpose-driven economic policies,”August 27, 2024, https://ceylontoday.lk/2024/08/27/time-for-purpose-driven-economic-policies/.

[vii]“Nothing will be derailed but everything would be humanized’ – Sajith on renegotiating IMF deal,”September 13, 2024, https://www.adaderana.lk/news.php?nid=101952.

[viii] Ibid

[ix]Jamila Husain, . Op.Cit .2

[x] Ibid

[xi]Economy Next, “Benchmarks of Sri Lanka’s IMF agreement cannot be changed: President,”August 07, 2024, https://economynext.com/benchmarks-of-sri-lankas-imf-agreement-cannot-be-changed-president-175860/.

[xii] Centre for Policy Alternatives, “Summary of Policy Proposals by Candidates for the 2024 Presidential Election,”https://www.cpalanka.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/The-Manifestos-on-Accountability-Truth-and-Reconciliation.pdf.

[xiii]D.B.S. Jeyaraj, “Sri Lankan Tamil Political Leadership Criticised by Tamil Civil Society in Letter to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Seeking Early Provincial Council Elections to the North and East,”July 27, 2023, https://dbsjeyaraj.com/dbsj/?p=82398.

[xiv] “Sri Lanka’s Fate Would Remain Tragic Even with Local Government Elections Amid Economic Recovery,”July 20, 2024, https://www.news.lk/news/political-current-affairs/item/36591-sri-lanka-s-fate-would-remain-tragic-even-with-local-government-elections-amid-economic-recovery.

[xv] “Ranil Wickremesinghe rejects full implementation of 13th Amendment in manifesto”, September 05, 2024, https://www.tamilguardian.com/content/ranil-wickremesinghe-rejects-full-implementation-13th-amendment-manifesto.

[xvi] The Morning, “NPP manifesto launch: AKD pledges to abolish Exec. Presidency,”August 27, 2024, https://www.themorning.lk/articles/nICGrA5xWVkoWJxxDSek.

[xvii]“Sajith to implement 13th Amendment to the Constitution,” Newswire, September 15, 2024, https://www.newswire.lk/2024/09/15/sajith-to-implement-13th-amendment-to-the-constitution/.

[xviii]Jamila Husain,“Op.Cit.2

[xix]“Easter Sunday attacks five years on: Appointed mechanisms & Election promises,”April 19, 2024, https://srilankabrief.org/easter-sunday-attacks-five-years-on-appointed-mechanisms-election-premisses/.

[xx] CPA, “Summary of Policy Proposals by Candidates for the 2024 Presidential Election,”September 14, 2024, https://www.cpalanka.org/summary-of-policy-proposals-by-candidates-for-the-2024-presidential-election/.

[xxi] The Morning, “NPP manifesto launch: AKD pledges to abolish Exec. Presidency,”August 27, 2024, https://www.themorning.lk/articles/nICGrA5xWVkoWJxxDSek.

[xxii] The Edition MV, “Sri Lanka Marxists eye selective foreign capital if win presidency,”August 26, 2024, https://edition.mv/islam/35632.

[xxiii] Times Online, “AKD launches manifesto with pledge to abolish EP, enact new constitution,”August 26, 2024, https://sundaytimes.lk/online/news-online/AKD-launches-manifesto-with-pledge-to-abolish-EP-enact-new-constitution/2-1146669.

[xxiv]“Anura Kumara to ‘definitely cancel’ Adani Group’s energy project if elected, “September 16, 2024, https://www.lankaweb.com/news/items/2024/09/16/anura-kumara-to-definitely-cancel-adani-groups-energy-project-if-elected/.

[xxv] SJB Manifesto, https://www.sajith.lk/safeguard-the-nation/foreign-affairs-and-commercial-alliances.

[xxvi] Ibid

[xxvii] Namal Rajapaksa Manifesto, https://namalconnect.com//full-manifesto.

[xxviii]Jamila Husain, “The other three candidates come with serious, troubled pasts, I do not-Namal,”September 03, 2023, https://www.dailymirror.lk/top-story/The-other-three-candidates-come-with-serious-troubled-pasts-I-do-not-Namal/155-290897.

[xxix]Ibid